Kenya Insights

Tag: Raila Odinga

  • In Raila Odinga As NASA Flagbearer, Jubilee Hit With Worst Nightmare

    In Raila Odinga As NASA Flagbearer, Jubilee Hit With Worst Nightmare

    Raila cannot win any election, he’s the weakest candidate, he’s unelectable, he’s polarizing, he’s a perennial loser, Raila will never be the President of Kenya. Same song just a different stage, Raila has just been named as the NASA flagbearer, and the familiar demonizing tunes of his name unsurprisingly hit the airwaves.

    Honestly, when the idea of opposition uniting was conceptualized, It was pretty obvious who would take the mantle, to NASA supporters, It was never going to be anyone else but Raila, a reality they carried through despite hiccups. As for Jubilee, Raila was the marked man, but they prayed day and night for things to turn up otherwise until the nightmare became a reality when he was named.

    Only a fool would root for a stronger opponent when entering a boxing ring with a total assurance of blackout in the first few seconds. As an enemy, you try as much not to show your opponent your fears and point out their strengths. Instead, you point out their weaknesses tricking them into being their strengths.

    NASA Pentagon making an entrance into the naming of the flagbearer event at Uhuru Park

    In 2013, ICC gave UhuRuto a huge platform to campaign and mobilize their ethnic blocs to come out in large numbers, and they sure did in a bid to save their sons from mzungu noose instigated by Raila, that was the lying line that sold the stale bread. Fast forward to 2017; Jubilee is yet to settle on a campaign platform even though hanging on their development record. Voters have shifted in mind mindset looking for results-oriented leadership. Under the last four years of jubilee, health, unemployment, the high cost of living amongst other recession factors has hit the country and citizens making informed ballot choices of the nominations are anything to go by.

    Jubilee studied all the NASA candidates, their potentials and the one thing that was clear, only Raila posed the greatest threat to disruption of the system. In a mind game war, ridicule and belittling the idea of Raila candidacy took precedence; the fallacy was pushed and adopted without proper chewing. It is unsurprising you’ll meet intoxicated minds saying Raila is a run over for Jubilee without clear explanation. And if any you’ll be treated to he has lost previous elections, Jubilee knows his game plan he’ll be defeated again.

    Defeating Raila is easier on paper but I’ll tell you why from the outside Jubilee is confident but deeply inside terribly shaken to near wetting their pants. Elections are won on two fronts, voter turnout, and economic mobilization. It’s on these principles that NASA had to crack their brains to settle on a neutral candidate who would strike it in the middle.

    Unveiling of the official NASA logo

    In 2007 elections where the outcome of elections turned violent, Raila believed his victory was stolen, even though Judge Kriegler’s findings didn’t single it out, the study pointed to a bungled victory for Kibaki. In 2013, again Raila claimed he was short changed, and the matter went to the Supreme Court. To read the pattern, Raila’s opponents may have perfected the art of stealing his victory and using the profiling to get away with it. Branding Raila as a perennial and whining loser is a threat to credible elections as players would quickly invest in the demonizing game to get away with the shambolic election.

    August general election comes with crucial electoral reforms that are meant to make elections rigging proof and this should worry Jubilee if they had fraud as part of their winning strategies. Parallel tallying and confirmation by the court that results are legitimized as soon as they’re announced by the returning officers closing the loophole of results manipulation changes the games. The peace of the country as it stands is embedded in the credibility of the polls, for this reason, IEBC must ensure a tamper-proof election.

    It is laughable when veteran Jubilee supporters allude that they’d vote for an alternative NASA candidate other than Raila, this is just hot air, dynamics of voting especially in presidential elections remains the same with tribal card taking a toll. Even if NASA gave a Mudavadi/ Kalonzo ticket, there wouldn’t have been any substantial shift in support, and that’s a simple fact.

    NASA had to go for a candidate with considerate support but most importantly one who would cause serious voter turnout and with guaranteed voting bloc. Kalonzo carries a significant block of Kamba votes, but his ability to fully energize his base seemed shaky, he’s currently facing distinction threats from Chap Chap’s Alfred Mutua. After all, he has been a vice-president, a running mate, and a presidential candidate. Yet he has never fully delivered the Kamba vote.

    When Kalonzo ran on his own, in 2007, he polled 879,903 votes against Raila’s 4,352,993. Of this, only 153,117 votes were from outside Eastern. More interesting, the total vote he got in Eastern — 726,786 — was only 63 percent of the total number of voters in Ukambani. He was unable to convince over 30 per cent of Ukambani.

    Mr. Musalia Mudavadi of ANC, an early favorite, does not hold the Western vote. He also seems to have little support outside western Kenya, despite his name recognition across the country. In 2013, he managed only 353,858 votes in Western, a region with 1,214,285 voter turnout numbers. Outside of his western political base, he got only 130,123 votes. In short, Mr. Raila Odinga of ODM got more than two times what Mr. Mudavadi got in Western.

    People lie, numbers don’t. August general election will only be one based on voters turn out. Raila can guarantee a formidable turnout that would send jubilee into serious strategizing. Nyanza, Western, Eastern, and Coast remains vital vote taps that NASA must get out to guarantee a round one win. Raila is also the only candidate amongst the principals who has the potential to attract support outside his background bloc, and this has been proven. His strengths ran way above any thought of combination, and it is for this reason jubilee would’ve tried all means to see the coalition tear apart or have anyone else being flagbearer being the candidate.

    If indeed Jubilee isn’t scared of Raila and sees him as the weakest candidate and a guaranteed run over then they can as well go for an early celebration, save the energy and money for campaigning instead just sent back home and wait for the next Uhuru’s inauguration but they won’t and this the point where the real threat of a Raila candidacy hits everyone. A united opposition can’t be wished away; it sent away Moi, has been sending away veteran dictators across Africa and Jubilee isn’t immortal. It is games time ladies and gentlemen. El Classico!

  • Third Force Politics, Illusion That Stands Zero Chance In Kenyan Space

    Third Force Politics, Illusion That Stands Zero Chance In Kenyan Space

    Desperate moments call for desperate measures, the former chief executive of the Committee of Experts; Dr. Ekuro Aukot was once a relevant man who enjoyed the limelight. Those days are gone, and he is the exact opposite now. Am told he is going to vie for the presidency in Thirdway Alliance Kenya; a movement he purports to be representing a better alternative to rescue Kenya from tribalism and poor leadership.
    Dr. Ekuro is a respected academician who can do something better, not representing himself as a busy body desperate for a government job. There is no place for the third force in the current political layout, in politics, you are either for or against something. You can’t challenge the government and the opposition at the same time. That is total confusion.

    These are futile attempts that were once harbored by the likes of Raila’s sycophant James Orengo, Martha Karua, Koigi wa Mwere and so on. These individuals had their dreams crushed by politicians who had deep pockets and ability to mobilize their tribes to rally behind them. Ekuro should not flatter himself thinking that the times have changed and Kenyans have learnt.

    Kenyans never learn, especially if your intention is to desperately criticize the government and opposition to get a job. It’s no secret this guy applied to be appointed a cabinet secretary, why then should he turn to campaign through his Twitter handle to discredit the same administration he wanted to sever in? What changed and what difference would he bring in case his midday dreams came true?
    Characters like him are known, trying so hard to be political saints, but they represent nothing fresh other their names. This guy cannot decline cabinet appointment neither can he decline to be ODM/Cord’s legal adviser. He is not any different from the guy from Emunyulia (Baraka Muluka) who does nothing other than criticizing his former boss, Raila Odinga.

    Muluka is so desperate for a government job to the extent of dreaming of President Uhuru passing by his village and have his elders request the president to appoint their son (Muluka) to work in his administration. ‘Kizuri chajiuza, kibaya chajitangaza’ the Swahilis say. PLO Lumumba tried this, spoke all the vocs, got tired and hid, Tony Gachoka was on a mouth running spree; spoke every political nonsense for and against both sides of the political divides. He got no job and went underground.

    Ekuro should identify what he stands for, the sad story he is telling of being a son of a nomad from Turkana is not any from that told by the hustler, DP William Ruto. No one pays attention to that. And is he joining politics because some folks have been in the game for a minute? It’s your relevance that will determine your longevity.

    Enough said third force has no place in the current politics, even Ababu who had or has similar dreams got lost in the air and landed in the arms of an old granny Dr. Julia Ojiambo to bring ‘change.’ The battle lines have been drawn, and the 2017 polls are going to be a two-horse race between President Kenyatta and the Former Prime Minister, Raila Odinga.

    That’s the sad fact, even ANC Leader Musalia Mudavadi who finished third in previous general elections is already indicating his willingness to join hands with Cord. If you can’t beat them you join them, Musalia is former Vice President and Deputy Prime Minister of Kenya, who is Ekuro? He is a political nobody who has never beaten even a village elder in a political contest. What has he to unseat Uhuru or end Raila’s long time in politics?

  • William Ole Ntimama Dies Peacefully In His Sleep

    William Ole Ntimama Dies Peacefully In His Sleep

    The late William Ole Ntimama
    The late William Ole Ntimama

    The former cabinet minister also a long-time friend to the opposition leader and recently confessed Jubilee supporter, William Ole Ntimama has died aged 86.

    Reports say the Maa’s political maestro passed on peacefully in his sleep in what the family describe as natural cause.

    As a former Narok North Member of Parliament, Ntimama was an influential Maasai leader who was widely respected—having been in government and politics for long.

    He was last seen in public at State House, Nairobi two weeks ago when he led a group of Maasai leaders to join the Jubilee Party.

    How body was taken to Lee Funeral Home Friday morning.

    From Kenya Insights we express our condolences to friends and family of the late minister. RIP

  • Raila’s Good Days are Behind Him, The Luo Nation Should Focus On His Successor

    Raila’s Good Days are Behind Him, The Luo Nation Should Focus On His Successor

    CORD Leader Raila Odinga (Pic Courtesy)
    CORD Leader Raila Odinga (Pic Courtesy)

    By Nicholas Olambo

    While many have described the Former Prime Minister Raila as the kingmaker, the enigma of Kenyan politics, crowd puller and the best player in confrontational politics who is never short of surprises, Raila’s best moments are behind him as Prof. Makau Mutua puts it. I don’t think Tinga has more cards close to his chest to pull, his opponents have studied and known him. In fact, President Uhuru Kenyatta is causing him sleepless nights via proxies. What if he comes direct?

    The former premier must be acknowledged for nurturing many politicians most of whom have turned to be his sworn enemies. He has not nurtured any from his back yard, Luo Nyanza despite Kenyan politics being so tribal. No one from Nyanza has received Raila’s blessings in case he quits the political stage which can’t be too long after 2017 polls. From where I sit, possibilities of ‘Luo Nation’ not voting as a block in post-Raila era are extremely high.

    Only Kidero comes out as the Luo politician with the might to take after him, but sycophants and Raila followers from his native Central Nyanza are not ready to back any politician from South Nyanza where the Nairobi Governor, Dr Evan Kidero hails from. Raila has every right to run for president in the coming 2017 polls but after three unsuccessful shots, the experienced politician must also think of passing the Burton. Right now he comes out as one who thinks he is the only Luo who can be president.

    As much as it’s said that Raila has been betrayed by the same individuals whose political careers he helped built, he must change his tactics and try new avenues. Politics is a game of numbers, but Raila has been unable to keep his house intact, he has been busy putting off rebellion fires in his party when his opponents are planning for 2017 polls. Money also plays a great deal, and Jubilee is seriously moneyed, but Odinga has been accused of sitting on the wallet when his foot soldiers are being ‘bought’ like toffees. So many broke politicians stand for nothing but gullible to shift allegiance for the love of the money.

    Opportunity only comes once in a lifetime they say, and Raila let the presidency slip from his hands in 2007 and that moment will never come again. Believers in the say like Alassane Ouattara of Ivory Coast never allowed his win slip away from him; he fought to the very end and took over from Laurent Gbagbo, a dictator who is now facing war crime charges at the Internal Criminal Court (ICC). Raila was fixed through the deal that saw the formation of a grand coalition government that he shared with the then president, Mwai Kibaki. The deal was the last nail in the ‘coffin’ of his presidential ambitions.

    They say history repeats itself, and Kibaki became President at the age of 74, and Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria became president on the fourth attempt. Raila may be hanging his hopes on these thin and weak threads, but the generational change in Kenyan politics punches another big hole on Odinga’s dreams.

    The incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta was elected the fourth president at the age of 51, this kind of generational change makes it hard for him to be elected to succeed Mr. Kenyatta.

    He has now and after 2017 polls to give direction to the Luo nation that has strongly been with him through his political career especially the south, many will be waiting to see if Central Nyanza can back a leader from the South.

    This article expresses the author’s opinion only. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Kenya Insights or its Editors. We welcome opinion and views on topical issues. Email: [email protected]

  • NDOLO: Peeling Back The Mask, Ababu Namwamba’s Autopsy Report Is Out

    NDOLO: Peeling Back The Mask, Ababu Namwamba’s Autopsy Report Is Out

    By Benjie Ndolo

    Politics is as Barack Obama would call it, silly season but in Kenya, its silliest of seasons and it would seem all year(s) long! With 2017 fast approaching all manner of games, trivia, lies and stories are being told to a bemused public. Known agents of Jubilee are standing authoritatively in CoRD press conferences waxing lyrical about political parties, communities and democracy.

    This is more than ridiculous.

    Ababu’s games that have been known to only but a few over the years, have progressed and now reached their crescendo and presumably climaxed. But who is this Mr Namwamba?
    I love Kenyan psychology. Simple tricks are played on the unsuspecting public to hoodwink commoners and emasculate the truth. But the truth is always hiding in plain sight and people have reputations and histories.

    The rumor mill in Kenya is seldom wrong, yet purveyors of impunity will lambast truth tellers and dismissively call them ‘rumor mongers’…it’s a technique well tried, tested and perfected by Moi in the KANU years who would dismiss Wangari Maathai (a great woman) as a ‘mad woman’ to the amusement and roaring laughter of wananchi at a public holiday rally.

    It is through rumors that we knew Ouko had disappeared. It is through rumors we are aware Ababu was not trustworthy at the University of Nairobi and reportedly did his exams under police escort for his own safety.

    During the swearing-in ceremony of early 2008, the entire Kenya was treated to pseudo comedy from a young first time MP swearing allegiance to Raila as the “elected president”, never mind Mwai Kibaki commander-in-chief was in the House, also for swearing in. Most thought “…wow what a loyal junior this one.” I watched carefully, on the face of it quite remarkable and cute but as they say time reveals everything.

    The ‘establishment’ elements too have eyes and more ears, and they had taken note of this fellow. It wasn’t long before his name was all over the ‘maize scandal’ and a curious dalliance with Agriculture minister William Ruto keenly noted by all and sundry. But because politicians assume and ‘know’ that Kenyans are foolish, Ababu continued to front the ‘I am more ODM than anyone’ mask and to talk tough and to baptize himself “Generali.” And Raila allowed it.

    Tinga wants to be president so bad, and is so under siege from many corners of the establishment that he’s always overwhelmed, outfoxed and in crisis. While knowing Ababu was compromised, he kept playing games with him, feeding him cookies and stroking his ego until ‘Men-in-Black’ happened on his watch. The party had been infiltrated and the take-over had to be stopped, violently and in broad daylight.

    Meanwhile, Ababu had been chastised, rebuked and thrown out of the leadership of the Legal Affairs Committee in parliament and no media channel has cared to look carefully at his record and facts. Somehow he weaved his way as an ‘ODM loyalist’ and landed the plum position of chairperson Parliamentary Accounts Committee PAC a most cherished and coveted perch.

    Alas, screwed up investigations ensued on sensitive topics (e.g., Hustler Jet and guess who the subject was?!) before Ababu again was bundled out in ignominy on crazy allegations of bribe taking and finger pointing in the same committee but not before going to his party leaders house to brief him on goings-on and while at it taped him secretly!

    Recently, social media smoked out Ababu and mainstream media followed suit asking where is the ODM SG? Without breaking a sweat and being the liar he has proven to be the young politician quickly put out that he’s been on paternity leave, has young children and a young wife and all is honky dory.

    Except that it’s not! Soon he clarified that he’s been absent because his conscience is so clear about IEBC that he doesn’t accept the unlawful methods of street demonstrations…after which he called the press to assert that he is not a cry baby, before finally declaring that he is frustrated upon realizing that his office has no powers and that the “gun he was given has no bullets!” All this, in a span of 6 weeks.
    Kenyans like me are tired.

    We are tired of rubbish. We abhor tribal politics and the naked manipulation, upending, blackmail and fallacy that go with it. We are well aware that our childish political culture impoverishes our people. We are tired of a lazy media that chooses to focus on Ababu carrying a mwiko and printing new tee shirts for his villagers than digging into the heart and core of issues.

    Theatrics! We are tired of impunity. Of grown men, so scared like little children, unable to muster the courage to walk out of a party (any party) they fundamentally disagree with but choose to sit tight and serve two masters. We are tired of Tumbocracy masquerading as Democracy. Political players don’t care what the political parties act says, they don’t read the constitution they only want chopper rides, bags of money and big 4X4s to dazzle peasants in the constituency.

    After almost 10 years, no Kenyan can identify one solid legislation crafted, drafted and advocated by Ababu Namwamba, nor any policy direction he pushed as minister or otherwise. Kenyan politics is about tricks, lies, deception and gimmicks. This must stop. Ababu is so busted. Fare thee well.

    The writer is a social commentator and a governance adviser

    This article expresses the author’s opinion only. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Kenya Insights or its Editors. We welcome opinion and views on topical issues. Email:[email protected]

  • AKINYI: Thankless Brat, Raila Made Ababu from Nothing to Something

    AKINYI: Thankless Brat, Raila Made Ababu from Nothing to Something

    Ababu and Raila sharing a light moment during an ODM function
    Ababu and Raila sharing a light moment during an ODM function

    By Bel Akinyi

    The hypocrisy in the political corridors today in Kenya has gutted me. Someone once said, man made money and money made man mad, and this is absolute genius. Political lightweights are flying all over the ring throwing empty punches into the air, making the utmost yet vain roars.

    Jubilee has made it clear that 2017 is going to be about money, they’ve set aside billions, possibly stolen from the public kitty and about or already making it rain. Malnourished politicians are streaming in for brown envelopes. Recently, New Ford Kenya dissolved their party to join Jubilee, an openly money motivated move.

    To the point at hand, it’s laughable and embarrassing, insulting to natural intelligence when a once thought to be brilliant politician turned bluff of century Ababu Namwamba, deprecates and rubbish off Raila political prowess.

    First, Ababu’s approach is cliché, and he’s using a script that has been used by many; get in Raila circle, stick around like a leech, gain political mileage, start rebelling, cook an excuse to bolt out, call Raila names. I mean you couldn’t shock us with anything distinctive?

    Ababu has been running up and down calling Raila names, saying how undemocratic and undermining he’s been to him. Now Ababu sit down your four eyes and let me school you and jog your memory. Ababu is who he is in political scale because of Raila, and he can deny it as much as a grown person refusing ever suckling his mother’s breast.

    Ababu in Statehouse when he led a group of MPs from Western to hold talks with President Uhuru and DP Ruto
    Ababu in Statehouse when he led a group of MPs from Western to hold talks with President Uhuru and DP Ruto

    We all remember the controversial swearing in where defiant Ababu declined to pay allegiance to Kibaki instead he did on Raila, and that’s when he caught the nation’s attention and when his political star in the national sky went on.

    In the coalition government, Raila awarded Ababu with a ministerial post, but the man with the mouthful of Ingokho now will deny that. Ababu was awarded a lucrative committee in Parliament PAC, courtesy of Raila and he was swimming in oil, he’s said to have been paid off in millions to throw under the bus, PAC report on Ruto’s hustler’s jet that cost taxpayers millions. Ababu has enjoyed political privileges courtesy of Raila he can’t deny that.

    Despite revolt from insiders and many party supporters, Raila gave Ababu a chance and was delivered ODM’s top most authoritative position and was named the Secretary General. And yet this man still grieves of having been played in ODM. I asked this before, and I’ll ask again, did Ababu want Raila to give him his lungs to feel content.

    On a fair note, it’s okay if a young man as Ababu has bigger political ambitions. However, it’s more significant to play smart as in politics isn’t any standard game. Respect the rules of power, don’t punch a wall and expect the wall to get hurt.

    Raila leads Ababu in the good old days
    Raila leads Ababu in the good old days

    Pursue your ambitions Ababu, but don’t insult people who nurtured you, respect is paramount, in Africa, and the young are bound to respect the elders. It wouldn’t hurt or make you less of a man if you only said “Mr Odinga, I’m thankful for the time I’ve been with you, I’ve learnt a lot, and I think we no longer share identical political agendas, and it’s time for me to move on to the next phase of my political career.” It wouldn’t harm you Ababu.

    By Bel Akinyi is a Political Science student at Melbourne University, Australia.
    Twitter: @BelAkinyii

    This article expresses the author’s opinion only. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Kenya Insights or its Editors. We welcome opinion and views on topical issues. Email:[email protected]