Category: Politics

 

As a billionaire, Raila is set for a retirement to his vast empire. While he was the NASA candidate, this election as drawn was beyond his indivual character. Kenyans wanted a change, things weren’t going the way they ought to be under Jubilee who served not meals of mystery to The livelihood of many Kenyans. But the high hopes seem dead with declaration of Uhuru as president which means more years of Jubilee tasteless rule. A petition challenging Uhuru’s win has been filed but if we’re to speculate ruling from the history then we might as well hope for the best but brace for The worst.

With Raila out of The picture what’s next for Kenya? What position are we left in. With majority stakes in bith legislative houses, Jubilee will swallow The opposition influence. Raila has been one of The best opposition leaders in our times, a blessing in disguise. If left unchecked, Jubilee can be a menace. If Raila who single handedly holds regimes into account exits the political picture then his shoes will be left unfilled and Kenyans will be literally left in The cold.

The repercussions of Hon. Raila Amollo Odinga ‘Loss’ in recently concluded sham Elections ever in Kenya history and the price to pay is more than we can afford.

Voter Apathy has hit the edge. Voter turnout in the year’s election was more with 20% and voter register piled up with more 36% voters which amounted to 19.6million an increase with over 700,000. This was historic purposefully because they believed it was this time or never will their dream of Change of Government which was scandalous with Corruption, Extra Judicial Killings and too many injustices to mention. The D-Day ambulances transported ill eligible voters from hospital wards, they never wanted to miss and mess this country for every vote counts. With a 78% voter turn out, the hopes and stakes in this election were high. What it has become has killed spirits and trust in the electoral system in Kenya.

From counting of results to Transmission to National Tallying Centre became Sodom and Gomorrah and 11th August on a Friday close to midnight unexpectedly Uhuru Kenyatta was announced winner despite evident malpractices that bumped the outcome.It was an election for Uhuru Kenyatta to loose with a margin, Opposition strongholds recorded highest voter turnouts, historically Some of President Uhuru strongholds an example Embu County in Central Kenya gave Opposition Candidate Raila 22% unlike before in 2013 where he only garnered 5%. Elections in Kenya have had a predetermined results pattern. If this is the case, many Kenyans are losing hopes in the electoral system. It really doesn’t make sense to wait for five years to line up to cast a vote on a leader already selected by dark forces. Why waste time to vote while machine appoints the president? A general feeling.

The election outcome was and has always been predetermined between Electoral Body IEBC and the Ruling government provided Raila is on the ballot in support of World Super powers America just to state a few who are phobic of his possible government.For the first time, America firm won Construction tender of Nairobi-Mombasa superhighway under Jubilee government and fear of their tender getting revoked when Odinga takes the throne was immense and might have led to influencing of Uhuru Kenyatta win. It’s not just the US, Western countries and observers, rushed to give the election a view bill of health before the proceeds were concluded. Carter Centre, EU Mission are amongst the observant groups reconsidering earlier statement will raising concerns over the transmission process.

Following the outcomes some groups and organizations are Collecting signatures to boycott all Presidential Elections from next Election, it’s a waste of time and public resources when Voices of Dictators are heard more by Electoral body IEBC than voices of the electorates.Some are petitioning change of constitution we become a Kingdom led by King, hereditary leadership. Boycotting of next General election will be a reality, a big blow to claimed democracy in this Nation.The credibility of Electoral body IEBC has been totally buried alive and I don’t think ever again will Kenyans have faith in any Electoral body even if the current is disbanded.

Media Freedom has been sabotaged. From Tallying exercise and thereafter, mainstream media has been the Government mouthpiece and so two-way traffic, scratch my back I scratch your back.Media is to report public opinion and speak for the public but this has not been the case. Government through Information Communication Technology (ICT) CS earlier on threatened media houses not to have Parallel Tallying Centres which possibly they would announce results not concurrently with the Electoral body which is public interest always to be ahead. Genuinely to say, mainstream media played the biggest role in the electoral fraud. Like in all authoritarian regimes, we’re most likely to see a severe attack on the freedom of the press. This will give the government monopoly of controlling narratives with a severely mutilated media. The media has been deformed from being the public’s watchdog to the power elites and government watchdog and puppets. Crawling credibility.

Back to Social media, freedom of expression has been limited as many including bloggers have been threatened, some arrested and charged in court for hitting Government with reality considered ‘inciting’ sentiments.During Presidential Debate which only Raila responded to, he pledged to protect Social media users and mainstream media being they are exercising Freedom of expression. Social media is most likely to be a victim of voices clampdown. We’ve already seen some insane gagging legislations from the previous Jubilee government, we’re most likely to see more stiff and clamping laws. Social media has bee n an effective public eye on the government, the two have never blended well and her will.

Oppressive the Legislation by use of Tyranny of Numbers which has just begun as Aden Duale former Majority leader and possibly will retain his position has admitted impeaching Controversial Auditor General Ouko as his first assignment.Auditor General Ouko has been the man trying to unmask Eurobond saga one of the grand corruption that’s haunting Jubilee government, he has since been an obstacle.The government doesn’t need ‘enemic’ intelligent minds but just simple men and women who do only paper work and says no evil.Being that this time round Jubilee Legislators outnumbers opposition’s, Constitution manipulation will be vigorous to favor their interest.Remember these are the same people who opposed the amendment of the new constitution in 2010 hence manipulation of the constitution will be rampant provided they have the Tyranny of Numbers.

The Same script is currently influencing People of South Africa, the outcry of citizens does away with President Jacob Juma as a matter of Corruption and ruthless governance but he has slipped after winning Vote of No Confidence in Parliament because his party has the Tyranny of numbers.His legislators are protecting the party and not the people, they are listening to the voice of the party and not the voice of the People they represent. It is not a secret that Jubilee leadership greatly opposed the new constitution of 2010. With majority numbers, Kenya is most likely to go into a referendum to amend the document. Kenyatta, i wouldn’t be surprised if he seeks to extend his terms.

Ethnic Profiling and Tribal hatred have been a stressor for a period now.Power inheritance or circulation between two communities(Kikuyus and Kalenjins) has been of greater concern and threat to National Cohesion.Provided these two communities have the highest population in Kenya, Odinga would have been a buffer in tribal hatred. The bitter truth is the violence of 2017 is ethnic based, the Luos were singled out in the police terror. It didn’t shock from comments that some of the rival community members saw the brutality justifiable. Jubilee campaigned on a national unity agenda only to work in reverse in these targeted missions. Ethnic thinking and political correctness are really blinding and misfortune in Kenya. Intellectuals have become ethnic bigots and apologists. Last few days have exposed clearly the hatred, bigotry and supremacist tendencies Kenyans hide under smiling face for different communities.

Police Impunity has been on rising, protected by the same government to carry out injustices, Extra judicial killings on Outspoken and anti government personalities which include civil society have been facing the wrath.”The government only kill criminals” words from Police spokesperson.Recently Peaceful Post Election Protests led to the death of 25 people including the 9yrs old girl and 6months old infant which Police fabricates to have been Criminals and 107 Casualties in Opposition strongholds.Helter Skelter killings have become police norm, Moi era it was worst but again on rising on the current Uhuru regime, unlike Kibaki era. Police(Flying Squad) and other security personnel Kenya Defense Forces(KDF) are entities who operate on ORDER, not WILL and it’s government that gives Order.Not sooner will this end as already Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC) and AfriCOG two Independent Civil society have been de-registered by CEO of NGO Board Fazul Muhammad over tax evasion and illegal operation allegations amidst the crisis of ongoing Extrajudicial killings to Peaceful protestors as a result of the fraudulent election.

These two bodies are the most active and the only eligible to defend Common citizens from injustices and file petitions in court.We have Election crisis, they were on the process to file a petition in court to find justice in recently concluded elections which government would have been on the losing end and had to shut down these two not to move an inch.Let’s be ready for the same tune provided Uhuru Kenyatta is still the Commander-in-chief.

Corruption has been the worst nightmare of current Uhuru administration.We have been ranked 3rd worldwide as the most corrupt country. The government is a collection of different and multiple entities who governs different sectors of concern in Nation building meaning it’s not Uhuru the Government.His government will be back I believe with same faces of corrupt Cabinet Secretaries and arms of Government.Raila had a mission to ‘Fagia wote’ sweep all away to start a fresh.All these grand corruption; Chicken Gate saga, Eurobond, National Youth Service (NYS) only came to limelight after Odinga’s alarm and the majority if not all had faith he could have been the revolutionist. Corruption takes up to half of annual budgetary allocations. Money set aside for the advancements of the country, ends up in the hands of a few, denying country development. Corruption has been rampant in the Jubilee Government, so high it has been rated highest in history. President Uhuru excused himself in a feigned exoneration that his hands are tied to deal with corruption. It has become inconsequential and fashionable to steal public money. If the last was bad then you can only imagine of the next.

Unemployment menace has been on rising, more than 1.1million SMEs shut down in the last 4yrs in presence of Uhuru regime and so did companies, industries, and banks relocate from Kenyan market due to Economy crisis rendering thousands of Kenyans jobless. Cost of Living due to the rate of unemployment and Economy flop has been witnessed in some parts of the country people starving to death, when there was Unga/maize flour Nationwide shortage, an unaffordable packet of milk, the unaffordable price of sugar all occurred out of Will and Strategy for votes hunting.Single mothers for the first time were to be recognized and catered for by Odinga government, all is lost. If Jubilee is to carry on with the same policies then unemployment rates likely to heighten.

Dead Institutions especially the Clergy who are used to government looted money through conducting Harambee which Deputy President William Ruto is best at to silence them. The church a moral support body has been squarely engulfed in the murky business and voices bought. Noticeably, the church has been conspicuously missing miss crisis moments. Church went into bed with the oppressors and flock left on their own.

International community combined forces in a conspiracy to protect their individual country’s business interests in the premature endorsement of the election described as free and fair unanimously to the presidency of Uhuru. This sounds good but in line, line loses the sovereignty sense which by the way is illusory. Nothing is for free and they’ll definitely expect to oil of their backs by the fraudulent regime endorsed.

Now more than ever given the Jubilee’s tyranny of numbers and majority occupants in both Parliament and Senate, legislation making bodies. We’re just likely to see selfish and oppressive legislations pass through. For this, a very strong civil society is needed as a backup to check the system. Knowing what’s ahead, it doesn’t shock that Civil society is the first casualties of Jubilee terrorism. A weakened civil society and opposition leaves Jubilee with the monopoly of running the town. And don’t be shocked of Moi era is reincarnated. A direct attack on the civil society is an indirect attack on fundamental human rights.

In 2013, after the negative Supreme Court ruling that upheld the election of Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila said the infamous “don’t feel bad for me that I’ve lost the election, feel bad for yourself for whom you’ve elected” he prophesied mystery under Jubilee rule something we all can agree to or act numb and say otherwise.

 

https://twitter.com/JohnKerry/status/897141573112258560

https://twitter.com/AScarammucci/status/897141936137666564

John Kerry has been savaged by angry Kenyans on Twitter for endorsing the disputed Presidential Election. Kerry, a former US Secretary of State led the Carter Centre observers to the Kenyan Election. The Carter Centre has withheld its verdict based on tallying concerns.

Former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci has savaged Secretary John Kerry over his comments on the disputed Kenyan Election. Kerry who was part of the Carter Centre team to observe the election has been widely criticized for calling the elections “free and fair”. Several deaths have been reported after violent protests followed the electoral body’s announcement of Uhuru Kenyatta as the winner.

Kerry gave the election a clean bill of health asking aggrieved parties to seek legal redress. However, his sentiments sharply contradicted with Carter’s formal statement that has red flagged the tallying process by IEBC. In a section it reads “Although election day voting and counting processes functioned smoothly, the electronic transmission of results from the polling stations to the 290 constituency centers, where official results are tallied, proved unreliable. The IEBC advised election officials to revert to the paper copies of the results forms, which provided a reliable mechanism to tabulate the results. Unofficial results were also transmitted to the national tally center, where they were posted on its website. Unfortunately, the early display of vote tallies at the national level was not accompanied by the scans of polling station results forms as planned, nor labeled unofficial, leading to some confusion regarding the status of official results.”

NASA has raised an alarm that the results were unsubstantiated causing confusion, despite their demands to have the stream numbers pulled down until official numbers from the constituencies backed up with form 34Bs are received as those are the official numbers that ought to have been shown in the first place. NASA has disputed the elections flagging the tallying process insisting IEBC servers were compromised in favor of Uhuru.

The Carter Center’s observation mission closely collaborated with other international observation missions, including the African Union, COMESA, the Commonwealth, the East African Community, the European Union, ICGLR, IGAD, and the National Democratic Institute, as well as from consultations with key Kenya election observation groups and other stakeholders. It therefore not unusual that they both had a unanimous voice giving the election a clean bill of health.

On Monday 14th August, Mr. Kerry made a comment on Kenya’s election on his Twitter page expressing his concern over the state of violence urging aggrieved to seek lawful routes of solving the dispute. However, his carefully chosen words provoked emotions and he was attacked viciously by Kenyans who were clearly angry and disappointed with his endorsement of the contested presidential vote. Some of the replies;

https://twitter.com/crispinokumu/status/897152918188470272

https://twitter.com/kamwash254/status/897158396578865152

https://twitter.com/owilijunior/status/897158283173167104

https://twitter.com/BasilShuiski/status/897147227994324992

But you ignored claims on credibility of the tallying process. It is not about a Raila or Uhuru win , it is about free, fair & credible.

— 𝓵𝓪𝓸🇰🇪 (@AgolaLinda) August 14, 2017

Oh, Kerry spare us the white supremist jargon and diplomatic talk. Explain to us why your sentiments contradicted the Carter Report!

— OO7 (@ogutuokudo) August 14, 2017

https://twitter.com/TheStudioBuzz/status/897154351462064128

While you have us in your thoughts. Ponder on this. What if the elections were stolen right before your eyes? Where goes our democracy?

— Esther Muthoni Passaris (@EstherPassaris) August 14, 2017

The position taken by the Americans in this election can only be likened to 2007 where a Kibaki win was their priority. Under the then Ambassador Reinbergger nothing was made unclear that the US was uncomfortable with an Odinga e in which was then inevitable all factors constant.

America commissioned an exit poll that showed Kibaki losing to Raila in the election by 6%. However, with instructions from the ambassador, the results were withheld from public release. Mr. Kenneth Flottman, East Africa director for the International Republican Institute, the pro-democracy group that administered an American government commissioned exit poll, said he had believed that the results would promptly be made public, as a check against election fraud by either side. But then his supervisors said the poll numbers would be kept secret.

When the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki, was finally declared the winner amid cries of foul, Kenya exploded in violence that would leave more than 1,200 people dead before the two sides negotiated a power-sharing deal two months later. With rioters roaming the streets, Mr. Flottman sent an e-mail message to a colleague saying he was worried that, in rebuffing his pleas to release the poll, the institute had succumbed to political pressure from American officials.

 

“Supporting democracy and managing political outcomes are two different objectives for a nonpartisan, foreign-based organization or country,” he wrote, “and sometimes there is a conflict that requires a choice.”

Years later, the poll’s fate remains a source of bitter contention, even as Kenya moved to remake its electoral system. The failure to disclose it was raised at a Senate hearing in Washington and has been denounced by human rights advocates, who said it might have saved lives by nudging Mr. Kibaki to accept a negotiated settlement more quickly.

Exit polls, of course, are not always accurate, and it is impossible to know if events might have played out differently had the Institute publicized the results, as it has usually done elsewhere. But in Kenya’s highly contested election, this particular exit poll, conducted by an experienced American organization, might have been the best gauge of who really won. There’s no publicly available exit poll for 2017 election proven to have been commissioned by the US.

An examination by The New York Times found that the official explanation for withholding the poll — that it was technically flawed — had been disputed by at least four people involved in the institute’s Kenya operations. The examination, including interviews and a review of e-mail messages and internal memorandums, raises questions about the intentions and priorities of American observers as Kenyans desperately sought credible information about the vote.

None of those interviewed professed to know why the Institute withheld the results. But the decision was consistent with other American actions that seemed focused on preserving stability in Kenya, rather than determining the actual winner.

When Mr. Kibaki claimed victory on Dec. 30, 2007, the State Department quickly congratulated him and called on Kenyans to accept the outcome, even though international observers had reported instances of serious ballot-counting fraud. American officials backed away from their endorsement the next day and ultimately pushed the deal that made Mr. Odinga prime minister. There’s no evidence neither rumors that the US might have directly meddled in this year’s election not unless a history was replicated. Raila is expected to make an announcement on the next step he’s taking having vowed that this will be the last election to be stolen.

 

NASA cannot get what is right to be done especially when media is perpetuating the psychological script that is meant to cow the public.

It’s outrageous that journos and “pundits” and “political analysts” have decided to be part of this charade. What we are fighting is the casual broadcast and analysis of a grand heist.

IEBC generated fictitious numbers which cannot tally with Forms from polling stations and constituencies. Secondly, they flouted the law on the procedure of transmission of Presidential results (send in number and form 34A scans simultaneously. . and not hours and a day apart). Third, they flouted the law on announcement of Presidential results (Constituency declaration of results. NOT BOMAS)

NASA is asking a basic question. Starting with …that con number on the screen which any sensible heads should question. That 54% Uhuru lead on Raila. ..WHERE did it come from? What SUPPORTS it? What process ARRIVED at it?

IEBC has repeatedly admitted that the numbers which have been hanging there for 3 days are not based on anything.

Question is – Why are these unverified results still up? You’d be a fool to present NASA numbers in this fraudulent atmosphere.

STEP 1- TAKE THEM DOWN! STEP
2 – Put up VERIFIED numbers! Aren’t these available by the increasing number of Form 34Bs (Constituency Presidential Results) that confused Chebukati keeps announcing they have.

Take down that fictitious figure. Both at Bomas and on TV. Then let’s count what the verified documents are saying. The law says Results must be verifiable. Let’s start there.

Don’t ask NASA to bring their figures and argue with some “number” whose origin even IEBC itself admits is based on NOTHING.

 

Some legal tips on handling electronic evidence this election period. If you take a video or photo of any event, for it to be credible, it must be extracted from your device by a qualified police evidence expert. Hence, if you share the photo on social media, it may not count as evidence. Hence, take your device to the police, ODPP or IEBC for them to advise on how to extract the evidence so that it counts in court.

 

Serious and severe election offenses that may arise on the voting day:

1. Do not take any selfies of your Ballot Papers or the inside of the Polling Station. It’s an offence. We may have done it during party nominations but it was wrong. It’s illegal.

2. Do not be a good Scout and help anyone in filling or marking their Ballots at a polling station. It’s illegal unless you are the designated person to assist and you follow the laid down procedure.

3. Do not take any Souvenir Ballot papers Home as proof that you voted on 8.8. 2017, just because you don’t feel like voting for any Governor or Women’s Rep. position, please don’t remove those unmarked ballots, despite the great temptation to.

4. Do not touch or handle any IEBC materials or equipment apart from those handed to you e. g. ballot papers or where you are directed to use e. g. the voting booth. It’s an offense.

5. At all costs avoid the temptation to handle, lift, shake or check if the Ballot Box is full. It’s illegal. Should the Presiding Officer form the opinion that you are disrupting the voting process, you would be in trouble.

6. IEBC Materials belong to IEBC. For purposes of the voting day pretend they are not purchased using Tax payers money.

Let’s read and familiarize ourselves with the Election Offences Act 2016 and share information on any old offenses and any old habits that have been criminalized in the new Act. e. g. it would appear that impersonating a person living with a disability or a sick person to gain priority voting without queuing is an offense.

Some few important Norms and standards for IEBC that this election will be free fair and credible to the most attainable standards*.

1. IEBC has made it clear that any mischievous activity at a polling station will be the responsibility of the electoral officials there. If the PO messes up then he will be crucified alone. If each polling station produces good work then we are guaranteed credible results.

2. The issue of ballot papers not stamped at the back is a criminal offense. IEBC has instructed all POs to note the names of clerks 3, 4 and 5 and ensure at all times that the ballot papers are stamped. POs and DPOs will ensure that each ballot paper issued is stamped.

3. KIEMS is designed to capture the details of each voter biometrically and as such no dead voters will vote. If at all the voter is not found biometrically then the alphanumerical search is initiated and the PO will cross check the details on ID and the one found and if it’s not matching then he can either validate or invalidate the voter allowing him/her to vote or not. The PO is required to fill form 32A whenever he validates a voter. It’s important to note that the manual register is a print out of the KIEMS and if the voter is not found in KIEMS then he cant and won’t be allowed to vote.

4. At the close of voting, KIEMS notifies the RO that the station has been closed and it calculates the number of voters who have been identified which must tally with the number of ballot papers issued.

5. The ballot papers have specific serials for each polling station and therefore no ballot papers of other stations can be found somewhere else.

6. When transmitting results KIEMS would not allow the number of votes to exceed the limit of 700 meaning no candidate can have more votes i.e no stuffing of ballot papers.

7. The number of ballot papers issued to each candidate must tally because every single voter MUST be issued with 6 ballot papers ensuring that no elective position will have more votes meaning the tally of votes must match for each polling station.

8. Result Transmission will be once and witnessed by all agents present. The forms 34A to 39A must be filled and signed by all agents presents who confirm the results being sent.

IEBC is determined to ensure the elections are free, fair and credible. This is at least from their verbal commitments, therefore, we must accord then the benefits of doubts.

 

By Leon Lidigu

President Uhuru Kenyatta couldn’t help it too but made Joho get re-elected early enough. He loves the man. He loves Joho secretly. Imagine someone coming to your own home many times while ignoring you then has the audacity to ask ‘ unanifuatia nini ? Kwani we ni bibi yangu ? ‘ I wouldn’t lie to you that Emir Sultan Ali Hassan Joho doesn’t fascinate me too. He’s what we call in my village ‘ Imbuli yumutakhaa ‘ Find Senator Khalwale @Kbonimtetezi and ask him what it means, he’s one too. I am not a pretender and those who think that journalists like myself shouldn’t have a political opinion can go hug a cactus. First, we are Kenyan citizens who love our country before we become journalists. Secondly, our constitution gives us the privilege of voting.

Before I vote as a journalist, I need to know who am voting for and why am doing so. Back to business now. When you look at Africa without further ado , Moeletsi Mbeki was not damned for stating that ‘ major political reforms bring important changes in the lives of ordinary people, sometimes for better but other times for worse ‘ Lumpen radicalism is a political tradition of unruliness – and at times resistance – in which fantasies of male power, control and desire have always been deeply entangled with ‘ war envy ‘ and an almost insatiable appetite for money, luxuries, and women .

It is a direct product of the influx-control system, the mass forced removals and relocations and the relentless and all pervading social and economic insecurity that have for long been the hallmarks of the common mwananchi experience.Our politicians have taught us that power is first conquered on the streets, burial ceremonies where populist characters thrive and cannibalize on the vulnerability of emotional mourners, Harambee, and even local soccer matches if not bullfighting ceremonies then translate into the domain of home and formal institutions.

A life of shame, social humiliation, and dishonor is thought to be retrieved from abjection through conspicuous display and consumption of wealth. Question is, is the Kenyan youth ready? Wait a minute, who exactly is the youth in Kenya? The old goons Uhuru Kenyatta keeps dragging out of retirement for the mere fact that they have overwhelming experience when it comes to thievery of public funds and does an awesome job leaving behind ‘ without a trace scenarios? ‘ Young people wake up! Smell the coffee. The ascendency of the youth, its attempt to wrestle power from the older generation and to take charge of these adults is known as #Johoism.

It has for a long time coincided with periods of intense fracture of the youth life experience and the concomitant crisis of fear and imagination. What exactly are the youths afraid of? The assassination of the late Jacob Juma is still fresh in our minds. Would such have happened in say South Africa, do you think South Africans would even have imagined of ‘ accepting and moving on ‘ before burial? We have a serious accept and move on disease in this country. Just another way of saying ‘ you are cowards ‘. We must stop burying our heads in the sand and wake up! I love getting back to The Soweto Uprising whenever am discussing this. It remains the most notable episodes of all that took place in the 20th century around the world. It gave birth to the phenomenon of the ‘ Comrades ‘ in the 1980’s when the apartheid state’s hold over the township in South Africa was weakened by none other than young people. In Kenya, the signs of entropy are there for all to see.

They are particularly dramatized by the dilemmas of unemployment and the expansion of spaces of vulnerability in all arenas of everyday life.Despite the emergence of a struggling middle-class, a rising superfluous population is becoming a permanent fixture of the Kenyan social fabric with possibilities of ever being exploited by the haves. Would you blame them for turning to Sports Pesa as their most cherished source of income? Now the haves who have been busy gambling with their lives since independence want to kill their only source of income. Truth is, most young people in this country are barely holding onto the ledge. They are likely never to get full-time formal employment or enter the proletarian economy. Stuck in the field of blighted possibilities, they scavenge to live or simply to get through the day – so many bad jobs available to so few in one of the most ethnic unequal countries on earth; so much rage, almost no future.

For those in survival mode – and who know too well what it means to experience social humiliation first hand – A heart of A Lion is all you need to stand up and say enough is enough! And this time round our lion is none other than #Simba001, Emir Sultan Of The Republic Of Kenya. Go Joho go! Save Kenya while you still can.

Note: Writer is a journalism student in India, views are his own andnot necessarily of Kenya Insights 

 

Under 48hours, Kenyans will be streaming into polling stations countrywide to put final decision into perspective after a long, tiresome campaign period. Kenyans will be walking with high hopes that their individual vote counts and for the win of their selected candidate. Kenyans are putting their little hope on the referee, IEBC to conduct a scratch free election for an acceptable results.

IEBC enjoys dangerously minimal public confidence which is a deadly situation for such a body to go with into an election where majority think they’re compromised by the power elite. However, with such a disastrous state, IEBC has done little or nothing to improve their relations and gain public interest. If anything, IEBC has been sinking deeper and deeper into oblivion given their poorly informed decisions painting them in the public eye as being dishonest. The unanimous voice Jubilee has been according to the electoral body has done more damaging than good as they come out to be in sync.

If there’s one thing that has been holding Kenyans hopes together in IEBC then it is the Integrated Electronic System, KIEMS which the general belief is the only guarantee of getting fair results. The designers of this system factored into locking out illegitimate voters. Dead voters have been used several times to bungle elections. Post 2007/08 historic violence, one of the legislations recommended by Judge Kriegler of South Africa, was having an electronic voting system as a measure of preventing chaos. KIEMS conveniently locks out the ghost, double voting, and ballot stuffing. To prevent imminent violence in the next hours, the system MUST not fail.

Given struggling trust IEBC has with the public, the failure of the system will shoot up suspicions and probably will spark the violence. The weight that the success of this system holds to the country is unimaginable. It is the holding strong. Anything manual is read with suspicions.

I found it absolutely stupid and miscalculation given the timing that IEBC announces that nearly 25% of polling stations countrywide don’t have internet coverage. What this then means is the presiding officers in the affected areas will have to walk, run it crawl around looking for places with a network. While it is not unusual to find some areas to have poor network coverage, it is unforgivable that IEBC didn’t factor this in early enough to ensure the constituency centers where final results will be made have sufficient network coverage.

IEBC has contingency plan where satellite phones would be used in remote areas without sufficient network coverage. It baffles why IEBC would even stroke the idea of having POs move from the centers in the pretext of looking for a network.

Being that final tallying will be made at night, having presiding officer sprinting around looking for the tallest tree to transmit the results puts the lives of officers at risk from being attacked by evilly minded elements. This movement of looking for a network gives a window period for results manipulation. We adopted the electronic transmission simply because of what Jubilee is reverting to. Results are most likely to be manipulated in this space. If you look keenly at the list of flagged counties, you’ll realize majority are from the strongholds of Jubilee and NASA. It doesn’t need rocket science to tell the possible motives. If an officer is attacked or even kidnapped going missing with the forms it simply paralyzes the system.

Even if we didn’t have the satellite phones, a scanned form 34 which is what the presiding officer is supposed to send is a small size data barely 2MBs which can easily be sent via GPRS, 2G internet. Officers don’t have to travel 100KMs+ just to find the 3G for sending data. This idea is filthy, must not be pursued as it gives more than enough loopholes to tamper with real results. This is most likely to bring back the mind games of delaying results from certain areas as cooking gets balancing. Tharaka Nithi is an example that can’t escape many minds.

The CEO Chiloba whose real in IEBC is being read with sharp eyes, has detracted earlier decision that unstamped ballot is valid.  Now any ballot that is unstamped will be taken as invalid. Why would my vote be wasted on the negligence of officers who are supposed to ensure every ballot is stamped. The directive simply allows for incompetence to have a seat. If a vote is invalidated for not being stamped them the presiding officer must be held liable. Had IEBC done enough voter education to ensure such avoidable mistakes? This loophole again gives room for foul play as we can have systematic votes spoilage through deliberate skipping of the stamps.

As I’ve mentioned, the failure of the electronic system will be the start of mayhem, this isn’t pessimism but the reality. Hopes of many Kenyans for a credible poll lays on that system. The death of Msando has dealt blue to the IEBC further running over its credibility. IEBC must, therefore, ensure system the works without a hitch as they’ve repeatedly assured or they’ll have failed Kenyans.

And if you asked me whether the system will fail, my answer is a big YES! It will fail either mechanical failure or induced failure which was the case in 2013 and the monkeys didn’t change, they just moved into a new forest.

By YASH GHAI

 

Kenyans over 18 years will on Tuesday have the opportunity to cast their vote for the election of the President. It is probably the most important decision they will make until the next election, five years from now — more even than the bribery they will be offered for the vote.

In order to understand the significance of the vote, we have to remind ourselves of the nature and importance of the Constitution. Kenyans are rightly very proud of their Constitution and its objectives and values.

They represent the sovereignty of Kenya, which they must guard even as they go to vote — for elections are no less than the delegation of most powers of the state to the President. It would be a great tragedy if the powers were given to the candidate who has little respect for the values and procedures of the Constitution.

Then all the struggles and sacrifices of Kenyans to secure this Constitution would have been wasted — and in this way we will also have betrayed those who sacrificed most.

VALUES OF THE CONSTITUTION

By now, most Kenyans understand these values — after all these are the values they demanded. We must vote for that candidate who shows the greatest respect for these values, for, once elected, it is not easy to remove the President, and the harm that the president can do the people and the state is enormous harm.

Briefly, constitutional values and goals include national unity, respect for diversity, human rights, respect for all citizens, equality, social and economic rights, democracy and devolution, people’ participation in affairs of the state, and respect for the Constitution and the law. It is because the achievement of these objectives depends on the government that presidential elections are so important, for the president runs the government and has a big impact also on the economy and people’s lives.

However, to a very significant extent, the achievement of these objectives depends on another objective: Good governance, integrity, transparency, accountability and the separation of state powers (integrity aiming at the elimination of corruption, perhaps the most critical problem facing Kenya).

The exercise of presidential power can be questioned and challenged. Some of the checks or brakes on presidential powers are the jurisdiction of an independent judiciary to judge the validity of presidential action or decision, requirements of people’s participation, a number of independent commissions to “protect the sovereignty of the people, secure the observance by all state organs of democratic values and principle, and promote constitutionalism”, protected powers and functions of the counties, and considerable autonomy of the police.

The national parliament can also question the policies or acts of the executive and has the power to impeach the president (though with a majority of parliamentary support, those powers are hard to invoke). The practice of imperial presidency is still so strong that the president has been able to get away with serious violations of the Constitution or laws.

HOW ARE WE TO DECIDE BETWEEN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES?

To decide on the presidency, it is necessary to analyze the functions and powers of the president. Perhaps the most important is the president must promote and enhance the unity of the nation; promote respect for diversity of Kenyans; ensure the protection of human rights and fundamental freedom and the rule of law; uphold and safeguard the sovereignty of Kenya; and in “respect, uphold and safeguard this Constitution”. The way in which presidential powers are exercised is often apparent from the situation of the economy, accessibility of young people to education, the state of health of the people and availability of medical treatment, and disparities of incomes and opportunities among people of different communities and counties. Another test is whether the president goes beyond his or her powers—for example, the powers of the president are very limited visa-a-vis the police and security forces, and none over the judiciary. A good test would be how far the president has unified the country by the equal treatment of all communities and areas.

How do we apply these tests to the candidates, only one of whom has served as president? And there seems to be only one other candidate with significant experience in politics and public life? Our task is made easier that only two candidates are treated as having a chance of being elected — Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga, both of whom have considerable experience of public affairs, policy making, etc.

At this stage, another test would be how these candidates and their parties have conducted the election campaigns so far — especially as the Constitution sets out in great detail the qualifications and behavior of parties and candidates. Unfortunately, in Kenya, the electoral behavior of most parties has become shameful to the extreme — and sadly provides no choice when it comes to voting.

WHO WILL BECOME DEPUTY PRESIDENT?

An important consideration in voting for president should be the candidate’s running mate, to which little attention has been paid. The Constitution provides for the assumption of the presidency by the deputy in case of the absence or temporary incapacity of the President or whenever the president so decides.

The deputy becomes president automatically if the president is removed by impeachment, ill-health or dies; and exercises a full five-year term if the former president had served less than half the normal presidential term. It is obvious that very serious consideration should be given to the running mate when voting for president.

Little needs to be said about Uhuru’s choice of his running mate, William Ruto. He too seems to have little understanding of the Constitution or does not care about it. He has made a huge fortune in a relatively short span of time, mostly, it is suspected, in devious ways, like land grabbing, and, in a short time, he has built himself a huge fortune. Few Kenyans would be comfortable with the idea of his presidency. A one-time admirer of Raila (as was Uhuru), he has changed his position fundamentally — no doubt for convenience.

Raila has chosen his running mate more sensibly, Kalonzo. At least he does not carry the recklessness of Ruto. Despite being in government for a long time, Kalonzo does not have a known record of corruption that would even touch the reputation of Ruto for graft. He seems more thoughtful and reflectful and, during his time in opposition, he has shown some consistency.

Kenyans would do well to vote for Raila if only to spare us from Ruto.

 

KENYATTA’S RECORD

Since Uhuru is the only candidate who has been President, I intend to judge his record largely by reference to his conduct over the four-and-a-half years. He has considerable charm and seems caring for others (as I learnt during Bomas).

Though I believe that his concern is serious, he does not seem to be able to translate it into concrete policies, as was obvious when he was a Cabinet minister. But the long period of imperial presidential rule which he tasted at close quarters for years, has given him the notion that presidents can do what they like — a kind of arrogance otherwise so out of his character.

As a general point, no candidate, who does not fully subscribe to constitutional values, in theory, and practice, should be supported for the presidency. Of these values, the two most important qualities needed for the position are integrity and nationalism/patriotism. Ever since Independence, beginning with and incited by Jomo Kenyatta, ethnicity has been critical in politics and business, fostered by “leaders”, deliberately creating a sense of hostility among “tribes”, and not infrequently violence.

Corruption was the pre-occupation of those who captured the state, and used its resources and access to foreign loans — and its coercive power — to enrich themselves. The scale of corruption is monumental. Uhuru has shown little concern with this state of affairs. The state services employ a proportionally high degree of the Kikuyu, as are profitable businesses requiring state patronage (the Kenyatta enterprises also benefit from the favors of the state).

The result is that Uhuru becomes essentially an agent of these groups, a presidential candidate at their dictates — no longer an independent president, who swore an oath to ensure social and economic rights of all Kenyans. The disparities between the rich and the poor have increased at an alarming rate; class distinctions are rapidly overtaking ethnic or religious differences. More and more people live in appalling poverty.

A second term of Uhuru will reinforce the notion that Kenya belongs to the Kikuyu, further damaging the prospects of a common citizenship and national unity. These two factors should disqualify him from public support. But there are many other examples of his disregard of the Constitution, which I have documented in several articles in the Star ever since he became president. For example, he early removed the autonomy of the police by amending the law; some of the independence was restored by a ruling of the court.

Likewise, he tried to bring the judiciary under his control, by bringing his people into the Judicial Service Commission and to control the appointment of judges, including the Chief Justice. The public and the judiciary fought back; he had to give in. He has very grudgingly “allowed” the establishment of devolution but has imposed various restrictions on the counties, and left behind a large force, responsible to the central government.

From his numerous statements, especially those about his authority, one gets the impression that he has not read the Constitution, or at least not understood the scope of his authority. His economic policies, involving huge loans, have been criticized, as have the inadequate accounting of foreign and local loans. And he seems to have taken over a year for his political campaign, paying little attention to his duties as president and head of government.

VOTE FOR RAILA ODINGA?

There are many arguments in support of Raila. Unlike Uhuru, he is a mature politician. The election of a non-Kikuyu will augur the path to a feeling of nationhood. Again, unlike Uhuru, he has fought against dictatorship and paid a heavy price for it, including a long period of imprisonment.

Of all the Kenyan politicians I have met, he has reflected more than any one on constitutions as well as the system of government — and decided in favor of parliamentary (a system which might have spared us the violence, intrigues, bribes, etc). I could always count on Raila’s support when Moi and Kibaki opposed the Bomas draft; Raila should get great credit for the wonderful Constitution that we now have.

He has a sophisticated understanding of nationhood and fairness. He seems to be able to make his own decision, which Uhuru seems incapable of. It seems unlikely that he would take orders from a cabal. He is an enthusiastic supporter of devolution and would like to see more functions and funds allocated to the counties — a position that has wide support in the country. He will need to be a bit tougher with his staff than in the past.

His victory would be widely seen, locally and in other countries, as a fitting reward for his long political service as well as being done out of proper rewards in some previous elections — a defeat that he took remarkably He understands the nature of politics in a way that eludes Uhuru. And he does seem to have read the Constitution and is committed to making it work.

Kenyans desperately need a president who is committed to the Constitution, as was Mandela, which brought about a renaissance in South Africa. Neither Kibaki nor Uhuru liked the new Constitution; it is the time we had a champion of it for the future to which millions of Kenyans committed themselves through the Constitution.

I do not intend to suggest that Raila does not have any weaknesses. When he was Prime Minister in the coalition government, there were a number of false moves (more the responsibility of his senior staff) that alienated the support of civil society and other supporters. If he becomes president, he would have to take control and seriously guard against corrupt, opportunistic individuals and tribal chauvinists from defining and guiding his leadership. He should also not allow himself to be mesmerized by power.

Even with his known frailties, he towers way above Uhuru. It may also be that he has learnt from earlier experience. He has now very competent, honest and reliable advisers, including Zein Abubakar, David Ndii, and Salim Lone — known to many for their intelligence, integrity, commitment to a fair regime and social justice, and the Constitution as a whole.

Kenyans would lose a great opportunity if they did not vote for Raila Odinga.

 

Writer is an activist and constitutional advocate. Views his own. 

 

On Friday night the NASA tallying center housed at Sifa Towers in Nairobi was raided. The government would quickly come out to dismiss the news as fake saying no such an attack has happened in what has now become a clear crisis management plot.

On Saturday, Siaya Senator James Orengo alleged that police officers led by a chief inspector staged the raid at the NASA presidential tallying center in Nairobi’s Westlands in which they destroyed equipment and carried away computers. During a rally at Uhuru Park, Nairobi yesterday, Orengo named five police officers who he said were among the 15 who allegedly raided the tallying center.

 

The Raila Odinga-led Opposition said two IT experts, an American and a Canadian, who were helping NASA in setting up the tallying center, were picked from their apartment in Westlands and taken into custody while two Ghanaians, who were set to join them were stopped at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport and sent back home.

The American has been identified as John Aristotle Philip while NASA gave one name of the Canadian as Andrea. The Ghanaians were not identified.

Moments after NASA spoke about the raid and the deportation of experts, the American embassy in Nairobi confirmed that indeed Philip had since departed the country.

“We are in touch with the Kenyan government and with one American and one Canadian detained on August 4. They are safe and departing Kenya,” said the US embassy in a statement.

Guards at the premises said about 20 hooded gunmen armed with rifles and pistols attacked the premises near General Mathenge Drive, Nairobi, and carted away dozens of computers and other valuables.

The center is located in a private house and had been set up ready to tally election results from all the 290 constituencies.

The guards said the gang raided at 8 pm and took almost an hour to complete their mission. They broke down and carried away surveillance cameras, desktop computers, computer servers, iPads, and laptops.

 

The U.S.-based company Aristotle Inc that works on campaign data confirmed that its CEO had been detained in Kenya and faces deportation after working on the opposition’s campaign ahead of Tuesday’s tightly contested presidential election. John Aristotle Phillips, an American, and Canadian staffer Andreas Katsouris were detained Friday night and face were deported later Saturday. The two men were assisting opposition candidate Raila Odinga with issues including strategy and data analysis and had chosen to get involved in the Kenyan election because they thought it had the potential for irregularities.

“We pick our international campaigns very carefully,” Travis a representative of Aristotle Inc told AP “Odinga was a candidate they really believed in.” The embassy said Saturday on Twitter that U.S. and Canadian officials have been in touch with their detained citizens as well as the Kenyan government.

James Orengo said on Saturday that the two foreigners were taken from their homes on Friday. He says the detentions occurred at around the same time that armed and masked police raided an opposition vote counting center, intimidating workers and seizing equipment.

The two Ghanaian citizens who were blocked from entering the country were part of the indomitable strategists who consulted and delivered the presidency to Nana Akufo-Addo in Ghana after unsuccessful attempts. Their experience and expertise has added value to the NASA campaigns and specifically on preventing voter rigging. The two are said to be sharp data analysts.

From the raid to the deportation of data analysts working for NASA simply tells the motive to disrupt and ensure NASA’s results tallying and verification is either dead or compromised. This shouldn’t be an issue if the commitment is to have a credible election. The uncivilized raids and deportations shows the sabotage commitment to ensure NASA doesn’t run a successful parallel tallying. NASA had threatened to announce their own results should IEBC attempt to play any monkey business.

Ideally, parallel tallying shouldn’t be much of a worry if the voting system runs on honesty. As for the deported, in this highly technological world with video call a and conferencing isn’t it a shot to own leg when NASA can in a click converse with the deported experts and if anything, they can instal their own virtual centre from anywhere in the world. It’s also unclear as to why the NASA experts were targeted yet Jubilee campaign is run by foreigners including Cambridge Analytica who’ve developed the hate campaigns and heavy online infiltration.

 

 

Uncomfortable, an unusual discussion has been going on at the heights of this hotly contested election; involvement of the army in the election. The opposition NASA has consistently insisted that the regime is determined a d planning to use the military in rigging the August 8th poll. They went as far as leaking a military plan document which was confirmed by the army spokesman Col. Joseph Owuoth but in an abrupt turn, Department of Defence scraped the document as a fake.

There have been rumors of possible divisions in the army more specifically on the political perspective. Tribalism in Kenya is a killer disease, in the security plan document leaked by NASA, it was not shocking that tribe and regime friendliness was a cut off line in the choice of soldiers to be used in the exercise. The leaking of military information on involvement in the election has been read as a possible division in the hierarchy with the disgruntled leaking information to the opposition. However, this is debatable as there are also possibilities of deliberate leaks by owners.

Being an apolitical outfit, it is mere speculation to tell the affiliation and really unnecessary but nature of politics pushes us. In Gambia recently, the army turned against the incumbent Jammeh, they joined public in his ouster. The unpredictability of The Army’s perhaps what gets it going. Kenya has a respected force regionally and it would be disappointing to see them taking individual rights ahead of the public whom they have obligation to protect.

During the presidential debate that President Uhuru boycotted, Raila touched on a sensitive issue that gave hope to junior officers in the army. Raila said removing Kenyan soldiers from Somalia is a priority should ascend to office. If there’s any clear division in the army then it must be in the stay in Somalia. Junior officers are reportedly suffering the year at the expense of a few senior individuals who gain in illicit trade. Charcoal, sugar smuggling are illegal businesses senior officers are engaged in as reported widely in several reports. Given accountability shield put on the army, questions are never asked and those who dare dig deeper risks being enemies of the state. The soldiers would rather come back home and protect the border but would the seniors allow that?

One of the questions that probably would’ve kept President Uhuru from attending the debate is the El Adde run down by the Al Shabaab. Up to date, the government has never given exact numbers of soldiers killed leave alone the secretive and unceremoniously conducted burial of the killed soldiers. This is a question of posed, the president would’ve swallowed his tongue. Such occasions naturally demoralize the soldiers who put their lives in line only to be subjected to alike treatment in their death.

Several complaints have also been flying around on the standards of the military equipment more particularly the recently blowing up APCs, no detectors to avoid being hit by landmines. While Kenya bought new warfare from the states, KDF still relies on US drones to launch attacks. Even with the promise of modernizing the military, missing a drone is a shame. These soldiers need state of the art equipment and better working conditions including moralizing pay pack. Talking of better pay, the soldiers had been promised an increase but things seemed to have taken on gold water following the consistent attack on the army and leaking of information by NASA.

The military has confirmed precautionary measures in their plans for security during the election and it is no longer a secret that officers drawn from different camps getting training on how to handle the election. It puzzles why special forces would be pulled from places like Boni forest in Lamu where Al Shabaab is causing mayhem for the election training.

 

“The police look more prepared for the election than IEBC” a friend jokingly told me that leaving me struggling to grasp the essence. In Africa not only Kenya, elections are not just a democratic exercise but a horror period as it has become synonymous with war. The government will flex its muscles strategically revealing their armory, fierce cops ready to pounce on demonstrators. A whole set of intimidating theatrics. Media in the other end especially the western even though local media equally infected, will create a hot narrative of possible violence. “We’re not here to cover your elections” a foreign journalist is quoted during the 2013 contested poll that luckily didn’t end dirty as the previous.

History doesn’t help either. While 2007 stands out as the country’s worst electoral year, the truth is that we have seldom had a peaceful election in this country since the advent of multi-partyism in 1991. Like clockwork, in 1992 and 1997, there was violence. In 2002, 350 deaths were reported within two months. The 2007 election went down in history as the worst yet. Pockets of violence and deaths were reported even in the largely peaceful 2013 elections.

Every election comes with its new set of a headache. Presidential elections given the heavily ethnicized country has been the breeding pot for violence. This is a do or dies contest reason it is often the biggest headache. Electoral malpractice has been the core root of all the violence in past electoral history. Agents of change have never gone to sleep and several legislations have been made to minimize loopholes of stealing elections including constituting a fresh electoral body.

During the 2007 election that would erupt into the worst violence in history, the then election board chairman Samuel Kivuitu was a man under siege and his decision to declare Kibaki as president in a clearly pressurized environment, is a decision he probably died regretting. On several occasions when asked, Kivuitu reiterated that he didn’t know exactly who won between Raila and Uhuru. Those are words you wouldn’t want to hear from someone who was to be working independently and announce verified results. It showed how much he was compromised with powerful forces and coerced into announcing cooked results. Many would put the curse of murdered Kenyans on his head for that announcement that triggered nationwide protests.

Kivuitu’s successor Isaak Hassan who was the first to chair an integrated a d independent electoral body IEBC following amendments to have a credible electoral body didn’t escape the wrath a d curse of the office either. In a tightly contested race that was seen to be going into a runoff but given to Uhuru, Hassan was accused of manipulating figures in favor of Jubilee. An electronic voting system that was made to avoid ghost voting was deliberately failed giving way to electoral fraud. IEBC was also accused of playing into Jubilee ball therein shared same servers in which a bug was injected into the system to manipulate numbers in Uhuru’s favor.

Ideally, it really doesn’t matter most of the times who wins but how they win. This is why the integrity and credibility of the electoral process are paramount and the most bankable guarantee of peace. IEBC generally enjoys a dangerously low rated public confidence. The body is perceived as partisan and without integrity. This is a disastrous set of mind going into an election fixed with. On the other hand, IEBC has done too little or nothing to redeem their image and attempt to win the public trust. Hopes of Kenyans are on IEBC and the prayer is for a successful run of the system which by the way is the only remaining string of trust on IEBC. The individual figures in the IEBC are jinxed.

The assassination of the ICT Boss Chris Msando has done more damage to the already damaged IEBC. Here was a man running a sophisticated election system; his public assurances that the integrated system was hacker proof and that all will go untampered with gave a new life and hope in the system. Being a major role player in the most crucial electronic voting system, the murder of Chris has generally been viewed as a direct sabotage on the system. IEBC might put up a strong face and give assurances that the system will work well in Msando absence but I can assure you his role especially in restoring public trust won’t go unnoticed. His death is a blow to public trust something IEBC needed most.

IEBC Chairman Chebukati is the man of the moment, recovering from the trauma of death of a senior colleague in a murder that was also meant to send chilling threats to the rest of IEBC officials, Wafula had the obligation of delivering a successful election and announcing credible and verifiable results or play the tunes of power players. The power elite or the inner state are ruthless and can go to any heights to retain power. Here’s the biggest headache Chebukati has to deal with. The state, inner state, the opposition and entire world have their eyes on this man. With different interests, they both want to achieve. But I don’t think Chebukati should be spoiled for choices while he has the most advisable obligation of delivering a free, fair election.

In the next few days Mr. Chairman, things will get chaotic, you’ll get calls, you’ll get summons, you’ll get visitors you might even in worst cases get kidnapped, you’ll get credible threats on yourself and family. These aren’t just here mentions, you don’t take history lightly. You learn and take precautions. I want to believe that before you applied for the job and took the oath, you were fully aware of the nightmare of a job you were getting into now you have no otherwise but to deliver. Let a few criminal minded individuals who would want to use you in bungling the election loathe you for disappointing but the public cheer you for giving a credible election. History will be kind to you. Listen to nobody but your conscience. Pray to God to guide you. Chebukati you’re literally holding the future of over 40 million Kenyans in your hands. Pray that may God give you the courage and wisdom to deliver a historic election that is credible. With the low public trust on IEBC, I can only wish you the best and all system works as stipulated. But oh boy, I wouldn’t wanna be you, you have the worst job in Kenya. Curses or praises awaits you.

 

For Ike Ochiango, who sells long-life milk to informal traders in Nairobi’s sprawling Kibera slum, Kenya’s Aug. 8 presidential election is bad for business. “People are not buying,” says the 26-year-old, as he takes a break from pulling his makeshift handcart laden with cartons along a rutted dirt road in the traffic-choked capital. “They are afraid of violence and that their shops will be looted.”

The fear is well-founded: Assassinations, intimidation, and gerrymandering have marred previous elections in the East African nation. The memory of an anarchic 2007 vote, and an ensuing killing spree in which at least 1,100 people died, is fresh in the minds of many Kenyans. This year’s campaign has also been fraught, with preparations behind schedule, the opposition up in arms over balloting procedures, and numerous clashes between rival political parties and the police.

The prospect of renewed political turmoil poses further risks to an economy that was one of Africa’s top performers over the past decade, when growth averaged 5.2 percent a year. Now Kenya is contending with a crippling drought and rising government debt. Growth plummeted in the aftermath of the disputed election, to 1.7 percent in 2008 from 7.1 percent the year before. The government expects the economy to grow 5.5 percent in 2017.

About 180,000 personnel from the police, the electoral commission, and other government agencies have been deployed to secure the vote, and the European Union, African Union, and the Commonwealth have sent observers. Robert Besseling, the Johannesburg-based executive director of EXX Africa Ltd., a political risk advisory firm, warns that large parts of the country remain highly susceptible to electoral mischief-making. “There remains ample scope for vote-rigging,” he says. “Allegations of electoral fraud are the primary trigger for outbreaks of violence. Partisan supporters and militia groups will mobilize to protect their ethnic and political interests.” Kenya is home to more than three dozen ethnic groups.

On July 31 the electoral commission said the body of Chris Msando, one of its technology managers, who’d been missing for three days, had been found at a Nairobi mortuary. Msando was one of a few people at the commission who knew the whereabouts of its computer servers, the Nairobi-based Star reported.
About 19.6 million people have registered to participate in the election of a president, a deputy, 47 senators, and 290 members of the lower house. (Kenya’s senate has 67 seats, but only 47 are elected; the balance are nominated to give greater representation to women, youth, and the disabled.) A candidate must win a majority of the popular vote and at least a quarter of ballots cast in more than half of the nation’s 47 counties to win the presidency, failing which a runoff must be held within 30 days.
While eight hopefuls have entered the race, opinion polls show only the incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta, 55, and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, 72, have a realistic chance of winning. A July poll by Ipsos Kenya showed Kenyatta with 47 percent support and Odinga with 43 percent. Emma Gordon, an analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, a U.K.-based risk advisory firm, gives Kenyatta an even chance of a first-round victory but cautions that the race is too close to accurately call.

 

The contest is a rematch of one held five years ago that Kenyatta won in the first round by the narrowest of margins. Odinga cried foul, but the Supreme Court rejected his allegations of vote-rigging. This time, Odinga has the backing of five of the main opposition parties, which have united under the banner of the National Super Alliance to try to unseat Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party.
Kenyatta, the son of Kenya’s founding father and first president, has pledged to boost investment in infrastructure, expand access to health care and education, and create an additional 1.3 million jobs a year.

Odinga, for his part, says he will crack down on corruption, revitalize industry, and cut the fiscal deficit to less than 3 percent of gross domestic product. The budget gap stands at 10.2 percent, and the government debt-to-GDP ratio has ballooned to more than 50 percent, from less than 40 percent eight years ago, as Kenyatta’s administration raised borrowing to fund it. The next administration will have to curtail debt if Kenya is to retain its status as one of Africa’s most-favored investment destinations, according to John Ashbourne, Africa economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “Kenya certainly does not look as promising as it did a few years ago,” he says. “If debt levels continue to rise, then Kenya could get into trouble relatively quickly. There is an additional risk, in that we expect that Kenya’s economy will slow in 2017, so revenue will probably be below target.”

Corruption, a lack of jobs, and rising grain prices resulting from the worst drought in three decades are more pressing concerns for the electorate, Ipsos surveys show. Inflation is running at a five-year high, and the cost of milled corn, a staple food known as unga in Kenya, has soared more than 50 percent over the past year. Almost half the population of 47 million survives on less than $2 a day. The government warns that more than 3 million people are at risk of going hungry.

While Kenya’s economic challenges may sway some votes and induce a higher turnout in opposition strongholds, politicians’ personalities and ethnic loyalties will be more decisive factors if past elections are anything to go by. Kenyatta can count on the support of his fellow Kikuyu, the largest of more than 40 ethnic groups; his running mate, William Ruto, should help him secure backing from the fourth-largest group, the Kalenjin. Odinga, an ethnic Luo, has strong support among the country’s third-biggest group and is banking on the wide diversity of his coalition’s other leaders to draw other voters.

With more than half of registered voters below the age of 35, another key to the outcome will be whether political parties can persuade young people to participate, says Ndung’u Wainaina, executive director of the International Center for Policy and Conflict in Nairobi.

Abdul Azizi, 27, is unemployed and doesn’t see the benefits of voting. “All the politicians are the same,” he says. “They are rich. We are struggling to get half a kilogram of unga. We are dying poor, like dogs. Life is going to be hard after elections. Nothing will change.”

BOTTOM LINE – Because of ethnic politics, President Uhuru Kenyatta has a good shot at capturing another term even though the price of food staples has skyrocketed and public debt has soared.

 

NB: Original article appeared on Bloomberg. Opinions are not Kenya Insights’ but the author’s. 

 

In politics, perception is everything and facts don’t necessarily change people’s minds, for this reason, intelligent politicians put their all in propaganda merchandise. In ten days Kenyans will be going to the voting booth in what is a tightly contested election. Recent polls don’t predict a clear winner between Raila and Uhuru. Experts are predicting a run off which both sides are trying to escape by all means for a first round win.

The human mind is such that it can be manipulated and politicians know a brainwashed voter is the best tool of the trade that’s why you’ll listen to a supporter making some bizarre accusations against an opponent that leaves you stunned. Kenya in 2017 has witnessed perhaps the most complex psychologically weaponised campaign in recent history. But not many feel it, a matter of fact they’re not supposed to believe it, so the strategist keep releasing toxins consumed unknowingly.

Just to give the levels of an active psychological warfare in politics, in 2013; Jubilee strategists developed ideally three best weapons that did not only ensure a win for Jubilee but provided a smooth power transition. First, there was the tyranny of number hypothesis developed by a now disgraced vlogger Mutahi Ngunyi, with numbers manipulation, Kenyans were mentally prepared that a Jubilee win was inevitable given high numbers of votes in Jubilee regions, experts have argued this gave a safe leeway to manipulate votes in favor.

Secondly, there was the ICC train where Uhuru and Ruto played victims of Western manipulation, to their voters they were potential martyrs being crucified in outside country with blessings of Raila whom they sold as the Mzungu puppet. While it is entirely untrue because the two ended up in ICC following investigations by various agencies, the supporters bought this lie; it gave them sympathy and revolt vote, turnout was exemplary in Rift Valley and Central. To them, this wasn’t just an election but a rescue mission for their sons. Now that’s a successful psychological missile mission.

Lastly, ‘peace’ campaigns were heightened, this was a simple, easily swallowed strategy to lull the expected charged reactions. People were told to embrace peace despite anything. The courts, IEBC ran peace slogan campaigns you remember the accept and move on. Typically, oppressive regimes will use this to get away with any malpractice. Minds are tuned to believe that questioning anything in the process amounts to being violent. The peace they use to buy silence. Silence doesn’t equate to peace but to them that doesn’t matter.

Looking at 2017, a similar scenario is playing. There has been a single narrative of possible violence. Many people have been asking me this question as to whether there will be violence and if so then who would be behind the violence. My answer has always been simple, look around, who stands to benefit more from a possible electoral violence? Who’s the loudest on the violence warnings as the tongue only speaks that what the mind knows? Lastly, is the election predetermined that we already know the winner and expected reactions? If there’s anything that bothers me is as to why security agencies preempt violence probably from real or imagined intelligence and do nothing to prevent rather waiting to repel. If we’re looking at organized and coordinated violence, then the intelligence capture would by now have the key perpetrators under lock.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga has perhaps been worst hit with character assassination campaigns which have strategically been launched to paint him in the public picture as a perennial loser, this was the argument also used by IEBC during the petition to discredit CORD, arguable narrative but always a defensive track for his opponent. Raila has been painted as a violent character. If you’re keen on social media campaigns, you must have come across dedicated pages churning hate material portraying Raila in the violent light.

Jubilee politicians lead by the principals have been echoing the Cambridge Analytica’s online hate campaigns calling the opposition leader a violent man who doesn’t love peace. You’d be lucky to get an instance the accused has advocated for violence should you make a challenge. If you look at the pattern of this well-coordinated campaign, you see that violence has been preempted and a decoy owner planted. In the public and international community’s face, Raila has relentlessly been smeared and walking around as the man of the violence so should it erupt then we know where the fingers will be pointing.

Fear of violence has seen massive relocation for the perceived hotspots named by the police; it’s laughable when they’re now threatening to arrest those fleeing for causing anxiety yet their announcement did. We’re seeing police officers displaying anti riot weapons in opposition zones; they’re even having open air combat training on dealing with rioters. This is aimed at nothing but scares mongering.

We have made elections in Kenya a dangerous game. Fear mongering and displacement of voters is also a strategy. As of now, buses to Western Kenya are fully booked till 8/8, flights out of Nairobi sold out. Who’ll benefit from a possible violence post 8/8? Why are we having highest security deployment in opposition areas? The only answer could be a Jubilee win is written and protests expected. This brings us to the question, how free is the election of the winner is already known, and why are a looking at the violent reaction of the process and win will be fair? Read the pattern, answer questions and you’ll have the owner of this violence. Keep in mind that political violence are never spontaneous as you look for the owner.

 

The battle for the North Mugirango constituency seat is turning into a Jubilee Party versus National Super Alliance (NASA) contest. The contest between the two leading coalitions is shaping up even as fringe parties try to steal the show.

The incumbent, MP Charles Geni (Makuti) of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party – a NASA affiliate, is clinging to the seat he has held for the last four years. But County Assembly Speaker Joash Nyamoko of Jubilee Party and nine others are proving to be his biggest nightmare as he seeks re-election.

TIFA County Polls released recently, made it white clear to illusionist and cat-walking North Mugirango Members of Parliament aspirants who are trying to unseat the ODM candidate and who is the current Member of Parliament Charles Mong’are Geni. The parliamentary seat has attracted a record of 13 aspirants making it a center of focus.

Through results released, a survey and door-to-door interview was conducted where 2000 respondents were engaged across various wards in an equilibrium manner and priority in the Constituency, MP Charles Mongare Geni who is the bigwig on ODM ticket was in the lead with 42%, coming second was County Assembly Speaker Joash Nyamoko Nyamache on Jubilee Party ticket with 21%,former Member of Parliament for the constituency Wilfred Ombui Moriasi with 11%,Johnstone Obike Ndege with 5%.

Some of the questionnaires that made Hon.Charles Mongare Geni being the most preferred candidate was rated higher given the People’s belief in his development track record-80%, accountability, response and Relationship with his people-70%, party advantage his being ODM Party member-80%. Nyamira country is a NASA stronghold giving the incumbent an upper hand and his relentless support of Raila candidacy has also boosted his ratings.

Joash Nyamoko, the Jubilee Party candidate is also combing the aren’t leaving anything into chances despite obstacles in selling his policies given his unpopular party of choice and scandals that rocked him in the county assembly are haunting him as well. He’s accused of presiding over multi million scandalous deals.

Among the 13 candidates who are vying for the seat only 4 can manage to influence at least 5% of North Mugirango residents Votes.’Others’ languishing at the bottom seem to be making their way through to game plan 2022. With 6% undecided the gains could favor Charles whom the locals dance applauds his development record which is the determinant factor.

The race is simply a rematch of 2013 where Geni beat his then and now closest rival Joash in a widened win. The voting dynamics have remained the same and little is expected to change giving the incumbent a clear heads up.

 

Numbers are in and an estimated number of 9Million Kenyans we’re tuned in for the grand royale battle for the two leading contenders in the presidential race but as Uhuru boycotted the show, Raila was presented with a lifetime opportunity. Free 90mins media coverage across all mainstream media spaces with close to the 9M audience. Odinga took the chance to do the right thing, convince Kenyans why he’s best suited for the job.

His show up gesture was well received by many who took it as a sign of humility, true leadership, concerned leader and respectful to the larger Kenyan masses who felt privileged to hear out his policies. Uhuru on the other end was receiving and continues to receive harsh criticism from his supporters and none. The president skipped the debate in what is clearly strategy plan from his advisers and instead hosted Samburu in the statehouse.

Being a closely contested race where the winner is too risky to bet on given latest opinion polls that put Uhuru and Raila on a neck to neck position, the debate presented an opportune platform to charm the undecided voters who average 6-8%. To Kenyans who’d made up their minds in whom to vote for, the debate was nothing but entertainment value but for the undecided, it was a decision-making moment.

Having this in mind, Odinga seem to have come to the debate with the single strategy of appealing to the undecided voters who by the way would determine whether Kenya would have a 1st round winner or a run off which is predicted as inevitable by statisticians. Mr. Odinga took the 90mins to charm Kenyans in the debate which is a play of logic, but emotions and ultimate showmanship to connect with voters and sway the undecided voters.

Raila stayed away from combative politics and throughout the debate, he barely slammed his opponents instead stayed straight on his policies and visions. He also grabbed the chance to defend himself against accusations of inciting Maasai community against outsiders a misquotation that his opponents ran with, Odinga reiterated that he pledged to the Maasai community that NASA government would address poverty issues that have been the driving factor behind the selling of land at throw away prices.

On parallel tallying center, Raila cleverly didn’t dismiss rumors of NASA having a center in Tanzania but said the coalition will have a tallying center in Kenya and in the cloud. Highlights of his address were in single mothers empowerment, reducing housing cost and cost of living. Odinga stated that single mothers will be empowered with funds to help them bring up their children. He promised to enforce rent restricting act to cushion tenants from exploitative landlords. Addressing the high cost of living he said would be his first mandate in office.

“Political debating on television is a contact sport, the ultimate theater of performance, which can determine whether a candidate wins the ultimate prize or not. Debates are important and the declaration by the Kenyan Media to host the 2017 Presidential candidates debate is a step in the right direction of our nascent democracy.” Paul Achar, a communication analyst, and consultant.

While some would argue that the debates barely impact voting pattern and that tribal blocs are untouched for Odinga and Kenyatta some scientists would argue in contrary. Kenyatta’s chances of winning in the first round have declined to 49 percent from 62 percent in May, according to Emma Gordon, senior analyst at Bath, England-based Verisk Maplecroft.

The race is “too close to call accurately” and avoiding the second ballot has become more difficult, Gordon said. The government’s “mishandling” of maize shortages may boost the opposition by swinging undecided voters away from Kenyatta, Gordon said.

Nonetheless, Kenyan politics are always full of surprises, and no prediction is really safe. Opinion polls are not an exact science, and people can change their minds about whether to vote and who to vote for, on the basis of a good or bad campaign which is why the last minute campaigns are crucial. The elections are also becoming increasingly close, as the NASA campaign picks up speed. Raila Odinga and NASA could still win the presidency, and the outcome will probably be determined by the turnout in the NASA and Jubilee strongholds. The winner of 8/8 is too early to call but based on his performance at the debate night, one thing is for sure, Odinga won many hearts and his statesmanship show, earned him respect and admiration from even the most of his enemies.

 

‘Having no interest in politics doesn’t mean politics will have no interest in you’

Peace is definitely what everyone is opting for but where the Peace preachers and Ambassadors led by Julie Gichuru miss the mark is failing or ignoring to address and settle Real issues that trigger Our peace dream to become a fallacy. Preaching peace is like Singing Acapella without instrumentals, not tantalizing. The price to pay for Peace with less than 2 weeks remaining to General Election is not affordable to us.

Temporary Interior CS Dr.Fred Matiang’i who holds Education and Interior Affairs dockets at the same time has to know Education docket is totally different from Interior affairs which take many portions on security matters. Perhaps this is the man I believed all along to be the most innocent man in Jubilee administration. From his last order, https://youtu.be/FvhHc52Lvns abolishing Oppositions democratic plan to protect their votes from scavengers through ‘Adopt-a-polling station’ mechanism has convinced me that best position for him is Education docket. Measures and policies he applies in Education ministry when dealing with Pupils and students have been successful and thumbs up forever but Security matters are not handled like dealing with Pupils and Students, it’s mixed-up and advanced.

Could this be the major reason why more and more procurement and importation of multi-million Shanghai made armoured personnel carriers at a time when Nurses are 50+ days on street demanding for better pay, multiple military and police recruitment is going on at this wee hours as government continues to water down Opposition plans in matters election because that mission is not a walk in the park. Now, these are the issues Peace Ambassadors ought to address not singing lullabies.

The Presidency is the site of libido and area of much concern than any other seat. 87% of Opposition NASA supporters according to latest polls released by IPSOS don’t believe the referee Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission(IEBC ) is up to the task to conduct free, fair and Credible elections. If you do the math for 87% of the 10million who sincerely are likely to vote in opposition decide enough is enough from government frustration, nothing other than turmoil is expected.

Before Matiang’i would have made ‘I know it all’ Order, he should have considered Behaviour choice of these large number of Angry and hungry jobless youths who are watching their votes being staggered with, being that mechanisms ought to be put in place to protect them are being sidelined by misuse of Power. Security department taking too much interest in IEBC decisions and schemes speaks louder words of government overshadowing its power. IEBC as an Independent body should be heard louder than any other person at this time, it must show us it’s truly loaded with its own water tank to counter and buffer the inferno by delivering Credible, Free and Fair elections.

Adopt a polling station according to my awareness is to be carried out by 450,000 Vigilant Volunteers across the 41,000 polling stations and which cost Kshs10,000/- to Adopt a single station hence Ksh410,000,000/- is being contributed through paybill no 991444.These volunteers are to help in Voter turn out to exercise by accessing voters that will fail to report and being watchdogs over malpractices.If you are a fan of Movie Series, try to access ‘Designated Survivor’ you will learn how State house matters and President Cabinets work.

We are a Nation governed by law, yes but Common sense doesn’t have to be written in the law. Thinking outside the box is not a talent if you can’t think once think twice and save this country. Recently opposition NASA foot soldier and SUNA East MP Junet Mohammed was arrested and detained in Homabay after truly making inciting ethnic based remarks, I kept my mouth shut and my keyboard off till I found substantiated evidence through a video footage

https://youtu.be/C23Dfc75qn4.

We have to call a spade a spade and not a big spoon. His detention was authentic and just. His statement that Raila will be President of Coastal region, Eastern and North Eastern, Nyanza and Western region was a message of ethnic division. He went ahead to state Raila Odinga will be Sworn in Tononoka ‘wapende wasipende’ but only when results are manipulated. With all measures above considered, we’ll be up to the task.

Written by: John Bosco

Twitter: @JohnBosco_Juma

 

Peace drums are getting louder as the decision-making day of 8/8 nears. One question that has been on many pro democratic minds is the motive behind peace crusades yet the country is not at war. Many have asked but none has been answered. Instead, we’ve seen the language of the incumbent’s transit from peace hullabaloo to issuing threats over illusory or predetermined violence. Margaret Kenyatta and Rachel Ruto are out in the streets trying to outshine the mobile, commercial Jivanjee Gardens preachers with peace prayer rallies. A common question that remains is as to what these people know that the rest of Kenyans don’t.

Kenya has had a history of electoral fraud over 60 years and became rife in 1992,1997 general elections that were not only marred with open fraud but accompanied with intimidation and police terror. In these horrific scenarios, peace has been the common denominator used to silence dissents. In 2002 when Kenya had enough of the 24 years of Moi’s oppressive rule, a new era was opened. For the first time in the history of Kenya since 1963, Kenya had an open and democratic election and this is attributed to the Saba Saba movement that legitimized multi party system Kenya and incorporated electoral amendments. The proponents of these privileges like James Orengo, Martin Shikiku, Raila Odinga, Paul Muite amongst the rest of Saba Saba movements, knew electoral fraud was a key instigator of post election violence that often rocked the country.

After a successful 2002 elections, Kenyans thought they had advanced and matured democratically but sadly Mwai Kibaki who was amongst the democracy fighters rolled back the country to the dark window when he bangled the elections in 2007 sending the country into its darkest moments of ethnic violence. Over 1200 people were killed and 300K+ displaced. The Democratic progress that had been made was erased in a flash, thanks to power hunger and selfishness to keep Kibaki in power in an election that was clearly won by Raila.

Democracy engineers advanced with their course and by 2013 elections, Kenya had assumed stronger electoral body IEBC which was a presumed professional body than the predecessor’s ECK and a much stronger and again presumably independent commission. Previously, electoral fraud was widely committed and the aggrieved referred to the judiciary where they’d met an already compromised bench. the executive had an immense influence on Thu judiciary. 2013 we didn’t experience an inch of chaos for the fact that Kenyans had faith in the judiciary and it’s independence but as the ruling came in favor of Jubilee despite broadcasted discrepancies, Kenyans lost faith in the two most vital democratic space institutions.

Kenyans are being bombarded with peace messages but peace is an expensive price to pay for a lasting sanity. IEBC is going into an election with shredded public trust, it beams compromised and partisan commission. The credibility of the commission which is key in results acceptance has been dwindling by the day and they have themselves to blame for own undoing. From contesting popular court rulings to back door tender awarding like the case of Al Ghurair, IEBC is like a firefighter in the middle of an inferno without water in the tank. A coordinated attack is being reigned on the judiciary to make it look as opposition aligned, this is a clever way of preparing opposition to contest a stolen election in court where 2013 petition will replay to the end.

Justice as of our national anthem; remains our shield and defender, injustice is the mother of conflict. In an election, justice is served by allowing the voices of the majority be heard. This is through an impeccable, free, fair and credible elections that will be flawless and accepted by all sides. If we preach peace yet the same time undermining the vital institutions preserving peaceable democracy as Judiciary and IEBC then we’re scratching our butts and expecting sweet smelling fingers. Strong democratic bodies and acceptance of majority voice will ensure peace.

As if writing this, 28 anti riot armored vehicles have docked at the Mombasa airport ready to reign terror in protesters in what is starting to look like a preempted and forced violence. The police have also been timely awarded a 100% pay hike to do a good job in coming days. The authorities have been vocal about the violence what do they know that the public doesn’t? The tongue only speaks what the mind knows.

A pathetically choreographed series of micro violence has been witnessed in the last 4 days from a horrible stage managed jeering of DO Ruto in Kisumu where the Jubilee duo were generally and warmly welcomed in Nyanza to a horrendous burning of campaign material of NASA in Kabarnet which was dubbed a Kisumu retaliatory attack to the very rock bottom stunning of Raila convoy in Thika by hired goons in Jubilee gears. Who takes party gears as flags; t-shirts to protest I I opponent, a clear sign of organized protests. All these as a dry run. The country is struggling with high costs of living, lack of basic commodities as Unga then you ship in expensive police armory as if Kenya is going to a war and not election. Before we forgive you for the Mitumba APCs that have been death traps for our officers being minced in terror war zones and you ship in another scandal.

The message is simple and clear, Kenya had invested a lot to have this new constitution that empowers institutions and guarantees democracy, instead of investing in anti riot armory to kill own citizens, Kenya ought to strengthen and uphold the independence of democratic institutions as the judiciary and electoral bodies. Kenya doesn’t need armory but democracy. Peace is too expensive to buy when the majority voice is curtailed. And peace out of fear not peace, that’s a time bomb. Peace must not be allowed as the muzzling focal point as electoral fraud is committed and democratic institutions burnt to ashes.

 

Every war is fought with different battle tactics even if the soldiers are the same, the generals close themselves in, study the war and come up with the most suitable winning strategy. Nobody goes into a war to lose, that’s why Jubilee is using all the machinery including trickery to win the votes, NASA is on the other end showing no signs of foolery, they’re knees deep in for a win.

Politics is not a cotton factory, this is not a church, this is a dirty, muddy battlefield for the strong hearted. Propaganda is a preferred weapon especially when you have much dirt on your shoulders to engage in issue-based discussions. The president pulled out of the anticipated presidential debate, perhaps he hadn’t purchased enough handkerchiefs to wipe himself should the questions on the economic and social state of the country questions come his way. On seeing his main opponent had chickened out, Raila too bowed out of the arrangement. This denied Kenyans opportunity to take the president to task over his performance and how Raila plans to do things differently.

If there’s any campaign that has left an incumbent without a concrete campaign platform then it is 2017’s. Jubilee easily slid into power in 2013 hanging on the ICC string which was not only the bonding note but core campaign agenda. The youthfulness face Uhuru and Ruto were bringing in was also an appealing vector. Fast forward to 2017, the duo has been in power, Kenyans have had a taste now the dilemma struck the strategists on what to sell. Initially, development track record was to be the main campaign agenda, a portal that struggles to get traffic was launched and major media campaign with ads running on hundreds of millions run in key media outlets. However, it hasn’t gone as planned, you wouldn’t blame the woman in the village with empty plates trying to keep her kids alive in the era of food scarcity and high inflation with development that she can’t feel. Jubilee developed the infrastructures and forgot the vital households where the development should be felt but not. The cost of living has dangerously gone up, highest in Kenya history.

Jubilee having no campaign agenda has been hanging on anything including water when they’re drowning. Raila has been their largest campaign agenda and a well choreographed fear-mongering strategies developed. While Raila phobia campaigns have been used especially on the central Kenya voters and worked before, 2017 the war went hi-tech, while the Kurias and Duales are in rallies going extreme, Jubilee hired bad ass PR company Cambridge Analytica to do the dirty job. You must have come across pages as ‘the real Raila ‘ ‘Uhuru for Us’ which have nothing but a full wedged war on the personality of Raila. They’ve gone a notch higher with fear-mongering ads that have left many shocked.

The Jubilee principals have in the recent past time on extreme combative campaign mode. The anger in their rallies has left the country wondering what could be going on. In his book ‘Surviving Political Campaigns, Politics and Politicians ‘ Robert A. Nowlan a political scientist on anger tuned politics he says, ” There are issues in National Politics that need to be explored in every presidential election. However, candidates have become less and less forthcoming with what they can bring to the most difficult job in the world. They fear being clear about where they stand on issues may annoy some segment of the electorate and cost them votes. Instead, they resort to mudslinging, character assassination and attack ads.”

In reference to empty campaign platform, it doesn’t come as a surprise that Jubilee has now resorted to deviating tactics to avoid facing the real issues facing Kenyans more specifically cost of living and unemployment, they’re now attacking everyone and anything including unfertilised eggs. Character assassination on opposition’s main candidate Raila has been steadied now just heightened. However, the strategy is not meant to win new votes, but to lay a foundation for a bigger scheme, the international community also targeted. The intent is to paint Raila stereotypically as a perennial loser such that an electoral fraud could be committed and they use the same stereotypical bait to silence him and in the same line gain international and public stamp that he is a loser.

The political psychology behind anger theory would predict that anger increases the use of generalized knowledge and reliance upon stereotypes and other heuristics. An experiment on students at the University of Massachusetts Amherst showed that people who had been primed with an anger condition relied less upon issue-concordance when choosing between candidates than those who had been primed with fear. In a separate laboratory study, subjects primed with the anger emotion were significantly less likely to seek information about a candidate and spent less time reviewing a candidate’s policy positions on the web. Now you see the connection with Jubilee strategy.

War monger, even without ring specific, Raila has been branded such, when the former PM addressed a rally in Kajiado jumping into a major crisis of land and warning the Maasais against selling their land to investors at a throwaway price because of poverty. This statement was the blessing Jubilee brigades were preying for, it was propelled into a campaign agenda how Raila was inciting communities. The sterile NCIC too jumped on the bandwagon to initiate an investigation on a non starter. By branding Raila a violence advocate and blowing up such minor incidences, the intent being should there be a dispute, this will be used against him to restrict his democratic rights as calling for mass action to vent. Having been hanging in the public and international courts as a violent man, Raila will be as cooked. Everything you see, hear, is not by chance but well-choreographed political strategies and baits.

There’s nothing like good healthy anger to make one feel better. Voters need facts in making up their minds, something to think about beyond the fearmongering absurdities, meaningless statements, and accusations that may be untrue or at least misleading, meant to inspire hatred or at least great distrust of their opponents. Talking of anger, like in the Brexit, U.S., France scenarios the greatest and most crucial anger is that I the public who feel left out and not beneficial to the system. When this group decides to make a point, they won’t be seen but will be heard. There’s a public anger.

The fear of losing power, the transition from the head of state to head I your house as a private citizen, the fear of losing influence, friends, the fear of losing state privileges would make even the Pope lose his cool. In Africa they also say, if the gods wants to destroy you, they first get you mad and on the final day, every tree in the forest is slippery to the monkey.