Kenya Insights

Category: Opinion

  • Child Early Forced Marriages are illegal! Wajir’s 17-Year-old Gaala Aden Needs Justice

    Child Early Forced Marriages are illegal! Wajir’s 17-Year-old Gaala Aden Needs Justice

    Child early forced marriages even when illegal in Kenya continue to be practiced in different cultures. These practiceseven when largely come out of culture, some are from poverty related challenges that families face.

    Gaala Aden, a 17-Year-old child who was supposed to be in school, to make her present and future better for herself was killed. In what was supposed to be a holy time, Ramadhan, a 17-year-old girl was burnt and killed in Wajir. Being from a refugee environment, the environment could be challenging. Gaala and other girls are not and will never be commodities for trade off. Gaala, had a dream, she had rights, she had a future, she had a voice but all this was shattered in the name of an illegality, in the name of practices that we have continued to pick from our cultures and religion.

    Even in living with the man for about 27 days, she faced a lot of violence from the man who she was forced to be with and even when she refused the marriage, her defiance was met with death. Her body was killed and set on fire by men for refusing to marry a 55-year-old man. A girl whose body was burned, beaten by the relative to force her into submission is a scenario filled with so much pain.

    The selfish nature of the political class to not speak, shout about this matter is wanting. Their priorities seeming very lost in what they were voted for. She Needs Justice, Justice should not be selective. In the same breath that MPs have been using to defend their own leaders, so should they be seen in Wajirshouting and calling for Justice. We should call out these MPs suffering from “selective amnesia” when they prioritize their selfish interest, while ignoring the loss of innocent lives.

    The role of the family in this story is also wanting. When Gaala, shared voice notes to the mother about the violence she was experiencing would have been a wake-up call to go get their child back. The role of family in progressing these social issues must be called out. It was wrong for the mother for whatever reason to marry of their child. Child protection systems should be enhanced, this would have saved Gaala.

    This is a very tragic and horrifying case that demands immediate justice. This continues to be a reminder of the deep-rooted issues of violence against girls and women in all their diversities including child forced early marriages. The impact of various forms of culture and religion are quite evident in this case. This case must be followed to its completion. Out of court settlements must not be seen. The law must supersede religion.

    The police and the cultural leaders need to be held to account, any signs of danger must always be reported and action taken. Let’s call out these injustices that different people in our communities continue to face, for the sex workers who may be abused, killed, to the queer folks facing depression, women we have lost from femicide, to women who we lose from unsafe abortions.

    These practices that continue to be practiced in our different tribes and religion need to be put to an end. From importing and progressing hate, violence against different diverse peoplein our communities, to religious leaders. Gaala, is one of the many girls who have continued to be denied protection, education. We need concrete action, stronger and proper enforcement of laws.

    Stand for the rights and dignity of girls and women, we must demand for accountability, transparency in this action.  Justice must take shape and take action now! The late Gaala Aden and the others who have been forced to marriages need to get justice.

    Alvin Mwangi

    Youth Activist, Reproductive Health

    X – @alvinmwangi254

  • Charles Nyachae: Scandalous History Comes to Haunt Ruto’s Blue-Eyed Boy Favoured for IEBC Chairperson

    Charles Nyachae: Scandalous History Comes to Haunt Ruto’s Blue-Eyed Boy Favoured for IEBC Chairperson

    As Kenya braces for the high-stakes 2027 elections, the selection of the next Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) Chairperson has taken a contentious turn.

    Among the 37 candidates shortlisted by the recruitment panel is Charles Nyachae, a veteran lawyer and former chair of the Commission on the Implementation of the Constitution (CIC).

    With interviews set to conclude by April 25, 2025, and whispers of President William Ruto’s favouritism swirling, Nyachae’s chequered past is raising red flags about his suitability to helm an electoral body promising a “stainless” process.

    The stakes couldn’t be higher. The IEBC selection panel, reconstituted after legal battles and accusations of Ruto stalling to avert a constitutional crisis, has shortlisted 1,356 candidates for chairperson and commissioner roles.

    From these, two names will be presented to the President for the top job, and nine for six commissioner slots.

    Yet, Nyachae’s emergence as a frontrunner—allegedly Ruto’s preferred pick—threatens to undermine public trust in an institution tasked with delivering impartiality in one of Kenya’s most consequential polls.

    A Politically Tainted Track Record

    Nyachae, 67, is no stranger to Kenya’s political elite. The son of the late Simeon Nyachae, a towering figure in Kenyan politics, Charles has repeatedly aligned himself with ruling powers.

    In 2017, he ran for Kisii County governor on a Jubilee ticket under Uhuru Kenyatta, only to be rejected by voters.

    Undeterred, he switched allegiance to Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in 2022, managing the President’s campaign in Kisii County before losing again to Simba Arati, who garnered 270,928 votes.

    This flip-flopping raises a glaring question: can a man so deeply entwined with Ruto’s political machinery be trusted to oversee a fair election in 2027?

    Charles Nyachae, while still serving as a Judge in East Africa Court of Justice attends a political function with Ruto in December 2020.

    Political insiders whisper that Nyachae’s loyalty has earned him Ruto’s nod, a claim that, if true, casts a shadow over the panel’s promise of merit-based selection.

    Faith Odhiambo, President of the Law Society of Kenya, recently warned the panel against producing “incompetent candidates,” urging them to prioritize “proven records of competence and integrity.”

    Nyachae’s resume, however, tells a different story—one of ambition, failure, and unanswered questions.

    CIC Tenure: A Legacy of Missed Opportunities?

    Nyachae’s most prominent public role came as CIC chair from 2011 to 2016, tasked with implementing the 2010 Constitution.

    It was a golden opportunity to cement his legacy, yet critics argue he squandered it.

    Chapter 6, meant to enforce leadership integrity and combat corruption, remains a toothless provision under his watch, with systemic graft still plaguing Kenya.

    While Nyachae admitted to implementation hurdles in 2015—blaming low public participation and institutional clashes—his detractors say he failed to push for robust legislation, leaving the anti-corruption fight floundering.

    Devolution, another cornerstone of the Constitution, also stumbled. Nyachae once declared it “irreversible,” but the lack of clear handover regulations to counties during his tenure contributed to the ongoing devolution crisis.

    Was this a systemic failure or a personal one? The jury is out, but for a man eyeing the IEBC chair, such ambiguity is a liability.

    EACJ Exit and Family Feuds

    Charles Nyachae
    Charles Nyachae being sworn in as Judge of the East African Court of Justice in February 2018.

    Nyachae’s recent resignation from the East African Court of Justice (EACJ) in November 2023 adds another layer of intrigue.

    Representing Kenya at the regional court, he stepped down without explanation, just as high-profile cases—like Mike Sonko’s impeachment challenge and Martha Karua’s 2022 election petition—loomed.

    Was he dodging the heat, and if so, on whose behalf? For a potential IEBC chair, expected to withstand intense electoral pressure, this abrupt exit raises doubts about his resilience.

    Closer to home, Nyachae is locked in an ugly succession battle over his father’s multi-billion-shilling estate, estimated at over Sh2 billion.

    Appointed an administrator alongside siblings Angela and Eric, he faces off against stepmother Grace Wamuyu and others, with mediators now stepping in.

    This public family feud could distract him from the IEBC’s demanding role—or worse, signal a man more preoccupied with personal gain than public service.

    Age and the Pressure Test

    At 67, Nyachae’s age is another sticking point. The IEBC chairmanship is a pressure cooker—think 2017’s annulled election or 2022’s razor-thin margins.
    Critics question whether he can endure the strain, pointing to his EACJ resignation as a sign he might buckle.

    While he could argue experience trumps youth, but with no clear explanation for his judicial exit, the concern lingers: will he quit again when the going gets tough?

    Media Silence: A Clean Slate or a Cover-Up?

    Curiously, mainstream media has been muted on Nyachae’s scandals, often framing him as a “clean” alternative to candidates like James Oswago and Anne Amadi, whose pasts are tainted by corruption allegations.

    This selective spotlight—focusing on his CIC credentials while glossing over his political baggage and family woes—smacks of bias.

    Has the press been co-opted to polish his image, as some allege, or is Nyachae simply flying under the radar?

    Either way, the lack of scrutiny leaves Kenyans in the dark about a man who could shape their electoral future.

    The Bigger Picture

    DP WIlliam Ruto makes the collars of East Africa court of justice Judge Charles Nyachae at his Karen residence office in Nairobi on October 14, 2020.

    Nyachae’s candidacy isn’t just about one man—it’s a litmus test for the IEBC selection panel’s credibility.

    After months of legal wrangling and accusations of Ruto buying time, the panel vowed a transparent process.

    Yet, with a politically connected figure like Nyachae in the mix, that promise hangs by a thread.

    The 2027 elections will test Kenya’s democracy after a rocky reign by president Ruto who is under constant pressure from the youths leading to widespread protests, and the IEBC chair must be above reproach.

    Nyachae’s history—rife with political loyalty, unfulfilled potential, and personal entanglements—suggests he may fall short.

    As the April 25 deadline nears, Kenyans deserve answers.

    Can Charles Nyachae rise above his past, or will Ruto’s blue-eyed boy drag the IEBC into another quagmire?
    For a nation still scarred by electoral mistrust, the stakes are too high to gamble on a tainted legacy.

  • Kenya, Like the United States, Is a Country Made Up of Immigrants

    Kenya, Like the United States, Is a Country Made Up of Immigrants

    Kenya, like the United States of America (USA), is a country made up of immigrants. For example, Kenya’s Kalenjins, Luos and Maasais, came to Kenya from Egypt (via Sudan), about 4,000 years ago, Kenya’s Somalis came to Kenya from Abyssinia/Ethiopia about 2,000 years ago, Kenya’s Merus came to Kenya from Tanzania about 2,000 years ago and there is even a Mt. Meru in Tanzania, Kenya’s Abaluhyia community came to Kenya from Sudan about 2,000 years ago, Kenya’s Whites and Asians came to Kenya in the 19th and 20th centuries, and Kenya’s Kikuyus came to Kenya from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) about 2,000 years ago.
    Apart from Kenya’s Whites and Asians, who did the rest of us find when we came to Kenya those many years ago? Who did we “colonise” when we came here? If Kenya’s Whites and Asians are “colonialists,” then the rest of us too are “colonialists,” because we must have found different communities here in Kenya when we came those many years ago.
    And on a related note, a light one, Daniel T. arap Moi (1924 to 2020), was Vice President of Kenya from 1967 to 1978, and President of Kenya from 1978 to 2002. Daniel T. arap Moi was from Kenya’s Kalenjin community. Salim Ahmed Bamahriz (1942 to 2016), was one of six founder members of Kenya’s Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) political party, the other five being Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, George Nthenge, Philip Gachoka, Martin Shikuku and Masinde Muliro. FORD looked united and formidable in early 1992, looked like they were set to dislodge the Kenya African National Union (KANU), from power at Kenya’s General Elections of 1992. There were however internal wrangles in FORD in mid-1992, leading to the split of FORD into two, that is, FORD-Kenya lead by Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, and FORD-Asili led by Kenneth Stanley Njindo Matiba. The split weakened FORD, and contributed to KANU’s victory at the 1992 elections.
    Salim Ahmed Bamhriz traced his ancestry to Yemen, and Daniel T. arap Moi traced his ancestry to Sudan. In early 1992, President Daniel T. arap Moi, at a public rally, said that Salim Ahmed Bamahriz should “go back to Yemen.” Salim Ahmed Bamahriz was a fast thinker and good with words too, and Salim Ahmed Bamahriz responded to President Moi by saying that yes indeed, he would catch the next flight to Yemen, but told President Moi to be on that flight too, so that he could be dropped off in Sudan, for good, as the flight proceeded to Yemen to drop off Salim Ahmed Bamhriz in Yemen, for good.
    There also used to be a vocal White Kenyan in the 1990s based in Nakuru, Kenya, who’s name this writer does not immediately remember. In the late 1990s there was a charged debate on “Who owns Kenya” in the “Letters to the Editor” page of Kenya’s “Daily Nation” newspaper that went on for about two months, before the Editor of “Daily Nation” closed the debate. Highly charged letters from different parts of Kenya were published in the “Letters to the Editor” page of the “Daily Nation” during that about two month period.
    In one of the letters, the White Kenyan mentioned above, who’s name this writer does not immediately remember, was told “to pack up his belongings and return to Britain with immediate effect.” He responded in the affirmative, saying he that he would indeed return back to Britain “with immediate effect,” but that as he did so, all other Kenyans should “also do likewise” with regard to their origins and ancestries, as he listed, in his letter, where many of us came from, and the approximate periods in time that our forebearers/forefathers/ancestors arrived in Kenya.
    So, “Who owns Kenya?” Remarks made by Smith Hempstone in the year 1989 could guide us on this. Who is Smith Hempstone? Smith Hempstone (1926 to 2006), was America’s ambassador to Kenya from 1989 to 1993. In the 1970s and 1980s, there was widespread killing of Kenya’s wildlife for food, sport and sale abroad as “trophies/decorative ornaments/wall items.” Many Kenyans who hunted wildlife back then in the 1970s and 1980s, did so for subsistence, did so for food, while many tourists who hunted wildlife in Kenya back then in the 1970s and 1980s, did so for “fashion,” for sport. For example, a helicopter with White tourists would land in a Kenyan national park or Kenyan game reserve back then, and one or two individuals with powerful rifles would disembark from the helicopter and shot dead, on the spot, a rhino, a lion, or an elephant, take photographs and video along the dead animal, and then leave. That was it. Local Kenyans would then move in fast and cut up the dead animal for food. It was even said back then, that lion meat is “tasty and delicious.”
    And then guess what? Local Kenyans back then who hunted wildlife were referred to as “poachers” while well heeled tourists back then who hunted wildlife in Kenya, some of whom came in private jets, were referred to, not as “poachers,” but as “hunters.” Almost all were White, bringing about the mismatch and contradiction of “Black Poachers vs. White Hunters.”
    When Smith Hempstone arrived in Kenya in 1989 as America’s ambassador to Kenya, one of his key agendas was to bring an end to the killing of wildlife in Kenya. Indeed, Dr. Richard Leakey (1944 to 2022), was appointed Director of the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS), with a generous budget, generous personnel, and sophisticated equipment to combat “poachers” and “hunters.” A significant amount of funding for Dr. Richard Leakey’s task-at-hand was made available by the US Government. George H.W. Bush (the senior George Bush), was US President at the time.
    Kenyan parliamentarians at the time came down hard on both Smith Hempstone and the US Government for “interfering in the affairs of Kenya,” telling both Smith Hempstone and the US Government that Kenya was not “an American colony.”
    Smith Hempstone’s response was interesting. He said that Kenya’s wildfire did not belong to the Kenyan people, per se, but to global society in general, and that we Kenyans were simply the custodians and caretakers of Kenya’s wildlife, for the benefit of current and future generations of mankind.
    So who does the Republic of Kenya as a whole belong to? To we Kenyans, or to global society in general? Are we, the current generations of Kenyans, simply the current custodians, current caretakers and current trustees of the land area known as Republic of Kenya, for the benefit of current and future generations of mankind?
    Smith Hempstone did and does have a broader point, because none of us created what we today know as the Republic of Kenya, none of us created the planet Earth as a whole? Those of us of present times found the Republic of the Kenya and shall leave it behind. Those of us of present times found the planet Earth as a whole and shall leave it behind. It is our creator, the creator of mankind, and the creator of planet Earth, who could actually give guidance on “who owns what.” Does anybody have the telephone number or email address of our creator?

    And on a related note too, check out the interesting five minute video on our mixed ancestries and mixed heritages, at the YouTube link below:

    Momondo: The DNA Journey | Ancestry

  • Stop Pretending to Be Good; You Are Immoral and Tainting Maraga’s Image,” Kenyans Tell Justus Munyithya

    Stop Pretending to Be Good; You Are Immoral and Tainting Maraga’s Image,” Kenyans Tell Justus Munyithya

    Kituo Cha Sheria Chairperson Justus Munyithya has come under fire for his alleged involvement in immoral activities, which are said to be contributing to the imminent collapse of the organization.

    Kenyans and legal stakeholders have criticized Munyithya for his hypocritical stance on police brutality while being accused of engaging in unethical behavior himself.

    Several individuals, including senior advocates, have condemned Munyithya for his role in the illegal dismissal of staff members and for practicing nepotism in the institution’s hiring processes.

    Munyithya, who was recently featured on Citizen TV alongside former Chief Justice David Maraga, has been accused of using his position to promote corruption within the organization.

    Furthermore, Munyithya has been accused of forcefully pushing for the appointment of John Mwariri, an allegedly unqualified individual, to the position of Chief Executive Officer within the organization to advance his own questionable agenda.

    It has been revealed that Munyithya has repeatedly disregarded the laws and regulations governing Kituo Cha Sheria, leading to a significant breakdown in governance and accountability.

    As the scandal continues to unfold, Kenyans are calling for Munyithya to be held accountable for his actions.

    They are also urging former Chief Justice David Maraga to distance himself from the disgraced chairperson. The future of Kituo Cha Sheria now hangs in the balance as the organization grapples with the fallout from Munyithya’s alleged misconduct.

  • Mary Muthoni’s Social Media Circus: A Masterclass in Desperation as Health PS Spams Her Way to (Un)Popularity!

    Mary Muthoni’s Social Media Circus: A Masterclass in Desperation as Health PS Spams Her Way to (Un)Popularity!

    With Kenya’s political landscape shifting like quicksand beneath our feet, the rumored 2025 cabinet reshuffle has sent a jolt of panic through the ranks of Principal Secretaries (PSs).

    These technocrats, once cloaked in the quiet dignity of bureaucratic competence, have morphed into frenzied spin doctors, scrambling to paint themselves as indispensable in the eyes of President William Ruto.

    The Public Service Commission (PSC) recently forwarded a list of freshly interviewed candidates for PS slots, and while the president’s final picks are pending, the smart money says political horse-trading—not merit—will tip the scales.

    In this high-stakes game, competence is just a footnote; visibility is the golden ticket.

    And oh, how the PSs are clawing for it. It’s a silent tug-of-war, a gladiatorial showdown of egos where outshining one’s peers is the name of the game.

    Social media has become their Colosseum, with carefully curated campaigns flooding our feeds—each post a calculated plea to catch the president’s eye.

    Then there are the media blitzes, the strategic leaks, and those oh-so-convenient opinion polls. You know the ones—cooked up by pollsters who’d sell their grandmothers for a fat envelope, churning out rankings so skewed they’d make a funhouse mirror blush. It’s an open secret in Nairobi’s corridors of power: these polls aren’t data; they’re propaganda, bought and paid for by the very officials they crown.

    As the reshuffle clock ticks down, desperation has kicked into overdrive. Some PSs are subtle, dropping breadcrumbs of “hard work” with the finesse of seasoned chess players. Others? They’re swinging sledgehammers, smashing decorum to bits in their quest to be noticed. And then there’s the queen of this cringe-inducing circus:Public Health Principal Secretary Mary Muthoni —whose antics have crossed from desperate to downright insufferable.

    Let’s not mince words: Muthoni’s behavior is a masterclass in how to alienate everyone while clutching at relevance.

    Her ministry’s track record is a dumpster fire—stumbling through the Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF) and Social Health Authority (SHA) rollout like a drunk toddler on a tricycle.

    Private Hospitals have stopped offering services to teachers, police and other civil servants over unpaid bills amounting to billions. And that’s not even touching the Mpox outbreak she supposedly “contained” with “robust strategies”—a claim so hollow it echoes louder than her incessant X posts.

    There are also there threats of looming strikes by doctors across the country.

    Laughable poll rankings

    Yet, somehow, amidst this parade of flops, Muthoni’s name keeps popping up in dubious polls—Politrack Africa’s February 2025 survey had her at a laughable 76.2% approval rating.

    Really? For what—perfecting the art of tweeting through a crisis? These plastic rankings scream sponsorship, and Kenyans aren’t buying it.

    But Muthoni doesn’t stop there. Oh no. She’s taken her desperation to a new low, turning X into her personal spam factory.

    Her posts—promoted to the point of absurdity—stalk every comment section, every thread, like a digital rash you can’t scratch off. It’s bot-like, it’s blatant, and it’s backfired spectacularly.

    Users are calling her out—“Hiyo account ya Mary Muthoni nimemute,” one wrote recently, echoing a growing chorus fed up with her propaganda flood.

    This isn’t leadership; it’s a tantrum. Muthoni’s spamming isn’t about showcasing work—it’s about drowning out the silence of her own mediocrity.

    If her achievements were half as loud as her social media noise, maybe we’d see a functioning SHA or a health system that doesn’t leave cancer patients in limbo.

    Instead, she’s betting on algorithms and paid bots to scream “I’m working!” louder than the evidence ever could.

    Speculation swirls that she’s gunning for Ruto’s favor, perhaps angling to dodge the reshuffle axe—or, dare we say, snag a bigger role. But here’s the rub: true competence doesn’t need a megaphone. It shines through results, not retweets.

    Kenyans aren’t fools. The calls for mass blocking are rising, and the backlash is palpable. Muthoni’s become the poster child for everything wrong with this pre-reshuffle frenzy—a desperate climber who’d rather spam than serve.

    If she wants the president’s attention, here’s a wild idea: fix the damn health system.

    Stop flooding our timelines and start delivering something—anything—worth a damn. Because right now, the only thing she’s catching is the collective eye-roll of a nation tired of her irritating, agenda-driven charade.

  • OPINION – What US-Russia Talks Mean for China and Global Diplomacy?

    OPINION – What US-Russia Talks Mean for China and Global Diplomacy?

    By Mabel Lu Miao

    – The author is the co-founder and secretary general of the Center for China and Globalization

    The meeting between US and Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia has become a focal point of international attention, bringing new hope for the normalization of Russia-Ukraine relations. Following extensive talks, both sides reached agreements on several issues, sparking international debate. Among the three main agreements, the establishment of a consultation mechanism and the creation of a high-level team to support Ukraine’s peace talks have laid the groundwork for communication in seeking a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Restoring diplomatic efforts signals a thaw in US-Russia relations, paving the way for future cooperation. The agreement to establish closer ties, including economic cooperation after the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, demonstrates a positive expectation for future peace and stability.

    However, this process is not without challenges. Ukraine sees the US’ actions as a betrayal, fearing it will lose international standing and face increased pressure from Russia. European leaders are also concerned that the US is negotiating directly with Russia without their involvement, fearing their interests are being overlooked. After all, Europe has invested heavily in the Russia-Ukraine conflict over the past three years, with deep economic and geopolitical ties. Being excluded from crucial negotiations is naturally difficult for Europe to accept.

    From the perspective of international morality and the principles of international law, territorial integrity and sovereignty are fundamental and inviolable principles. Any peace agreement should be reached based on respect for international law and the United Nations Charter. While the US and Russia have reached a consensus, the challenge now lies in how to implement these agreements, coordinate the interests of all parties, and, in particular, address Ukraine’s legitimate demands and convince Europe to accept the outcome.

    China-US relations

    China has always maintained an objective and neutral stance, actively advocating for peace and promoting dialogue. A Foreign Ministry spokesperson expressed support for the consensus on US-Russia peace talks and hopes that all parties and stakeholders will participate in the dialogue process in due time. This reflects China’s responsible role as a major power in international affairs, not siding with any party but striving to promote a comprehensive, fair, and sustainable peace solution. Regarding the normalization of US-Russia relations, China does not share concerns that a closer US-Russia relationship will significantly alter US-China ties. In fact, the Trump administration has placed less emphasis on China during its second term, and there is no evidence suggesting that a US-Russia rapprochement would lead to a concentrated effort to counter China.

    First, US President Donald Trump has always been focused on deal-making, with his primary goal being to boost the US economy and deliver tangible results for domestic voters. In this context, his most important “deal” would be with China, as it is the world’s second-largest economy and largest trading partner. In contrast, Russia’s economy is much smaller and now ranks outside the global top ten. Consequently, a major economic confrontation with China would not align with the core economic interests of the current US administration.

    Second, Trump seeks to engage with Russia and improve relations quickly, primarily to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. He has consistently argued that the US has invested too much in this conflict, which he sees as not directly concerning US territory. He believes Europe should contribute more to the “protection fee.” Trump also aspires to be seen as a “peace president” and win the Nobel Peace Prize, which explains his emphasis on these goals. In this context, normalizing US-Russia relations is a rational move.

    Third, the US may seek China’s support in rebuilding Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure after the war. The close relationship between Russia and China also plays a significant role in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. As a result, US-Russia discussions will not pose a threat to China’s interests.

    China-Europe relations

    China-Europe relations are entering a new phase, as Trump’s administration places less emphasis on Europe, altering previous strategic alignments. 2025 marks the 50th anniversary of China-Europe diplomatic relations. The prospects for bilateral and multilateral cooperation are vast, and Europe can still play a positive role as part of the China-US-Europe triangular relationship in balancing Sino-US relations, enhancing international multilateral cooperation, and promoting the improvement of global governance.

    This US-Russia meeting is only the beginning. Future negotiations, particularly on territory and security guarantees, will likely be complex and prolonged. The international community must work together, actively participate in coordination, and encourage all parties to resolve disputes through peaceful dialogue, so that peace and stability can be restored in the Russia-Ukraine region as soon as possible. This not only serves the interests of both Russia and Ukraine but also meets the needs of global peace and development.

  • Setting the Record Straight on Wildlife Conservation and Ecological Justice

    Setting the Record Straight on Wildlife Conservation and Ecological Justice

    By Mwenda Mbaka.

    In recent debates about Africa’s natural heritage, certain narratives have emerged that not only misrepresent the facts but also endanger the very ecosystems on which we all depend. In this post, I respond to misleading claims about conservation and global institutions—such as those presented in an open letter published by The Chronicle (see link)—with the aim of clarifying misconceptions, highlighting robust scientific findings, and advocating for genuine, community-driven conservation in Africa.

    Challenging the Trophy Hunting Narrative

    Claims that trophy hunting serves as a beneficial conservation tool have been challenged by numerous peer-reviewed studies. In reality, the economic benefits of trophy hunting are disproportionately captured by foreign outfitters, corrupt intermediaries, and a select few elites, while local communities often endure ecosystem degradation and increased human–wildlife conflict. Furthermore, targeting the largest and oldest individuals in animal populations disrupts the social structures of species – such as elephants and lions – leaving herds leaderless and more vulnerable to incursions into human settlements. Such disruptions can lead to property destruction, violent conflicts with casualties on both sides, compromised livelihoods, and even the transmission of zoonotic diseases between wildlife and domestic animals (Loveridge et al., 2007)​.

    Unmasking the True Drivers of Human – Wildlife Conflict

    While some argue that strict hunting bans are responsible for rising human–wildlife conflict, the real culprits lie in habitat destruction and ecosystem fragmentation. Industrial land clearance, the fencing of migratory routes, and unsustainable agricultural expansion are forcing wildlife into closer proximity with human communities. Rather than clinging to outdated models like trophy hunting, our focus should shift toward restoring wildlife corridors, investing in community-based conservation, and promoting sustainable ecotourism (Nyhus, 2016)​.

    CITES and International NGOs: Guardians of Biodiversity

    Contrary to some criticisms, the conservation frameworks embodied by CITES and the work of international NGOs are grounded in robust scientific evidence. These organizations have generated critical data on the impacts of overfishing, commercial hunting, deforestation, and habitat destruction. Their mission is not driven by profit but by a commitment to protecting Africa’s biodiversity against forces that have historically plundered the continent’s natural wealth for the benefit of a few. Accusing these organizations of ulterior motives – despite the wealth of objectively obtained data published in reputable, peer-reviewed journals – not only insults science but also represents a regressive outlook on the fate of our planet, which urgently calls upon us to change our ways (Hughes et al., 2012)​.

    Rejecting Divisive Geopolitical Narratives

    Framing conservation as a contest between geopolitical rivals, such as pitting Americans against the Chinese, as seen in the aforementioned open letter, is both divisive and dangerous. At a time when the global community must unite to confront climate change and biodiversity loss, reducing conservation debates to nationalistic battles distracts from the urgent work needed to protect our shared planet. True conservation transcends borders and should be a collaborative, global endeavor.

    Africa’s Fight for Ecological Justice

    As an African and lifelong advocate for our natural heritage, I believe that our struggle must center on ecological justice. This means confronting the historical exploitation of our water systems, forests, wildlife, and cultural heritage by both foreign and local elites. Instead of aligning with narratives that undermine our struggles, we must demand accountability, seek reparations for ecological debt, and implement policies that safeguard both the environmental and economic well-being of our communities.

    Individuals or entities that propagate narratives contributing to Africa’s continued ecological and economic marginalization must reflect on the long-term impact on our continent’s future. Ecological justice is a global imperative that transcends geopolitical boundaries – even though our cultures and races may differ, our shared humanity unites us.

    Reflections from the Field

    With over 30 years of experience as a veterinarian, and having served as the Animal Welfare Expert for the African Union Inter-Africa Bureau for Animal Resources (AU-IBAR), I have witnessed firsthand the ecological damage resulting from inadequate environmental governance. The loss of keystone species and the collapse of ecosystem services are not merely theoretical concerns but daily realities affecting millions of Africans. The exploitation of Africa’s natural resources benefits a privileged few while leaving local communities to shoulder the consequences of environmental degradation and economic instability.

    Africa has made significant strides in the right direction; for instance, it led the global community to adopt a United Nations Environmental Assembly Resolution recognizing the nexus between animal welfare, the environment, and sustainable development. Recognizing the importance of donkeys for many rural communities across the continent, the African Union ratified a moratorium on the slaughter of donkeys for their skins- a necessary measure in response to an illegal trade that had rendered countless communities destitute by stripping them of their essential means of mobility. For these communities, the donkey is often the only practical means of transportation, to fetch water, reach hospitals, attend school, and access vital supplies. However, some merchants, invoking national sovereignty to justify the exploitation of local resources, pushed back against the efforts of Civil Society Organizations and governments to promote a sustainable utilization of the donkey.This resistance has perpetuated a culture of cross-border theft and slaughter of donkeys, driven by demand in distant markets (Kisilu et al., 2016)​. The resolve that led to the protection of donkeys through the moratorium on its slaughter in Africa  forits skin, should now extend to safeguarding Africa’s wildlife from propagandists whose misinformation undermines our ecosystems.

    A Call for Genuine, Community-Driven Conservation

    The future of Africa’s wildlife and ecosystems depends on abandoning outdated, exploitative models in favor of scientifically sound, community-based conservation efforts. It is time to align our strategies with approaches championed by organizations such as CITES and other reputable conservation bodies. By focusing on ecological balance, protecting vulnerable communities, and ensuring a sustainable future for all Africans, we can begin to reverse centuries of environmental injustice.

    In closing, I urge critics of modern conservation – including the author of the aforementioned open letter – to reconsider their positions. Let us unite in the true fight for environmental justice- a fight that safeguards Africa’s natural wealth for current and future generations.

    Dr. Mwenda Mbaka; Veterinarian, Former AU-IBAR Animal Welfare Expert

    Selected References

    • Loveridge, A. J., et al. (2007). The impact of trophy hunting on lion (Panthera leo) populations in West Africa. Biological Conservation, 139(1-2), 161–168.
    • Nyhus, P. J. (2016). Human–wildlife conflict and coexistence. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 41, 143–171.
    • Hughes, A., et al. (2012). Effectiveness of CITES in protecting endangered species. Biological Conservation, 155, 123–129.
    • Kisilu, N., et al. (2016). Socio-economic impacts of the donkey skin trade in Africa. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 11(10), 903–912.
  • The Shifting World Order – Economic Power, Sovereignty, and AI as a New Threat

    The Shifting World Order – Economic Power, Sovereignty, and AI as a New Threat

    By Mwenda Mbaka, Feb 2025

    The modern global order, largely shaped by post-World War II economic structures and political alignments, is undergoing a profound transformation. With the potential decline of the US dollar as the dominant global currency, the resurgence of national sovereignty over internationalist policies, and the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) as an autonomous and potentially disruptive force, the geopolitical landscape of the future could look vastly different. This article explores these shifts, their implications, and the likely contours of the emerging world order, backed by peer-reviewed literature and geopolitical analyses.

    The Decline of the Dollar as the Global Reserve Currency

    For decades, the US dollar has served as the primary global reserve currency, underpinning international trade, financial stability, and America’s geopolitical influence. However, recent economic developments suggest a decline in its dominance. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have openly advocated for a shift away from dollar-based trade settlements, exploring alternatives such as the Chinese yuan, the euro, and digital currencies.

    A study by Eichengreen (2011) in the Journal of Economic Perspectives highlights that historical transitions in global currencies—such as the shift from the British pound to the US dollar post-World War II—were marked by economic restructuring, loss of confidence in financial stability, and strategic realignments. If the US dollar loses its status, America’s ability to unilaterally finance its global military presence and its contributions to international institutions, such as the United Nations, may be significantly constrained.

    The End of the US-Led Global Police Force?

    The United States has positioned itself as the world’s police force, intervening in conflicts globally under the banner of security and democratic promotion. However, its military dominance is underpinned by its economic power—driven in part by the dollar’s reserve status. If countries begin trading in other currencies, the US government may face severe budgetary restrictions that could curtail its extensive global military operations.

    Research by Posen (2014) in International Security argues that America’s global military reach is a direct function of its financial dominance. Without the ability to print and circulate the world’s primary currency, it may struggle to finance overseas interventions, reducing its ability to influence global security structures. Moreover, China’s growing military presence, combined with Russia’s assertiveness, signals a shift towards a multipolar world where no single nation can act as the ultimate enforcer of international norms.

    The Rise of Sovereignty and Fair Redistribution of Global Wealth

    Recent trends indicate that nations across the world are increasingly resisting external control and influence from global financial institutions, multinational corporations, and dominant superpowers. Countries such as India, Turkey, and Russia are asserting economic sovereignty through policies that prioritize national interests over globalist structures.

    Scholars such as Stiglitz (2017) in Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited have argued that economic globalization, while promoting development, has also entrenched inequities that favor wealthy nations and multinational corporations based in the US and Europe. As more nations implement policies that safeguard local economies, redistribute wealth more equitably, and promote self-sufficiency, the notion of economic superpowers controlling global wealth may become obsolete.

    This fairer distribution of wealth, however, poses a challenge to global institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which rely on economic dependencies to maintain control over developing economies. The transition towards a multipolar world order where no single entity dominates economic policies will likely redefine international alliances and create a new balance of power.

    The Emerging AI Threat: An Unpredictable Global Disruptor

    While economic and geopolitical shifts are reshaping international dynamics, perhaps the most unpredictable factor in the new world order is artificial intelligence. Unlike traditional military and economic power, AI is not bound by geography, national identity, or even political ideology. AI-driven cyber warfare, autonomous weapons, and machine-learning algorithms capable of independent decision-making introduce a new form of existential risk for states and their security.

    Recent research by Bostrom (2014) in Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies warns that AI, if left unchecked, could surpass human control mechanisms and operate in ways that undermine national security. In particular, autonomous AI systems with the capability to conduct cyber attacks, disrupt financial markets, and manipulate information on a global scale could render traditional forms of national defense obsolete.

    Furthermore, the decentralization of AI development means that non-state actors—including rogue hackers, corporations, and terrorist organizations—can harness its capabilities without state oversight. Unlike nuclear weapons, which require massive state investment, AI-driven warfare can be launched from small groups with access to computing resources. AI’s ability to self-enhance and evolve beyond human-imposed restrictions could create an era of unpredictable conflicts where no nation is immune from its reach.

    What Will the New World Order Look Like?

    The convergence of these factors—the decline of the dollar, the end of unilateral military dominance, economic decentralization, and the rise of AI—points to a future that will be markedly different from the one we know today. Here are some potential outcomes:

    1. A Multipolar World: The US, China, Russia, the EU, and regional blocs such as BRICS and the African Union will have competing spheres of influence, leading to a more balanced but fragmented global order.
    2.  Technological Warfare: AI and cyber capabilities will replace conventional military power as the primary means of geopolitical conflict, making traditional superpower rivalries less relevant.
    3. Localized Economic Systems: Countries will prioritize self-sufficiency, trade within regional blocs, and the use of alternative currencies to reduce dependency on traditional global financial institutions.
    4. Decentralized Governance: International bodies such as the UN, IMF, and World Bank may face declining influence as countries opt for bilateral and regional agreements that offer them greater sovereignty.
    5. Survival of the Smartest: Nations that invest in AI governance, cybersecurity, and autonomous defense systems will have the upper hand in global politics, irrespective of traditional military or economic power.

    In conclusion, the world is at the cusp of a major transition, where traditional power structures are being challenged by economic realignments, technological advancements, and a push for sovereignty. The decline of the dollar, the resistance against economic imperialism, and the unprecedented power of AI are redefining what it means to be a global superpower. Nations that fail to adapt to these changes may find themselves obsolete in the emerging world order. The coming decades will not only test the resilience of traditional powers but will also usher in a new era of decentralized and unpredictable global dynamics.

    References

    i. Bostrom, N. (2014). Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford University Press.
    ii. Eichengreen, B. (2011). “Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System.” Journal of Economic Perspectives.
    iii. Posen, B. (2014). “Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy.” International Security.
    iv. Stiglitz, J. (2017). Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump. W.W. Norton & Company.
  • Wafula Chebukati’s Death Reopens Old Wounds and Sparks Mixed Tributes

    Wafula Chebukati’s Death Reopens Old Wounds and Sparks Mixed Tributes

    The death of Wafula Chebukati, former Chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), on Thursday, February 20, 2025, has elicited a flood of reactions across Kenya, from glowing tributes to scathing critiques.

    Confirmed by his family, Chebukati passed away at a Nairobi hospital after a prolonged battle with illness, leaving behind a legacy as polarizing as the elections he oversaw.

    While President William Ruto hailed him as a “principled and diligent leader who served the nation with integrity,” others, including former MP and lawyer Gitobu Imanyara, painted a starkly different picture—one of a man haunted by the controversies of his tenure, dying “a sick and lonely man” unable to escape the shadow of his decisions.

    A Nation Mourns—or Reflects?

    Chebukati’s death at age 63 has reignited debates about his role in Kenya’s electoral history, particularly his controversial declaration of William Ruto as president-elect in August 2022.

    President Ruto, in a heartfelt condolence message shared on social media on Friday morning, described Chebukati as a patriot whose steadfastness preserved Kenya’s democracy.

    “His death is a great loss to our country,” Ruto wrote, recalling how Chebukati resisted “blackmail and bribery” during the 2022 polls—a stance that earned him the Elder of the Order of the Golden Heart (EGH) award later that year.

    Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen echoed this sentiment, calling Chebukati “a true patriot and a man of immense integrity” who “made history by steering the nation across two General Elections.”

    Yet, not all voices sang his praises. Gitobu Imanyara, a seasoned lawyer and former parliamentarian, offered a blistering assessment that cut through the eulogies like a knife.

    ’Never found peace’

    In a statement posted on X on February 21, Imanyara claimed Chebukati “never found peace” after declaring Ruto president “despite four of his fellow commissioners (the majority) publicly disagreeing with him.”

    He accused Chebukati of bowing to pressure from faith-based organizations, particularly Christian churches, and Western diplomatic missions, rather than upholding the constitutional fidelity demanded of his office. “Our democratic experiment with free and fair elections suffered a mortal hit,” Imanyara wrote, suggesting Chebukati’s legacy offers a “painful lesson” for public servants. He concluded with a bittersweet wish: “May his soul finally find peace and rest from a cruelly unforgiving public.”

    A Tenure Defined by Turmoil

    Chebukati’s six-year stint as IEBC chairman, from January 2017 to January 2023, was anything but smooth. Appointed by then-President Uhuru Kenyatta to replace Ahmed Issack Hassan, he stepped into a role that placed him at the heart of Kenya’s fiercely contested political arena.

    His first major test came with the 2017 General Election, where he oversaw a presidential vote that was annulled by the Supreme Court—an unprecedented move in Africa.

    The court, led by Chief Justice David Maraga, cited “widespread irregularities” and ordered a rerun within 60 days. The decision thrust Chebukati into the global spotlight, but it also exposed cracks within the IEBC.

    The repeat election in October 2017 only deepened the chaos. Commissioner Roselyn Akombe resigned a week before the poll, fleeing to the United States and alleging political interference had crippled the commission’s ability to deliver a credible vote.

    Chebukati himself admitted doubts about the election’s integrity but pressed ahead, declaring Uhuru Kenyatta the winner after opposition leader Raila Odinga boycotted the process.

    Three more commissioners—Margaret Mwachanya, Connie Maina, and Paul Kurgat—quit in April 2018, accusing Chebukati of poor leadership and succumbing to external pressures. Critics argued his refusal to step down amid such turmoil reflected either stubbornness or complicity.

    The 2022 election proved even more divisive. On August 15, 2022, as vote tallying concluded at the Bomas of Kenya, four newly appointed commissioners—Juliana Cherera, Francis Wanderi, Irene Masit, and Justus Nyang’aya—staged a dramatic walkout, disowning the results over alleged “opaqueness” in the final verification phase. Undeterred, Chebukati, backed by commissioners Boya Molu and Abdi Guliye, declared Ruto the victor with 50.49% of the vote.

    The “Cherera Four” became a symbol of dissent, while Chebukati faced accusations of rigging and premature announcement. The Supreme Court later upheld Ruto’s win, dismissing opposition challenges, but the episode left Kenya bitterly split and Chebukati’s reputation in tatters among critics.

    Other voices 

    Beyond Ruto and Imanyara, other leaders weighed in with tributes that underscored Chebukati’s complex legacy.

    National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula lauded him as a “steadfast defender of the rule of law,” emphasizing his “remarkable courage” in navigating electoral storms.

    Former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who appointed Chebukati, acknowledged his resilience, saying, “He played a pivotal role in shaping our nation’s electoral landscape, often navigating intricate challenges.”

    CS Justin Muturi called his service “central to ensuring the democratic will of the people,” though he avoided delving into the controversies.

    Other Kenyans, however, were less restrained. On X, musician Octopizzo struck a balanced tone: “Despite facing criticism, he remained steadfast in his commitment to electoral reforms. His legacy will be remembered.”

    But others were unforgiving. @Soulmender37 posted, “Wafula Chebukati will be remembered as both a defender of democracy and a symbol of Kenya’s electoral failures… his tenure was marred by rigging claims, a nullified election in 2017, and a deeply divided IEBC.”

    Another user, @KenyansUnite, remarked, “He declared Ruto president and left the country to pick up the pieces. No tears here.”

    Some even linked his illness to his past. “The stress of those elections ate him up,” speculated @NairobiVoice, while @TruthSeekerKE wrote, “Karma doesn’t miss an address. Two botched elections, and now this.”

    Such sentiments, harsh as they may be, reflect the raw emotions Chebukati’s tenure still evokes.

    The Man Behind the Title

    Born in Bokoli village, Bungoma County, Chebukati was a lawyer with over 37 years of experience, holding a Bachelor of Laws from the University of Nairobi and an MBA from Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology.

    Before IEBC, he ran Cootow & Associates Advocates and even dabbled in politics, finishing second in the 2007 Saboti Constituency race on an ODM ticket. An avid golfer, he served as captain of Mombasa and Nyali Golf Clubs—a quieter side of a man thrust into a relentless public storm.

    Married to Mary Wanyonyi—now Chairperson of the Commission on Revenue Allocation—Chebukati leaves behind three children: Rachel, Jonathan, and Emmanuel. His family remained tight-lipped about his final days, confirming only that he succumbed to a long illness, reportedly brain cancer, after weeks in intensive care.

    A Legacy in Question

    Chebukati’s death closes a chapter, but the book on his legacy remains wide open.

    To his supporters, he was a bulwark against electoral sabotage, a man who stood firm when others wavered.

    To his detractors, he was a symbol of democratic erosion, a leader who prioritized outcomes over process.

    As Kenya mourns—or reckons—with his passing, the echoes of 2017 and 2022 linger, a reminder of how one decision can ripple through a nation’s history.

    For now, the tributes and critiques flow side by side, much like the divided commissions he once led.

    Whether Wafula Chebukati finds the peace in death that eluded him in life, as Imanyara hopes, only time—and perhaps a less “cruelly unforgiving public”—will tell.

  • Gen Z Push for More Customer-Centric Approach to Banking

    Gen Z Push for More Customer-Centric Approach to Banking

    By Nohaila Ibn ElFarouk

    Traditional banks are quickly being forced out of their comfort zone. This is not only because of advancements in technology and fierce competition from neobanks, but also because Gen Z has now come of age. Zoomers, as they are commonly referred to, were born between 1997 and 2012 and have brought a completely new set of expectations to the banking industry. Accustomed to instant, convenient services, their need for a more customer-centric approach to payments and finance continues to change the future of banking.

    As early as 2025, zoomers will represent 27% of the global workforce, while Nigeria alone is home to 44 million members of Gen Z, quickly becoming a force that cannot be ignored.

    Financially, they are the most optimistic generation on record, with a global study showing that 71% believe they will one day be financially stable, while 41% “see their financial provider as a partner in helping them reach their financial goals”.

    Within Africa, they are leading the mobile money revolution even more than their millennial predecessors, with zoomers using mobile payment platforms 80% more often than older generations. They are interested in more sophisticated financial tools earlier on than older cohorts, with 40% of African Gen Z reporting using investment platforms like Chaka and Cowrywise. As they grow older and increase wealth, zoomers will become a major force in the continent’s finances, while maintaining their ingrained interest for digital, customer-centric solutions for moving money.

    With the proliferation of tech-driven trends in the banking market, as well as increased consumer expectations, banks find themselves needing to up their game by offering more than only financial services. Instead, their services must now include integrated platforms – or better yet, an integrated ecosystem that includes not only mobile or wallet applications, but also integrates lifestyle capabilities that are more in line with the customer lifecycle. Gen Z are digital natives and expect apps to offer a seamless experience more akin to the digital service they are familiar with, rather than the somewhat arcane workings of a conventional bank.

    For example, unlike regular banking apps that only offer basic services such as account management and long-term savings solutions, technology advancements have ensured that features such as saving pots and budgeting tools can now be integrated. Better still, e-commerce as well as third-party integrations that enable direct-to-brand shopping experiences and access to products such as insurance are essential, as they add more value to customer experiences.

    A leading example in Africa is Mauritius Commercial Bank’s (MCB) Juice platform, recently enhanced with the launch of Juice Tap. Leveraging NFC technology, Juice Tap enables seamless contactless payments while allowing customers to pool their MCB accounts in one place, with integration options for external bank accounts. It also provides streamlined bill management and a secure digital wallet, catering to the demand for comprehensive and convenient banking solutions.

    And it’s not just zoomers who see the appeal in this. Users of all ages adjust rapidly to the convenience of such integrated experiences and sometimes migrate to a new platform that offers increased ease and accessibility.

    To thrive in this new era, banks must rethink their operational models and technology strategies. The shift goes beyond digitizing existing services; it requires reimagining how financial services are delivered altogether. One transformative approach is composable banking—a modular framework that allows banks to build flexible, customer-centric solutions at scale.

    Composable banking enables financial institutions to move away from siloed, rigid systems and toward unified, adaptable architectures. This approach empowers banks to innovate faster, integrate cutting-edge technologies, and create tailored customer experiences. For Gen Z, this means access to intuitive, real-time services that fit seamlessly into their digital ecosystems. For banks, it’s a chance to reduce costs, increase agility, and future-proof their operations in an increasingly competitive market.

    Banks can achieve significant transformation through unified banking platforms. These platforms enable composability, making it easier to integrate third-party solutions and bring new services to market quickly. With faster time-to-market and reduced complexity, banks can stay agile and address the needs of digitally native customers. Unified platforms also support personalized customer journeys, ensuring banks remain relevant to younger generations demanding tailored experiences.

    Banks that embrace composable banking are positioning themselves to not only capture the loyalty of younger consumers but also redefine their role in a highly competitive market. The future of banking is not just about adapting to today’s expectations but anticipating tomorrow’s.

    Nohaila Ibn ElFarouk is a Business Development Manager at Backbase, a Dutch banking software financial technology company and a global leader in engagement banking.

  • ANALYSIS: Two Likely Scenarios That Will Play Out For Raila On AUC Election Day

    ANALYSIS: Two Likely Scenarios That Will Play Out For Raila On AUC Election Day

    By Kipkalya Kones

    One of two things will happen;

    1. Raila Odinga will win the AUC Chairman’s race…

    This will be a just and fair reward for a man who has committed his whole adult life to the service of the people. In a way, for many of his supporters, it will also wipe out the bitter memories of stolen elections and the humiliation that has always come with it. Celebrations will break out. And since it’s a four-year term, renewable once, Raila will then be in Addis until at least 2029, or at most 2033, covering two Kenyan electoral cycles.

    This eventuality means that it will be the last time to see Raila in local politics, though nothing stops us asking him to then run for President in 2037. Amolo is still vere vere young! As AUC Chair, Raila will transition to continental statesman, and those noises you have been hearing in ODM will turn into action, as both his political orphans, his proteges as well as the Transaction Industrial Complex in the party, physically begin to outdo each other. The sharks, the hyenas and the lambs will all converge under the umbrella of EAT OR BE EATEN!

    2. Raila loses the election and returns home…

    First, this would mean that one or two blocs, especially SADC and ECOWAS, betrayed Raila after making endorsements. Further complications may arise from Kagame’s tiff with both Tshisekedi of DRC and the widely respected SADC kingpin, Cyril Ramaphosa. When Amina Mohamed lost this contest in 2017, intra-bloc disunity in the EAC played a major role. Some EAC states failed to vote for her. You can therefore imagine the possibility of inter-bloc dynamics currently prevailing.

    The opponent from Djibouti was widely expected to step down before this contest. At some point, there were leaks of a presser just about to take place. That Yousouf didn’t step down and has opted to go to the wire is an uncomfortable prospect for Raila supporters, long traumatised by victories that have seemed guaranteed only to collapse at the last minute. Raila’s endorsements had gone past the half mark, so it is inconceivable that Yousouf would stay on, unless he also sees a clear path to victory. Not to mention that in 2017, the Kenyan government had even set up a hotel for celebrations when Amina inexplicably lost.

    In terms of local political dynamics, if Raila loses, the prevailing feeling will be that he was led to slaughter by a cunning Kenyan government, led by Ruto. First, ODM members will immediately declare Raila the Sixth for 2027! I mean, if he was good enough to run the continent past 2027, he can surely run Kenya too, two elections ahead! The broad-based arrangement will immediately collapse, and those so-called ODM experts in government will suddenly discover that they are only valuable to their master as long as Baba is happy. This scenario also portends the possibility of Raila and Gachagua forces finding very rare common ground, and if the Gen Z erupt at some point, this powder keg will explode like an IED in Afghanistan.

    Truth be told, many of those who wish Baba well actually prefer this second scenario. Politics in the times of mass despondency needs Raila active and angry on the local scene. Ruto’s regime hates this possibility, so let’s assume they have done enough to have Raila win on Saturday.

    The Writers is a political commentator on X (CollinceBey)

  • PAULINE NJOROGE: With USAID Fund Freeze, America Must Forget About Its Decades-Long Global Influence

    PAULINE NJOROGE: With USAID Fund Freeze, America Must Forget About Its Decades-Long Global Influence

    President Donald Trump’s decision to shut down the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will have a similar if not greater damaging impact on the US as the countries that have benefited from the generosity and solidarity of the American people since 1961 when President J.F Kennedy established the USAID.

    You see, USAID has not only been a mechanism for the US to support development and humanitarian causes in developing countries around the world, but as America’s most powerful soft power tool, it has also been at the forefront of promoting America’s global dominance in the last 63 years.

    USAID has helped advance America’s security and commercial interests with greater success than similar agencies have done for their countries, in ways that Trump or his MAGA base cannot grasp.

    In 2017, USAID reported that America has benefitted from the aid it extends to countries in significant ways. The agency described how US taxpayer dollars spent through foreign aid had contributed to America’s economic success at home and abroad.

    A worker removes the signage outside of the USAID headquarters in Washington, DC, on Friday. Photo: CNN

    As aid dollars developed the the people and economies of these countries, they had in turn become critical export markets for American goods, and sources of raw materials for key American value chains such as aviation and telecommunications.

    The agency thus concluded that without these countries, America’s economy would have at some point slid into recession.

    Trump may erroneously think that shutting down USAID will save America the $64B that the agency gave out in 2023, but unknown to him, he is partly putting America’s export market that accounts for 27% of America’s GDP and responsible for creation of more than 11 million jobs at risk.

    Power abhors a vacuum. Countries that have been relying on USAID’s financial support will survive, by either finding resources locally to plug the funding deficit or by turning to old and new allies like France, Germany, Japan and the U.K.

    But as they do this, America must forget her influence as it has been for the last six (6) decades that USAID has been the star of global humanitarianism.

    And it does not help matters that on top of pulling America from global humanitarianism, he is actively undermining other foreign policy pillars such as trade through imposition of unnecessary trade tariffs on important trade partners like China, Japan, Canada and Mexico.

    The writer is a Kenyan political strategist and a communications specialist.

  • ANALYSIS: Inside President Ruto’s North Eastern Strategy for the 2027 Election

    ANALYSIS: Inside President Ruto’s North Eastern Strategy for the 2027 Election

    President William Ruto’s recent decision to scrap the 60-year-old vetting requirement for residents of North Eastern Kenya marks a significant political and social shift, with far-reaching implications for the country’s political landscape and the 2027 General Election.

    This move, coupled with the recent High Court ruling invalidating the 2019 census results for Wajir, Mandera, and Garissa counties, underscores Ruto’s strategic focus on the region as a potential game-changer in his re-election bid.

    By addressing long-standing grievances and positioning himself as a champion of inclusivity, Ruto is seeking to consolidate support in a region that has historically been marginalized but holds significant electoral potential.

    Historical Marginalization and Political Significance

    North Eastern Kenya, comprising counties like Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, and Isiolo, has historically been marginalized in terms of political representation, resource allocation, and development.

    The region’s residents have long decried the vetting process, which required them to undergo rigorous screening before obtaining national ID cards and passports.

    This process was seen as discriminatory and a tool of systemic exclusion, limiting their ability to participate fully in national affairs, including voter registration and political representation.

    The recent High Court ruling, which invalidated the 2019 census results for three North Eastern counties, further highlighted the region’s grievances.

    The petitioners argued that the census figures were deliberately suppressed, undermining their social, economic, and political standing.

    With the court’s decision, the door has been opened for a more accurate representation of the region’s population, which could translate into increased political influence and resource allocation.

    President William Ruto signing the Presidential Proclamation on Registration and Issuance of IDs to Border Counties at Orahey Grounds in Wajir Town on February 5, 2025. PHOTO/@WilliamsRuto/

    Ruto’s Strategic Move

    President Ruto’s decision to scrap the vetting requirement is a calculated political maneuver aimed at addressing these historical injustices and winning the hearts of North Eastern voters.

    By framing this move as a step toward inclusivity and unity, Ruto is positioning himself as a leader who listens to and acts on the concerns of marginalized communities.

    This is particularly significant given the region’s past voting patterns, which have largely favored Raila Odinga and, to a lesser extent, Uhuru Kenyatta in 2017.

    Ruto’s allies, including lawyer Ahmednasir Abdullahi and UDM-affiliated leaders, have been quick to capitalize on this development, projecting that the region could register up to 3.5 million new voters by 2027.

    This would represent a 337.5% increase from the current 882,677 registered voters in the region. Such a surge in voter registration could significantly alter the electoral calculus, especially if Ruto succeeds in consolidating support in North Eastern Kenya.

    Compensating for Mt Kenya’s Waning Support

    Ruto’s focus on North Eastern Kenya must also be understood in the context of his strained relationship with the Mt Kenya region, which was instrumental in his 2022 victory. Of the 7.1 million votes he garnered in the last election, 3.5 million came from Mt Kenya.

    However, his fallout with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and growing discontent in the region have jeopardized his support base there.

    By targeting North Eastern Kenya, Ruto is effectively adopting a “hunter-gatherer” strategy, as described by governance expert Prof. Peter Kagwanja, to compensate for potential losses in Mt Kenya.

    The region’s high fertility rate and low voter registration levels present a unique opportunity for Ruto to tap into a largely untapped voter pool.

    Dennis Itumbi, a key figure in Ruto’s administration, has already highlighted the demographic potential of the region, noting that Mandera’s population of 983,000 surpasses that of Nyeri (844,000) and Kirinyaga (658,000). With less than 40% of eligible voters registered in Mandera compared to over 90% in Nyeri, the headroom for new voter registration is substantial.

    Political and Security Implications

    While Ruto’s move has been celebrated by many in North Eastern Kenya, it has also raised concerns among political and security analysts. Critics argue that the decision could have far-reaching social, political, and security implications.

    Security experts are warning that scrapping the vetting process could allow non-Kenyans from neighboring countries like Somalia, Ethiopia, and Tanzania to obtain Kenyan identification documents, potentially leading to security risks and resource strain.

    Moreover, the move has fueled conspiracy theories, with some accusing Ruto of inflating the region’s population to gain political advantage.

    Embakasi North MP James Gakuya who’s affiliated with impeached former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has dismissed Ruto’s strategy as a political gimmick, asserting that no amount of voter registration in North Eastern Kenya will save him from defeat in 2027.

    Similarly, Prof. Kagwanja has cautioned that the move could exacerbate ethnic nationalism and destabilize the country.

    Conclusion

    President Ruto’s focus on North Eastern Kenya for the 2027 election is a multifaceted strategy driven by the need to compensate for potential losses in his traditional strongholds, to claim the mantle of inclusivity and development, and to leverage legal and demographic changes for political advantage.

    However, this approach is not without its challenges, including accusations of vote manipulation and concerns over national security, reflecting the complex interplay of politics, identity, and governance in Kenya’s electoral landscape.

  • Ruto’s Political Dilemma: Why He Is Scared of Firing Muturi

    Ruto’s Political Dilemma: Why He Is Scared of Firing Muturi

    President William Ruto finds himself at a political crossroads with Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi, whose criticisms of the administration’s handling of abductions and extrajudicial killings have placed Ruto in a precarious position.

    The situation is not just about managing dissent within his government but also about maintaining political support in the volatile Mt Kenya region, where Muturi hails from.

    The Core of the Dilemma

    Muturi’s outspoken critique against the government, particularly on the sensitive issue of abductions, has made him a divisive figure within the Kenya Kwanza administration. His personal stake in the matter, following the abduction of his son by suspected state agents, lends credibility to his criticisms, resonating with the public and potentially eroding trust in Ruto’s leadership. This situation is complicated by the fact that Muturi’s actions mirror the political tactics Ruto himself used against former President Uhuru Kenyatta, highlighting a potential hypocrisy if Muturi were to be fired.

    Implications of Action or Inaction

    Firing Muturi: This could alienate Ruto from Mt Kenya East, a region already showing signs of political restlessness following the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. Muturi could become a martyr-like figure, rallying opposition and potentially joining forces with anti-Kenya Kwanza factions, thereby intensifying political opposition.

    Retaining Muturi: Keeping him in the Cabinet might expose internal divisions within the administration, signaling weakness or lack of control. However, it keeps potential adversaries closer, where they can be monitored and possibly managed, as suggested by political analyst Prof. David Monda. This strategy, however, risks further emboldening Muturi, who might escalate his criticisms unless checked.

    Muturi’s Strategic Positioning

    Muturi appears acutely aware of his leverage, as evidenced by his absence from key Cabinet meetings, possibly as a tactic to force a decision from Ruto. His recent public demands for an inquiry into abductions and his framing of these actions as a national crisis amplify his position, making his dismissal not just a personnel decision but a political statement.

    Public and Political Sentiment

    The public, especially in areas affected by these abductions, might view Muturi as a voice of reason within a government perceived to be out of touch or worse, complicit in these human rights violations. Politicians like Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua and Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru suggest that Muturi’s stance aligns with public sentiment, particularly in Mt Kenya, where support for Ruto could waver further if Muturi is seen as unfairly targeted.

    The Cost of Firing Muturi

    The biggest risk of firing Muturi is that it could turn him into a political martyr, fueling the growing discontent in the Mt Kenya region. Already, Ruto faces hostility in Mt Kenya West following the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. Firing Muturi, who hails from Mt Kenya East, could alienate another key faction of the region, undermining Ruto’s efforts to maintain political dominance.

    According to news reports citing a State House insider, the government is reluctant to sack Muturi immediately, fearing that doing so would position him as a hero standing up against government excesses. Muturi’s criticism of abductions resonates with many Kenyans, particularly those who have lost loved ones. The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) has recorded 89 cases of enforced disappearances since June 2024, with 29 people still missing.

    Firing Muturi under these circumstances could backfire, amplifying opposition voices and reinforcing the narrative that Ruto’s government is intolerant of dissent.

    A Playbook Ruto Knows Well

    Critics argue that Muturi is following the same political strategy that Ruto himself used against former President Uhuru Kenyatta. When Ruto was Deputy President, he frequently criticized Kenyatta’s administration, particularly on economic mismanagement and extrajudicial killings. However, despite the tensions, Kenyatta did not fire Ruto, fearing it would make him a political martyr.

    Now, Ruto finds himself in Kenyatta’s shoes, facing a rebellious insider who is using government failings as political ammunition. Muturi’s open defiance, including his absence from the first Cabinet meeting of 2025, suggests he is daring the President to fire him—perhaps as a calculated move to position himself for future political relevance.

    Keeping Enemies Close?

    Political analysts, including US-based Professor David Monda, argue that Ruto is caught between a rock and a hard place. Firing Muturi could embolden the growing anti-Kenya Kwanza coalition led by Gachagua, while retaining him allows Muturi to continue undermining the administration from within. Ruto’s strategy of keeping his enemies close may be a temporary fix, but it is unlikely to resolve the underlying tensions.

    Way Forward

    Ruto’s options are limited. Retaining Muturi risks further erosion of public trust and internal cohesion, while firing him could ignite political unrest in Mt Kenya and beyond. Some observers suggest that Ruto may eventually be forced to act if Muturi’s attacks escalate. However, any move against Muturi must be carefully calibrated to avoid alienating key constituencies.

    The situation in Mt Kenya remains volatile, and Ruto has already deployed Interior CS Prof. Kithure Kindiki to calm tensions in the region. If the administration regains political ground, Ruto may feel confident enough to dismiss Muturi and replace him with a more loyal figure, such as Kiraitu Murungi.

    However, if the hostility persists, firing Muturi could further inflame Mt Kenya East, potentially creating another political headache for Ruto.

    In the meantime, Ruto’s administration faces mounting pressure to address the abductions and extrajudicial killings that have fueled Muturi’s defiance. Ignoring these issues will only deepen the crisis and provide more fodder for Ruto’s critics. As Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi aptly put it, Muturi is not against the government but against the bad actions of individuals within it. Addressing these concerns head-on may be the only way for Ruto to navigate this political minefield.

    Ruto’s handling of the Muturi dilemma will be a defining moment for his presidency. Firing Muturi risks alienating Mt Kenya East and giving his critics more ammunition. Keeping him in government exposes internal divisions and weakens the credibility of his administration.

    Ultimately, Ruto’s decision will depend on whether he can contain the growing discontent in Mt Kenya. If he manages to stabilize the region politically, Muturi’s exit may become inevitable. But for now, the President remains stuck between a rock and a hard place, trying to balance political survival with governance credibility.

  • How Kalonzo Is Ruining His Chances Of Becoming President

    How Kalonzo Is Ruining His Chances Of Becoming President

    Kalonzo Musyoka’s public relations machinery works overtime, ensuring no party purge, weekend prayer meeting or proclamation goes unnoticed by the media and ultimately the public. The former vice-president has positioned himself as a perpetual critic of President William Ruto’s administration, regularly cataloguing its shortcomings – from human rights concerns to economic struggles, delivering regular sermons on abductions of government critics, the high cost of living, and youth unemployment.

    But as Kalonzo strives to project to Kenyans that he has presidential gravitas, there’s a troubling contradiction. While he’s surrounded by some respectable figures – earnest politicians waiting out their season in the wilderness – his inner circle raises serious questions about his judgment and intentions. His closest associates include individuals whose presence would make any serious presidential aspirant recoil.

    Most disturbing is Kalonzo’s apparent comfort with keeping company that should set off alarm bells. Among his associates is a former governor battling corruption charges in court over questionable deals made during his tenure. He has also extended olive branches to a disgraced politician whose impeachment and removal from office is still fresh in public memory. Photographs of Kalonzo with some of these disreputable characters regularly adorn the pages of daily newspapers.

    Kalonzo’s actions suggest that he values political expediency over principle. Some of these men that he’s courting represent voting blocs that he probably sees as crucial for him if he chooses to run for President in 2027. But this is tainting his presidential ambitions. A leader’s character is often reflected in the company they keep, and these associations paint a disturbing picture of someone willing to compromise ethical standards for political advantage. It seems Kalonzo has chosen convenience over conscience, raising serious questions about how he would govern if he were elected.

    While Kalonzo’s credentials as a former vice-president and foreign minister are noteworthy, these alone cannot justify his bid for the highest office in the land. Kenya needs more than a seasoned politician – it needs a leader with a clear vision and concrete plans for national progress. But, so far, Kalonzo’s unofficial campaign for President seems built primarily on critiquing the current administration, a role better suited to civil society activists and Gen Z than presidential hopefuls.

    If Kalonzo truly aspires to lead Kenya, he must demonstrate more than his ability to identify problems. He needs to articulate a detailed programme for national development, one that offers practical solutions to the very issues he so readily cites. Equally important, he must show better judgment in choosing his political associations. The company he keeps speaks volumes about the kind of presidency he would run.

    Until he can align his actions with the higher standards of integrity, wisdom and solutions, his presidential aspirations will remain just a mirage.

  • What Trump Second Term Presidency Mean For Kenya And Africa

    What Trump Second Term Presidency Mean For Kenya And Africa

    The inauguration of Donald Trump on Monday, January 20, 2025, for his second presidential term, has sent ripples across global markets and policymaking circles. While Kenya or any African country was directly addressed in his inauguration speech, the potential implications of these moves are profound.

    – Executive Order on Aid:
    -Upon taking office for his second term, President Donald Trump issued an executive order pausing U.S. foreign development aid for 90 days to evaluate its alignment with his administration’s policies. This directive affects all departments and agencies responsible for such aid, although the exact scope and affected entities remain unclear.

    – Implications for Kenya:
    – This decision comes at a pivotal time for Kenya, which had recently secured several aid-dependent agreements with the previous U.S. administration under President Joe Biden. During a state visit in May 2024, Kenyan President William Ruto and Biden signed deals focusing on:
    – Climate and Clean Energy: The U.S.-Kenya Climate and Clean Energy Industrial Partnership aimed at promoting clean energy manufacturing, backed by a $60 million grant from the Millennium Challenge Corporation for climate-friendly public transportation in Kenya.

    Kenya and the US struck a deal and launched a pact known as US-Kenya Climate and Clean Energy Industrial Partnership, targeted at lobbying and engaging international financial institutions and multilateral trust funds to identify mechanisms for mobilising investment for clean energy manufacturing and services.

    As part of the climate deal between Dr Ruto and Mr Biden, it was agreed that a $60 million (Sh7,764,025,078.66) grant from the Millennium Challenge Corporation– is a bilateral United States foreign aid agency established by the US Congress in 2004—would fund a four-year programme focusing on transportation needs of underserved groups in Kenya, safer options for women and pedestrians, and climate-friendly public transportation.

    – Security: Kenya was designated a Major non-NATO Ally (MNNA), the first in sub-Saharan Africa, enhancing defense trade and cooperation. This includes a $7 million initiative to modernize Kenya’s National Police Service and commitments to support anti-terrorism efforts in Somalia and peace in Sudan.

    MNNA status is a designation under American law that provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation.

    Currently, 19 countries are designated as MNNAs by the US including; Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Israel, Japan, Jordan, and Kenya. Others are Kuwait, Morocco, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Qatar, South Korea, Thailand, and Tunisia.
    – Education: Biden’s administration committed $3.3 million to fund scholarships for Kenyan students to study STEM in the U.S. and an additional $500,000 to foster academic collaborations between Kenyan and American universities.

    These developments now face uncertainty due to the aid freeze, potentially disrupting planned projects and partnerships in Kenya.

    – Broader Impact on Africa:
    – Trump’s regime may prove catastrophic for Africa, as experts predict cuts to U.S. aid, which currently amounts to about $8 billion annually, leaving millions—especially women and children—vulnerable to food insecurity, water scarcity, and the growing influence of authoritarian regimes, as well as Russia’s and China’s imperialist expansion.

    – Trade:
    – Trump’s policies will also have broader geopolitical implications. His administration’s “America First” approach emphasizes U.S. interests over international cooperation, which could lead to a reconfiguration of trade and diplomatic relationships. The spotlight is on whether the Trump administration will extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) beyond its 2025 deadline, as AGOA has been instrumental in fostering trade and economic development between Africa and the United States by providing African countries access to U.S. markets and allowing them to diversify their economies beyond raw materials.

    Africa, which has increasingly become a focus of Chinese, Russian, and European influence, may navigate a more complicated geopolitical landscape, particularly in trade agreements, development aid, and investment. Trump’s focus on domestic interests could also impact U.S. foreign aid to Africa, further complicating the economic development of many African nations that depend on these resources.

    The shifting sands of U.S. foreign policy under Trump’s leadership present an urgent challenge for African governments. For Kenya, the immediate concern is managing the economic fallout from potentially lower oil prices, but the broader challenge will be balancing energy policies and climate action in a rapidly changing global order. African countries must explore alternative economic models, emphasizing diversification away from fossil fuels and focusing on sustainability to prepare for the long-term effects of climate change and global energy market shifts.

    Authoritarians, such as Uganda’s Museveni and Rwanda’s Kagame, are likely to seek closer ties, while democracies like South Africa could face strained relations due to their opposition to Israeli war crimes. People facing atrocities in expanding conflicts in the Horn of Africa and elsewhere are unlikely to see much support from the U.S. over the next few years.

    – Health:
    – Trump’s presidency could also spell trouble for global health agencies.

    Trump has previously stated that he would cut funding to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations – agencies that collaborate with UNAIDS by leveraging support for the Global Fund.

    In his speech, the former president, who is making a return to the White House, said that WHO had failed in its basic duty and must be held accountable, holding that during the Covid-19 pandemic, the global agency promoted China’s disinformation about the virus, which led to the spread of the respiratory viral disease across the globe.

    Trump’s comments attracted a reaction from WHO chief Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who said it was “time for all of us to be united in our common struggle against a common threat.”

    WHO works worldwide to promote health, keep the world safe, and serve the vulnerable, by ensuring that a billion more people have universal health coverage, protecting a billion more people from health emergencies, and providing a further billion people with better health and well-being.

    Trump’s presidency is likely to have severe harm on reproductive health and women’s rights across Africa, putting millions of women and girls in danger. Compared with women in Europe, African women are more than 100 times more likely to die from abortion. Access to safe abortion is urgently needed to save their lives. Trump’s previous term emboldened regressive anti-women’s rights forces globally, weaponizing Christian right values against minorities. Trump’s Geneva Consensus Declaration, which denies an international right to abortion, now has 39 country signatories and spurs restrictive abortion laws.

    An estimated 4.2 million African women resort to unsafe abortions each year, and 30,000 die as a result, according to the World Health Organization. At least 10% of the global total of abortions occur in Africa, the continent accounts for almost half of the world’s deaths from abortions, with one in 12 women dying from the procedure. For every death, 20 to 30 women have permanent damage to their uterus, cervix, fallopian tubes, intestine, or bladder. The United Nations Fund for Population Activities says that about 530,000 women die in pregnancy or childbirth every year, nearly half of them, 247,000, in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Project 2025, a conservative blueprint, proposes re-imposing the global gag rule and limiting abortion access, which threatens African women’s health services that depend on U.S. funding. This may lead to increased injuries and deaths from unsafe abortions as resources for these services are cut. For advocates and feminists, Trump’s re-election makes their work harder, but they pledge to strategize, uphold hard-won rights, and stand in solidarity to combat harmful policies and protect women globally.

    – HIV/AIDS:
    – Programs like PEPFAR (the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) and other health initiatives, vital to Africa, may also face cuts. There are 25.6 million people living with HIV in the African region. In 2022, about 380,000 people died from AIDS-related illness. HIV infection is often diagnosed through rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), which detect the presence or absence of HIV antibodies. Without aid to vital programs, the number of deaths can be expected to rise.

    Thanks to the support of the United States’ Global Fund and PEPFAR, millions of Kenyans have been able to access HIV/AIDS services. These programs have been a game-changer in the fight against one of the three killer diseases across Kenya and largely Africa. Under the HIV program, the donor supplies commodities, including testing kits and Antiretroviral (ARV) treatment. Through this support, at least 1.3 million people living with HIV in Kenya have been put on ARVs, according to data from the National Syndemic Disease Control Council (NSDCC).

    With Trump’s return to the presidency, there are genuine concerns about a highly unpredictable funding environment.

    “Trump’s presidency will impact not just PEPFAR, but also UNAIDS, the UN agency for HIV/AIDS, and the Global Fund to fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria. Trump’s ‘America First’ policy prioritizes domestic interests, which means funding for these global initiatives is likely to decline.” The Director of the National Empowerment Network of People Living with HIV/AIDS in Kenya (NEPHAK), Nelson Otwoma, said in an interview with local press.

    He adds, “Trump does not appear likely to sustain the funding levels for PEPFAR and the Global Fund at current levels. This will directly impact Kenya.”

    “His approach to funding, coupled with Kenya’s issues of corruption and procurement irregularities, puts us in a precarious position. Trump is a businessman who pays attention to such issues, and I do not believe Kenya is in his good books,” he continues.

    “When they say ‘America First’, ‘Make America Great Again’ – they also prioritize American pharmaceutical companies. This could mean higher costs for ARVs since Kenya imports most of its ARVs from India, but Trump’s policies might push for the use of American pharmaceuticals, which could be more expensive,” says the representative of people living with HIV/AIDS.

    The Global Fund is among the highest funders of Kenya’s health system. Kenya’s total commodity allocation for HIV services is Sh28.7 billion, of which Sh5.3 billion comes from the Global Fund and Sh3.3 billion from the Kenyan Government. Out of the Sh28.7 billion, the Global Fund allocates Sh4.6 billion for ARVs, while the Kenyan Government allocates Sh2.2 billion. However, there is a total shortage of Sh2.4 billion worth of ARVs.

    PEPFAR funding for HIV commodities has been dwindling over the years, from Sh17 billion, Sh11 billion, Sh9 billion, to the current Sh7.3 billion.

    – Climate:
    – Trump’s decision to retreat from the Paris Agreement signals a retreat from multilateral efforts to combat climate change. This move could be catastrophic for African countries, given that climate-related risks such as droughts, floods, and food insecurity are becoming more frequent and severe in the region. While Africa contributes little to global emissions, it remains one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change. A rollback in global climate commitments would hinder progress in addressing these issues, leaving African countries to bear the brunt of environmental degradation without the support needed from global powers to mitigate its effects.

    Trump’s climate policies also pose risks; Africa, disproportionately affected by climate crises, may suffer more if U.S. support wanes. Trump’s climate change denial is particularly worrying for Africa, which heavily relies on climate funds to tackle issues like water scarcity and food insecurity.

    – Energy:
    – Donald Trump’s pledge to unlock more of Kenya’s vast stores of energy will likely lower consumer price growth, according to Central Bank of Kenya Governor Kamau Thugge.

    Kenya will analyze the impact of Trump’s promise to “‘drill, baby, drill,’” Governor Thugge told reporters while commenting on the domestic price-growth outlook. “If it results in lower fuel prices, then it’s also possible that that will contribute to lower inflation in the U.S. and also lower global inflation. And that could actually be a positive for us.”

    The newly minted U.S. president signaled a push for domestic oil and gas production that may boost the nation’s output and ultimately lower prices. Brent crude slipped below $80 a barrel in London.

    While Kenya announced an oil discovery in 2012, progress toward commercial production has stagnated, and the nation imports all the 5.5 million cubic meters of petroleum products it consumes. Kenya’s inflation is susceptible to the vagaries of weather at home and volatility of commodity prices abroad. The rate of price growth has declined and last year touched a 14-year low of 2.7%. It could climb to about 3.3% by March, according to the central bank.

    Thugge said the monetary policy committee would gauge the effect of Trump’s new policies on inflation and in turn the Federal Reserve’s response.

    Despite the dangers posed to Africa by the return of the Trump regime, a transactional, investment-focused relationship with Africa, prioritizing trade, direct economic partnerships, and reduced reliance on aid would likely be beneficial in the long term, if Africa can manage to diminish its consistent spiral towards kleptocracy and authoritarian rule. This approach contrasts with Biden’s focus on mutual cooperation, potentially allowing African countries more autonomy in democratic reforms and fostering economic self-reliance.

  • From Public Relations to Public Agriculture: The Impact of Mutahi Kagwe’s Tell-Em PR on His Role as Agriculture CS

    From Public Relations to Public Agriculture: The Impact of Mutahi Kagwe’s Tell-Em PR on His Role as Agriculture CS

    In a significant cabinet reshuffle by President William Ruto in late 2024, Mutahi Kagwe transitioned from his high-profile role as Health Cabinet Secretary during the Uhuru Kenyatta era to head the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development. This move has brought renewed scrutiny on Kagwe, particularly regarding his longstanding association with Tell-Em Public Relations (PR), one of Kenya’s leading PR agencies he founded in 1999. Here, we delve into how this past might shape his current responsibilities.

    The Tell-Em PR Connection

    Mutahi Kagwe’s tenure at Tell-Em PR, where he served as chairman before his political appointments, has established him as a figure with deep roots in communication strategy and public perception management. According to Tell-Em’s profile, the agency has been pivotal in executing campaigns for major brands, including Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble, amassing numerous accolades for its work in media relations and overall PR campaigns.

    Kagwe’s personal wealth, much of which was accumulated through his business ventures including Tell-Em PR, was disclosed during his vetting for the Agriculture CS position, where he claimed a net worth of around Ksh842 million, attributing it to his “hard work” over four decades.

    PR Skills in Agriculture Policy

    Kagwe’s experience in PR could significantly enhance the ministry’s communication strategy. The agriculture sector in Kenya often struggles with disseminating information effectively to farmers, stakeholders, and the general public. His skills could lead to more impactful campaigns on policy changes, new agricultural technologies, or educational programs aimed at increasing productivity and sustainability.

    His handling of the COVID-19 crisis as Health CS, where he was both criticized and praised for his PR approach, suggests he might bring a similar strategy to agricultural challenges like drought, pestilence, or policy backlash. However, this also raises questions about whether policy might be shaped more by public perception than by technical agricultural needs.

    Tell-Em PR’s extensive network could be leveraged to foster partnerships between the government and private sector, potentially accelerating technology transfer, investment, and innovation in agriculture. However, this close relationship with private entities could also lead to perceptions of conflict of interest or favoritism.

    Potential Conflicts and Challenges

    Given Kagwe’s history with Tell-Em, there’s a potential for conflict of interest, especially if the ministry engages with companies that are or have been clients of the PR firm. His vetting for the Agriculture CS role highlighted his stance on GMOs and vaccines, suggesting a policy of caution which might reflect his PR background of managing public sentiment rather than purely scientific or agricultural considerations.

    One of the firm’s clients include Gates Foundation which has been in the forefront of pushing for the GMOs agenda and lately the controversial livestock vaccination that has attracted sharp criticism from Kenyans.

    Will Kagwe be able to balance between business (his client Bill Gates) and public policies, this here presents a conflict of interest for the CS.

    Tell-Em clients.

    Kagwe’s previous role left a mixed legacy, with some viewing his PR tactics during the health crisis as too aggressive or politically motivated. This perception could impact public trust in his new initiatives in agriculture, particularly if there’s a perceived continuation of those tactics.

    There’s a risk that policy might lean too much towards what can be sold to the public rather than what is fundamentally needed for agricultural advancement. The balance between effective policy-making and public relations will be critical.

    Mutahi Kagwe’s transition from a PR magnate to the head of Kenya’s agriculture sector poses significant challenges in ensuring that agricultural policy is not overshadowed by PR strategy. As he navigates this role, the public and stakeholders will watch closely to see if the “business is our image” ethos of Tell-Em PR translates into a transparent, effective, and unbiased approach to one of Kenya’s most vital sectors.

  • How Tax Evasion by Big Corporations Continues to Hurt the Weakened Kenyan Economy

    How Tax Evasion by Big Corporations Continues to Hurt the Weakened Kenyan Economy

    In Kenya, a nation grappling with economic challenges, tax evasion by large corporations has become a critical issue exacerbating the fiscal strain on the government. This practice not only deprives the state of much-needed revenue but also distorts competition, undermines investment in public services, and deepens economic disparities. A notable example is the case of Transsion Holdings, the parent company of popular smartphone brands like Tecno, Infinix, and Itel.

    The Kenyan economy, already under pressure from global economic downturns, local political instability, and high national debt, finds itself further weakened by the sophisticated tax evasion strategies employed by multinational corporations. According to recent investigations, Transsion Holdings is accused of evading taxes amounting to approximately Ksh. 400 billion (over USD 3 billion).

    This staggering figure comes from allegations of under-reporting profits, manipulating financials through transfer pricing, and possibly colluding with corrupt officials within the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA). The impact of such evasion is profound, considering that this lost revenue could have funded numerous public projects, from healthcare to infrastructure development.

    The mechanism of tax evasion often involves complex legal and financial maneuvers. For instance, multinational companies like Transsion might report losses in Kenya while declaring profits in jurisdictions with lower tax rates or tax havens. This practice, known as transfer pricing, allows profits to be shifted to countries where they are taxed less or not at all, significantly reducing the tax burden in Kenya.

    Furthermore, the use of cash payments to avoid leaving a paper trail and the alleged non-remittance of Pay As You Earn (PAYE) deductions are tactics that further illustrate the depth of the problem.

    The consequences of such tax evasion extend beyond immediate revenue loss. Firstly, it places an unfair burden on smaller businesses and individual taxpayers who cannot avail themselves of similar evasion tactics. This creates an uneven playing field, where local enterprises struggle to compete with multinationals who can lower their operational costs through tax avoidance. The result is often a stymied growth for local businesses, which are the backbone of the Kenyan economy.

    Moreover, the Kenyan government’s ability to fund public services is severely compromised. Education, health, and infrastructure, sectors critical for socio-economic development, suffer from underfunding due to the shortfall in tax collection. For instance, the government’s budget for these services could have been significantly bolstered by the Ksh. 400 billion allegedly evaded by Transsion alone. Instead, the government must either cut services, increase borrowing (further inflating public debt), or raise taxes on the populace, none of which are sustainable solutions.

    The narrative of tax evasion in Kenya isn’t limited to Transsion. Other big corporations have also been implicated in tax evasion scandals. For example, previous reports have highlighted how companies in the energy sector, particularly those dealing in petroleum, have engaged in practices like under-declaration of imports to evade customs duties.

    Similarly, the telecommunications industry has seen its share of scrutiny with allegations of profit shifting and tax avoidance through intricate corporate structures.

    The Kenya Revenue Authority has attempted to combat these issues through technological interventions like the implementation of the iTax system for better tax filing and compliance monitoring, alongside special investigations into high-profile cases.

    KRA had launched an online web-based reporting solution dubbed iWhistle, that provides a framework for KRA Staff and members of the public to report bribery, concealment, conflict of interest, evasion, tax fraud, abuse of office, diversion of goods, tax evasion, manufacturing of counterfeit goods and other tax related crimes, upon seeing, hearing or suspecting the aforesaid.

    However, the agility and resources of these corporations often outmatch the capabilities of the tax authority, which is sometimes plagued by corruption or lacks the sophisticated tools needed to catch up with global tax evasion strategies.

    From a broader perspective, tax evasion by big corporations also affects Kenya’s attractiveness as an investment destination. While the country aims to attract foreign direct investment to spur economic growth, the presence of widespread tax evasion can signal to potential investors about governance and legal risks, deterring investment or pushing companies towards similar unethical practices to remain competitive.

    To address this, there is a clear need for legislative reform, international cooperation, and enhanced enforcement mechanisms. Kenya could benefit from adopting global standards like the OECD’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project, which aims to curb tax avoidance strategies by multinationals.

    Additionally, fostering transparency, strengthening anti-corruption measures within KRA, and possibly leveraging whistleblower protection could enhance the government’s ability to tackle tax evasion.

    In conclusion, tax evasion by companies like Transsion not only starves the Kenyan economy of vital resources but also undermines the principle of fair taxation, which is crucial for equitable economic development. The ongoing challenge for Kenya is not just to catch up with these corporations in terms of tax enforcement but to create a system where evasion is less attractive and more risky, ensuring that the economic burden is shared more equitably across all sectors of society.

  • Kenya’s Race Against Time: Why Hosting CHAN 2024 Seems Out of Reach

    Kenya’s Race Against Time: Why Hosting CHAN 2024 Seems Out of Reach

    Kenya’s ambition to host the 2024 African Nations Championship (CHAN) alongside Uganda and Tanzania is teetering on the brink of failure due to severe delays in stadium preparations. Despite the initial jubilation when Kenya was awarded co-hosting rights, the reality of the country’s infrastructure readiness paints a grim picture.

    Unfinished Stadiums and Missed Deadlines

    With just over three weeks until the Confederation of African Football (CAF)’s deadline on December 31, 2024, Kenya’s primary venues, Nyayo Stadium and Moi International Sports Centre, Kasarani, are far from ready. Nyayo Stadium, although closer to completion, still requires significant work on lighting, grass, and painting. Kasarani Stadium, closed for renovations since December 2023, has not seen the expected progress, with key elements like the playing surface, dressing rooms, and media centers still under construction.

    Financial and Logistical Challenges

    The budget set for these renovations is approximately Sh3 billion, a substantial sum yet seemingly inadequate given the scope of work needed. The financial strain is exacerbated by the history of mismanagement and the unending renovations, turning these venues into what some critics describe as “cash cows” without substantial progress.

    Historical Precedents and Current Realities

    Kenya’s track record in hosting international football events is not encouraging. The country lost the rights to host the 1996 Africa Cup of Nations due to unpreparedness and was stripped of the 2018 CHAN hosting rights for similar reasons. This pattern appears to be repeating, with recent social media buzz suggesting that Rwanda might be stepping in, although official confirmations from CAF have denied such claims.

    Comparative Readiness of Co-Hosts

    In stark contrast, Uganda and Tanzania have stadiums that meet CAF standards, with both countries having successfully qualified for upcoming tournaments due to their infrastructural investments. This readiness disparity highlights Kenya’s lag in preparation, underscoring the challenges of hosting international sports events without adequate facilities.

    Government’s Last-Ditch Efforts

    Sports Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen, along with CAF representatives, have tried to assure the public of Kenya’s commitment to hosting CHAN. However, the practicality of completing such extensive work in such a short timeframe is questionable. Even with promises of expedited construction and oversight by a newly formed Local Organising Committee (LOC), the physical evidence suggests otherwise.

    Expert Opinions and Public Distrust

    Former Kenyan international Boniface Ambani has been vocal about the improbability of Kenya hosting CHAN, emphasizing that a proper playing surface alone requires at least six months to prepare. His skepticism is shared by many, fostering a public sentiment of distrust towards the government’s optimistic claims.

    The Bigger Picture

    While Kenya’s government focuses on salvaging the situation for CHAN, the broader implications for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) are dire. The ongoing issues could lead to a repeat scenario unless drastic, immediate action is taken. The lack of ready facilities has already impacted Harambee Stars, forcing them to play home matches abroad, which has affected their performance and morale.

    Kenya’s inability to host CHAN 2024 isn’t just about missing a deadline; it’s a reflection of deeper systemic issues in sports infrastructure management and planning. Without significant, immediate interventions, Kenya risks not only losing CHAN but also facing ongoing challenges in hosting any major international sporting events. The situation calls for transparency, accountability, and perhaps, a realistic reassessment of what Kenya can deliver in the near future.

  • Kenyans Frustrated With Their Government Celebrate Trump’s Win

    Kenyans Frustrated With Their Government Celebrate Trump’s Win

    Seven months after Kenya’s President William Ruto was hosted by President Joe Biden at the White House in a historic state visit, Donald Trump’s election victory sparked celebrations among opposition activists.

    Kenyans concerned over the perceived US backing of Ruto’s administration and some of its more unpopular economic policies are hoping for a reevaluation of US support under Trump.

    For a start, they’re calling for the removal of the Biden-appointed US ambassador to Kenya, former HP and eBay CEO Meg Whitman, who played a central role in the elevation of Kenya’s relationship with the US to non-NATO ally status in May. She has also led a push to attract investment by US tech firms to Kenya, East Africa’s largest economy.

    Calls for her removal were widely shared across social media, trending on platforms including X soon after it became apparent that Trump was headed for victory. Whitman — and by extension Washington’s — relationship with Ruto has long been seen as a problem in some quarters. Critics range from opposition activists in Kenya to officials in Washington.

    Ruto’s popularity took a hit in the months following the US state visit due to massive youth-led nationwide protests against proposed tax hikes and corruption as well as police abductions and killings of protesters. A survey published by research company InfoTrak in October said 73% of Kenyans thought the country “was headed in the wrong direction,” with corruption and police abductions among Kenyans’ top concerns.

    Ruto congratulated Trump on Thursday for his win, writing that he looked forward to “deepening our collaboration under your leadership as we work together to address global challenges”.

    Whitman faced a backlash last Thursday after the US failed to appear among signatories of a joint statement by Western envoys condemning a reported increase in abductions and enforced disappearances in the country, having previously signed similar statements alongside European counterparts. Police in the country have denied involvement in abductions.

    “If President Donald Trump’s return to the White House brings an end to Meg Whitman’s ambassadorial tenure in Nairobi, then we as Kenyans have something to celebrate,” veteran lawyer and human rights activist Gitobu Imanyara wrote on X, referencing the abductions.

    As Kamala Harris perhaps realized a little too late, in 2024 the Joe Biden hug can be damaging for political ambition. The optics of Ruto’s association with Biden — capped by the first state visit by an African leader in 15 years and Whitman’s perceived closeness to the Kenyan president — has helped fuel disaffection against the government.

    Critics of Washington’s approach see the US as an enabler of harmful government decisions in Kenya.

    However, Caroline Wandiri, an international relations professor at the Nairobi-based Kenyatta University, told me Whitman’s future would ultimately not be determined by Kenyans’ complaints, but by whether she was aligned with Trump’s vision for the US and its interests around the world. Even though Whitman was appointed by a Democratic president, she has previously run as a Republican for the governorship of California.

    Kenya has increasingly been seen as a key geopolitical partner for the US on the continent amid waning US influence in West Africa, along with increasing Russian and Chinese presence.

    “If he feels that she (Whitman) or any other person is not representing the United States’ interests very well, or if he’d want someone to confide with or get along with easily, there’s no reason not to make a change,” Wandiri said. “That would not be strange.”