Kenya Insights

Category: Opinion

  • MUNDIA KAMAU: William Ruto Is Not The Only Unpopular President That Kenya Has Had

    MUNDIA KAMAU: William Ruto Is Not The Only Unpopular President That Kenya Has Had

    Kenya’s first President, Jomo Kenyatta, was also not particularly popular.

    When Jomo Kenyatta passed away on August 22, 1978, there were people who rejoiced in silence.

    A small clique of wealthy and powerful individuals in President Jomo Kenyatta’s inner circle were calling the shots during the final years of his presidency, and they were not making beneficial decisions.

    Similarly, when the presidency of Kenya’s second President, Daniel T. arap Moi, came to an end on December 30, 2002, after 24 years, many Kenyans rejoiced.

    Kenyans who remember the transition from Daniel T. arap Moi to Kenya’s third President, Mwai Kibaki, will recall how the words of a Kiswahili gospel song were altered from “Yote yawezekana kwa imani” (All is possible with faith) to “Yote yawezekana bila Moi” (All is possible without Moi).

    I’m also not convinced about the popularity of Kenya’s third President, Mwai Kibaki.

    Many Kenyans regard Mwai Kibaki as Kenya’s best president so far, though it was under his leadership that Kenya almost descended into civil war after the bitterly disputed Kenyan elections of December 27, 2007.

    Two years earlier, on November 21, 2005, Mwai Kibaki lost a referendum on a new Kenyan constitution, raising questions about how unifying and popular a figure he truly was.

    Consider Ronald Reagan, who served as President of the USA from 1981 to 1989.

    Reagan won two consecutive US presidential elections by landslides, in 1980 and 1984. Reagan’s 1984 landslide was particularly spectacular—he won 49 out of 50 US states.

    His rival, Walter Mondale, won only one state (his home state of Minnesota), and even there by a narrow margin.

    If Mwai Kibaki was as popular as many Kenyans assert, he would have won the 2002 and 2007 Kenyan presidential elections with massive landslides similar to Reagan’s 1984 victory, and he would have won the 2005 and 2010 referendums by similar margins.

    Mwai Kibaki was overrated and was not a popular Kenyan president.

    Kenya’s fourth President, Uhuru Kenyatta, cannot be described as having been popular either.

    Uhuru Kenyatta won two Kenyan presidential elections, in 2013 and 2017, both of which were disputed and both of which had to be decided by the Supreme Court of Kenya.

    In fact, four consecutive Kenyan presidential elections have been disputed—those of 2007, 2013, 2017, and 2022—and three consecutive Kenyan elections have had to be decided by the Supreme Court of Kenya (2013, 2017, and 2022).

    This pattern indicates that there is no unifying or broadly popular leader in Kenya and suggests that Kenya is heavily divided, fragmented, disillusioned, polarized, and distrustful of its leaders and leadership.

    William Ruto is not a popular president, though exactly the same applies to Kenya’s first four presidents: Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel T. arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki, and Uhuru Kenyatta.

    As a matter of fact, if you speak to Black Kenyan men and women aged about 80 years and above today in 2025—people who have experienced life in Kenya under British colonial rule and under the Kenyan presidencies of Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel T. arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta, and William Ruto—a good number will tell you that life was better in Colonial Kenya than it has been since independence in 1963.

    A good number will tell you that things worked better in Kenya under British colonial rule than they have since independence in 1963, and that they long for the “good old days.”

    NB: Opinions are writer’s own.

  • How Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful’ Bill Is Going To Devastate Kenyans in Diaspora

    How Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful’ Bill Is Going To Devastate Kenyans in Diaspora

    A new remittance tax threatens to upend the financial lifeline that over 100,000 Kenyans in America provide to their families back home

    NAIROBI, Kenya – In a cramped apartment in Nairobi’s Kibera slum, 67-year-old Grace Wanjiku clutches her mobile phone, waiting for the familiar beep that signals money has arrived from her son in Boston.

    For the past eight years, these monthly transfers of $300 have meant the difference between survival and destitution—covering her medication, rent, and groceries.

    But come January 2026, that lifeline could shrink dramatically.

    President Donald Trump’s signature on July 4th of what he calls the “One Big Beautiful Bill” has set in motion a seismic shift that will ripple through millions of households across Kenya and the developing world. The legislation, which squeaked through Congress after intense Republican lobbying, introduces America’s first-ever national tax on remittances—the money migrants send home to their families.

    The Numbers Tell a Devastating Story

    The mathematics are stark and unforgiving. Kenya received $2.63 billion in remittances from the United States in 2024, accounting for more than half of the country’s total diaspora inflows of $4.95 billion.

    Kenya’s economic resilience continues to be underpinned by the unwavering support of its vast diaspora, as remittances hit a remarkable US$440.08 million in May 2025, making it the second-largest monthly inflow on record.

    Under the new law, every dollar sent through formal channels—banks, Western Union, MoneyGram, and money transfer apps—will be subject to a 1% excise tax. While this might seem modest, the cumulative impact threatens to extract over $26 million annually from the Kenyan-American community alone.

    “This isn’t just about numbers on a spreadsheet,” says Dr. Shem Ochuodho, global chairman of the Kenya Diaspora Alliance.

    “This is about families who depend on these transfers for basic survival—school fees, medical bills, food. The Trump administration is essentially taxing poverty alleviation.”

    From 5% to 1%: A Political Compromise with Real Consequences

    The journey of this legislation through Congress reveals the raw political calculations behind what affects millions of lives.

    Initially proposed at a punitive 5% rate, the tax was negotiated down to 3.5% by the House of Representatives before the Senate further reduced it to 1%.

    The rollback follows mounting concerns among the Indian diaspora after the 5 per cent proposal sparked widespread anxiety.

    India, after all, is the largest recipient of global remittances. The lobbying pressure from larger diaspora communities, particularly from India, played a crucial role in the reduction.

    Yet even at 1%, the impact on Kenyan families remains profound.

    Consider the typical monthly transfer of $500 from a Kenyan nurse working in Houston to her family in Mombasa.

    Under the new tax, $5 will be skimmed off before the money even leaves American shores. Over a year, that’s $60—enough to cover a month’s worth of groceries for a family of four in many parts of Kenya.

    The Ripple Effect Across Kenya’s Economy

    The implications extend far beyond individual households. Remittances have become a cornerstone of Kenya’s economic stability, surpassing foreign direct investment and often proving more reliable than aid flows.

    This is higher than total foreign direct investment flows estimated at $1.504 billion (Sh194.02 billion) in 2023.

    The Central Bank of Kenya has watched with growing concern as remittances have become integral to the country’s balance of payments.

    Any disruption to these flows could have cascading effects on the shilling’s stability, import capacity, and overall economic growth.

    Small businesses across Kenya have also built their models around the predictable flow of diaspora money.

    From mobile money agents in rural areas to foreign exchange bureaus in Nairobi, an entire ecosystem has evolved around these transfers. The new tax threatens to destabilize this network.

    Perhaps most concerning for policy makers is the likely shift toward informal channels. Moreover, research shows that taxing remittances leads to increased use of underground or informal channels for sending money.

    That is, senders seek out alternatives—less regulated, less transparent, and less safe ways of transferring their money abroad.

    Dr. Ochuodho warns of this dangerous trend: “Remember, tax evasion is illegal, but tax avoidance isn’t. Some people will likely move to cryptocurrencies—and the world is moving in that direction.”

    The hawala system, an informal money transfer network that has operated for centuries, could see a resurgence.

    While efficient, these systems operate outside regulatory frameworks, making them vulnerable to abuse and removing the transparency that formal channels provide.

    Kenya is not alone in facing this challenge. In countries like Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, and Ethiopia, remittances account for a significant portion of GDP, often surpassing foreign direct investment and aid flows.

    The tax represents a fundamental shift in how America views its relationship with the global diaspora.

    The legislation is part of Trump’s broader immigration and border security agenda, with proceeds earmarked for enforcement activities.

    President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which has passed the House of Representatives, includes a 3.5 percent tax on remittances, money migrants send home to family and friends.

    The Human Cost of Policy

    Back in Kibera, Grace Wanjiku represents the human face of this policy shift.

    Her son David, a certified nurse assistant in Boston, has been sending money home since 2016.

    The new tax means he’ll need to choose between reducing the amount he sends or absorbing the additional cost from his already stretched budget.

    “I came to America to build a better life for my family,” David says via WhatsApp.

    “Now I’m being punished for helping my mother survive. It feels like they’re telling us that caring for our families is a luxury we can’t afford.”

    The cruel irony is that many Kenyans in the diaspora are performing essential work in America—as healthcare workers, teachers, and skilled professionals.

    They contribute to Social Security, pay federal and state taxes, and participate fully in American society. Yet they’re being penalized for maintaining connections to their homeland.

    The tax will take effect on January 1, 2026, giving remittance service providers time to update their systems and train staff.

    Remittance providers will have until the end of 2025 to update their systems and train staff to comply with the new requirements.

    Kenyan diaspora organizations are mobilizing resistance efforts, planning legal challenges and lobbying campaigns.

    They’re particularly focused on the 2026 midterm elections, hoping that a shift in Congressional composition might lead to the tax’s repeal.

    “Our only hope is that with the upcoming mid-term elections, more Democrats could be elected to the House and reverse it,” Dr. Ochuodho notes, though he acknowledges the uphill battle ahead.

    Economic Experts Weigh In

    International tax experts have criticized the measure as economically counterproductive.

    Hadijah Nannyomo, a partner for international trade and indirect taxes at EY, points out that the tax violates basic principles of taxation by applying to the quantum of money transferred rather than the service fee.

    “Sending less would have an impact on the receiving households, limiting the capacity to save, and in turn may increase the intention to migrate,” said Orozco, who also serves as a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Center for International Development.

    The paradox is evident: a tax designed to strengthen border security might actually increase migration pressure by destabilizing the very communities that currently provide alternatives to emigration.

    From a development standpoint, the remittance tax runs counter to international goals for reducing the cost of money transfers.

    The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals target reducing remittance costs to 3% of the transfer amount, yet the new tax effectively moves in the opposite direction.

    Currently, Kenyans in the diaspora already face high transfer costs, with some providers charging up to 9% to send money home.

    The additional 1% tax will push total costs even higher, potentially pricing out smaller, more frequent transfers that often matter most to struggling families.

    Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” sends a clear message about America’s changing relationship with its immigrant communities.

    For Kenyans who have built lives in America while maintaining strong ties to home, the message is particularly stark: your contributions are welcome, but your connections to family are taxable.

    The legislation represents more than just a fiscal policy—it’s a statement about who belongs and who doesn’t, about which kinds of international connections are valued and which are seen as problems to be solved.

    As Grace Wanjiku in Kibera prepares for potentially smaller transfers from her son, and as David in Boston calculates whether he can afford to absorb the additional cost, the human impact of policy decisions becomes crystal clear.

    The “Big Beautiful Bill” may deliver on its promise of generating revenue for border security, but it does so by taxing the love and obligation that drive children to care for their parents across oceans.

    The coming months will test the resilience of these transnational family networks and the creativity of communities in adapting to new realities.

    One thing is certain: the bonds between Kenyans in America and their families at home will endure, even as the cost of maintaining them continues to rise.

    The real question is whether American policy makers will recognize the human cost of their “beautiful” legislation—or if they’ll continue to view the diaspora’s devotion to family as just another source of government revenue.

  • Why Ruto Dumped Isiolo Governor Abdi Guyo: A Political Betrayal in the Making

    Why Ruto Dumped Isiolo Governor Abdi Guyo: A Political Betrayal in the Making

    The dramatic political downfall of Isiolo Governor Abdi Ibrahim Guyo represents one of the most striking examples of how quickly political alliances can crumble in Kenya’s fluid political landscape. Once a trusted ally who secretly supported President William Ruto during the 2022 elections, Guyo now finds himself impeached and isolated, a victim of both his own political miscalculations and Ruto’s strategic abandonment.

    The Rise and Fall of a Political Opportunist

    Governor Guyo’s journey from Nairobi’s Matopeni Ward MCA to Isiolo Governor was remarkable by any standard. Elected in 2022 on a Jubilee Party ticket under the Azimio La Umoja coalition, Guyo made headlines in June 2023 when he revealed he had secretly supported Ruto during the elections, subsequently defecting to the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

    This political somersault should have been the first warning sign. A politician willing to betray his coalition partners so brazenly was unlikely to inspire long-term confidence, even from his new benefactor.

    The February Heckling: The Beginning of the End

    The turning point in Ruto-Guyo relations came during the President’s northern Kenya tour in February 2025. What was supposed to be a triumphant visit to launch the County Aggregation and Industrial Park project at Isiolo’s Prison Farm grounds turned into a political nightmare when angry youths disrupted Ruto’s speech with chants of “Ruto must go!”

    The incident was deeply embarrassing for a president who prides himself on crowd control and political choreography. More damaging were the subsequent revelations that the heckling wasn’t spontaneous but orchestrated by local political players.

    Senator Fatuma Dullo’s explosive testimony on the Senate floor pointed directly at Governor Guyo, claiming there was “documented evidence including a leaked video showing top county political leadership actively mobilising individuals to cause disruptions.” She alleged that Guyo had threatened to mobilise 5,000 people and promised “brimstone fire” against opposing leaders.

    The Security Failure That Sealed Guyo’s Fate

    Perhaps most damaging to Guyo was Dullo’s revelation that the governor had “micromanaged every aspect of the presidential schedule and programming,” deliberately keeping security agencies and other leaders in the dark. This suggested either gross incompetence or deliberate sabotage – neither of which would endear him to State House.

    For a president who takes security matters seriously, having a governor who could facilitate such a public humiliation was unforgivable. The fact that over 40 youths were subsequently arrested while the alleged orchestrators remained free only added insult to injury.

    A Pattern of Mismanagement and Controversy

    The heckling incident merely highlighted deeper problems with Guyo’s leadership that had been festering for months:

    Financial Mismanagement: Despite Isiolo receiving one of the lowest revenue allocations among counties, Guyo appointed 36 advisors and 31 chief officers, creating an unsustainable wage bill. His failure to meet county revenue targets while presiding over numerous stalled development projects painted a picture of administrative incompetence.

    Ghost Workers Scandal: A leaked payroll in October 2024 revealed irregular recruitment practices that sparked public outrage, with 11 MCAs accusing the executive of systematic fraud.

    Absentee Leadership: MCAs accused Guyo of frequently being absent from office and executing county functions from Nairobi, violating his constitutional duties.

    Misogynistic Conduct: The National Gender and Equality Commission condemned Guyo’s “misogynistic remarks” against Senator Dullo, calling them gender-based violence and demanding accountability.

    Ruto’s Silent Treatment: A Political Death Sentence

    While Guyo desperately claimed to have spoken with Ruto twice in June, insisting the president had given no orders for his removal, the silence from State House was deafening. In Kenya’s political system, presidential silence is often more damaging than outright opposition.

    When grassroots leaders pleaded with Ruto to intervene in the standoff between Guyo and the MCAs, the president remained conspicuously absent from the discourse. This calculated silence sent a clear message to both the MCAs and Guyo about where presidential sympathies lay.

    The Impeachment: A Foregone Conclusion

    By the time Sericho MCA Abubakar Godana tabled the impeachment motion on June 18, the outcome was predetermined. The fact that 16 out of 18 MCAs voted for Guyo’s removal despite his claims of external interference demonstrated the depth of local opposition to his leadership.

    The charges were comprehensive: gross misconduct, violation of the Constitution, abuse of office, and failure to uphold leadership and integrity standards. These weren’t merely technical violations but fundamental breaches of public trust.

    The Chaos That Followed: A County in Crisis

    The aftermath of the impeachment motion revealed the extent of Guyo’s isolation. Violent protests at the County Assembly, with broken doors, vandalized equipment, and MCAs requiring police protection, showed a county in political chaos.

    The emergence of two parallel power structures – with embattled Clerk Salad Boru gazetting an alternative Speaker while supporting only two MCAs – created a constitutional crisis reminiscent of similar standoffs in other counties.

    Why Ruto Cut Guyo Loose

    Several factors explain Ruto’s abandonment of his former ally:

    Reputational Damage: The February heckling incident made Guyo a political liability. Keeping him would remind Kenyans of one of Ruto’s most embarrassing moments.

    Poor Performance: Guyo’s track record of stalled projects, financial mismanagement, and administrative chaos made him indefensible.

    Local Opposition: With 89% of MCAs supporting his removal, Guyo had lost all local legitimacy. Supporting him would have appeared dictatorial.

    Strategic Calculation: Sacrificing Guyo allowed Ruto to appear respectful of democratic processes while distancing himself from a problematic ally.

    The Broader Political Lesson

    Guyo’s downfall illustrates the precarious nature of political relationships in Kenya’s transactional system. His initial betrayal of Azimio, while temporarily beneficial, established him as someone whose loyalty could be bought and sold.

    More fundamentally, it demonstrates that even presidential allies must deliver results. Poor governance, financial mismanagement, and public embarrassments will eventually outweigh political connections.

    Conclusion: A Political Orphan

    As Governor Guyo faces Senate proceedings following his impeachment, he finds himself politically orphaned. His former Azimio allies have no reason to assist someone who betrayed them, while his UDA colleagues have clearly decided he’s more liability than asset.

    The man who once boasted of secret presidential support now stands alone, a cautionary tale about the dangers of political opportunism and poor governance. His fall from grace serves as a reminder that in Kenya’s evolving political landscape, performance increasingly matters as much as connections.

    For President Ruto, dumping Guyo was a cold but necessary political calculation. In the ruthless arithmetic of power, loyalty becomes worthless when it’s accompanied by incompetence and public embarrassment. Governor Guyo learned this lesson the hard way.

    The author is a political analyst specializing in Kenyan county politics and governance issues.

  • Why BFK ‘Jamal’ Otieno Doesn’t Deserve to Be in Office

    Why BFK ‘Jamal’ Otieno Doesn’t Deserve to Be in Office

    A Case for Integrity in Sports Leadership

    The recent re-election of Anthony “Jamal” Otieno as president of the Boxing Federation of Kenya (BFK) represents a troubling departure from the principles of good governance that should guide our sporting institutions. While Otieno was re-elected unopposed in March 2025, his continued leadership raises serious questions about integrity standards in Kenyan sports administration.

    The Constitutional Imperative

    Kenya’s Constitution, specifically Chapter Six, establishes clear principles for leadership and integrity, requiring that conduct of public officers “demonstrates respect for the people,” “brings honour to the nation and dignity to the office,” and “promotes public confidence in the integrity of the office.” Sports federations, as public entities receiving government funding and representing Kenya internationally, must be held to these same standards.

    The Boxing Federation of Kenya is not merely a private club—it is a public institution that shapes Kenya’s international sporting reputation, manages public resources, and influences the lives of young athletes across the country. Its leadership must therefore meet the constitutional threshold for integrity established in Chapter Six.

    A Pattern of Questionable Leadership

    Otieno’s ascent to power in 2019 was marked by irregularities that should have served as warning signs. In an election that defied conventional political logic, Otieno’s sole opponent, Siaya county chairman Ramjus Oketch, lost by an impossible margin of 41-0—meaning Oketch somehow voted for his own rival in a contest with no spoiled ballots. This outcome, which observers attributed to financial inducements and intimidation tactics, established a troubling precedent for how Otieno approaches opposition.

    Such tactics represent the antithesis of democratic governance and fair play—principles that should be fundamental to any sports federation leadership.

    The Shadow of Corruption

    More damaging to Otieno’s fitness for office are the serious criminal charges he faces. In 2024, the High Court overturned his acquittal on corruption charges totaling 20 million shillings, ordering a retrial. This case, involving conspiracy to commit corruption, conflict of interest, money laundering, and acquisition of proceeds of crime, is part of a larger pattern of alleged misconduct that includes charges totaling 537 million shillings in connection with the Nairobi county government.

    The Director of Public Prosecutions pursued these charges based on recommendations from the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission, indicating the seriousness of the allegations. While legal proceedings continue, the pattern of charges raises fundamental questions about whether someone under such scrutiny should lead a public institution.

    The Counterfeit Alcohol Allegations

    Perhaps most disturbing are persistent allegations about Otieno’s involvement in manufacturing and distributing counterfeit alcoholic beverages. These allegations suggest a criminal enterprise that endangers public health through the sale of potentially dangerous fake alcohol to unsuspecting consumers across Kenya.

    If true, such activities represent not merely financial crimes but actions that could directly harm Kenyan citizens. The manufacture and distribution of counterfeit alcohol has been linked to deaths and serious health complications in other cases, making these allegations particularly grave.

    The Money Laundering Concern

    Observers have noted that Otieno’s entry into both the matatu industry and boxing federation leadership coincided with his alleged accumulation of wealth through questionable means. His matatu sacco, cryptically named “River of God,” and his sports federation role appear to serve as vehicles for legitimizing wealth of dubious origin rather than genuine commitment to public service or sports development.

    This pattern—using legitimate businesses and public positions to launder proceeds from illegal activities—is a classic hallmark of organized crime that has no place in Kenyan sports administration.

    Impact on Kenya’s Boxing Future

    Under questionable leadership, the Boxing Federation of Kenya risks squandering significant opportunities. The federation stands to benefit from major annual grants from the Africa Boxing Confederation, and boxing’s future in the Olympics depends partly on governance standards. The International Olympic Committee has recently granted provisional recognition to World Boxing after meeting benchmarks for integrity, underscoring how crucial clean governance has become for the sport’s Olympic future.

    Kenya’s boxers deserve leadership that can maximize these opportunities rather than leaders whose legal troubles and alleged criminal associations could jeopardize international relationships and funding.

    A Question of Priorities

    While Otieno speaks of expanding boxing into schools and preparing for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, his track record suggests priorities that extend far beyond sports development. A leader genuinely committed to boxing would focus on transparent governance, athlete welfare, and clean competition rather than using the federation as a platform for other interests.

    The young boxers participating in his “Ndondi Mashinani” initiative deserve better than leadership that treats their sport as a side business to more lucrative but questionable enterprises.

    The Way Forward

    Kenya’s sporting community and government officials must recognize that accepting compromised leadership in sports federations sends a dangerous message. It suggests that integrity is negotiable, that criminal allegations are acceptable so long as someone can deliver short-term results, and that our young athletes’ futures matter less than maintaining the status quo.

    As legal scholars have noted, “Kenyans were very clear in their intentions when they entrenched Chapter Six in the Constitution” and its provisions “should have a substantive bite.” This principle must extend to sports leadership, where public trust and international reputation are equally at stake.

    The Ministry of Sports, which supervised Otieno’s recent re-election, must develop and enforce stricter vetting procedures for sports federation leadership. There is “a recognized need to reduce the standard of proof for cases related to the implementation of Chapter 6” to ensure that integrity requirements have practical meaning.

    Anthony “Jamal” Otieno’s continued leadership of the Boxing Federation of Kenya represents a failure of Kenya’s commitment to integrity in public life. His alleged involvement in corruption, counterfeit alcohol production, and intimidation tactics makes him fundamentally unfit for a position that should exemplify the best of Kenyan sportsmanship and leadership.

    Our boxers, our youth, and our nation deserve better. It is time for Kenya’s sporting community to demand leadership that meets the constitutional standards we claim to value—leadership that truly serves the sport rather than using it as a vehicle for personal enrichment and legitimizing questionable wealth.

    The integrity of Kenyan boxing, and indeed all our sports, depends on leaders who can pass the most basic test of public service: putting the public interest above personal gain. On this fundamental measure, Jamal Otieno has failed repeatedly and spectacularly.

    Kenya’s boxers deserve champions in the ring and in the boardroom. They deserve leadership they can be proud of, not leadership they must explain away.

  • Avoid Protected Areas, Police IG Kanja Warns Ahead of State House Protests

    Avoid Protected Areas, Police IG Kanja Warns Ahead of State House Protests

    Police chief issues stern warning as Kenya prepares for Wednesday memorial demonstrations marking anniversary of deadly Finance Bill protests

    Inspector General of Police Douglas Kanja has issued a stern warning to protesters planning to participate in Wednesday’s memorial demonstrations, cautioning them to stay away from protected areas including State House as the nation marks the first anniversary of the deadly anti-Finance Bill protests.

    In a brief but pointed press conference lasting less than ten minutes on Monday, IG Kanja emphasized that police officers will act within the confines of the law to protect lives and property, while urging demonstrators to operate within legal boundaries.

    “Police officers shall act within the confines of the law to protect lives and property,” Kanja stated, flanked by senior security officials including DCI Amin Mohamed, GSU commandant Ranson Lolmodoni, and Nairobi county commander George Seda.

    Protected Areas Off-Limits

    The warning comes as organizers have announced countrywide marches in all 47 counties starting at 10:00am on Wednesday, June 25, in addition to vigils and gatherings in the Nairobi Central Business District, marking exactly one year since protesters stormed Parliament buildings in demonstrations that resulted in at least 22 deaths and numerous injuries.

    State House, along with several other key locations in Kenya, is classified as a protected area under the Kenya Protected Areas Act, with unauthorized entry carrying significant legal penalties.

    Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen has also strongly warned protesters against storming the State House or Parliament on Wednesday, June 25, reinforcing the government’s position on protecting designated security zones.

    Security Preparations Underway

    Nairobi police commander George Seda had earlier reassured the public that security organs were prepared to enhance safety during the Wednesday protests, stating on June 18: “We have the plan and we shall be there to provide enough and good security to ensure every person who is going to participate and those not going to participate will be safe.”

    Commander Seda confirmed that police had received official communication about the planned protests as required by law, but appealed for peaceful demonstrations that would not interfere with normal business operations.

    “Let’s restrict ourselves to what we call peaceful demonstrations. Let’s not have demonstrations which are going to interfere with other people who may not be part of the demonstrators,” Seda said.

    “Remember, it will be a working day and we shall be having people operating hotels, shops and other businesses.”

    Memorial vs. Demonstration Controversy

    The Wednesday events have sparked debate over their nature and legality.

    While protesters frame them as memorial activities to honor those killed during last year’s demonstrations, government officials have taken a different stance.

    Government Spokesperson Isaac Mwaura declared: “There will be no demonstrations on June 25. Anyone who wishes to mark the day is free to do so — at home,” suggesting the government does not recognize the events as legitimate protests.

    However, many hope for peaceful demonstrations in honor of those who lost their lives in last year’s historic movement, with organizers calling for a peaceful ‘flower and flag’ march in major cities including Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru and Eldoret.

    Recent Tensions and Violence

    The memorial protests come amid heightened tensions following recent incidents of police violence.

    A Kenyan police officer was arrested over the shooting of an unarmed civilian during protests in Nairobi touched off by the death of a blogger in police custody, highlighting ongoing concerns about police conduct during demonstrations.

    Last week’s protest against police killings turned violent after attacks by men with whips and batons, raising fears about potential state infiltration of peaceful demonstrations.

    IG Kanja’s warning reflects the strict legal framework governing protected areas in Kenya.

    The Protected Areas Act Cap 204 prohibits unauthorized entry into designated zones, with violations carrying significant penalties including potential imprisonment.

    The law covers various installations including government buildings, airports, military facilities, and critical infrastructure, all deemed essential to national security.

    International Attention

    The planned demonstrations have drawn international attention, with the U.S. Embassy issuing a demonstration alert for American citizens, noting that demonstrations may take place throughout next week with little advance notice.

    This reflects broader international concern about Kenya’s handling of protests and human rights issues, particularly following last year’s deadly confrontations.

    As Kenya approaches the anniversary of one of its most significant protest movements in recent history, the tension between memorial rights and security concerns remains palpable. L

    IG Kanja’s warning underscores the government’s determination to prevent any repeat of last year’s violent scenes, while protesters maintain their right to peaceful assembly and remembrance.

    The events of Wednesday, June 25, will likely serve as a critical test of Kenya’s commitment to both security and democratic rights as the nation grapples with the legacy of the Finance Bill protests and ongoing calls for accountability and reform.

    The Finance Bill protests of 2024 marked a watershed moment in Kenyan politics, with largely young demonstrators successfully pressuring the government to withdraw controversial tax legislation, though at a significant human cost.

  • How Deep is DIG Lagat in The Kenyan Deep State?

    How Deep is DIG Lagat in The Kenyan Deep State?

    A Political Analysis of Power, Succession, and the Albert Ojwang Case

    The death of 31-year-old teacher and blogger Albert Ojwang in police custody has exposed more than just alleged police brutality—it has revealed the intricate web of political maneuvering, succession battles, and power consolidation that defines Kenya’s security apparatus under President William Ruto’s administration.

    At the center of this storm stands Deputy Inspector General Eliud Lagat, who on June 16, 2025, stepped aside from his position amid mounting pressure over Ojwang’s death.

    But the question remains: Is Lagat merely a scapegoat in a larger political game, or is he indeed the architect of a systematic consolidation of power that extends deep into what critics call Kenya’s “deep state”?

    The Ojwang Case: A Catalyst for Deeper Questions

    Albert Ojwang was arrested on June 6, 2025, in Homa Bay following a defamation complaint filed by Lagat himself.

    The blogger had allegedly published claims suggesting Lagat was under investigation by the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission.

    Within hours of being transferred 350 kilometers to Nairobi’s Central Police Station, Ojwang was dead.

    The initial police claim that he died by suicide after hitting his head on a wall was quickly debunked.

    An independent autopsy revealed blunt force trauma to the head, neck compression, and multiple soft tissue injuries—evidence consistent with a violent assault.

    This contradicted the police version of events and sparked nationwide protests.

    The timing and circumstances of Ojwang’s death have raised uncomfortable questions about the extent of Lagat’s influence within Kenya’s security establishment and his relationship with the presidency.

    The Succession Theory: Positioning for Power

    Multiple sources within government and security circles suggest that Lagat’s current troubles stem not just from the Ojwang case, but from his positioning as the heir apparent to Inspector General Douglas Kanja.

    This succession plan, allegedly orchestrated from State House, has created powerful enemies within the system.

    The mathematics of police leadership succession reveal the political calculations at play. Kanja, appointed in September 2024 at age 60, was already at the traditional retirement age for public servants.

    With the 2027 general election approaching, President Ruto reportedly needs a loyal ally at the helm of the police force—someone who can guarantee security during what promises to be a contentious electoral period.

    This is where Lagat’s alleged deep state connections become relevant.

    Sources indicate that he has been operating as a de facto police chief, making key decisions on deployments, promotions, and transfers.

    His influence allegedly extends to personally selecting Officer Commanding Police Stations, with a notable preference for officers from the Kalenjin community—Ruto’s ethnic group.

    The Gachagua Factor: Political Warfare

    Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
    Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

    The role of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in the anti-Lagat campaign cannot be ignored.

    Gachagua’s recent claims that Lagat heads a “killer squad” of 101 police officers responsible for abductions and torture of government critics have added a political dimension to what might otherwise be seen as a straightforward police brutality case.

    Gachagua’s accusations—including claims that Lagat personally operates key police stations like Kamukunji and Central—suggest a power struggle that goes beyond justice for Ojwang.

    The former deputy president’s revelation that Lagat had been behind the systematic transfer and demotion of Kikuyu police officers in favor of Kalenjin appointees points to ethnic considerations in security sector appointments.

    This ethnic dimension raises questions about whether the attacks on Lagat are motivated by genuine concerns about police brutality or by political calculations ahead of the 2027 elections.

    The Deep State Architecture

    Lagat’s alleged deep state connections manifest in several ways:

    Direct State House Access : Sources confirm that Lagat reports directly to State House, briefing either President Ruto, Head of Public Service Felix Koskei, Private Secretary Farouk Kibet, or Interior CS Kipchumba Murkomen—all Kalenjin officials. This direct line of communication bypasses traditional command structures and suggests extraordinary influence.

    Operational Control : Allegations that Lagat has been the power behind key police operations, including the suppression of Gen Z protests in 2024 and various opposition activities, indicate his role extends beyond his official deputy position.

    Strategic Positioning : His career trajectory from GSU Commandant—a unit known for its ruthless efficiency—to the number two position in the police service, with apparent State House backing for the top job, suggests careful cultivation of political relationships.

    The Protection Paradox

    The most intriguing aspect of the Lagat saga is how someone allegedly so deeply embedded in the system could find himself so exposed.

    The initial protection from State House—reportedly blocking his resignation and insisting on due process—suggests his value to the administration.

    However, his eventual decision to step aside on June 16, 2025, came after what sources describe as intense behind-the-scenes pressure.

    The statement he released, citing “good and conscious thought” of his responsibilities, was notably different from earlier reports that he had been blocked from resigning.

    This shift suggests that even deep state connections have limits when public pressure becomes unsustainable.

    The nationwide protests, international attention, and parliamentary pressure appear to have forced a recalculation at the highest levels of government.

    The Lagat case reveals several uncomfortable truths about Kenya’s governance structure:

    Personalization of Security : The allegations suggest that key security decisions are made based more on personal and ethnic loyalty than institutional processes. This undermines the rule of law and professional governance.

    The timing of events—with the 2027 elections approaching—indicates that control of the security apparatus is seen as crucial for electoral success, raising questions about democratic governance.

    Deep State Reality :  Whether or not Lagat is guilty of the specific charges against him, his case confirms the existence of parallel power structures that operate outside normal constitutional frameworks.


    The Questions That Remain

    As investigations continue, several critical questions demand answers:

    How deep does Lagat’s influence actually extend within the security apparatus? Are the allegations against him part of genuine accountability efforts or political warfare? What does his case reveal about the militarization of political competition in Kenya?

    Most importantly, will the Ojwang case lead to meaningful police reform, or will it simply result in the replacement of one politically connected officer with another?

    The answers to these questions will determine whether Kenya’s democracy can survive the deep state tendencies that appear to have taken root in its security establishment.

    The case of DIG Eliud Lagat and the death of Albert Ojwang represents more than just another instance of police brutality in Kenya.

    It exposes the intersection of personal ambition, ethnic politics, and institutional capture that defines much of Kenya’s current governance structure.

    Whether Lagat is ultimately found culpable in Ojwang’s death, his case has already revealed the extent to which Kenya’s security apparatus has been personalized and politicized.

    The fact that a deputy police chief could allegedly operate parallel command structures, make key appointments based on ethnic considerations, and maintain direct access to the presidency while being linked to serious human rights violations suggests a system in crisis.

    The real question is not how deep Lagat is in the deep state—it’s how deep the deep state has penetrated Kenya’s democratic institutions.

    The answer to that question will determine whether Kenya can maintain its democratic trajectory or will slide further into authoritarian governance disguised as democracy.

    As Lagat steps aside and investigations continue, Kenyans must demand not just justice for Albert Ojwang, but a fundamental restructuring of the relationships between political power and security institutions. Only then can the country hope to break free from the deep state dynamics that threaten its democratic future.

    This analysis is based on publicly available information and multiple source reporting. The ongoing investigations by IPOA and other agencies will ultimately determine the facts of the case.

  • The Gachagua Trap: How Kindiki Risks Repeating His Predecessor’s Fatal Mistakes

    The Gachagua Trap: How Kindiki Risks Repeating His Predecessor’s Fatal Mistakes

    A Dangerous Pattern Emerges

    Seven months after Rigathi Gachagua’s historic impeachment as Kenya’s Deputy President, his successor Kithure Kindiki appears to be walking dangerously close to the same political precipice that claimed his predecessor.

    The parallels are striking, the timing suspicious, and the implications profound for both Kenya’s political stability and the Deputy President’s own survival.

    Between May 1 and May 23, 2025, Kindiki made an extraordinary 36 visits to Mt. Kenya region—the same political heartland that both elevated and ultimately destroyed Gachagua.

    In contrast, he made only eight appearances outside this region during the same period.

    This lopsided focus has triggered alarm bells among political observers who witnessed firsthand how regional fixation became Gachagua’s Achilles heel.

    The Ghost of Impeachment Past

    Gachagua’s downfall in October 2024 was swift and decisive.

    The Senate voted 54-13 to remove him from office on charges including gross violation of the constitution, corruption, abuse of office, and—most tellingly—stirring ethnic hatred through divisive politics.

    The impeachment motion succeeded because Gachagua had painted himself into a corner as a regional champion rather than a national leader.

    The former Deputy President’s fatal flaw was his perceived transformation from a national figure into what critics labeled a “Mt. Kenya supremacist.” His rhetoric increasingly centered on protecting the interests of his home region, often at the expense of national cohesion.

    This regional tunnel vision made him vulnerable when President William Ruto needed a scapegoat for mounting political pressures.

    Kindiki’s Perilous Path

    Now, barely six months into his tenure, Kindiki seems to be following the same playbook with alarming precision.

    His intensive Mt. Kenya tour—averaging more than one visit per day to the region—mirrors Gachagua’s strategy of building a regional power base.

    The Deputy President has been present at economic empowerment events, fundraisers, development launches, and community gatherings across Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, Laikipia, and Nyandarua counties.

    On May 21, while commissioning the upgraded Limuru Dairy factory, Kindiki declared: “The government is supporting value addition in agriculture. We are also implementing the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda.”

    While seemingly innocuous, such statements delivered exclusively in Mt. Kenya venues create the dangerous perception of regional favoritism—the same accusation that ultimately destroyed Gachagua.

    The Political Mathematics of Survival

    What makes Kindiki’s strategy particularly puzzling is that he should have learned from Gachagua’s mistakes.

    The Mt. Kenya region, while politically significant with approximately 20% of Kenya’s population, is not large enough to sustain a Deputy President who becomes perceived as regionally captured.

    Gachagua discovered this harsh reality when his impeachment received support not just from Ruto’s allies, but also from opposition lawmakers who saw him as divisive.

    The current political dynamics make Kindiki’s regional focus even more dangerous.

    President Ruto is facing his own legitimacy challenges following the Gen Z protests that forced him to withdraw the controversial Finance Bill 2024.

    In such circumstances, a Deputy President who appears to be building an independent power base becomes a liability rather than an asset.

    The Familiar Warning Signs

    Several red flags indicate Kindiki may be repeating Gachagua’s errors:

    Regional Capture: The overwhelming focus on Mt. Kenya counties creates an impression that the Deputy President prioritizes one region over others. This perception of regional favoritism was central to Gachagua’s impeachment charges.

    Timing and Intensity: Making 36 visits to one region in just 23 days suggests political ambition beyond routine government duties. The frequency mirrors Gachagua’s pre-impeachment hyperactivity in the same region.

    Alliance Building: Reports indicate that former Gachagua loyalists are now gravitating toward Kindiki, potentially recreating the same regional political machinery that made the former Deputy President appear threatening to the President.

    Economic Messaging: By positioning himself as the champion of Mt. Kenya’s economic interests, Kindiki risks being seen as prioritizing regional concerns over national unity—exactly the trap that ensnared Gachagua.

    The Historical Context

    Kenya’s history is littered with Deputy Presidents who fell out with their principals, often due to perceived regional overreach.

    From Josephat Karanja to Michael Kijana Wamalwa, and most recently Gachagua, the pattern is consistent: Deputy Presidents who build independent regional power bases inevitably clash with Presidents who view such activities as threats to their authority.

    Kindiki’s legal background should make him acutely aware of this pattern.

    As a constitutional law professor, he understands better than most that the Deputy President’s role is inherently subordinate and precarious.

    The constitution provides the President with significant latitude to manage his deputy, and impeachment remains a viable option when political relationships sour.

    The Strategic Miscalculation

    What makes Kindiki’s approach particularly puzzling is its strategic shortsightedness. By focusing intensively on Mt. Kenya, he risks several negative outcomes:

    Presidential Suspicion: President Ruto may begin to view his deputy as building an alternative power center, leading to the same trust deficit that destroyed Gachagua.

    National Alienation: Other regions may perceive Kindiki as captured by Mt. Kenya interests, limiting his national appeal and making him politically expendable.

    Opposition Ammunition: Critics can easily point to the regional imbalance in his activities as evidence of favoritism, weakening the administration’s national cohesion narrative.

    The Path Forward

    If Kindiki hopes to avoid Gachagua’s fate, he must urgently recalibrate his approach. This requires:

    Geographic Balance: Ensuring visits to all regions reflect Kenya’s national character rather than regional preferences.

    Message Discipline: Avoiding rhetoric that can be interpreted as regional favoritism or ethnic mobilization.

    Subordinate Positioning: Maintaining clear deference to President Ruto while building his own profile within acceptable bounds.

    National Focus: Emphasizing policies and projects that benefit all Kenyans rather than appearing to champion regional interests.

    The Broader Implications

    Kindiki’s current trajectory has implications beyond his personal political survival.

    Kenya’s stability depends partly on the perception that national leaders serve all citizens equally.

    A Deputy President who appears regionally captured undermines this principle and potentially fuels the same ethnic tensions that have periodically destabilized the country.

    Moreover, if Kindiki follows Gachagua’s path to impeachment, it would establish a dangerous precedent where Deputy Presidents from Mt. Kenya are systematically removed for regional overreach.

    This could further inflame political tensions and make the position almost untenable for leaders from the region.

    Learning from History

    The parallels between Kindiki’s current activities and Gachagua’s pre-impeachment behavior are too stark to ignore.

    Both men focused intensively on Mt. Kenya, both built regional alliances, and both risked being perceived as putting regional interests above national unity.

    The key difference is that Kindiki still has time to change course.

    The Deputy President faces a critical choice: continue down the path that led to his predecessor’s spectacular downfall, or learn from history and chart a different course. His political survival—and Kenya’s stability—may well depend on making the right choice before it’s too late.

    The ghost of Gachagua’s impeachment should serve as a sobering reminder that in Kenyan politics, regional champions often become national casualties.

    Kindiki would be wise to heed this warning before he, too, falls into the trap that has claimed so many of his predecessors.

  • When Diplomacy Dies: Kenya’s Foreign Policy Crisis and the Failure of Mudavadi’s Leadership

    When Diplomacy Dies: Kenya’s Foreign Policy Crisis and the Failure of Mudavadi’s Leadership

    By Phanuel Boit

    The recent diplomatic crisis between Kenya and Tanzania represents more than just a bilateral spat—it exposes a fundamental breakdown in Kenya’s foreign policy apparatus and raises serious questions about the competency of our diplomatic leadership.

    The events surrounding the treatment of Kenyan citizens in Tanzania and the government’s response reveal a dangerous precedent that threatens both regional stability and Kenya’s standing in the East African Community.

    The diplomatic malpractice

    When Kenyan activist Boniface Mwangi was abducted, tortured, and deported from Tanzania, alongside veteran advocate Martha Karua, Kenya faced a critical diplomatic test.

    These citizens, regardless of their political affiliations or the nature of their mission to support Tanzanian opposition leader Tundu Lissu, deserved the full protection and advocacy of their government. Instead, they were met with celebration from their own leaders.

    Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi’s response—”You cannot take bad manners to other people’s country. Once the flight leaves this country, everything changes including the law“—represents a catastrophic failure of diplomatic responsibility.

    This statement not only abandoned Kenyan citizens in distress but effectively endorsed Tanzania’s questionable treatment of them.

    The abandonment doctrine

    Mudavadi’s position establishes a dangerous precedent: that Kenyan citizens lose their government’s protection the moment they cross borders.

    This “abandonment doctrine” fundamentally contradicts the basic principles of diplomatic protection, where states have both a right and responsibility to protect their nationals abroad through diplomatic channels.

    Modern diplomacy requires nuanced engagement, not wholesale abandonment.

    Even when citizens engage in activities that their home government may not endorse, diplomatic protection remains a cornerstone of international relations.

    The appropriate response would have been quiet diplomatic engagement with Tanzanian authorities, seeking clarification on the charges and ensuring due process—not public celebration of their mistreatment.

    The cost of diplomatic vacuum

    The government’s failure to fulfill its protective role has created a dangerous vacuum, now filled by citizen diplomacy conducted through social media campaigns against Tanzanian leadership.

    While understandable given the circumstances, this bottom-up diplomatic response lacks the strategic coordination and measured approach that formal diplomacy provides.

    When citizens feel compelled to wage their own diplomatic battles, it signals a complete breakdown in institutional trust and capability. The resulting online tensions between Kenyan and Tanzanian citizens risk escalating into broader bilateral tensions that could affect trade, security cooperation, and regional integration efforts.

    Regional integration at risk

    Kenya and Tanzania are founding members of the East African Community, bound by shared commitments to regional integration, democratic governance, and mutual respect for sovereignty. The current crisis threatens these foundations. Tanzania’s treatment of Kenyan citizens and Kenya’s failure to respond appropriately both violate the spirit of East African brotherhood that underpins regional cooperation.

    The irony of inviting Tanzanian MPs for prayer sessions in Nairobi while failing to address the fundamental diplomatic breach shows a government that has lost sight of diplomatic priorities.

    Religious diplomacy, while valuable, cannot substitute for addressing core issues of citizen protection and mutual respect between nations.

    Effective diplomacy requires several immediate corrections.

    First, the Kenyan government must develop clear protocols for protecting citizens abroad, regardless of their political activities or affiliations.

    Second, diplomatic engagement with Tanzania must move beyond surface-level religious interactions to address substantive issues of mutual concern.

    Third, Cabinet Secretary Mudavadi must acknowledge the diplomatic failure and outline concrete steps to prevent similar incidents.

    This includes establishing regular diplomatic consultations with Tanzania and other EAC partners on issues affecting citizen welfare and cross-border activities.

    Finally, Kenya must recommit to the principles of regional integration that require addressing disputes through established diplomatic channels rather than allowing them to fester into popular movements that risk regional stability.

    This crisis extends beyond Kenya-Tanzania relations. It tests the viability of East African integration and demonstrates how quickly diplomatic failures can undermine decades of regional cooperation.

    Other EAC partners are watching closely, and Kenya’s response will influence how seriously regional diplomatic commitments are taken across the community.

    The failure to protect Mwangi and Karua represents more than individual cases—it signals a broader retreat from diplomatic responsibility that could encourage similar treatment of Kenyan citizens elsewhere.

    When governments fail to protect their citizens abroad, they invite similar treatment from other nations and undermine the entire system of diplomatic protection that serves as a foundation of international relations.

    Kenya’s foreign policy apparatus needs urgent reform, starting with a clear commitment to citizen protection and ending with renewed emphasis on professional diplomatic engagement.

    The alternative—a region where citizens wage their own diplomatic battles through social media while governments retreat from their responsibilities—serves no one’s interests and threatens the stability that East Africa has worked decades to build.

    The question now is whether Kenya’s leadership has the wisdom to recognize this crisis as an opportunity for diplomatic renewal, or whether we will continue down a path that abandons both our citizens and our regional responsibilities.

    The Writer is a Foreign Policy Analyst based in Nairobi.

    Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author in their personal capacity as a foreign policy analyst and do not represent the official position of Kenya Insights.

  • BCLB Chair Jane Mwikali Must Go: A Regulatory Failure That Costs Lives

    BCLB Chair Jane Mwikali Must Go: A Regulatory Failure That Costs Lives

    The Blood is on Your Hands, Reverend Makau

    By Amos Seii

    The latest exposé of Prophet David Maina’s sacred swindle should be the final nail in the coffin for Rev. Dr. Jane Mwikali Makau’s catastrophic tenure as Chairperson of the Betting Control and Licensing Board (BCLB). Once again, we witness the same shameful pattern: a gambling scam destroys thousands of Kenyan lives, the media exposes it, and only then does our toothless regulator spring into theatrical action.

    How many more Kenyans must lose their life savings, their children’s school fees, their hope, before we admit the obvious truth? Rev. Makau and her board have failed spectacularly, and their continued presence at the helm of BCLB is nothing short of criminal negligence.

    A Pattern of reactive incompetence

    The Yahweh Media Services scandal is not an isolated incident—it’s the latest chapter in a damning chronicle of regulatory failure.

    For months, Prophet Maina operated his elaborate con game right under BCLB’s nose, siphoning millions from Kenya’s most vulnerable citizens through rigged religious gambling shows.

    Whistleblowers reveal the operation was so brazen that Maina himself boasted of making Sh1.1 million in a single day, with daily hauls of Sh600,000 during peak periods.

    Where was Rev. Makau? Where was her vaunted oversight?

    The answer is as predictable as it is infuriating: nowhere to be found until NTV’s cameras started rolling.

    This is the same regulatory body that only banned gambling advertisements last month after sustained public outcry and media pressure—as if they were somehow unaware that predatory betting had been ravaging Kenyan families for years.

    It’s the same board that sat idle while crash games like Aviator drove young Kenyans to suicide, only scrambling for action after the body count became impossible to ignore.

    Conflict of interest or outright corruption?

    Rev. Mwikali graces an event sponsored by a gambling company.
    Rev. Mwikali graces an event sponsored by a gambling company.

    Rev. Makau’s cozy relationship with gambling operators has become an open secret that stinks to high heaven.

    Her appearances at betting industry functions, her blocking of CEO Peter Mbugi’s efforts to ban deadly crash games, and her consistent pattern of soft-pedaling enforcement actions all point to one uncomfortable conclusion: the person tasked with protecting Kenyans from gambling harm appears to be in bed with the very predators she’s meant to regulate.

    Industry insiders whisper of “packages” and private meetings with betting giants.

    Whether these allegations are true or not, the appearance of impropriety is so overwhelming that Rev. Makau’s position has become untenable.

    When your regulator is seen as an endorser rather than an enforcer, the entire system collapses.

    The human cost of regulatory capture

    Behind every rigged game and every unpunished scam are real Kenyan faces. Ruth Wanjiku, the elderly woman who lost Sh6,000 in less than an hour to Prophet Maina’s con.

    Joseph Ng’ang’a, the widower who gambled away his children’s school fees chasing false promises.

    The unnamed young Kenyans who took their own lives after losing everything to Aviator’s rigged algorithms.

    These are not statistics—they are indictments of a regulatory system that has prioritized industry profits over human lives. Every day Rev. Makau remains in office is another day these predators operate with impunity, knowing full well that Kenya’s gambling regulator is either incompetent, compromised, or both.

    The ‘Prophet’ Maina scandal: A case study in failure

    The Yahweh Media Services investigation reveals the depths of BCLB’s dysfunction.

    Prophet Maina operated multiple gambling platforms disguised as religious programming, using emotional manipulation and technical deceit to drain money from Kenya’s poorest households.

    The operation was so sophisticated that it included fake winners, scripted emotional appeals, and systematic targeting of vulnerable demographics.

    BCLB CEO Peter Mbugi admits the operation held no gambling license and was not permitted to conduct any form of gambling.

    Yet it operated for months, if not years, generating millions in illegal profits.

    When finally confronted, Maina simply pivoted to claiming he offered “lending services” instead of gambling—a transparent lie that any competent regulator should have seen through immediately.

    This is the regulatory environment Rev. Makau has created: one where sophisticated fraudsters can operate with virtual impunity, knowing that enforcement is reactive, toothless, and easily circumvented.

    The aviator debacle: When politics trumps public safety

    The internal conflict over banning Aviator and other crash games reveals everything wrong with Rev. Makau’s leadership.

    When CEO Mbugi proposed urgent action to address the growing suicide epidemic linked to these predatory games, Rev. Makau reportedly blocked him, issuing instead a watered-down directive that merely asked betting companies to resubmit paperwork.

    This wasn’t regulation—it was obstruction. While Kenyan families buried their children, Rev. Makau was apparently more concerned with protecting industry interests than saving lives.

    The March 25 memo that emerged from this internal sabotage stands as a testament to regulatory capture, prioritizing bureaucratic theater over meaningful action.

    Time for accountability

    Rev. Dr. Jane Mwikali Makau must resign immediately. Her tenure has been marked by consistent failure, apparent conflicts of interest, and a pattern of reactive governance that has cost Kenyan lives.

    The gambling industry she was meant to regulate has instead captured her, turning BCLB into little more than a licensing rubber stamp for predatory operators.

    But resignation alone is not enough. There must be a comprehensive investigation into BCLB’s failures, particularly any financial relationships between board members and gambling operators.

    If the rumors of “packages” and private meetings are true, criminal charges should follow.

    Kenya deserves a gambling regulator that puts public safety before industry profits, that proactively identifies and shuts down predatory operations, and that treats the protection of vulnerable citizens as its primary mandate. M

    Under Rev. Makau’s leadership, BCLB has failed on every count.

    The next BCLB leadership must implement immediate reforms: proactive monitoring of gambling operations, rigorous algorithm audits for all games, mandatory cooling-off periods for players, and severe penalties for operators who target vulnerable populations.

    Most importantly, the regulator must be genuinely independent, free from the industry capture that has neutered current enforcement efforts.

    But first, Rev. Makau must go. Every day she remains in office is another day of failed leadership, another opportunity for predators like Prophet Maina to exploit regulatory weakness, and another chance for more Kenyan families to be destroyed by unregulated gambling.

    The blood of gambling victims is on her hands. It’s time for her to face the consequences of her failures and step aside for leaders who will actually protect the Kenyan people.

    Rev. Makau, your time is up. Resign now, before more lives are lost to your incompetence.

    The Writer is a media critic.

    Note: Opinions are writer’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of Kenya Insights.

  • Rogue Director General: Accountability Crisis at Kenya Rural Roads Authority Demands Urgent Action

    Rogue Director General: Accountability Crisis at Kenya Rural Roads Authority Demands Urgent Action

    By Joseph Kithii

    The Kenya Rural Roads Authority (KeRRA) finds itself at the center of mounting allegations of corruption and mismanagement that can no longer be ignored. While Senator Samson Cherargei’s recent statements may initially sound dramatic, stakeholders across the roads sector increasingly echo his concerns about the authority’s leadership.

    At the heart of these concerns is KeRRA Director General Engineer Philemon Kandie, whose continued tenure raises significant questions.

    Court rulings have declared his recruitment process illegal, yet he remains in office.

    This situation undermines public confidence in both the institution and the broader governance framework that should ensure accountability in public appointments.

    The optics of leadership at KeRRA also raise eyebrows. Reports indicate that the Director General travels in a convoy of three Toyota Land Cruiser Prados accompanied by multiple bodyguards—a level of security detail that appears disproportionate for the position within the government hierarchy.

    Such displays of privilege, funded by taxpayers, send troubling signals about priorities within the organization.

    Former Senator Johnstone Muthama has publicly criticized what he describes as skewed allocation of road projects across counties, raising questions about the criteria used in project distribution.

    These allegations point to potential corruption in the tender allocation process—a serious concern given KeRRA’s mandate to improve rural infrastructure equitably across Kenya.

    Further troubling are reports about the Director General’s work patterns. Sources suggest irregular office attendance, with responsibilities frequently delegated to the Director of Road Asset Management, Engineer Kombo.

    Such absenteeism raises questions about oversight and leadership effectiveness at a critical infrastructure agency.

    Eng. Kombo has become notorious with his devilish relationship with rogue contractors mostly from the Somali community whom he’s often seen with in hotels as he collect bribes and allegedly award irregular contracts.

    The allegations surrounding KeRRA’s leadership extend beyond individual conduct to systemic issues affecting Kenya’s rural development.

    Road infrastructure is fundamental to economic growth, market access, and service delivery in rural areas.

    When the agency responsible for this critical mandate faces credibility challenges, the entire rural development agenda suffers.

    The concentration of tender awards among specific contractor demographics, as alleged, also raises questions about fair competition and value for money in public procurement.

    Kenya’s procurement laws exist precisely to prevent such concentration and ensure equitable opportunities for qualified contractors.

    These allegations demand thorough investigation by relevant oversight bodies, including Parliament, the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission, and the Office of the Auditor General.

    The public deserves transparency about KeRRA’s operations, tender processes, and leadership conduct.

    President William Ruto’s administration, which has positioned itself as committed to fighting corruption, faces a test of this commitment.

    Allowing questionable practices to continue at KeRRA would undermine the administration’s credibility on governance issues.

    The way forward requires:
    – Immediate investigation of all allegations by competent authorities
    – Review of KeRRA’s procurement processes and project allocation criteria
    – Evaluation of the Director General’s continued tenure given legal challenges to his appointment
    – Implementation of stronger oversight mechanisms to prevent future occurrences

    Kenya’s rural communities, who depend on KeRRA’s services, deserve better.

    The authority’s mandate is too important to be compromised by questions of corruption and mismanagement. Swift action to address these concerns is not just necessary—it’s urgent.

    The author is a concerned citizen committed to transparency and accountability in public service.

  • The Isaac Mwaura Communication Debacle: A Masterclass in Professional Incompetence

    The Isaac Mwaura Communication Debacle: A Masterclass in Professional Incompetence

    An Analysis of Government Communication Failures and the Price of Public Trust

    In the annals of government communication disasters, Isaac Mwaura’s three-day spectacle regarding the Public Seal will undoubtedly secure its place as a textbook example of how not to serve as a government spokesperson. What unfolded between Monday and Wednesday this week was not merely a simple mistake or miscommunication—it was a systematic demonstration of professional incompetence that raises fundamental questions about the standards we accept from our public servants.

    The anatomy of a communication catastrophe

    Government spokespersons carry a singular responsibility: to accurately and clearly convey official positions to the public.

    This role demands precision, preparation, and above all, credibility. Mwaura’s performance this week violated every principle of effective government communication with a brazenness that borders on the absurd.

    On Monday, with the confidence of someone announcing the weather, Mwaura declared that the Public Seal had been transferred from the Attorney General to the Head of Public Service, citing compliance with “the law.”

    When pressed for details about this mysterious legislation, his responses devolved into vague references to “sometime last year” and uncertain mutterings about public participation.

    For a government spokesman to make categorical legal declarations without basic knowledge of the legislative framework is not just embarrassing—it’s a dereliction of duty.

    The irony deepened when Mwaura chose to elaborate, painting the Head of Public Service as some sort of administrative superhero who “executes the President’s directives, manages daily government operations, and tackles corruption.”

    This theatrical embellishment revealed either a profound misunderstanding of government structure or a troubling tendency toward hyperbolic nonsense when faced with legitimate scrutiny.

    The art of the complete reversal

    What followed two days later was perhaps even more damaging: a complete 180-degree reversal that obliterated any remaining credibility.

    Suddenly, the “new law” vanished into thin air.

    The confident assertions about executive clarity evaporated. Instead, Mwaura retreated to citing the Office of the Attorney General Act and the Constitution—documents that had presumably not changed since Monday’s confident proclamations.

    This wasn’t a minor clarification or adjustment based on new information.

    This was a wholesale abandonment of an official position that had been stated with absolute certainty just 48 hours earlier. In the world of government communication, such reversals don’t just undermine the spokesperson—they erode public trust in the entire administration’s competence and reliability.

    The ultimate insult: Blaming the messenger

    Perhaps the most egregious aspect of this entire debacle was Mwaura’s decision to blame the media for the confusion he created.

    This represents the absolute nadir of professional responsibility.

    Rather than acknowledging his role in disseminating contradictory information, he had the audacity to lecture media houses about fact-verification while simultaneously demonstrating his own complete failure to verify the most basic facts about his own government’s positions.

    “We want to tell media houses to verify their facts before they publish,” he declared, apparently oblivious to the rich irony of a government official who had just spent three days broadcasting unverified information now lecturing journalists about accuracy.

    This level of tone-deafness suggests either remarkable self-delusion or a cynical calculation that the public won’t notice the contradiction.

    The professional standards crisis

    Mwaura’s performance shows a broader crisis in professional standards within government communication.

    The role of government spokesperson requires several fundamental competencies that were conspicuously absent this week:

    Preparation and Knowledge: A spokesperson must possess thorough knowledge of government positions before making public statements. Mwaura’s vague references to laws he couldn’t identify or date demonstrate a failure to meet this basic requirement.

    Consistency: Government positions should remain stable unless there are legitimate reasons for change, which should be clearly explained. Mwaura’s contradictory statements within a three-day period suggest either internal governmental chaos or personal incompetence—neither is acceptable.

    Accountability: When mistakes occur, professional integrity demands acknowledgment and correction. Mwaura’s decision to blame external parties for his own errors represents a fundamental failure of professional character.

    Credibility Management: A spokesperson’s primary asset is credibility. Once lost, it cannot be easily restored. Mwaura’s cavalier approach to factual accuracy has severely compromised his ability to serve effectively in his role.

    The institutional damage

    The implications of this communication failure extend far beyond Mwaura’s personal competence. Government credibility operates on the principle that official statements reflect verified positions. When that principle is violated as dramatically as it was this week, several damaging consequences follow:

    Citizens lose confidence in official communications, creating a information vacuum filled by speculation and rumor. Policy implementation becomes more difficult when the public questions the reliability of government pronouncements. International observers note the inconsistency and factor it into their assessments of governmental stability and competence.

    Perhaps most concerning, such failures normalize incompetence, creating an environment where substandard performance becomes acceptable. This sets a dangerous precedent that undermines professional standards across the entire government communication apparatus.

    The solution to this communication crisis requires both immediate action and systemic reform. Mwaura’s position as government spokesperson has become untenable.

    His credibility is so severely compromised that his continued tenure damages the administration’s ability to communicate effectively with the public.

    However, replacing Mwaura alone is insufficient. This incident reveals deeper problems in how government communications are managed, verified, and coordinated.

    Systematic reforms are needed to establish clear protocols for information verification, consistent messaging across government departments, and accountability mechanisms for communication failures.

    The price of incompetence

    Isaac Mwaura’s three-day communication disaster represents more than personal failure—it exemplifies the corrosive effect of accepting substandard performance in critical government roles.

    The casual relationship with facts, the contradictory messaging, and the refusal to accept responsibility all point to a professional culture that prioritizes political expediency over competent governance.

    The citizens of Kenya deserve better.

    They deserve government spokespersons who understand their role, prepare thoroughly, communicate clearly, and accept responsibility for their mistakes. They deserve officials who treat public trust as the precious commodity it is, rather than something to be squandered through careless incompetence.

    Mwaura’s tenure as government spokesperson has become a liability to effective governance.

    His continued presence in this role serves as a daily reminder that mediocrity has been normalized at the highest levels of government communication.

    The administration must decide whether it values competent governance or is content with this embarrassing standard of professional performance.

    The public is watching, and they deserve an answer that goes beyond blame-shifting and excuse-making. They deserve competence, consistency, and credibility from their government spokespersons.

    Until that standard is restored, incidents like this week’s debacle will continue to erode the foundation of public trust that effective governance requires.

    The choice is clear: maintain professional standards or accept the consequences of continued institutional deterioration.

    Isaac Mwaura’s performance this week has forced this decision.

    The administration’s response will reveal whether it is serious about competent governance or content with the continued normalization of professional incompetence.

  • OPINION: Muhoroni Sugar Lease Deal – A Robbery in Broad Daylight That Must Be Halted

    OPINION: Muhoroni Sugar Lease Deal – A Robbery in Broad Daylight That Must Be Halted

    The recent leasing of Muhoroni Sugar Company to West Valley factory represents nothing short of daylight robbery of public assets, threatening the livelihoods of thousands of farmers in the Nyando sugar belt.

    This scandalous arrangement must be cancelled immediately before irreparable damage is done to Kenya’s struggling sugar industry.

    An Inexperienced Player Handed a Crown Jewel

    How does a government entrust a 59-year-old sugar mill with significant production capacity to a company that has barely existed for two years?

    West Valley factory, owned by Ben Soi, was only commissioned in October 2023 and has a crushing capacity of merely 1,250 tonnes per day – just over half of Muhoroni’s 2,200 tonnes.

    More troubling still, West Valley operates on a tiny 21-hectare plot compared to Muhoroni’s 1,393 hectares of nucleus estate.

    It defies logic and transparently violates the government’s own tender requirements, which specified “at least five years in managing and operating a sugar factory” and “an annual turnover of Sh5 billion in three years.” West Valley meets neither criterion.

    What we’re witnessing is a classic case of crony capitalism at its worst.

    The government is absorbing billions in liabilities – salary arrears, farmer payments, and tax obligations – while handing clean-slate companies to private operators.

    In essence, the public bears the costs while connected businesspeople reap the rewards.

    The leasing structure creates regional monopolies rather than promoting competition.

    In each geographic zone, dominant players can now dictate prices to farmers on a “take it or leave it” basis.

    Without competitive pressure, farmers will inevitably face manipulated weighbridges, rock-bottom producer prices, and perpetually delayed payments.

    Look beyond the surface, and a more sinister scheme emerges.

    These lease arrangements appear designed to transfer control of valuable nucleus estates to well-connected oligarchs.

    Private millers who previously lacked nucleus estates now suddenly control vast tracts with mature cane ready for harvesting.

    Nothing in the contracts prevents these operators from transporting this “free” mature cane to their existing mills while delaying rehabilitation of the publicly-owned factories they’ve acquired.

    Worse yet, the contracts don’t prohibit sub-leasing, opening the door for valuable agricultural land to eventually end up in the hands of political elites.

    Government spokespersons trumpet billions in new investment, but the contracts tell a different story. There are no legally binding commitments with clear timelines for rehabilitation and expansion – only vague mentions of “proposed initial investment.” Without enforceable obligations, these promises are worthless.

    Perhaps most galling is that these mills have been handed to the very individuals who contributed to their downfall – competitors who systematically poached cane from public mill estates and championed the importation of cheap, substandard sugar that undermined local production.

    A Process Designed to Fail

    A transaction of this magnitude demanded experienced advisers skilled in structuring leasing deals to protect public interests.

    Instead, it was left to politicians and bureaucrats at Kilimo House, resulting in agreements that favor private interests over farmers and taxpayers.

    The consequences will be devastating. Hundreds of thousands of farmers in the Nyando sugar belt now find their future in the hands of an untested entity with no proven track record in sugar production.

    The Only Solution: Cancel the Leases

    There is only one responsible course of action: cancel these deeply flawed leases immediately.

    The sugar industry needs genuine reform that prioritizes farmer welfare, promotes fair competition, and preserves valuable public assets.

    Kenya’s sugar farmers deserve better than this blatant transfer of wealth to connected individuals. The time to act is now, before the damage becomes irreversible and our sugar industry collapses entirely under the weight of this ill-conceived privatization scheme.

  • Kenyans, It’s Time We Regulate and Tax Our Churches

    Kenyans, It’s Time We Regulate and Tax Our Churches

    By Alvin Mwangi

    In Kenya, where there are more churches per square kilometer than industries and schools, pocketing millions every week, churches must be treated as industries.

    There must be order in religion in Kenya. Do we have a sane church in Kenya or are they money making schemes? Giving unto Caesar should not be selective!

    Unregistered churches, coercion and manipulation in religious organizations must face the law. The church is not bigger than the laws of Kenya, and in this, they must shape up or shape out. The exploitative activities of religious organizations must be stopped.

    Regulating religious institutions in Kenya is a step in the right direction.

    Protecting public safety remains very important in times where the Shakahola massacre highlighted the dangers of unchecked religious extremism.

    The need to oversight the churches helps prevent radicalization, cult-like behaviour, and abuse within religious organizations.

    In the Shakahola recommendations report; where lives of Kenyans were lost and buried, regulation of religious organizations and institutions was highlighted as key.

    Lives would not have been lost in this massacre if the church was regulated.

    Some religious groups have been accused of financial exploitation, misleading followers, or engaging in harmful practices. Regulations ensure transparency in financial dealings and prevent fraudulent activities.

    If the church wants to get involved in our judiciary and government policy, then its only fair that they start paying taxes for this privilege.

    The church is not above the law, and moreover Kenya is a secular state as identified in Article 8 of our Kenyan constitution.

    The Kenyan Constitution recognizes Kenya as a secular state, meaning there is no official state religion.

    Article 8 explicitly states that there shall be no state religion, ensuring that the government does not favor or impose any particular faith. Regulation of Kenyan Religious Institutions is progress and a Step in the right direction.

    Ensuring accountability means registering and meeting ethical and religious standards.

    This prevents individuals from using religion as a cover for illegal activities.

    While Kenya upholds freedom of worship, regulations ensure that religious institutions operate responsibly and ethically.

    We need toprotect citizens while respecting religious diversity.

    Religious leaders who continue to perform fake miracles, healings and extort Kenyans should be guilty of an offense.

    Preventing religious exploitations by enforcing penalties for fraud, false miracles, and coercive practices is needed.

    The church and its commercial operations must be stopped. The churches role in governance issues has also been weakened when they continue to side with the Oppressor and not public interest.

    Transparency in religious organizations is needed.

    The churches collect so much money from its congregants and platforms.

    Even Jesus did pay taxes! In Matthew 17:24-27, there’s a story where tax collectors ask Peter if Jesus pays the temple tax.

    Jesus tells Peter to catch a fish, and inside its mouth, Peter finds a coin that covers both Jesus’ and Peter’s tax payments.

    In another instance, when asked about Roman taxes, Jesus famously said, “Give to Caesar what is Caesar’s, and to God what is God’s” (Matthew 22:15-22).

    For generations, the church regulated what women could wear to the altar, if they could divorce, ex-communicated single mothers, insisted on purity.

    Now, why are they afraid of a little regulation by government? Do they have anything to hide?

    While the church has failed to self-regulate, the government must step in and regulate them. We have seen how religious leaders continue to take advantage of gullible citizens by opening a church to get rich.

    The clergy have continued to sanitize this government, now its their turn, they must be accountable to Kenyans.

    Politicians have continued to use the church to buy and brainwash masses.

    The church has been the biggest beneficiary of money from politicians.

    Isn’t this propagating corruption by receiving its proceeds.

    This is the church in corruption. They build schools that the believers’ children cannot even afford. No subsidized services in their hospitals, they can not do business and not pay taxes for that.

    Stealing in the name of the lord must be stopped. Selling hope to the poor, money laundering and cultism like the Shakahola massacre must be stopped.

    The church has failed to do its role and turned to political scavengers.

    For Kenya to realize its full potential, we need to regulate registration and oversight of religious organizations.

    A law to streamline the religious culture in Kenya is paramount. The Re reintroduction of the religious organization bill should be brought back to parliament to be debated and adopted.

    The writer is a Young Christian based in Nairobi, Kenya

  • NEWSPAPER ATTACKS COTU’S COMPROMISED LEGACY AS RUMORS TELL OF ATWOLI’S IMMINENT OUSTER

    NEWSPAPER ATTACKS COTU’S COMPROMISED LEGACY AS RUMORS TELL OF ATWOLI’S IMMINENT OUSTER

    Fresh Plot to Remove Long-serving Union Boss Emerges as COTU Marks 60 Years

    As the Central Organisation of Trade Unions (COTU) marks its 60th anniversary this week, a scathing newspaper analysis has branded the umbrella labor body as a “compromised” institution that has strayed far from its mandate of defending workers’ rights.

    Meanwhile, rumors are intensifying about an elaborate plot to remove Secretary-General Francis Atwoli from his position in the upcoming 2026 elections.

    According to a report published in the Daily Nation titled “Solidarity sold? 60 years of COTU’s compromised legacy,” the labor organization was deliberately established in 1965 as a political tool to “contain the rise of an independent and militant workers’ front.”

    The lengthy analysis argues that founding President Jomo Kenyatta engineered COTU’s formation to ensure “industrial peace” – effectively neutralizing radical unionism that might threaten the state’s power.

    “What has followed in the last six decades has been a delicate dance between the COTU leadership and the Executive where workers’ rights have often been sacrificed at the altar of supposed national stability and economic growth,” the newspaper states.

    This criticism comes as an image circulating in media circles suggests Atwoli, who has led COTU since 2001, faces a serious challenge to his leadership.

    The report claims that “plans to unseat him in the upcoming 2026 elections are said to be in high gear,” with his potential successor allegedly working with members of Atwoli’s inner circle to orchestrate his removal.

    The plot reportedly has backing from “powerful State mandarins and disgruntled union members who are eager for new leadership.”

    Sources indicate a strategy meeting took place in Naivasha last week where several union leaders met to “finalize plans to push him out.”

    Atwoli’s Rebuttal

    In a swift response posted on social media, Atwoli dismissed the historical analysis, describing journalist John Kamau as “an exceptional writer and a repository of historical literature” whose “great understanding of history has made him blind to progress.”

    “I remain available to appraise John on the developments in the labour movement in Kenya, post 2001,” Atwoli stated, suggesting that the writer’s “perspective remains trapped in the bygone era” and fails to acknowledge COTU’s evolution during his two-decade tenure.

    The 74-year-old labor leader recently hinted at his eventual departure while suggesting that “only then will people know his importance in the position” – perhaps acknowledging awareness of the unfolding scheme.

    This comes despite COTU’s executive committee previously endorsing him for a sixth term.

    The Daily Nation article traces COTU’s history of political entanglement through successive regimes, noting how previous Secretary-Generals like Denis Akumu, Juma Boy, Justus Mulei, and Joseph Mugalla navigated complex relationships with state power.

    “Today, at Solidarity House, the echoes of a once-radical workers’ movement have all but faded. Labour Day rallies, once brimming with defiance and purpose, now suffer from poor turnout and lack the revolutionary spirit of the past,” the newspaper concludes.

    Atwoli’s tenure has been marked by his ability to maintain relationships across political divides. Most recently, after initially opposing President William Ruto during campaigns, he expressed willingness to work with the administration “to create an enabling environment for Kenyan workers.”

    Critics argue this pattern reflects COTU’s historical compromise – prioritizing institutional survival and leadership entrenchment over militant advocacy for workers’ rights.

    As the organization celebrates its diamond jubilee, questions about its independence and effectiveness continue to grow louder.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

  • Ruto, A Non-Catholic Attendance at Pope’s Funeral Exposes Govt’s Extravagance

    Ruto, A Non-Catholic Attendance at Pope’s Funeral Exposes Govt’s Extravagance

    President William Ruto’s unexpected attendance at Pope Francis’ funeral in Rome on Saturday has sparked a fresh wave of criticism, particularly after he had earlier nominated National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula to represent Kenya at the event.

    Wetangula had publicly confirmed on April 24 that he would attend the funeral on behalf of President Ruto, who had selected him for the diplomatic mission.

    After concluding a state visit to China, President Ruto surprised Kenyans by redirecting his itinerary to Rome, becoming the only African head of state to attend the funeral in person.

    Accompanied by Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and other officials, his decision raised questions about his commitment to cost-saving measures, as many Kenyans continue to struggle with the rising cost of living.

    While the Vatican extended invitations to global leaders for the funeral, the precise number of African heads of state invited remains unclear.

    Notably, President Ruto, who is not Catholic and has previously clashed with Kenyan bishops over his generous contributions to churches, was among three African Heads of State who attended in person.

    Others were Presidents Felix Tshisekedi (Democractic Republic of Congo), Brice Nguema (Gabon) and João Manuel Lourenço (Angola).

    Senior officials, including vice presidents, ministers, and parliamentary leaders, represented the majority of other African countries.

    Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua criticized Ruto’s decision, accusing him of a “lack of trust” in others and contributing to wasteful spending of public funds.

    “The President doesn’t trust anybody to handle anything. There was no reason for him to go personally, especially after appointing the Speaker,” Gachagua said during an interview on Weru TV on Sunday.

    Since taking office in September 2022, Ruto has embarked on an extensive travel schedule, raising questions about the frequency of his international trips and their cost amid his government’s promises of fiscal responsibility.

    President Ruto was scheduled to return to the country on Monday after completing his State Visit to China and the unexpected trip to Rome.

  • Is Raila Using Orengo’s Defiance to Send Ruto a Wake-Up Call?

    Is Raila Using Orengo’s Defiance to Send Ruto a Wake-Up Call?

    Let’s talk about the drama unfolding in Kenya’s political scene. Siaya Governor James Orengo’s bold jabs at President William Ruto have tongues wagging, and I can’t help but wonder: is Raila Odinga, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader, pulling the strings behind this defiance?

    The way Orengo and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna went after Ruto at a recent funeral, with Raila sitting right there, feels like more than just a coincidence.

    It got me thinking that Raila’s sending a loud and clear message to Ruto: don’t take ODM’s alliance for granted.

    Rewind to March 7, 2025, when Raila and Ruto signed a fancy agreement at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre, promising to bury old rivalries and work together for Kenya’s good.

    It was all smiles and handshakes, with talk of a “unifying vision” to tackle the country’s mess—think economic woes and the fallout from last year’s Gen Z protests. But fast forward months later, and the honeymoon’s already looking shaky.

    The real fireworks happened on April 12 at the burial of George Oduor, Raila’s longtime bodyguard, in Siaya County.

    Picture this: Ruto and Raila are both there, mourning a loyal aide. Then Orengo steps up and, instead of the usual pleasantries, lays into Ruto. “Mr President, praise and worship won’t cut it,” he said. “Tell your leader the truth, or this country’s headed for trouble”.

    Not to be outdone, Sifuna piled on, slamming Ruto for not reining in his government—pointing to the tear-gassing of kids in Nakuru as a prime example of overreach.

    Ruto, clearly not amused, shot back at Sifuna, warning him to “tread carefully or face discipline” sarcastically saying he’s one of the founding members of the ODM.

    Now, here’s where it gets juicy. Raila didn’t say a word. Not during the funeral, not after.

    In Kenyan politics, where every move is planned like a chess game, that silence is deafening.

    Politicians don’t just wing it at big events like this—they huddle up beforehand, decide who says what.

    So, when Orengo and Sifuna went off on Ruto with Raila right there, it’s hard to believe it wasn’t greenlit by the man himself.

    And Raila’s never called them out for it, which feels like a nod of approval. Sifuna even said Raila told him to keep ODM’s identity strong. Coincidence? I don’t think so.

    Here’s my take: Raila’s playing a clever game. He’s got his “experts” like John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi in Ruto’s Cabinet, helping run the show.

    But he’s made it crystal clear—ODM’s not officially in this government. By letting Orengo and Sifuna throw punches, Raila’s telling Ruto, “We’re partners, not your cheerleaders.”

    It’s a way to keep ODM’s base—especially in Nyanza, where folks aren’t thrilled about cozying up to Ruto—happy while still working with the president. Classic Raila: keeping one foot in, one foot out.

    But it’s not all smooth sailing. Some in ODM aren’t buying this defiance act.

    Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda called out Orengo and Sifuna, saying their funeral remarks were out of line.

    Then there’s the Ramogi Professional Caucus, threatening to push for Orengo’s impeachment, claiming he’s sabotaging the Ruto-Raila deal.

    It’s a reminder that Raila’s walking a tightrope, trying to keep his party together while playing this high-stakes game.

    I’ve seen Raila pull this move before. Think back to his 2018 handshake with Uhuru Kenyatta.

    He’d let allies like Junet Mohammed stir the pot while he played the diplomat.

    Now, Orengo and Sifuna are the ones keeping Ruto on his toes, calling out police brutality and government missteps—issues that hit home with everyday Kenyans, especially the Gen Z crowd who shook things up last year.

    So, what’s Raila really saying to Ruto? To me, it’s a warning: don’t get too comfortable.

    This alliance is a two-way street, and ODM’s not here to just clap for you. Raila’s using his loyalists to hold Ruto accountable, making sure the promises of unity actually deliver for Kenyans.

    It’s a gutsy move, and if history’s any guide, Raila’s got his eyes on the bigger prize—staying relevant, keeping his people united, and making sure Ruto knows who’s got the upper hand.

    Ruto better listen up, because in Kenyan politics, silence can be louder than words. And right now, Raila’s quiet is speaking volumes.

    Views expressed are those of the author.

  • Echoes of War: Arrest of Playwright Malala Ill Informed

    Echoes of War: Arrest of Playwright Malala Ill Informed

    It’s impossible to find the plot of the play “Echoes of War” online. There were rehearsals, the troupe was preparing for the performance, the play was reviewed by the competition committee, and there was a court hearing regarding its content. Still: the plot of Malala’s play is nowhere to be found online.

    What is available online? Furious discussions among users about video footage of Cleophas Malala’s arrest. And now we all want to know: what’s this play about? Everyone who said the police created free publicity for “Echoes of War” was right. Very soon, the plot will either be posted somewhere or start being reprinted and passed from hand to hand, and the author will become a cult figure. Bad idea number one.

    Arresting a playwright for their work can be perceived as a violation of fundamental rights, such as freedom of speech, protected, for example, by Article 33 of the Kenyan Constitution of 2010. Do you understand? They wanted to avoid sparking new protests, so they created a new reason for protests. Bad idea number two.

    There’s already been an example of such a mistake by the authorities in Kenya. Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o, one of Kenya’s most famous writers and playwrights, was arrested in 1978 for his play “Ngaahika Ndeenda” (“I Will Marry When I Want”), co-written with Ngũgĩ wa Mĩrĩĩ. The play criticized corruption and inequality in postcolonial Kenya, leading to his arrest and imprisonment in a maximum-security prison without trial for nearly a year. The international community expressed concern, which damaged Kenya’s reputation. Unexpectedly, his works became a symbol of resistance. Bad idea number three.

    The police will likely charge Malala with incitement to violence, which is a criminal offense in Kenya. This is based on Sections 96 and 391 of the Kenyan Penal Code. Section 96 provides for a penalty of up to 5 years in prison. The Constitution protects freedom of speech, but if those words are interpreted as incitement, Malala falls outside the Constitution’s protection.

    Now, the most interesting part. The play had already been excluded from the competition in Nanyuki due to incitement. But on April 3, Judge Winfrida Okwany ruled that 50 participants must perform. In other words, the judiciary interpreted the law and determined that there was no incitement in the play. Meaning Malala is under the Constitution’s protection. Bad idea number four.

    Nevertheless, the police (the executive branch, which doesn’t interpret laws) arrest the playwright. What does this say? It speaks to a conflict between the security forces and the judiciary. Actually, this is a red flag indicating a disruption in the balance of the state system. The police disregard the judge’s ruling, undermining judicial independence. Judicial independence is protected by Article 160 of the Kenyan Constitution. If the police directly defy the courts, that’s bad idea number five.

    In 2024, President William Ruto publicly criticized the courts for “activism” and accused them of sabotaging government projects, also pointing to a trend of pressure on the judicial system. Now, no matter how the president reacts—he’ll be “to blame” for the arrest in the eyes of the public. Even if he had nothing to do with it. Though formally, Ruto could now compare himself to Trump, who also wages war against activist judges in the U.S. We’re fine with Trump, whatever nonsense he gets up to in the U.S. Just don’t touch Africa. But for a local guy to play with authoritarianism is bad idea number six.

    To avoid creating a conflict that could lead to a power crisis, the police could simply talk to Malala or charge him with something unrelated to the play. Both options are bad ideas. Inviting him so loudly for a quiet talk is unprofessional. If charges are filed, it’s fuel for political conflicts. Without all this, the play could have been forgotten by summer.

    There’s a way out: release him and delay the play’s release. There’s a more elegant way out: William Ruto personally acknowledges a misunderstanding, attends the play as a spectator, withstands the criticism, and even discusses it with the author privately, not necessarily publicly. What do you think, is such a twist in this drama possible?

    P.S. In the end, the play’s performance is set to proceed with restrictions. The girls from the troupe are being greeted like stars. The play’s author is currently under arrest and is literally two steps away from becoming a new symbol of resistance against the authorities.

    NB: Script of the Play, ‘Echoes of War’ as filed in Court. (Starts at Page 11 of the Pleading)

    [pdf-embedder url=”https://cms.kenyainsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/4TH-APRIL-BUTERE-GIRLS-COURT-DOCS.pdf” title=”4TH APRIL BUTERE GIRLS COURT DOCS”]

  • BONIFACE MWANGI: One Year Later, Why Ruto Must Go

    BONIFACE MWANGI: One Year Later, Why Ruto Must Go

    By Boniface Mwangi

    When General Ogolla was killed a year ago, Ruto faced the country and promised open and transparent investigations. A year later, nothing has happened. We’re approaching a year since the Ruto-led government killer squad murdered innocent people during the June 25th anti-finance bill protest. In a despicable attempt to justify the killings, Ruto called those who took to the streets “treasonous” before a public outcry later forced him to swallow his words, withdraw the rejected finance bill, and fire his cabinet and Inspector General of Police. Almost one year later, there’s been no justice for our murdered comrades, his arrogance is back, and the looting and oppression by his failed government continues unabated.

    Corruption, petty crime, terrorism, police brutality, and brazen land grabbing are now commonplace. Kenya is a criminal’s paradise. No wonder the police cannot release current crime statistics. Things are bad, and the police don’t even have patrol vehicles, or the few available ones have no fuel to respond to crimes.

    After the June 25, 2024 protest, a spate of abductions followed. Those abductions were coordinated by the Directorate of Criminal Investigations, the National Security Intelligence Service, and the Directorate of Military Intelligence. In a recent televised interview, Ruto admitted as much when he stated that his government had disbanded the squad inside the police force that had been abducting Kenyans. That he said this, in spite of previous denials that he had any knowledge of who was doing the abductions, speaks volumes about the duplicity of the man entrusted with protecting the lives of Kenyan citizens.

    DCI, currently headed by Mohamed Ibrahim Amin, is an organ of the National Police Service and reports to the Inspector General of Police, Douglas Kanja, who was present at the presidential rallies in Kiambu County this past week, and appeared to be engaging in politics as he addressed the crowds in his mother tongue, momentarily forgetting that his office is supposed to be independent and non-partisan. NSIS on its part is headed by former Director of Public Prosecutions, Noordin Haji, while the Military Intelligence is under Chief of Defence Forces, General Charles Kahariri.

    Now, these three men – Kanja, Noordin, and Kahariri – betrayed their constitutional mandate when they helped Ruto track, abduct, and disappear his critics following the youth-led anti-finance bill protests. It is evident that the protests severely rocked Ruto and his government, who were only voted into power with a small margin, in an election that was hugely significant because of the large number of young people who declined to vote. Ruto sees this youth bloc as an existential threat to his government because they did not give him a mandate to rule. As an educated and largely disenfranchised lot, they are also not easily controlled despite Ruto unleashing his campaign of fear and intimidation against them.

    As people who receive daily intelligence reports, the top security bosses know that no miracle can secure a second term for the man behind the killing of peaceful protesters. The “Ruto Must Go” anthem cannot be tamed or silenced. They also understand that unlike our parents who failed to pressure Kibaki to prosecute Moi and his thugs, the Gen Zs will demand justice for all the crimes committed by this regime, and those who played a role in the abductions and killings will be prosecuted.

    In light of this, Kanja, Noordin, and Kahariri are preparing the ground to help Ruto bribe, intimidate, steal, and even kill to secure a second term. The call for patriotism that they’re currently propagating is bullshit. We love our country, but we have no obligation to love our president. That’s his wife’s and children’s responsibility, even if they don’t like what they do. Ruto is desperate for validation that he’s a popularly elected president. That’s why he’s always on top of his vehicle speaking to paid crowds and looking for love and affirmation that his family and friends don’t give him. Parents should love their children enough so that they don’t spend the rest of their lives looking for love and affirmation from strangers.

    The movement is strong. However, I want to sound an alarm bell that it has been infiltrated by the State in a deliberate attempt to divide people and stir up unnecessary hate. The strategy is to deploy compromised individuals who are active on social media to try and discredit some members of the movement by claiming they were paid or are agents of the State. This tactic is not new. It’s what the UhuRuto government used against me and other activists during their 10 years of misrule. They attack the messenger so that you stop listening to the message. They try to discredit everyone the regime considers to be a threat so that Ruto can demobilize any future plans to oppose him. They are planting seeds of hate and division through spreading lies and propaganda, and the beneficiary is Ruto. Don’t fall prey to their cheap antics or engage with them. People have been thrown in jail or even murdered for saying some of the things these people are asking Kenyans to do, but they will not be touched because they are agents of the State.

    Be vigilant. Stay focused. Know your why. Educate yourself. Be very clear about what you’re fighting for. Study and understand the enemy… he is doing the same thing and has vast resources at his disposal. But do not be intimidated, and remember that we possess the real power which is protected by the supreme law of the land, our Constitution, which even Ruto must abide by. We are the ones standing on the right side of history. Stay united. Protect and support one another, especially those on the frontline of organizing and mobilizing to liberate us from the looters and oppressors. Remember they’re doing this for free. No one is paying them, and unlike the few sellouts we know, they’re still on the side of the people. Finally, l can’t fail to mention and celebrate the women in the movement. Not a single one of them has betrayed the cause. Ignore the misinformation, disinformation, and mad rants of the government moles.

    The spirit of the peaceful revolution is still very strong. Let us remember June 25th and join hands to celebrate the sacrifice of our heroes. It’s a holiday for revolutionaries.

    The writer is a Kenyan human rights activist.

    Disclaimer: The opinion expressed is solely that of the writer and does not reflect the views of Kenya Insights.

  • How the US-China Trade War Could Shape Kenya’s Future Under Ruto

    How the US-China Trade War Could Shape Kenya’s Future Under Ruto

    As the trade war between the United States and China heats up, Kenya finds itself caught in the crossfire, facing both risks and opportunities under President William Ruto’s administration.

    With President Donald Trump slapping Chinese goods with 104% tariffs as of Tuesday midnight and Beijing hitting back with its own measures, the global economy is teetering on the edge of stagflation—a toxic mix of sluggish growth and rising prices.

    For Kenya, the stakes are high, and President William Ruto government’s next moves could define its economic legacy.

    The fallout from this superpower showdown is already rippling across Africa.

    If the conflict drags on, experts warn of a global slowdown that could hammer Kenya’s exports—think tea, coffee, and flowers, which rake in $200 million annually from China alone.

    Meanwhile, Chinese goods, a staple for Kenyan consumers, are set to get pricier as tariffs bite, threatening to fuel inflation and weaken the shilling which surprisingly still stands strong at 129 against the dollar.

    With a simmering political crisis at home, Financial Bill 2025, new protests could be on the horizon if living costs soar.

    Yet, it’s not all doom and gloom. The trade war could open doors for Kenya to pivot and prosper.

    China’s $8 billion in investments over the past 15 years—funding roads, railways, and more—may dwindle, but the U.S. and Europe could step in.

    Kenya’s relatively stable market makes it an attractive alternative for Western goods, like German cars, that might lose ground in Asia.

    And with the U.S. losing access to cheap Chinese textiles, Kenya has a shot at becoming a global sewing hub, stitching clothes for American and European buyers under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

    Ruto’s administration faces a delicate balancing act. China remains a major creditor, holding a chunk of Kenya’s debt, while the U.S. offers new trade prospects.

    During his 2022 campaign, Ruto railed against Beijing’s loans, even threatening to deport Chinese workers.

    Now, pragmatism seems to be the order of the day as his administration tries to keep both giants happy. “We’ll need to be friends with everyone,” a senior official told Kenya Insights, speaking anonymously. “That’s our survival strategy.”

    There’s more on the table. As global supply chains shift, Kenya’s tech ambitions—like the Konza Technopolis project—could attract U.S. and EU investment, positioning the country as an IT hub.

    Regional trade through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could also cushion the blow, with partners like India stepping up.

    Even the Arab world and Russia might play a role: if U.S.-Russia tensions ease, Kenya could snag cheaper oil and fertilizers, a boon for its farmers.

    The World Bank projects Kenya’s economy will grow by 4.9% annually through 2027, buoyed by tech and agriculture, which accounts for a third of GDP. But success isn’t guaranteed.

    Inflation and a weaker shilling could spark unrest, testing Ruto’s leadership. Still, analysts are cautiously optimistic. “Kenya’s got a strong hand to play,” Mwangi says. “It’s about diplomacy and smart policies.”

    If Ruto pulls it off, this trade war could be a political win, boosting his image ahead of the next election.

    For now, Kenyans are watching—and hoping—the government can thread the needle between Trump’s America and Xi’s China.

  • Baringo Senate By-Election: Is Gideon Moi Mounting a Political Comeback?

    Baringo Senate By-Election: Is Gideon Moi Mounting a Political Comeback?

    By Correspondent

    For 17 years, the late Senator William Cheptumo was a towering figure in Baringo North politics. Known for his calm demeanor, grassroots approach, and a deceptively laid-back style, Cheptumo cultivated both fierce loyalty and stiff opposition in equal measure. His long reign was bolstered by a close-knit circle of allies—referred to by critics as “Navigators”—who discreetly monitored the political landscape and regularly briefed him, turning him into a masterful, if understated, political tactician.

    His unexpected triumph in 2007 over State House insider John Lokorio shocked many. Lokorio, a seasoned bureaucrat with ties to former President Daniel Moi, was vanquished by a relatively unknown advocate—Cheptumo—who rode the ODM wave that swept through the Kalenjin Rift Valley at the time.

    Fast forward to 2022, Cheptumo once again faced a formidable opponent: Senator Gideon Moi, the last-born son of Kenya’s second President. The face-off, seen as a battle between David and Goliath, ended with Cheptumo’s victory, marking the first major dent in the Moi dynasty’s long-held grip on Baringo. It was a strategic win for President William Ruto, who had long sought to uproot the Moi stronghold in the Rift Valley.

    In 2017, then-Cabinet Secretary Simon Chelugui attempted to unseat Senator Moi with a well-funded, helicopter-powered campaign, only to fall short. He was later appointed to the Cabinet—an office he lost in 2024 following the Gen Z-led protests that forced a political shake-up.

    THE ENDORSEMENT THAT NEVER WAS

    At Senator Cheptumo’s funeral in Bartabwa on March 1, President Ruto was in attendance, but it was retired Bishop Zacharia Chirchir who stole the moment. His warning to the Cheptumo family not to be coerced into fronting a relative for the seat hinted at political tensions simmering beneath the surface. Expectations of an official endorsement from UDA’s top brass were met with silence.

    With the nomination of Wakili Hannah Wendot Cheptumo into the executive as the Cabinet Secretary for Gender, Culture, the Arts, and Heritage, it is clear that the family of the late Senator is now out of the equation.

    Now, barely two months after the Senator’s passing, the big question looms: Who will be Baringo’s next Senator?

    A COUNTY THAT MATTERS

    Baringo County, the birthplace of Kenya’s second and longest-serving President, remains a symbolic epicenter of Kenyan politics. Its political muscle was evident during the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) referendum, when it became the first county to reject the proposal—igniting a nationwide political showdown.

    The upcoming by-election could serve as a “mock general election” ahead of 2027. With this in mind, many believe President Ruto—also UDA party leader—will move strategically to retain the seat and avoid a KANU resurgence.

    THE RETURN OF GIDEON MOI?

    Speculation is rife that KANU Chairman Gideon Moi may be eyeing a comeback. His recent appearance at the funeral of former Baringo North MP Willy Kamuren in Kabartonjo sparked excitement. The crowd welcomed him warmly, breaking into applause as his chopper landed. In his carefully worded speech, Moi dismissed reconciliation with the Kenya Kwanza regime but extended an olive branch to the people of Baringo—earning thunderous applause.

    With rising discontent in the county over broken promises by the current government—including stalled road projects like Karandi-Mochongoi-Marigat and Kasoyo-Seretunin-Kampi Samaki—Moi’s candidacy could become a powerful protest vote.

    However, some believe Moi may not risk a direct clash with President Ruto at this juncture, choosing instead to bide his time for a more favorable 2027 landscape.

    RESURGENCE OF CHELUGUI

    Enter former Cabinet Secretary Simon Chelugui, recently ejected from government following the Gen Z-led protests that brought down the entire Cabinet in July 2024.

    Now, Chelugui is said to be recalibrating—and eyeing the Baringo Senate seat as his re-entry point. Quietly but determinedly, he is building a narrative: that Baringo’s people are tired of externally imposed leaders. His messaging resonates with voters wary of being used as pawns in larger power struggles.

    Sources close to Chelugui suggest he’s not just running for the Senate seat—he’s trying to craft a third political force in Rift Valley politics. A middle ground between the Moi old guard and Ruto’s UDA juggernaut, aimed at placing himself squarely on the negotiation table ahead of the 2027 and even 2032 succession dynamics.

    NEW PLAYERS, OLD GAMES

    So far, two candidates have openly declared their interest, pending conclusion of IEBC constitution process..

    One of them, Wycliffe Kipsang Tobole—a Kiswahili teacher at Sacho High School—has been on an aggressive campaign trail. A youthful orator with student leadership roots at Kenyatta University, Tobole has stirred curiosity by switching from a mini-SUV to a Land Cruiser Prado, complete with a bodyguard. Whispers suggest possible political backers.

    Kericho Senator and Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot is believed to be fronting Dan Kiptoo, a UDA party official from Baringo Central based in Nairobi. Interior CS Kipchumba Murkomen is also said to be keenly watching the race, and any endorsement from his camp could significantly tip the scales.

    Meanwhile, Baringo MCAs are scrambling to regroup after their attempt to front County Speaker Vincent Kemboi. However, sources intimate that the Speaker, aware of the stakes, rejected. The 45-member assembly is now back to the drawing board, shopping for a viable candidate.

    THE SHADOW OF THE STATE

    Nominated MP Bishop Jackson Kosgei, who previously contested the Senate seat in 2013 and 2022, is another name being floated. A close ally of the President, he served as Chair of the Kenya Film Classification Board in 2017 and maintains strong ties within the UDA ranks.

    Other aspirants eyeing the UDA ticket include: Isaiah Kirukmet (former NHIF Manager), Silas Tochim (Director, Tourism Fund), Emmanuel Ngetuny (former Eldama Ravine MP aspirant), David Kipruto (Lawyer), Vincent Chemitei, and Felix Chelaite (Kenyan based in Australia).

    THE FORECAST

    The upcoming by-election in Baringo is more than just a political contest—it is a referendum on loyalty, legacy, and leadership. Whether Gideon Moi makes a political comeback or the UDA machinery consolidates its gains, one thing is certain: Baringo’s Senate seat is now a chessboard where the stakes go beyond the county lines.