Category: Opinion

On Friday night the NASA tallying center housed at Sifa Towers in Nairobi was raided. The government would quickly come out to dismiss the news as fake saying no such an attack has happened in what has now become a clear crisis management plot.

On Saturday, Siaya Senator James Orengo alleged that police officers led by a chief inspector staged the raid at the NASA presidential tallying center in Nairobi’s Westlands in which they destroyed equipment and carried away computers. During a rally at Uhuru Park, Nairobi yesterday, Orengo named five police officers who he said were among the 15 who allegedly raided the tallying center.

The Raila Odinga-led Opposition said two IT experts, an American and a Canadian, who were helping NASA in setting up the tallying center, were picked from their apartment in Westlands and taken into custody while two Ghanaians, who were set to join them were stopped at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport and sent back home.

The American has been identified as John Aristotle Philip while NASA gave one name of the Canadian as Andrea. The Ghanaians were not identified.

Moments after NASA spoke about the raid and the deportation of experts, the American embassy in Nairobi confirmed that indeed Philip had since departed the country.

“We are in touch with the Kenyan government and with one American and one Canadian detained on August 4. They are safe and departing Kenya,” said the US embassy in a statement.

Guards at the premises said about 20 hooded gunmen armed with rifles and pistols attacked the premises near General Mathenge Drive, Nairobi, and carted away dozens of computers and other valuables.

The center is located in a private house and had been set up ready to tally election results from all the 290 constituencies.

The guards said the gang raided at 8 pm and took almost an hour to complete their mission. They broke down and carried away surveillance cameras, desktop computers, computer servers, iPads, and laptops.

The U.S.-based company Aristotle Inc that works on campaign data confirmed that its CEO had been detained in Kenya and faces deportation after working on the opposition’s campaign ahead of Tuesday’s tightly contested presidential election. John Aristotle Phillips, an American, and Canadian staffer Andreas Katsouris were detained Friday night and face were deported later Saturday. The two men were assisting opposition candidate Raila Odinga with issues including strategy and data analysis and had chosen to get involved in the Kenyan election because they thought it had the potential for irregularities.

“We pick our international campaigns very carefully,” Travis a representative of Aristotle Inc told AP “Odinga was a candidate they really believed in.” The embassy said Saturday on Twitter that U.S. and Canadian officials have been in touch with their detained citizens as well as the Kenyan government.

James Orengo said on Saturday that the two foreigners were taken from their homes on Friday. He says the detentions occurred at around the same time that armed and masked police raided an opposition vote counting center, intimidating workers and seizing equipment.

The two Ghanaian citizens who were blocked from entering the country were part of the indomitable strategists who consulted and delivered the presidency to Nana Akufo-Addo in Ghana after unsuccessful attempts. Their experience and expertise has added value to the NASA campaigns and specifically on preventing voter rigging. The two are said to be sharp data analysts.

From the raid to the deportation of data analysts working for NASA simply tells the motive to disrupt and ensure NASA’s results tallying and verification is either dead or compromised. This shouldn’t be an issue if the commitment is to have a credible election. The uncivilized raids and deportations shows the sabotage commitment to ensure NASA doesn’t run a successful parallel tallying. NASA had threatened to announce their own results should IEBC attempt to play any monkey business.

Ideally, parallel tallying shouldn’t be much of a worry if the voting system runs on honesty. As for the deported, in this highly technological world with video call a and conferencing isn’t it a shot to own leg when NASA can in a click converse with the deported experts and if anything, they can instal their own virtual centre from anywhere in the world. It’s also unclear as to why the NASA experts were targeted yet Jubilee campaign is run by foreigners including Cambridge Analytica who’ve developed the hate campaigns and heavy online infiltration.

Uncomfortable, an unusual discussion has been going on at the heights of this hotly contested election; involvement of the army in the election. The opposition NASA has consistently insisted that the regime is determined a d planning to use the military in rigging the August 8th poll. They went as far as leaking a military plan document which was confirmed by the army spokesman Col. Joseph Owuoth but in an abrupt turn, Department of Defence scraped the document as a fake.

There have been rumors of possible divisions in the army more specifically on the political perspective. Tribalism in Kenya is a killer disease, in the security plan document leaked by NASA, it was not shocking that tribe and regime friendliness was a cut off line in the choice of soldiers to be used in the exercise. The leaking of military information on involvement in the election has been read as a possible division in the hierarchy with the disgruntled leaking information to the opposition. However, this is debatable as there are also possibilities of deliberate leaks by owners.

Being an apolitical outfit, it is mere speculation to tell the affiliation and really unnecessary but nature of politics pushes us. In Gambia recently, the army turned against the incumbent Jammeh, they joined public in his ouster. The unpredictability of The Army’s perhaps what gets it going. Kenya has a respected force regionally and it would be disappointing to see them taking individual rights ahead of the public whom they have obligation to protect.

During the presidential debate that President Uhuru boycotted, Raila touched on a sensitive issue that gave hope to junior officers in the army. Raila said removing Kenyan soldiers from Somalia is a priority should ascend to office. If there’s any clear division in the army then it must be in the stay in Somalia. Junior officers are reportedly suffering the year at the expense of a few senior individuals who gain in illicit trade. Charcoal, sugar smuggling are illegal businesses senior officers are engaged in as reported widely in several reports. Given accountability shield put on the army, questions are never asked and those who dare dig deeper risks being enemies of the state. The soldiers would rather come back home and protect the border but would the seniors allow that?

One of the questions that probably would’ve kept President Uhuru from attending the debate is the El Adde run down by the Al Shabaab. Up to date, the government has never given exact numbers of soldiers killed leave alone the secretive and unceremoniously conducted burial of the killed soldiers. This is a question of posed, the president would’ve swallowed his tongue. Such occasions naturally demoralize the soldiers who put their lives in line only to be subjected to alike treatment in their death.

Several complaints have also been flying around on the standards of the military equipment more particularly the recently blowing up APCs, no detectors to avoid being hit by landmines. While Kenya bought new warfare from the states, KDF still relies on US drones to launch attacks. Even with the promise of modernizing the military, missing a drone is a shame. These soldiers need state of the art equipment and better working conditions including moralizing pay pack. Talking of better pay, the soldiers had been promised an increase but things seemed to have taken on gold water following the consistent attack on the army and leaking of information by NASA.

The military has confirmed precautionary measures in their plans for security during the election and it is no longer a secret that officers drawn from different camps getting training on how to handle the election. It puzzles why special forces would be pulled from places like Boni forest in Lamu where Al Shabaab is causing mayhem for the election training.

“The police look more prepared for the election than IEBC” a friend jokingly told me that leaving me struggling to grasp the essence. In Africa not only Kenya, elections are not just a democratic exercise but a horror period as it has become synonymous with war. The government will flex its muscles strategically revealing their armory, fierce cops ready to pounce on demonstrators. A whole set of intimidating theatrics. Media in the other end especially the western even though local media equally infected, will create a hot narrative of possible violence. “We’re not here to cover your elections” a foreign journalist is quoted during the 2013 contested poll that luckily didn’t end dirty as the previous.

History doesn’t help either. While 2007 stands out as the country’s worst electoral year, the truth is that we have seldom had a peaceful election in this country since the advent of multi-partyism in 1991. Like clockwork, in 1992 and 1997, there was violence. In 2002, 350 deaths were reported within two months. The 2007 election went down in history as the worst yet. Pockets of violence and deaths were reported even in the largely peaceful 2013 elections.

Every election comes with its new set of a headache. Presidential elections given the heavily ethnicized country has been the breeding pot for violence. This is a do or dies contest reason it is often the biggest headache. Electoral malpractice has been the core root of all the violence in past electoral history. Agents of change have never gone to sleep and several legislations have been made to minimize loopholes of stealing elections including constituting a fresh electoral body.

During the 2007 election that would erupt into the worst violence in history, the then election board chairman Samuel Kivuitu was a man under siege and his decision to declare Kibaki as president in a clearly pressurized environment, is a decision he probably died regretting. On several occasions when asked, Kivuitu reiterated that he didn’t know exactly who won between Raila and Uhuru. Those are words you wouldn’t want to hear from someone who was to be working independently and announce verified results. It showed how much he was compromised with powerful forces and coerced into announcing cooked results. Many would put the curse of murdered Kenyans on his head for that announcement that triggered nationwide protests.

Kivuitu’s successor Isaak Hassan who was the first to chair an integrated a d independent electoral body IEBC following amendments to have a credible electoral body didn’t escape the wrath a d curse of the office either. In a tightly contested race that was seen to be going into a runoff but given to Uhuru, Hassan was accused of manipulating figures in favor of Jubilee. An electronic voting system that was made to avoid ghost voting was deliberately failed giving way to electoral fraud. IEBC was also accused of playing into Jubilee ball therein shared same servers in which a bug was injected into the system to manipulate numbers in Uhuru’s favor.

Ideally, it really doesn’t matter most of the times who wins but how they win. This is why the integrity and credibility of the electoral process are paramount and the most bankable guarantee of peace. IEBC generally enjoys a dangerously low rated public confidence. The body is perceived as partisan and without integrity. This is a disastrous set of mind going into an election fixed with. On the other hand, IEBC has done too little or nothing to redeem their image and attempt to win the public trust. Hopes of Kenyans are on IEBC and the prayer is for a successful run of the system which by the way is the only remaining string of trust on IEBC. The individual figures in the IEBC are jinxed.

The assassination of the ICT Boss Chris Msando has done more damage to the already damaged IEBC. Here was a man running a sophisticated election system; his public assurances that the integrated system was hacker proof and that all will go untampered with gave a new life and hope in the system. Being a major role player in the most crucial electronic voting system, the murder of Chris has generally been viewed as a direct sabotage on the system. IEBC might put up a strong face and give assurances that the system will work well in Msando absence but I can assure you his role especially in restoring public trust won’t go unnoticed. His death is a blow to public trust something IEBC needed most.

IEBC Chairman Chebukati is the man of the moment, recovering from the trauma of death of a senior colleague in a murder that was also meant to send chilling threats to the rest of IEBC officials, Wafula had the obligation of delivering a successful election and announcing credible and verifiable results or play the tunes of power players. The power elite or the inner state are ruthless and can go to any heights to retain power. Here’s the biggest headache Chebukati has to deal with. The state, inner state, the opposition and entire world have their eyes on this man. With different interests, they both want to achieve. But I don’t think Chebukati should be spoiled for choices while he has the most advisable obligation of delivering a free, fair election.

In the next few days Mr. Chairman, things will get chaotic, you’ll get calls, you’ll get summons, you’ll get visitors you might even in worst cases get kidnapped, you’ll get credible threats on yourself and family. These aren’t just here mentions, you don’t take history lightly. You learn and take precautions. I want to believe that before you applied for the job and took the oath, you were fully aware of the nightmare of a job you were getting into now you have no otherwise but to deliver. Let a few criminal minded individuals who would want to use you in bungling the election loathe you for disappointing but the public cheer you for giving a credible election. History will be kind to you. Listen to nobody but your conscience. Pray to God to guide you. Chebukati you’re literally holding the future of over 40 million Kenyans in your hands. Pray that may God give you the courage and wisdom to deliver a historic election that is credible. With the low public trust on IEBC, I can only wish you the best and all system works as stipulated. But oh boy, I wouldn’t wanna be you, you have the worst job in Kenya. Curses or praises awaits you.

For Ike Ochiango, who sells long-life milk to informal traders in Nairobi’s sprawling Kibera slum, Kenya’s Aug. 8 presidential election is bad for business. “People are not buying,” says the 26-year-old, as he takes a break from pulling his makeshift handcart laden with cartons along a rutted dirt road in the traffic-choked capital. “They are afraid of violence and that their shops will be looted.”

The fear is well-founded: Assassinations, intimidation, and gerrymandering have marred previous elections in the East African nation. The memory of an anarchic 2007 vote, and an ensuing killing spree in which at least 1,100 people died, is fresh in the minds of many Kenyans. This year’s campaign has also been fraught, with preparations behind schedule, the opposition up in arms over balloting procedures, and numerous clashes between rival political parties and the police.

The prospect of renewed political turmoil poses further risks to an economy that was one of Africa’s top performers over the past decade, when growth averaged 5.2 percent a year. Now Kenya is contending with a crippling drought and rising government debt. Growth plummeted in the aftermath of the disputed election, to 1.7 percent in 2008 from 7.1 percent the year before. The government expects the economy to grow 5.5 percent in 2017.

About 180,000 personnel from the police, the electoral commission, and other government agencies have been deployed to secure the vote, and the European Union, African Union, and the Commonwealth have sent observers. Robert Besseling, the Johannesburg-based executive director of EXX Africa Ltd., a political risk advisory firm, warns that large parts of the country remain highly susceptible to electoral mischief-making. “There remains ample scope for vote-rigging,” he says. “Allegations of electoral fraud are the primary trigger for outbreaks of violence. Partisan supporters and militia groups will mobilize to protect their ethnic and political interests.” Kenya is home to more than three dozen ethnic groups.

On July 31 the electoral commission said the body of Chris Msando, one of its technology managers, who’d been missing for three days, had been found at a Nairobi mortuary. Msando was one of a few people at the commission who knew the whereabouts of its computer servers, the Nairobi-based Star reported.
About 19.6 million people have registered to participate in the election of a president, a deputy, 47 senators, and 290 members of the lower house. (Kenya’s senate has 67 seats, but only 47 are elected; the balance are nominated to give greater representation to women, youth, and the disabled.) A candidate must win a majority of the popular vote and at least a quarter of ballots cast in more than half of the nation’s 47 counties to win the presidency, failing which a runoff must be held within 30 days.
While eight hopefuls have entered the race, opinion polls show only the incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta, 55, and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, 72, have a realistic chance of winning. A July poll by Ipsos Kenya showed Kenyatta with 47 percent support and Odinga with 43 percent. Emma Gordon, an analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, a U.K.-based risk advisory firm, gives Kenyatta an even chance of a first-round victory but cautions that the race is too close to accurately call.

The contest is a rematch of one held five years ago that Kenyatta won in the first round by the narrowest of margins. Odinga cried foul, but the Supreme Court rejected his allegations of vote-rigging. This time, Odinga has the backing of five of the main opposition parties, which have united under the banner of the National Super Alliance to try to unseat Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party.
Kenyatta, the son of Kenya’s founding father and first president, has pledged to boost investment in infrastructure, expand access to health care and education, and create an additional 1.3 million jobs a year.

Odinga, for his part, says he will crack down on corruption, revitalize industry, and cut the fiscal deficit to less than 3 percent of gross domestic product. The budget gap stands at 10.2 percent, and the government debt-to-GDP ratio has ballooned to more than 50 percent, from less than 40 percent eight years ago, as Kenyatta’s administration raised borrowing to fund it. The next administration will have to curtail debt if Kenya is to retain its status as one of Africa’s most-favored investment destinations, according to John Ashbourne, Africa economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “Kenya certainly does not look as promising as it did a few years ago,” he says. “If debt levels continue to rise, then Kenya could get into trouble relatively quickly. There is an additional risk, in that we expect that Kenya’s economy will slow in 2017, so revenue will probably be below target.”

Corruption, a lack of jobs, and rising grain prices resulting from the worst drought in three decades are more pressing concerns for the electorate, Ipsos surveys show. Inflation is running at a five-year high, and the cost of milled corn, a staple food known as unga in Kenya, has soared more than 50 percent over the past year. Almost half the population of 47 million survives on less than $2 a day. The government warns that more than 3 million people are at risk of going hungry.

While Kenya’s economic challenges may sway some votes and induce a higher turnout in opposition strongholds, politicians’ personalities and ethnic loyalties will be more decisive factors if past elections are anything to go by. Kenyatta can count on the support of his fellow Kikuyu, the largest of more than 40 ethnic groups; his running mate, William Ruto, should help him secure backing from the fourth-largest group, the Kalenjin. Odinga, an ethnic Luo, has strong support among the country’s third-biggest group and is banking on the wide diversity of his coalition’s other leaders to draw other voters.

With more than half of registered voters below the age of 35, another key to the outcome will be whether political parties can persuade young people to participate, says Ndung’u Wainaina, executive director of the International Center for Policy and Conflict in Nairobi.

Abdul Azizi, 27, is unemployed and doesn’t see the benefits of voting. “All the politicians are the same,” he says. “They are rich. We are struggling to get half a kilogram of unga. We are dying poor, like dogs. Life is going to be hard after elections. Nothing will change.”

BOTTOM LINE – Because of ethnic politics, President Uhuru Kenyatta has a good shot at capturing another term even though the price of food staples has skyrocketed and public debt has soared.

NB: Original article appeared on Bloomberg. Opinions are not Kenya Insights’ but the author’s. 

In politics, perception is everything and facts don’t necessarily change people’s minds, for this reason, intelligent politicians put their all in propaganda merchandise. In ten days Kenyans will be going to the voting booth in what is a tightly contested election. Recent polls don’t predict a clear winner between Raila and Uhuru. Experts are predicting a run off which both sides are trying to escape by all means for a first round win.

The human mind is such that it can be manipulated and politicians know a brainwashed voter is the best tool of the trade that’s why you’ll listen to a supporter making some bizarre accusations against an opponent that leaves you stunned. Kenya in 2017 has witnessed perhaps the most complex psychologically weaponised campaign in recent history. But not many feel it, a matter of fact they’re not supposed to believe it, so the strategist keep releasing toxins consumed unknowingly.

Just to give the levels of an active psychological warfare in politics, in 2013; Jubilee strategists developed ideally three best weapons that did not only ensure a win for Jubilee but provided a smooth power transition. First, there was the tyranny of number hypothesis developed by a now disgraced vlogger Mutahi Ngunyi, with numbers manipulation, Kenyans were mentally prepared that a Jubilee win was inevitable given high numbers of votes in Jubilee regions, experts have argued this gave a safe leeway to manipulate votes in favor.

Secondly, there was the ICC train where Uhuru and Ruto played victims of Western manipulation, to their voters they were potential martyrs being crucified in outside country with blessings of Raila whom they sold as the Mzungu puppet. While it is entirely untrue because the two ended up in ICC following investigations by various agencies, the supporters bought this lie; it gave them sympathy and revolt vote, turnout was exemplary in Rift Valley and Central. To them, this wasn’t just an election but a rescue mission for their sons. Now that’s a successful psychological missile mission.

Lastly, ‘peace’ campaigns were heightened, this was a simple, easily swallowed strategy to lull the expected charged reactions. People were told to embrace peace despite anything. The courts, IEBC ran peace slogan campaigns you remember the accept and move on. Typically, oppressive regimes will use this to get away with any malpractice. Minds are tuned to believe that questioning anything in the process amounts to being violent. The peace they use to buy silence. Silence doesn’t equate to peace but to them that doesn’t matter.

Looking at 2017, a similar scenario is playing. There has been a single narrative of possible violence. Many people have been asking me this question as to whether there will be violence and if so then who would be behind the violence. My answer has always been simple, look around, who stands to benefit more from a possible electoral violence? Who’s the loudest on the violence warnings as the tongue only speaks that what the mind knows? Lastly, is the election predetermined that we already know the winner and expected reactions? If there’s anything that bothers me is as to why security agencies preempt violence probably from real or imagined intelligence and do nothing to prevent rather waiting to repel. If we’re looking at organized and coordinated violence, then the intelligence capture would by now have the key perpetrators under lock.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga has perhaps been worst hit with character assassination campaigns which have strategically been launched to paint him in the public picture as a perennial loser, this was the argument also used by IEBC during the petition to discredit CORD, arguable narrative but always a defensive track for his opponent. Raila has been painted as a violent character. If you’re keen on social media campaigns, you must have come across dedicated pages churning hate material portraying Raila in the violent light.

Jubilee politicians lead by the principals have been echoing the Cambridge Analytica’s online hate campaigns calling the opposition leader a violent man who doesn’t love peace. You’d be lucky to get an instance the accused has advocated for violence should you make a challenge. If you look at the pattern of this well-coordinated campaign, you see that violence has been preempted and a decoy owner planted. In the public and international community’s face, Raila has relentlessly been smeared and walking around as the man of the violence so should it erupt then we know where the fingers will be pointing.

Fear of violence has seen massive relocation for the perceived hotspots named by the police; it’s laughable when they’re now threatening to arrest those fleeing for causing anxiety yet their announcement did. We’re seeing police officers displaying anti riot weapons in opposition zones; they’re even having open air combat training on dealing with rioters. This is aimed at nothing but scares mongering.

We have made elections in Kenya a dangerous game. Fear mongering and displacement of voters is also a strategy. As of now, buses to Western Kenya are fully booked till 8/8, flights out of Nairobi sold out. Who’ll benefit from a possible violence post 8/8? Why are we having highest security deployment in opposition areas? The only answer could be a Jubilee win is written and protests expected. This brings us to the question, how free is the election of the winner is already known, and why are a looking at the violent reaction of the process and win will be fair? Read the pattern, answer questions and you’ll have the owner of this violence. Keep in mind that political violence are never spontaneous as you look for the owner.

The battle for the North Mugirango constituency seat is turning into a Jubilee Party versus National Super Alliance (NASA) contest. The contest between the two leading coalitions is shaping up even as fringe parties try to steal the show.

The incumbent, MP Charles Geni (Makuti) of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party – a NASA affiliate, is clinging to the seat he has held for the last four years. But County Assembly Speaker Joash Nyamoko of Jubilee Party and nine others are proving to be his biggest nightmare as he seeks re-election.

TIFA County Polls released recently, made it white clear to illusionist and cat-walking North Mugirango Members of Parliament aspirants who are trying to unseat the ODM candidate and who is the current Member of Parliament Charles Mong’are Geni. The parliamentary seat has attracted a record of 13 aspirants making it a center of focus.

Through results released, a survey and door-to-door interview was conducted where 2000 respondents were engaged across various wards in an equilibrium manner and priority in the Constituency, MP Charles Mongare Geni who is the bigwig on ODM ticket was in the lead with 42%, coming second was County Assembly Speaker Joash Nyamoko Nyamache on Jubilee Party ticket with 21%,former Member of Parliament for the constituency Wilfred Ombui Moriasi with 11%,Johnstone Obike Ndege with 5%.

Some of the questionnaires that made Hon.Charles Mongare Geni being the most preferred candidate was rated higher given the People’s belief in his development track record-80%, accountability, response and Relationship with his people-70%, party advantage his being ODM Party member-80%. Nyamira country is a NASA stronghold giving the incumbent an upper hand and his relentless support of Raila candidacy has also boosted his ratings.

Joash Nyamoko, the Jubilee Party candidate is also combing the aren’t leaving anything into chances despite obstacles in selling his policies given his unpopular party of choice and scandals that rocked him in the county assembly are haunting him as well. He’s accused of presiding over multi million scandalous deals.

Among the 13 candidates who are vying for the seat only 4 can manage to influence at least 5% of North Mugirango residents Votes.’Others’ languishing at the bottom seem to be making their way through to game plan 2022. With 6% undecided the gains could favor Charles whom the locals dance applauds his development record which is the determinant factor.

The race is simply a rematch of 2013 where Geni beat his then and now closest rival Joash in a widened win. The voting dynamics have remained the same and little is expected to change giving the incumbent a clear heads up.

Numbers are in and an estimated number of 9Million Kenyans we’re tuned in for the grand royale battle for the two leading contenders in the presidential race but as Uhuru boycotted the show, Raila was presented with a lifetime opportunity. Free 90mins media coverage across all mainstream media spaces with close to the 9M audience. Odinga took the chance to do the right thing, convince Kenyans why he’s best suited for the job.

His show up gesture was well received by many who took it as a sign of humility, true leadership, concerned leader and respectful to the larger Kenyan masses who felt privileged to hear out his policies. Uhuru on the other end was receiving and continues to receive harsh criticism from his supporters and none. The president skipped the debate in what is clearly strategy plan from his advisers and instead hosted Samburu in the statehouse.

Being a closely contested race where the winner is too risky to bet on given latest opinion polls that put Uhuru and Raila on a neck to neck position, the debate presented an opportune platform to charm the undecided voters who average 6-8%. To Kenyans who’d made up their minds in whom to vote for, the debate was nothing but entertainment value but for the undecided, it was a decision-making moment.

Having this in mind, Odinga seem to have come to the debate with the single strategy of appealing to the undecided voters who by the way would determine whether Kenya would have a 1st round winner or a run off which is predicted as inevitable by statisticians. Mr. Odinga took the 90mins to charm Kenyans in the debate which is a play of logic, but emotions and ultimate showmanship to connect with voters and sway the undecided voters.

Raila stayed away from combative politics and throughout the debate, he barely slammed his opponents instead stayed straight on his policies and visions. He also grabbed the chance to defend himself against accusations of inciting Maasai community against outsiders a misquotation that his opponents ran with, Odinga reiterated that he pledged to the Maasai community that NASA government would address poverty issues that have been the driving factor behind the selling of land at throw away prices.

On parallel tallying center, Raila cleverly didn’t dismiss rumors of NASA having a center in Tanzania but said the coalition will have a tallying center in Kenya and in the cloud. Highlights of his address were in single mothers empowerment, reducing housing cost and cost of living. Odinga stated that single mothers will be empowered with funds to help them bring up their children. He promised to enforce rent restricting act to cushion tenants from exploitative landlords. Addressing the high cost of living he said would be his first mandate in office.

“Political debating on television is a contact sport, the ultimate theater of performance, which can determine whether a candidate wins the ultimate prize or not. Debates are important and the declaration by the Kenyan Media to host the 2017 Presidential candidates debate is a step in the right direction of our nascent democracy.” Paul Achar, a communication analyst, and consultant.

While some would argue that the debates barely impact voting pattern and that tribal blocs are untouched for Odinga and Kenyatta some scientists would argue in contrary. Kenyatta’s chances of winning in the first round have declined to 49 percent from 62 percent in May, according to Emma Gordon, senior analyst at Bath, England-based Verisk Maplecroft.

The race is “too close to call accurately” and avoiding the second ballot has become more difficult, Gordon said. The government’s “mishandling” of maize shortages may boost the opposition by swinging undecided voters away from Kenyatta, Gordon said.

Nonetheless, Kenyan politics are always full of surprises, and no prediction is really safe. Opinion polls are not an exact science, and people can change their minds about whether to vote and who to vote for, on the basis of a good or bad campaign which is why the last minute campaigns are crucial. The elections are also becoming increasingly close, as the NASA campaign picks up speed. Raila Odinga and NASA could still win the presidency, and the outcome will probably be determined by the turnout in the NASA and Jubilee strongholds. The winner of 8/8 is too early to call but based on his performance at the debate night, one thing is for sure, Odinga won many hearts and his statesmanship show, earned him respect and admiration from even the most of his enemies.

‘Having no interest in politics doesn’t mean politics will have no interest in you’

Peace is definitely what everyone is opting for but where the Peace preachers and Ambassadors led by Julie Gichuru miss the mark is failing or ignoring to address and settle Real issues that trigger Our peace dream to become a fallacy. Preaching peace is like Singing Acapella without instrumentals, not tantalizing. The price to pay for Peace with less than 2 weeks remaining to General Election is not affordable to us.

Temporary Interior CS Dr.Fred Matiang’i who holds Education and Interior Affairs dockets at the same time has to know Education docket is totally different from Interior affairs which take many portions on security matters. Perhaps this is the man I believed all along to be the most innocent man in Jubilee administration. From his last order, https://youtu.be/FvhHc52Lvns abolishing Oppositions democratic plan to protect their votes from scavengers through ‘Adopt-a-polling station’ mechanism has convinced me that best position for him is Education docket. Measures and policies he applies in Education ministry when dealing with Pupils and students have been successful and thumbs up forever but Security matters are not handled like dealing with Pupils and Students, it’s mixed-up and advanced.

Could this be the major reason why more and more procurement and importation of multi-million Shanghai made armoured personnel carriers at a time when Nurses are 50+ days on street demanding for better pay, multiple military and police recruitment is going on at this wee hours as government continues to water down Opposition plans in matters election because that mission is not a walk in the park. Now, these are the issues Peace Ambassadors ought to address not singing lullabies.

The Presidency is the site of libido and area of much concern than any other seat. 87% of Opposition NASA supporters according to latest polls released by IPSOS don’t believe the referee Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission(IEBC ) is up to the task to conduct free, fair and Credible elections. If you do the math for 87% of the 10million who sincerely are likely to vote in opposition decide enough is enough from government frustration, nothing other than turmoil is expected.

Before Matiang’i would have made ‘I know it all’ Order, he should have considered Behaviour choice of these large number of Angry and hungry jobless youths who are watching their votes being staggered with, being that mechanisms ought to be put in place to protect them are being sidelined by misuse of Power. Security department taking too much interest in IEBC decisions and schemes speaks louder words of government overshadowing its power. IEBC as an Independent body should be heard louder than any other person at this time, it must show us it’s truly loaded with its own water tank to counter and buffer the inferno by delivering Credible, Free and Fair elections.

Adopt a polling station according to my awareness is to be carried out by 450,000 Vigilant Volunteers across the 41,000 polling stations and which cost Kshs10,000/- to Adopt a single station hence Ksh410,000,000/- is being contributed through paybill no 991444.These volunteers are to help in Voter turn out to exercise by accessing voters that will fail to report and being watchdogs over malpractices.If you are a fan of Movie Series, try to access ‘Designated Survivor’ you will learn how State house matters and President Cabinets work.

We are a Nation governed by law, yes but Common sense doesn’t have to be written in the law. Thinking outside the box is not a talent if you can’t think once think twice and save this country. Recently opposition NASA foot soldier and SUNA East MP Junet Mohammed was arrested and detained in Homabay after truly making inciting ethnic based remarks, I kept my mouth shut and my keyboard off till I found substantiated evidence through a video footage

https://youtu.be/C23Dfc75qn4.

We have to call a spade a spade and not a big spoon. His detention was authentic and just. His statement that Raila will be President of Coastal region, Eastern and North Eastern, Nyanza and Western region was a message of ethnic division. He went ahead to state Raila Odinga will be Sworn in Tononoka ‘wapende wasipende’ but only when results are manipulated. With all measures above considered, we’ll be up to the task.

Written by: John Bosco

Twitter: @JohnBosco_Juma

Peace drums are getting louder as the decision-making day of 8/8 nears. One question that has been on many pro democratic minds is the motive behind peace crusades yet the country is not at war. Many have asked but none has been answered. Instead, we’ve seen the language of the incumbent’s transit from peace hullabaloo to issuing threats over illusory or predetermined violence. Margaret Kenyatta and Rachel Ruto are out in the streets trying to outshine the mobile, commercial Jivanjee Gardens preachers with peace prayer rallies. A common question that remains is as to what these people know that the rest of Kenyans don’t.

Kenya has had a history of electoral fraud over 60 years and became rife in 1992,1997 general elections that were not only marred with open fraud but accompanied with intimidation and police terror. In these horrific scenarios, peace has been the common denominator used to silence dissents. In 2002 when Kenya had enough of the 24 years of Moi’s oppressive rule, a new era was opened. For the first time in the history of Kenya since 1963, Kenya had an open and democratic election and this is attributed to the Saba Saba movement that legitimized multi party system Kenya and incorporated electoral amendments. The proponents of these privileges like James Orengo, Martin Shikiku, Raila Odinga, Paul Muite amongst the rest of Saba Saba movements, knew electoral fraud was a key instigator of post election violence that often rocked the country.

After a successful 2002 elections, Kenyans thought they had advanced and matured democratically but sadly Mwai Kibaki who was amongst the democracy fighters rolled back the country to the dark window when he bangled the elections in 2007 sending the country into its darkest moments of ethnic violence. Over 1200 people were killed and 300K+ displaced. The Democratic progress that had been made was erased in a flash, thanks to power hunger and selfishness to keep Kibaki in power in an election that was clearly won by Raila.

Democracy engineers advanced with their course and by 2013 elections, Kenya had assumed stronger electoral body IEBC which was a presumed professional body than the predecessor’s ECK and a much stronger and again presumably independent commission. Previously, electoral fraud was widely committed and the aggrieved referred to the judiciary where they’d met an already compromised bench. the executive had an immense influence on Thu judiciary. 2013 we didn’t experience an inch of chaos for the fact that Kenyans had faith in the judiciary and it’s independence but as the ruling came in favor of Jubilee despite broadcasted discrepancies, Kenyans lost faith in the two most vital democratic space institutions.

Kenyans are being bombarded with peace messages but peace is an expensive price to pay for a lasting sanity. IEBC is going into an election with shredded public trust, it beams compromised and partisan commission. The credibility of the commission which is key in results acceptance has been dwindling by the day and they have themselves to blame for own undoing. From contesting popular court rulings to back door tender awarding like the case of Al Ghurair, IEBC is like a firefighter in the middle of an inferno without water in the tank. A coordinated attack is being reigned on the judiciary to make it look as opposition aligned, this is a clever way of preparing opposition to contest a stolen election in court where 2013 petition will replay to the end.

Justice as of our national anthem; remains our shield and defender, injustice is the mother of conflict. In an election, justice is served by allowing the voices of the majority be heard. This is through an impeccable, free, fair and credible elections that will be flawless and accepted by all sides. If we preach peace yet the same time undermining the vital institutions preserving peaceable democracy as Judiciary and IEBC then we’re scratching our butts and expecting sweet smelling fingers. Strong democratic bodies and acceptance of majority voice will ensure peace.

As if writing this, 28 anti riot armored vehicles have docked at the Mombasa airport ready to reign terror in protesters in what is starting to look like a preempted and forced violence. The police have also been timely awarded a 100% pay hike to do a good job in coming days. The authorities have been vocal about the violence what do they know that the public doesn’t? The tongue only speaks what the mind knows.

A pathetically choreographed series of micro violence has been witnessed in the last 4 days from a horrible stage managed jeering of DO Ruto in Kisumu where the Jubilee duo were generally and warmly welcomed in Nyanza to a horrendous burning of campaign material of NASA in Kabarnet which was dubbed a Kisumu retaliatory attack to the very rock bottom stunning of Raila convoy in Thika by hired goons in Jubilee gears. Who takes party gears as flags; t-shirts to protest I I opponent, a clear sign of organized protests. All these as a dry run. The country is struggling with high costs of living, lack of basic commodities as Unga then you ship in expensive police armory as if Kenya is going to a war and not election. Before we forgive you for the Mitumba APCs that have been death traps for our officers being minced in terror war zones and you ship in another scandal.

The message is simple and clear, Kenya had invested a lot to have this new constitution that empowers institutions and guarantees democracy, instead of investing in anti riot armory to kill own citizens, Kenya ought to strengthen and uphold the independence of democratic institutions as the judiciary and electoral bodies. Kenya doesn’t need armory but democracy. Peace is too expensive to buy when the majority voice is curtailed. And peace out of fear not peace, that’s a time bomb. Peace must not be allowed as the muzzling focal point as electoral fraud is committed and democratic institutions burnt to ashes.

Every war is fought with different battle tactics even if the soldiers are the same, the generals close themselves in, study the war and come up with the most suitable winning strategy. Nobody goes into a war to lose, that’s why Jubilee is using all the machinery including trickery to win the votes, NASA is on the other end showing no signs of foolery, they’re knees deep in for a win.

Politics is not a cotton factory, this is not a church, this is a dirty, muddy battlefield for the strong hearted. Propaganda is a preferred weapon especially when you have much dirt on your shoulders to engage in issue-based discussions. The president pulled out of the anticipated presidential debate, perhaps he hadn’t purchased enough handkerchiefs to wipe himself should the questions on the economic and social state of the country questions come his way. On seeing his main opponent had chickened out, Raila too bowed out of the arrangement. This denied Kenyans opportunity to take the president to task over his performance and how Raila plans to do things differently.

If there’s any campaign that has left an incumbent without a concrete campaign platform then it is 2017’s. Jubilee easily slid into power in 2013 hanging on the ICC string which was not only the bonding note but core campaign agenda. The youthfulness face Uhuru and Ruto were bringing in was also an appealing vector. Fast forward to 2017, the duo has been in power, Kenyans have had a taste now the dilemma struck the strategists on what to sell. Initially, development track record was to be the main campaign agenda, a portal that struggles to get traffic was launched and major media campaign with ads running on hundreds of millions run in key media outlets. However, it hasn’t gone as planned, you wouldn’t blame the woman in the village with empty plates trying to keep her kids alive in the era of food scarcity and high inflation with development that she can’t feel. Jubilee developed the infrastructures and forgot the vital households where the development should be felt but not. The cost of living has dangerously gone up, highest in Kenya history.

Jubilee having no campaign agenda has been hanging on anything including water when they’re drowning. Raila has been their largest campaign agenda and a well choreographed fear-mongering strategies developed. While Raila phobia campaigns have been used especially on the central Kenya voters and worked before, 2017 the war went hi-tech, while the Kurias and Duales are in rallies going extreme, Jubilee hired bad ass PR company Cambridge Analytica to do the dirty job. You must have come across pages as ‘the real Raila ‘ ‘Uhuru for Us’ which have nothing but a full wedged war on the personality of Raila. They’ve gone a notch higher with fear-mongering ads that have left many shocked.

The Jubilee principals have in the recent past time on extreme combative campaign mode. The anger in their rallies has left the country wondering what could be going on. In his book ‘Surviving Political Campaigns, Politics and Politicians ‘ Robert A. Nowlan a political scientist on anger tuned politics he says, ” There are issues in National Politics that need to be explored in every presidential election. However, candidates have become less and less forthcoming with what they can bring to the most difficult job in the world. They fear being clear about where they stand on issues may annoy some segment of the electorate and cost them votes. Instead, they resort to mudslinging, character assassination and attack ads.”

In reference to empty campaign platform, it doesn’t come as a surprise that Jubilee has now resorted to deviating tactics to avoid facing the real issues facing Kenyans more specifically cost of living and unemployment, they’re now attacking everyone and anything including unfertilised eggs. Character assassination on opposition’s main candidate Raila has been steadied now just heightened. However, the strategy is not meant to win new votes, but to lay a foundation for a bigger scheme, the international community also targeted. The intent is to paint Raila stereotypically as a perennial loser such that an electoral fraud could be committed and they use the same stereotypical bait to silence him and in the same line gain international and public stamp that he is a loser.

The political psychology behind anger theory would predict that anger increases the use of generalized knowledge and reliance upon stereotypes and other heuristics. An experiment on students at the University of Massachusetts Amherst showed that people who had been primed with an anger condition relied less upon issue-concordance when choosing between candidates than those who had been primed with fear. In a separate laboratory study, subjects primed with the anger emotion were significantly less likely to seek information about a candidate and spent less time reviewing a candidate’s policy positions on the web. Now you see the connection with Jubilee strategy.

War monger, even without ring specific, Raila has been branded such, when the former PM addressed a rally in Kajiado jumping into a major crisis of land and warning the Maasais against selling their land to investors at a throwaway price because of poverty. This statement was the blessing Jubilee brigades were preying for, it was propelled into a campaign agenda how Raila was inciting communities. The sterile NCIC too jumped on the bandwagon to initiate an investigation on a non starter. By branding Raila a violence advocate and blowing up such minor incidences, the intent being should there be a dispute, this will be used against him to restrict his democratic rights as calling for mass action to vent. Having been hanging in the public and international courts as a violent man, Raila will be as cooked. Everything you see, hear, is not by chance but well-choreographed political strategies and baits.

There’s nothing like good healthy anger to make one feel better. Voters need facts in making up their minds, something to think about beyond the fearmongering absurdities, meaningless statements, and accusations that may be untrue or at least misleading, meant to inspire hatred or at least great distrust of their opponents. Talking of anger, like in the Brexit, U.S., France scenarios the greatest and most crucial anger is that I the public who feel left out and not beneficial to the system. When this group decides to make a point, they won’t be seen but will be heard. There’s a public anger.

The fear of losing power, the transition from the head of state to head I your house as a private citizen, the fear of losing influence, friends, the fear of losing state privileges would make even the Pope lose his cool. In Africa they also say, if the gods wants to destroy you, they first get you mad and on the final day, every tree in the forest is slippery to the monkey.

In less than 30 days, Kenyans will head to the ballot to elect their 5th president. While Uhuru is determined to retain his seat by hook and crook and I quote his deputy Ruto on that, opposition and NASA candidate Raila Odinga is all fired up to ensure his last bullet catapults him to the big office.

So much is going on the country from strategic terror attacks in the NEP that have led to the declaration of a state of emergency in most parts to the death of Security CS Joseph Nkaissery whose death has been it key questions but as expected the government pathologists have ruled out foul play after the autopsy. We have an IEBC that has not only lost the cause of a fair referee but left their partisanship card too open. From a fraud voter register that they’ve refused to publish regardless of law requirements to nuisance appealing and re-appealing of ballot printing tender to Al Ghurair. Makes you wonder what it is about this company that everything doesn’t move unless the tender is awarded to them, from the looks, you can bet it isn’t anything good.

Jubilee politicians have hatched a clever campaign targeting the judiciary in the past few days. The onslaught plan that was struck by the President and his deputy accusing the judiciary of colluding with NASA to derail the election. The accusations are baseless and hot air. For a time now, we’ve had a public perception of current CJ David Maraga having his allegiance to the executive. In a recent tour to his natives in Kisii, President reiterated that Maraga was a political appointee and a gift to the locals from Jubilee. Expectedly, the CJ denounced but it gave a hint of the executive influence on the judiciary. Jubilee has been having their way in parliament and even during the elections dispute referred opposition to the judiciary so the courts they trusted are overnight the devil. The whole hullabaloo is to change the public perception that executive is influencing the judiciary.

Being an election period, the judiciary is going to play a critical role as far as peace is concerned and Jubilee knows this, why they’re taking a step ahead. The strategy which also is to capture international headlines is to show the judiciary is sympathetic to the opposition and in quicker coordinated rejoinder, the CJ and law defenders come out to castigate and assure I the judicial independence. Now, what’s the catch, should there be an electoral dispute which from the body languages; inevitable, the advantaged Jubilee will urge NASA to go to the courts that have all along been advantageous to them. Having prepared the public court that judiciary is pro-opposition, Jubilee hopes the situation and pressure locally and internationally, will coerce NASA into a legal arbitration.

NASA has vowed not to take judicial pathway knowing well and with the 2013 petition that nothing will happen in their favor going on with their plan of a clean win in the ballot. So the attack on the judiciary is a bait.

The coordinated war that you’ll see legal minds in Jubilee camp come out attacking the judiciary, the party’s Sec Gen Tuju went further with Duale to ethnically profile Judge Odunga’s ties of consanguinity to James Orengo, I could not help but laugh. I remembered that Jubilee is good at one thing: Public Relations. Having discovered that they keep losing cases in court, they decided that the best way of defending themselves in the face of dwindling rigging fortunes is to intensify attacks on Nasa and the Judiciary in the public court.

With the media in their deep euro bonded pockets, they are strategically resolved to change the national discourse on pertinent issues of elections’ credibility to sideshows about the fidelity of the Judiciary and its esteemed employees. Despite people like Murkomen boasting about being legal brains and festooning their Facebook posts with all their supposed legal titles; their scarcity in our courts to task their legal brains on serious national issues of a legal nature has been palpably apparent to even a disinterested mwananchi.

They have thrived in the theater of the absurd that is political rallies and social media. Jubilee’s strategy is to hoodwink the public that the courts are favoring Nasa. In their strategy, they quote no constitution but only belabor to trace the DNA of all the judges that have made a ruling in any case involving Nasa and link them to a Nasa luminary. It’s absurd but not vain!

The other strategy is a relentless PR campaign on the date of elections and useless peace campaigns at the expense of free, fair and credible elections. Despite the fact that NASA has NEVER mentioned or shown any verifiable intention to have the elections held post-August 8th, Jubilee has amplified their misguided rallying call that they will not accept the elections to be postponed.

This is despite the fact that the Constitution is clear about the date of elections and the fact that only parliament or a referendum can change that. While at it, they have not based their claims on the Constitution. They have just regurgitated platitudes of these wild allegations in rallies and syndicated tv shows using compromised journalists and political pundits with the hope that eventually they will shape national discourse with these issues that are at best unnecessary.

But their efforts are not vain. They are diversionary tactics that deflect national discourse from pertinent issues of having a Free, Fair and Credible election. They ensure Nasa is too busy to talk about issues like a compromised voter register or ballot printers and issues like the composition of IEBC officials who will conduct the elections.

The strategy is well coordinated and it’s executed from the party leader and Jubilee candidate to the most unpopular Jubilee MCA aspirant at the ward level. Money is used to bribe journalists and political analysts to amplify the message and fire is put under the feet of the 36bloggers to overwhelm social media with these diversionary campaigns.

NASA must not fall for all these diversionary tactics excavated from a PR manual. NASA must continue piling pressure on IEBC to follow the law and ensure all loopholes of election rigging are sealed. Nasa must also stay on it’s message and remind Kenyans that Jubilee has failed in all social, political and economic spheres.

Even those on social media must pay little attention to the nonsense like that of Tuju claiming judges are related to NASA luminaries. Let us keep our eyes on the ball. Let me say what I keep saying: Never underestimate the resolve of the mafias to keep or acquire power. They will kill all of you if they have to.