Author: Agencies

A social media post by Ukraine’s Defence Ministry during its counteroffensive in September 2022 praised Starlink and thanked Musk for its role in helping the military maintain connectivity. Video via X.

Starlink is now believed to generate more than half the revenues for SpaceX, Musk’s satellite and rocket company. This June SpaceX launch in Florida sent 23 Starlink satellites into low-Earth orbit. Video via SpaceX website

Rivals are scrambling to get in on the market.

Still, Starlink has made much of its first-mover advantage. Its terminals, priced as low as a few hundred dollars for standard models, are known for being affordable and easy to use. “There is no existing system right now to replace Starlink,” said Grace Khanuja, an analyst at Novaspace, the consultancy near Paris.

Compared to the geostationary satellites historically used for communications, the sheer number of SpaceX satellites helps make Starlink less vulnerable to jamming and attacks. Its far reach makes it valuable in remote and hostile terrain – from battlefields to airspace to high seas. In Ukraine, it has facilitated activities including communications, intelligence and drone piloting.

Some Western militaries not engaged in conflict are also using the service. Britain’s armed forces, for instance, three years ago began using Starlink for “welfare purposes,” including personal communications for troops, the Ministry of Defence said in response to a freedom of information request. The ministry said it has fewer than 1,000 Starlink terminals and doesn’t employ them for sensitive military communications. Spain’s navy is also using Starlink, but only for recreation and leisure of troops, a spokesperson said.

“That will change,” said Chris Moore, a retired air vice-marshal in the British military, speaking about high-speed space-based connectivity. Moore also worked as a OneWeb executive and is now a defense industry consultant. Satellites in low-Earth orbit, he said, offer too many advantages for militaries to ignore, especially for modern developments such as drone warfare, a signature element of the Ukraine conflict.

Some leaders are leery.

Spokespersons for the Taiwanese government said it welcomes international satellite providers but that Starlink hasn’t applied for a license in Taiwan. They didn’t respond to questions about Taipei’s relationship with Musk.

In Italy, the government is evaluating whether to employ Starlink for secure communications among the government, defense and other officials. But some officials, including President Sergio Mattarella, remain unconvinced by SpaceX’s assurances that its service would be secure and free from meddling by Musk. “More than Musk’s word, we need assurances that we can’t be shut down, and especially that he can’t access the data,” said a person familiar with the views of the president, who is an influential figure with the armed forces.

Poland, a major donor to Ukraine, told Reuters it employs Starlink as well as other military and commercial satellite systems. A mix of providers, Polish officials have said, offers the most security, even if at high cost.

“In peacetime, you want the best product at the best price,” Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in response to a question from Reuters at a press conference in April. “In wartime, you want redundancy. You want security. You want duplicated systems, so that if one fails, you can still use the other.”

“THERE WAS NOT A CONNECTION”

Even before the conflict began, documents reviewed by Reuters show, SpaceX had already been in discussions with the U.S. government about providing Starlink in Ukraine. Rollout began after Russian troops crossed the border on February 24, 2022.

Two days later, Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister in Ukraine, requested Musk’s help. “We ask you to provide Ukraine with Starlink stations,” he wrote on Twitter.

Musk responded in 10 hours. “Starlink service is now active in Ukraine,” he tweeted. “More terminals en route.”

Poland was also instrumental in the early days of the war, shipping thousands of terminals to Ukraine shortly after the invasion. Warsaw this year said it has purchased about 25,000 Starlink terminals for the effort – roughly half the total now in Ukraine – and that it is paying the subscription costs to keep them connected. So far, it has spent about $89 million on Starlink for Ukraine.

The equipment has made a critical difference for Ukraine.

Day-to-day bureaucracy has also benefited. Early in the conflict, Ukraine stored state data in the cloud and relied on Starlink to access it, helping keep some government operations running. “We wouldn’t be anywhere without Starlink,” said Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain until 2023. “The whole state was preserved.”

On the battlefield, Ukraine quickly deployed Starlink to enable front-line troops to communicate with commanders. The service also allowed drone operators to transmit surveillance video streams and locate and attack Russian targets. Reuters couldn’t establish just when such attacks may have become a concern for Musk or SpaceX.

By September 2022, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive was underway. Kyiv’s forces were pushing back into territories, including Kherson, that Russia had captured. The drive threatened Russian supply lines, prompting Moscow to threaten the West, including oblique references to Starlink.

That month, in a statement to the United Nations, Russia noted the use of “elements of civilian, including commercial, infrastructure in outer space for military purposes.” It warned that “quasi-civilian infrastructure may become a legitimate target for retaliation.”

It isn’t clear whether Russia has tried to attack any Starlink facilities. Musk has said, however, that Moscow has repeatedly sought to block its connectivity. “SpaceX is spending significant resources combating Russian jamming efforts,” Musk wrote on X last year. “This is a tough problem.”

The Kremlin declined to comment on whether it has sought to interfere with Starlink. The Ministry of Defence didn’t respond to a request for comment. Starlink isn’t licensed for either civilian or military use in Russia.

Around this time, Musk engaged in weeks of backchannel conversations with senior officials in the administration of President Joe Biden, according to three former U.S. government officials and one of the people familiar with Musk’s order to stop service. During those conversations, the former White House staffer told Reuters, U.S. intelligence and security officials expressed concern that Putin could follow through on his threats. Musk, this person added, worried too, and asked U.S. officials if they knew where and how Ukraine used Starlink on the battlefield.

Soon after, he ordered the shutdown.

Reuters couldn’t ascertain the full geographic extent of the outage, but the three people familiar with the stoppage said that it covered regions that had recently been taken by Russia. Starlink coverage prior to the order, they said, had been active up to what had been Ukraine’s border with Russia before the full-scale invasion.

Taras Tymochko, a Ukrainian military signals specialist stationed in the Kherson region at the time, said an outage disrupted communications for troops, including colleagues on the front, for several hours. “If you were using Starlink to provide surveillance of the front line, you pretty much would be blind,” said Tymochko, who is now a consultant to Come Back Alive, a non-governmental organization that procures military equipment for Ukraine’s armed forces.

Maryna Tsirkun, a drone expert at Aerorozvidka, an aerial reconnaissance organization that works closely with the Ukrainian military, was also in southern Ukraine at the time. Starlink signals failed as Ukrainian troops began to push toward terrain seized by Russia, she told Reuters. “When we started to proceed there was not a connection,” she said. The outage she and colleagues experienced lasted several days.

On October 3, Musk angered Zelenskiy and other Ukrainian officials by tweeting a suggestion that locals in regions annexed by Russia vote on whether they should remain a part of Ukraine. A day later, Musk tweeted his concern about the conflict spiraling. “I still very much support Ukraine,” he tweeted, “but am convinced that massive escalation of the war will cause great harm to Ukraine and possibly the world.”

Three days later, following one media report about a Starlink outage, Musk tweeted that “what’s happening on the battlefield, that’s classified.” He added that SpaceX by the end of 2022 was on track to spend $100 million on Ukraine. Although the Polish and U.S. governments by then had begun donations of their own, the billionaire complained about the cost of the equipment and services SpaceX was providing.

SpaceX “cannot fund the existing system indefinitely,” Musk wrote in a mid-October post. The next day, in another tweet, he reversed course. “To hell with it,” he wrote, “we’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free.”

After the outage, Kyiv worked to charm Musk.

By February 2023, however, Starlink was fully functional in Ukraine, he said. “All the Starlink terminals in Ukraine work properly,” Fedorov told Ukrainska Pravda, the news site. Fedorov, who recently assumed the title of first deputy prime minister, didn’t respond to a request for comment about Ukraine’s use of Starlink in the war.

As the war has evolved, so has Ukraine’s use of Musk’s technology.

Ukrainian drone specialists and Prystaiko, the former ambassador to Britain, said some attack devices, including maritime and bomber drones, now have Starlink antennas fitted to them. The antennas, in the case of sea drones, help operators guide the devices and view video feeds to classify targets, said Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense think tank.

It’s uncertain whether such use contravenes SpaceX’s desire that Starlink not be employed for offense.

Ukraine continues to explore alternatives that could complement or back up Starlink if the service became unavailable, a senior government official told Reuters. Ukraine’s government has expressed interest in European satellite projects, European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier told Reuters. That includes GOVSATCOM, an EU project to pool satellite resources from member states and industry to provide services to governments, he said.

Privately, though, some Ukrainian officials say the existing alternatives to Starlink have limitations. “It takes time, it takes money,” the senior government official told Reuters. With Starlink, he added, “we have a working system.”

Musk himself has boasted of Starlink’s importance to Kyiv. “My Starlink system is the backbone of the Ukrainian army,” he wrote on X in March. “Their entire front line would collapse if I turned it off.”