When the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission descended on Entim Sidai Wellness Sanctuary in Karen on the afternoon of March 9, they were not breaking up a routine legal consultation. They were, according to investigators, dismantling a scheme in which a Nairobi advocate, a defrocked former judge and two associates had arrived at the home of a desperate litigant to collect a bribe worth USD 80,000 in cash. The litigant, former Cabinet Secretary Raphael Tuju, had just lost a High Court ruling that cleared the way for the seizure of his most prized Karen properties. His morning had been catastrophic. His afternoon would bring down an advocate named Kimani Wachira.
Wachira, an advocate of the High Court holding a Master of Laws from the University of Nairobi, now finds himself at the centre of one of the most sensational judicial corruption cases Kenya has produced in years. He has fought back with characteristic aggression, instructing his own lawyers to fire off a demand letter to the EACC accusing the commission of entrapment, threatening a constitutional petition, and demanding a public apology. But the facts on the ground, including the Sh1 million in cash that changed hands at the meeting, the identity of his co-accused, and the explosive confession allegedly made by former judge Joseph Mutava to EACC investigators, make his defence a remarkably difficult sell.
The EACC confirmed the arrests the same evening they occurred, stating that Wachira, Mutava, city auctioneer and Kitui politician Dr. Kennedy Ngambau Mulwa, and a businessman named Tom Awili had been taken into custody at the Integrity Centre Police Station. The commission’s statement was precise and damning: the four had allegedly demanded USD 80,000 to influence the outcome of a commercial dispute before the High Court. All four were released on a cash bail of Sh200,000 each the following morning. The matter has since been forwarded to the Director of Public Prosecutions for review.
The defence Wachira has constructed rests almost entirely on a statutory declaration sworn on March 23, 2026, by Awili, who was himself among those arrested. Awili insists that when Tuju reached into his bag at the start of the meeting and produced Sh1 million in cash, he did so without any solicitation whatsoever. According to the declaration, the money was a facilitation fee owed to Awili for introducing the lawyers to Tuju, not a bribe destined for any judicial officer. Wachira’s legal team has seized on this account, arguing that their client acted strictly within his professional duties and never sought a single shilling from anyone.
The version strains credulity on several grounds. First, Wachira’s own explanation of how he came to attend the March 9 meeting reveals a pattern of urgency that sits awkwardly with the portrait of an innocent professional going about his lawful business. According to Awili’s declaration, Tuju had been frantically calling on the morning of March 9, immediately after Justice Josephine Mongare delivered her ruling striking out his amended plaint in the Dari Limited matter as a blatant abuse of process. The meeting at Entim Sidai was convened in direct response to that ruling. The question of why Tuju, in that state of panic, would produce a million shillings in cash at a first substantive legal consultation, and place it on the table before any discussion of fees had been concluded, has not been answered by Wachira’s team.
Second, and more damaging, is the man Wachira was sharing that meeting with. Former High Court judge Joseph Mutava is not a peripheral figure in Kenya’s corruption landscape. He was removed from the bench in 2016 following a tribunal that found him guilty of gross misconduct, a finding upheld by the Supreme Court in 2019. Among the matters examined during those proceedings were his dealings with notorious businessman Kamlesh Pattni, who has spent decades at the centre of Kenya’s most brazen corruption scandals. A seasoned advocate who holds advanced legal qualifications, who positions himself as a corporate law specialist, chose to attend an emergency legal consultation alongside a man the Supreme Court had declared unfit to serve on the Kenyan bench. That choice demands an explanation that Wachira has not provided.
The third and most explosive dimension of the case is what Mutava is alleged to have told EACC investigators after his arrest. Former Law Society of Kenya president and Senior Counsel Nelson Havi, a man who cannot be easily dismissed as a crank, placed on public record through his verified social media accounts the following claim: that Mutava had confessed to investigators that the money being solicited was destined not for his own pocket, but for Justice Josephine Mongare, the very judge who had delivered her ruling against Tuju earlier that same day. Havi went further. He alleged that one of the four men arrested had told investigators that he had fathered a child with the judge and was acting on her behalf.
Those allegations have not been confirmed by the EACC in any public statement. Havi has made them as a named Senior Counsel on a verified platform, and his standing at the Kenyan bar means the claim carries weight that anonymous social media commentary does not. The Judicial Service Commission has issued no statement. Justice Mongare, who continues to sit in the High Court’s Commercial and Tax Division at Milimani, obtained conservatory orders on March 19 blocking investigations against her, and has denied all allegations of wrongdoing. The Chief Justice’s office has said nothing.
Into this extraordinary context Wachira inserts himself as a victim. His lawyers describe the EACC operation as procedurally unfair and an abuse of process, and have warned of constitutional litigation if the commission does not halt its investigation, refund the cash bail, return seized property, and issue a formal public apology. They further allege that after the arrests, Awili was pressured by investigators to alter his statement and implicate the lawyers, a claim the EACC has not responded to on the record.
There is a wider commercial backdrop that Wachira’s lawyers have worked to foreground. The dispute underlying the meeting concerns more than Sh1.9 billion linked to Aero Handling EA Limited, a company associated with Tuju, and a claim that the National Treasury released funds to the Ministry of Defence that were never fully remitted to the company. That litigation is real and ongoing. But the argument that a genuine bribery investigation was manufactured to serve someone’s interests in that commercial row requires the EACC to have orchestrated a trap against an innocent advocate who had, by pure misfortune, ended up in a room with a disgraced former judge, a pile of unsolicited cash and a man who would later claim to have a child with the presiding judge. That is a great deal of bad luck for one afternoon.
The Law Society of Kenya has not issued a formal statement on Wachira’s case, and there is no indication of any disciplinary proceedings against him at this stage. Under Kenyan law, an advocate remains entitled to practice until a competent court finds otherwise. But the silence of the professional body over a case that has placed one of its members in an EACC holding cell alongside a man already removed from the bench for gross misconduct is itself a matter of public interest.
The DPP has not yet indicated whether charges will follow. The EACC has said its investigation remains ongoing. What is clear is that Kimani Wachira walked into Entim Sidai on March 9 as a legal consultant and walked out in handcuffs, his name attached permanently to a bribery scandal that reaches, if the allegations are to be believed, into the heart of a sitting judge’s chambers. His demand letter is forceful. The questions it cannot answer are more forceful still.
NAIROBI, March 28 — Two men alleged to be associates of the notorious Akasha crime dynasty were arraigned before a Nairobi magistrate’s court on Wednesday on charges of threatening to kill a businessman and assaulting him at an upmarket Westlands nightclub, in a case that has thrust one of Kenya’s most feared criminal legacies back into the public eye.
Rahiel Daud, a director of Executive Car World Ltd, and Hitesh Motwani, also known as Vicky, denied two counts before Kibera Senior Principal Magistrate Zainabu Abdul: threatening to kill one Arya Anuj without lawful excuse, and assault causing actual bodily harm. Both offences are alleged to have occurred on the night of March 25, 2026, at Taal Club in Westlands, Nairobi County.
The prosecution further told the court that the two men may be involved in fraud and extortion activities, allegations that, while not yet reduced to formal charges, were placed before the bench as context bearing on the question of bail and the character of the accused persons before the court.
Ghosts of the Akasha Empire
The Akasha name requires no introduction to Kenyans of a certain generation. Ibrahim Abdalla Akasha, the patriarch of what became East Africa’s most fearsome drug trafficking syndicate, built a criminal empire that stretched from the heroin poppy fields of Afghanistan, through the port city of Mombasa, to the street markets of Amsterdam and the cities of Europe. He was gunned down in May 2000 while walking along Bloedstraat in Amsterdam’s entertainment district, shot seven times by a lone assassin in what investigators believed was retaliation over an unpaid drug consignment.
His sons Baktash and Ibrahim Akasha inherited the enterprise and, for nearly two decades, ran what US federal prosecutors described as a sprawling and lucrative international narcotics organisation responsible for distributing multi-ton quantities of heroin, methamphetamine, hashish and methaqualone across multiple continents. The brothers, in the words of the United States Department of Justice, ensured their operation ran with impunity for close to twenty years by eliminating rivals, intimidating witnesses and purchasing the silence of Kenyan government officials including judges, prosecutors and law enforcement officers.
In November 2014, the brothers were snared in a DEA sting operation in Nairobi. Agents posing as South American cartel buyers brokered deals for hundreds of kilograms of heroin and methamphetamine. Four associates, among them an Indian businessman named Vijaygiri Anandgiri Goswami, were arrested alongside them in Mombasa. Following a protracted and heavily corrupted extradition battle in which the brothers continued to bribe Kenyan officials even while in custody, the Kenyan government expelled them to the United States in January 2017. In 2018, both brothers pleaded guilty in a New York federal court. Baktash received 25 years; Ibrahim, 23.
The case laid bare the depth of narco-state capture in Kenya. US court documents, testimonies and sealed indictments implicated sitting governors, judges and a former cabinet secretary in the Akasha bribery network, though few have faced prosecution on Kenyan soil. The shadow of the family has never quite lifted from the East African coast, and law enforcement officials say the criminal networks the Akashas built did not dissolve with their extradition.
A Night at Taal Club Turns Violent
It is against this backdrop that the arrest and charging of Daud and Motwani assumes significance beyond a routine assault case. According to the prosecution, the two confronted Arya Anuj inside Taal Club, a nightlife venue in the busy Westlands entertainment corridor, and threatened to kill him before physically assaulting him, causing him bodily harm. Taal Club sits in one of Nairobi’s most commercially dense and socially visible neighbourhoods, patronised by the city’s business and social elite.
The charge sheet, originating from the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions after a review of investigation files, states that both accused persons uttered words to the effect that they would kill the complainant, words the prosecution categorised as a direct and unlawful death threat.
The proceedings were immediately clouded by a dramatic claim from the defence. Lawyer Steve Ogolla told the court that his clients had been taken from Parklands Police Station and rushed to court without his knowledge or consent. He stated that he had left the station at approximately midday on March 26 but received a call at 2pm informing him that his clients had gone missing from the station’s custody.
Ogolla argued further that neither accused had been permitted to record statements at Parklands Police Station, nor had they been processed through the station’s formal intake procedure before their sudden court appearance. He sought to defer plea-taking on those grounds, and added that the Office of the DPP ought to review the charges to determine whether they crossed the required legal threshold for prosecution.
Magistrate Abdul dismissed the application without hesitation. She directed that charge sheets placed before a court originate from the DPP following a review of investigation files and a determination that there is sufficient basis to prosecute. Plea-taking proceeded.
Through their counsel, the accused applied to be released on lenient cash bail terms, arguing that they posed no flight risk and would comply with any conditions the court chose to impose. The prosecution did not oppose bond in principle but urged the magistrate to take into account the seriousness of the charge of threatening to kill. The state also asked the court to restrict both men from leaving its jurisdiction pending the outcome of proceedings.
Prosecution additionally requested a probation report to assess the accused persons’ background and their standing in the community before bond terms were set, a standard procedural tool that takes on added weight in cases where the individuals before the court are alleged to have ties to organised criminal networks.
Magistrate Abdul directed that both Daud and Motwani be detained at Parklands Police Station until Monday, March 30, 2026, pending the preparation of the pre-bail report. The matter is due to be mentioned on that date for further directions on bond.
Executive Car World Ltd, the firm at which Rahiel Daud holds a directorship and to which Motwani is also linked, presents as a conventional automotive services business with premises along Kiambu Road in Nairobi, offering car sales, a workshop, a tyre and alignment centre, and car washing services. The business maintains a polished public profile with thousands of followers across social media platforms and a professional website.
Investigators and prosecutors familiar with the Akasha case have long emphasised that the family operated a portfolio of seemingly legitimate businesses including transport, clearing and forwarding, and real estate, as fronts for the movement of narco-proceeds. Whether Executive Car World bears any institutional connection to those networks is a matter that has not been established before the court and has not been alleged in the charges currently before Magistrate Abdul. The allegation before the court is limited to the events of March 25 at Taal Club.
What is not in dispute is that the prosecution has elected to link the accused publicly to the Akasha family name in the course of proceedings, a link that, if substantiated by further investigation, would represent a significant development in Kenya’s long-running effort to dismantle whatever remains of that criminal architecture.
Kenyan law enforcement agencies and their international partners have been candid in acknowledging that the extradition of Baktash and Ibrahim Akasha in 2017 disrupted but did not destroy the criminal infrastructure their family built across several decades. The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime has documented how the removal of kingpins frequently produces a vacuum quickly filled by secondary networks, often associates of the principal organisation who have retained operational knowledge, existing relationships and residual financial resources.
Kenya’s Directorate of Criminal Investigations has previously stated that corrupt protection of drug traffickers extended deep into the magistracy, with some lower court officials identified as having shielded narco-networks from prosecution. That the current case has landed before Kibera Magistrate’s Court, and that the DPP elected to place before the bench unverified allegations of fraud and extortion beyond the current charges, suggests that investigators may be treating the Taal Club incident as a thread worth pulling.
Arya Anuj, the complainant, has not made public statements. His identity and business associations have not been reported. Kenya Insights will continue to follow proceedings as the pre-bail report is prepared and the matter returns to court on Monday.
On the morning of March 21, 2026, the Lewa Wildlife Conservancy published a short announcement on its website: Rob Macaire, former British High Commissioner to Kenya, had been appointed its new Chief Executive Officer, effective June 1. The statement was signed by board chairman Michael Joseph, who described it as the beginning of a new era. Within hours, Kenya’s social media had made it into something else entirely.
The backlash was immediate and ferocious. On X, formerly Twitter, the replies to the KBC Channel 1 post carrying the announcement spiralled into thousands. ‘Colonialism changed its name to conservation,’ wrote one user. ‘All our rare earth minerals in Lewa will be mined in our lifetime,’ warned another. A third was blunter still: ‘Why do whites hoard vast ranches in Laikipia while our people suffer deadly landlessness?’ By nightfall, the appointment had become more than a conservation story. It had become a sovereignty question.
It was not the first time a decision in Laikipia had ignited such fury. But the details of Macaire’s background — a career that moved seamlessly from the British Foreign Office, to the global gas company BG Group, to the mining giant Rio Tinto, and now to the helm of Kenya’s most famous conservancy — gave the outrage a sharper edge than usual. And it arrived at a moment when Kenyan sensitivity about foreign land and resource interests was already inflamed, following weeks of national uproar over an Israeli investor’s 520-acre agricultural development in Solai, Nakuru County. The question that Kenyans were asking was not merely about one appointment. It was about a pattern.
The Man at the Centre
Robert Nigel Paul Macaire CMG is, by any conventional measure, a distinguished British public servant. Born in 1966 and educated at Cranleigh School and St Edmund Hall, Oxford, where he read Modern History, he joined the Ministry of Defence in 1987 before transferring to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in 1990. His diplomatic postings read like a tour of the world’s strategic pressure points: Bucharest, Washington, New Delhi, Nairobi, and finally Tehran, where he served as Ambassador to Iran between 2018 and 2021. In January 2022, after returning from Tehran, he joined Rio Tinto as Chief Adviser for UK and International Affairs, focusing on political risk and government relations.
It is that Rio Tinto chapter that has done more to fuel Kenyan suspicion than any other fact in Macaire’s biography. Rio Tinto is one of the largest mining corporations in the world, with active operations in iron ore, copper, aluminium, lithium, and a suite of minerals central to the global clean energy transition. The company does not currently hold publicly disclosed exploration licenses in the Laikipia or Meru zones where Lewa sits. But Rio Tinto’s brand is inseparable, in the public imagination, from large-scale extraction of African resources — and Macaire’s jump from its corridors to a 62,000-acre Kenyan conservancy has struck many observers as, at the very least, an unusual career detour.
Before Rio Tinto, Macaire spent five years as Director of Political Risk for BG Group plc, a major global natural gas company later absorbed by Shell. A 2021 investigation by Declassified UK noted that Macaire left his Nairobi posting to join BG Group, making him one of dozens of senior British diplomats who moved through a revolving door between the Foreign Office and the energy and extractive sectors. For Kenyan critics, that revolving door turns in one direction: toward Africa’s resources.
Lewa’s board, chaired by Michael Joseph — himself the former chief executive of Safaricom — offered a different reading. ‘We are entering a new era of conservation that requires a leader who can engage the global boardroom and the local community,’ Joseph said in a statement. ‘Rob’s diplomatic experience and commitment to Kenyan heritage give him the vision and grit to lead Lewa’s next chapter.’ The conservancy outlined three strategic priorities under Macaire: securing a long-term financial endowment, deepening community agency in conservation decisions, and strengthening its position as a global conservation leader.
Supporters have also pointed to Macaire’s personal connection to Kenya. His wife Alice, during their Nairobi posting between 2008 and 2011, founded and chaired the initiative that led to the restoration of Karura Forest, a landmark urban conservation project in Nairobi. But in a country where the wounds of land dispossession remain raw, personal affection for Kenya and professional association with some of the world’s largest resource extraction corporations are not seen as mutually exclusive propositions.
The Land Beneath the Sanctuary
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The land that is now Lewa Wildlife Conservancy was allocated to the Craig-Douglas family by the British colonial government in 1922. For more than fifty years, it was managed as a cattle ranch known as Lewa Downs. The family’s patriarch, Alexander Douglas, and his wife Elizabeth Cross, moved onto the land and ran it as an agricultural enterprise for decades. Their daughter Delia Craig, born in Kenya in 1924 and raised on the ranch, would become the conservancy’s matriarch, surviving the Mau Mau rebellion and choosing naturalised Kenyan citizenship at independence. It was Delia who first reserved a portion of the land for conservation, and it was her son Ian Craig who would transform the ranch into one of Africa’s most celebrated wildlife sanctuaries.
In 1983, Ian Craig partnered with Anna Merz, a conservationist who provided funding, to establish the fenced Ngare Sergoi Rhino Sanctuary on the western edge of Lewa Downs. Kenya’s black rhino population had collapsed catastrophically: from an estimated 20,000 animals in the mid-1970s to fewer than 300 by the mid-1980s, decimated by poaching and the insatiable global demand for horn. The sanctuary gathered the remnants of northern Kenya’s rhino population and placed them under armed guard. White rhinos from South Africa were later added. By 1993, the sanctuary had expanded to encompass the entire ranch. In 1995, the Lewa Wildlife Conservancy was formally constituted as a non-profit organisation. In 2013, UNESCO inscribed it as an extension of the Mount Kenya World Heritage Site. In 2014, the fence between Lewa and the adjacent Borana Conservancy was removed, creating the Lewa-Borana Landscape, a contiguous 93,000-acre ecosystem that now hosts one of the largest rhino populations in East Africa.
Today, Lewa holds over 12 per cent of Kenya’s eastern black rhinoceros population and the world’s largest single population of Grevy’s zebras. Its anti-poaching record has been among the best on the continent. The conservancy supports over 200,000 people through health clinics, schools, water projects, and microenterprise programmes in the surrounding communities of Meru, Laikipia and Isiolo counties. Outgoing CEO Mike Watson, a former helicopter pilot who took the helm fifteen years ago, is widely credited with transforming a successful private sanctuary into a global conservation benchmark. His retirement on August 1, 2026 closes a chapter that even Lewa’s fiercest critics acknowledge has been consequential.
What lies beneath the earth, however, is a separate and far less settled question. In February 2020, the Laikipia County Government released a mineral exploration report commissioned from the national Ministry of Mining. The findings were striking. The county’s basement rocks, particularly in Laikipia North, were found to contain iron ore, titanium-rich sands, rare earth elements, bauxite, kaolin, garnet, sillimanite, bentonite, and aluminium-rich laterites. Sand rich with titanium and rare earth elements was specifically identified at Ilpolei in Mkogodo West. Iron and aluminium laterites were found at Suguta Ranch, Lonyiek, Kirimon and Suiyan. Governor Ndiritu Muriithi acknowledged at the launch: ‘Our people have always known there are some valuable materials underfoot. This information has been known for a century at the very least.’
That report described only the surface of what the county’s geology may contain. It was, as the lead geologist himself admitted, ‘just the first baby step.’ Crucially, he noted that his team ‘did not have access to some areas.’ The conservancies, with their perimeter fences, armed rangers, restricted entry, and private land status, are among the most comprehensively inaccessible tracts in the county. No independent geological survey of the land beneath Lewa’s core sanctuary has been made publicly available. The Kenyan government has not disclosed whether any exploration licenses have been applied for or granted in the Lewa-Borana Landscape. That silence has become, for a certain class of Kenyan critic, deafening.
The broader context of Kenya’s mineral wealth makes the question harder to dismiss. Mrima Hill in Kwale County has been assessed as one of the world’s top five rare earth deposits, with an in-ground mineral value estimated at over Ksh 5.4 trillion. Kenya’s Kwale coast hosts titanium sands now being actively mined. Turkana holds proven oil deposits. The northern rangelands sit atop basement geology that has barely been scratched. A country that for decades was not considered a significant mining nation has quietly become one of Africa’s most actively prospected frontiers.
The Conservancy Question
The concerns about Lewa do not exist in isolation. They are part of a much wider, much older, and increasingly documented debate about the nature and purpose of Kenya’s conservancy model — and about who, ultimately, holds power in what has become one of the most heavily conservancy-fenced countries on the continent.
Today, Kenya’s conservancies, private ranches, and protected areas together cover more than 20 per cent of the country’s land. The Laikipia plateau alone, covering 9,532 square kilometres, has 48 large-scale ranches sitting on 40.3 per cent of its total land area. Some of the largest are still owned by descendants of British colonial settlers. Three ranches dominate the landscape: the Laikipia Nature Conservancy at 107,000 acres, Ol Pejeta at 88,923 acres, and Loisaba at 62,092 acres. Lewa, at 62,000 acres, is a close fourth.
The Northern Rangelands Trust, founded in 2004 by Ian Craig — Lewa’s co-founder — has since established 43 community conservancies across 42,000 square kilometres of northern and coastal Kenya, covering nearly 8 per cent of the country’s total land area. The NRT’s model has attracted enormous praise from international conservation organisations and Western donors, including USAID, the European Union, and The Nature Conservancy, the wealthiest conservation NGO in the United States. It has also attracted fierce criticism from the communities it claims to serve.
In January 2025, Kenya’s Environment and Land Court delivered a landmark ruling that the NRT had established two conservancies in Cherab and Chari wards in Isiolo County unconstitutionally, without proper community consent, and on unregistered trust lands. The court found that the NRT’s armed rangers operated illegally, and directed the Kenya Wildlife Service to revoke all relevant licences. The ruling was described as one of the most significant legal checks on the conservancy model in Kenyan history. It followed years of community protests, with the Turkana County Government having expelled the NRT entirely in 2016. The Samburu Council of Elders had written to international donors in 2021 requesting a funding audit. In Isiolo, community members reported systematic harassment, land access restrictions, and in some cases extrajudicial killings.
A July 2025 joint report by Avocats Sans Frontieres and the International Federation for Human Rights went further. It documented how NRT’s operations in Isiolo had created a situation in which communities experienced the conservancy not as a partner in development, but as a dominating force replacing state authority and controlling their land and lives. The conservancies, the report found, served as tourist parks and carbon removal projects in which companies including Netflix and Meta purchased offset credits — while the communities whose ancestral lands underpinned those credits had no formal legal basis for ownership and no meaningful access to the revenue streams their land was generating.
A careful comparison of mining concession maps and conservancy boundaries, carried out by analysts writing for The Elephant, found that at least nine NRT-affiliated conservancies had mining concessions inside or adjacent to their boundaries. These included Kalepo, Meibae, Nannapa, Narupa, Naapu, Naibunga Lower, Naibunga Central, Sera, and Biliqo Bulesa — collectively affecting Samburu, Turkana, Maasai, and Borana communities. The NRT also signed a US$12 million, five-year agreement in 2015 with British oil company Tullow Oil and Canadian Africa Oil Corp to establish and operate six community conservancies in Turkana and West Pokot Counties — areas then under active oil exploration. Critics argued that the conservancy model, in those instances, was functioning as a social licence mechanism for resource extraction: placing communities in structured relationships with conservation NGOs before the extraction companies arrived.
The British Army Training Unit Kenya adds a further, rarely discussed dimension to the British footprint in Laikipia. Under a Defence Cooperation Agreement signed at independence, up to six British infantry battalions, representing approximately 10,000 soldiers per year, conduct eight-week exercises on Kenyan land in Laikipia County and at Archer’s Post. BATUK’s main installation, the recently expanded Nyati Barracks, is located adjacent to Laikipia Air Base in Nanyuki. The county government’s own records confirm that by 2009, BATUK had expanded its training grounds to 11 privately owned ranches, including Sosian, Ol Maisor, and the Laikipia Nature Conservancy. In March 2021, a fire started during BATUK training at the Lolldaiga Conservancy destroyed over 10,000 acres and generated litigation that continues to this day. The British military presence, the private ranch network, the conservation NGO ecosystem, and the diplomatic class all operate within the same Laikipia geography. For many Kenyans, that convergence is not coincidental.
The Israeli Parallel
It is impossible to understand the intensity of the Lewa reaction without understanding what had just happened in Solai. In mid-February 2026, Kenyan journalist Alex Chamwada broadcast a promotional segment featuring Erez Rivkin, an Israeli investor who has spent fifteen years building a 520-acre agricultural and residential development in Solai, Nakuru County. Rivkin described the site as ‘a dreamland’ where Israelis and Kenyans would integrate, live together, and raise their children side by side. He spoke of creating a community.
The response was national and visceral. Hundreds of thousands of Kenyans on social media described the project as a kibbutz-style settlement, evoking the 1903 Uganda Scheme — in reality a proposal for Jewish settlement in what is now Kenya’s Uasin Gishu plateau — in which Colonial Secretary Joseph Chamberlain offered land to Zionist leader Theodor Herzl as a refuge from European pogroms. The Zionist Congress rejected the offer in 1905. For many Kenyans watching Rivkin’s segment, the century-old episode felt disturbingly current. Commentators also invoked the 2018 Solai dam tragedy, in which nearly fifty people died when an unlicensed earth dam burst, flooding communities in the same area where Rivkin’s development now stands.
The legal and factual picture is more nuanced. Kenya’s 2010 Constitution and Land Act prohibit foreign nationals from owning freehold land; they may hold land on leasehold for a maximum of 99 years. Rivkin’s operation appears to be structured through a registered Kenyan entity. No evidence has emerged of any Israeli state connection to the Solai project, and the Kenyan government had issued no statement on the matter as of mid-February. Defenders of the project, including some Kenyan commentators, argued that the outrage was overheated and that the development creates local employment in a region that needs it.
But the legal position and the political reality are different things. In a Kenya where unresolved land grievances go back to the colonial period, where the land question has triggered election violence, and where a significant portion of the best agricultural and conserved land remains under foreign-linked control, the symbolism of a British diplomat turned Rio Tinto executive taking the helm of a 62,000-acre UNESCO World Heritage Site arriving within weeks of the Solai controversy was politically toxic. The two stories fused in public discourse, creating a single narrative about foreign powers and their local allies quietly securing Kenya’s most strategic assets — whether through the language of conservation, investment, or development.
A Century of Accumulation
The land Lewa sits on was granted to a British colonial family in 1922, while Kenya was under Crown administration and Kenyans had no political standing to contest such allocations. The Craig family, to their credit, chose to remain after independence, took Kenyan citizenship, and committed substantial personal resources and decades of their lives to a genuine conservation mission. The rhino population recovery at Lewa is real. The community programmes are real. The UNESCO designation is a recognition of real conservation achievement. None of that is fabricated.
But it also cannot be separated from the fact that the land’s foundational title derives from a colonial allocation, that the family that holds it has always been British-linked, that its founding director Ian Craig went on to create the NRT, an organisation now found by Kenyan courts to have overstepped its authority on community land, and that its new chief executive arrives from the world’s most powerful resource extraction company. Each individual fact has an innocent explanation. Together, they form a pattern that Kenyans are under no obligation to find reassuring.
The Laikipia plateau, which contains Lewa and the country’s densest concentration of large privately held conservancies, sits on basement geology confirmed to contain titanium, rare earth elements, iron ore, and associated minerals. The global strategic importance of rare earths, driven by the clean energy transition, has accelerated enormously in the past decade. China controls over 60 per cent of global rare earth production and a comparable share of processing capacity. The United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom are all pursuing aggressive diversification strategies. Kenya, with confirmed deposits at Mrima Hill in Kwale, probable deposits in Laikipia, and a government still struggling to exercise regulatory authority over its northern rangelands, is a target of active interest from Western mineral strategists.
In that context, the appointment of a former British intelligence-aligned diplomat who spent his post-Kenya career at a gas company and then at Rio Tinto to run one of Kenya’s most strategically located and geologically under-surveyed conservancies is, at minimum, a question that deserves a serious answer. It may have an entirely innocent one. But the Kenyan public is not obligated to assume innocence in the absence of transparency.
The Unanswered Questions
There are questions that Lewa Wildlife Conservancy has not yet publicly addressed, and that the Kenyan government has not required it to answer. Has any geological survey been conducted of the mineral subsoil beneath the Lewa-Borana Landscape, and if so, by whom, and with what results? Have any exploration license applications been filed by any party covering the core conservancy land or its immediate surrounds? Does the conservancy’s land title, held by a non-profit entity, carry any sub-surface mineral rights, and if so, who controls them? Did Rob Macaire, during his time at Rio Tinto, advise on any projects related to East Africa or Kenya specifically? What was the nature of Lewa’s search for a new CEO, and were African candidates considered? What is the conservancy’s position on the conduct of the NRT, which Ian Craig founded on the Lewa model, and with which Lewa has maintained close institutional ties?
None of these questions is answered by the appointment announcement. Lewa has said nothing publicly about the online furore. Its official communications continue to focus on rhino protection statistics, community health clinic numbers, and Grevy’s zebra census data. Those are real achievements. But the silence on the structural questions is itself a data point.
The conservancy operates on land that falls under the legislative framework of Kenya’s 2010 Constitution, the Land Act, the Community Land Act of 2016, the Wildlife Conservation and Management Act, and the Mining Act. The Kenya Wildlife Service issues its operational licences. The National Land Commission has oversight authority over historical land allocation grievances. The Ministry of Mining oversees exploration licensing. None of these institutions has publicly weighed in on the Macaire appointment or on the related questions about mineral subsoil rights and access. Parliament has not held hearings. The National Land Commission has not commented.
The accountability gap is significant. It is not unique to Lewa. It runs through the entire architecture of Kenya’s conservancy sector, which has grown from a handful of private ranches in the 1990s to a network covering nearly a fifth of the country’s land, funded primarily by foreign donors, governed largely by private boards, and operating with a degree of opacity that would not be permitted in the formal public sector. The NRT’s court losses in 2025 demonstrated that that opacity has legal limits. What those limits are in practice, and who enforces them, remains unresolved.
The Sovereignty Question
Kenya gained formal independence in 1963. Sixty-three years later, the country’s most celebrated wildlife conservancy is led by a succession of expatriate executives — outgoing CEO Mike Watson, a former helicopter pilot, was himself a non-Kenyan — on land allocated to a British colonial family in 1922, managed through an institutional network with deep ties to British diplomatic and corporate circles, situated on ground that independent geological surveys confirm contains strategic minerals, and funded substantially by Western donors whose strategic interests in African resources are not hidden.
It is possible that all of this is entirely benign: that Lewa is what it says it is, that Macaire’s mining background is professional coincidence, that the mineral speculation is community anxiety projecting onto institutional opacity, and that the conservancy model, for all its documented problems in the NRT context, represents at Lewa a genuine and enduring partnership between a British-linked institution and the Kenyan communities it serves. That reading is defensible.
It is also possible that the conservancy model, at its most sophisticated expression, functions as something more complex: a mechanism by which large tracts of geologically significant Kenyan land are held in a form of institutional custody by entities whose ultimate accountability is to international boards, foreign donors, and a network of diplomatic and corporate interests that does not answer to the Kenyan taxpayer, does not appear before the National Assembly, and does not register its mineral subsoil arrangements with the Ministry of Mining. That reading is also defensible.
What is not defensible is the current level of opacity. If Lewa’s land contains no minerals of commercial significance, it should be able to say so on the basis of a publicly disclosed, independently conducted geological survey. If no exploration licenses have ever been filed over the Lewa-Borana Landscape, the Mining Registry should be able to confirm this. If Rob Macaire’s Rio Tinto role had no connection to East Africa, he should be able to say so directly and publicly. The absence of these clarifications is not a proof of wrongdoing. It is an invitation to precisely the kind of speculation that Lewa is now drowning in.
Kenyans are not asking Lewa to stop protecting rhinos. They are asking it to be a Kenyan institution in a way that matters: transparent about what lies beneath its land, accountable to the communities around it, and honest about who its new chief executive is and what he brings from the corridors of global resource extraction. That is not neo-colonialism in reverse. That is what sovereignty looks like.
A Pattern Across the Plateau
Lewa is not alone in attracting such scrutiny. Ol Pejeta Conservancy, at 90,000 acres the largest in Laikipia, was purchased in 2004 by the UK-based charity Fauna and Flora International with funding from the Arcus Foundation, a private American philanthropic vehicle. Borana Conservancy, at 32,000 acres, operates immediately adjacent to Lewa and has merged its wildlife ecosystem with it. Lolldaiga Conservancy, where BATUK conducts annual military training exercises and where a British Army fire destroyed over 10,000 acres in 2021, is a 49,000-acre private ranch. Loisaba Conservancy, at 62,000 acres, sits on the northern edge of the plateau. The Laikipia Nature Conservancy, at 107,000 acres the largest single private holding in the county, sits on land whose sub-surface has been even less publicly surveyed than Lewa’s.
Across these conservancies, the pattern is consistent: colonial land allocations, converted from ranching to conservation after independence, now operating as private non-profit institutions with international boards, Western donor dependency, restricted community access, and varying degrees of accountability to the Kenyan state. The individual conservation achievements are genuine. The structural accountability questions are unresolved. The mineral subsoil remains a closed book.
The Laikipia County Government’s own 2020 mining report acknowledged that its geological survey teams did not have access to some areas of the county. Those areas are, in significant measure, the conservancies. The county allocated Ksh 10 million in its 2020-2021 budget to initiate artisanal mining operations in areas where access exists. The areas where it does not exist are governed by private fences, private security, and private boards — some of whose members sit in London, Washington and New York.
Rob Macaire takes the helm of Lewa Wildlife Conservancy on June 1, 2026. He will inherit a conservancy with a genuine conservation record, a board that includes respected Kenyan figures alongside its international members, and a community programme infrastructure that reaches hundreds of thousands of people. He will also inherit a political environment that has fundamentally changed since his predecessor took the job fifteen years ago.
Kenya in 2026 is not Kenya in 2011. The youth who drove the Gen Z protests of 2024 and who have elevated land sovereignty to a primary political concern are not going to accept opacity from an institution as prominent as Lewa without sustained pressure. The courts that ruled against the NRT in January 2025 have demonstrated that the legal frameworks for community land rights and conservancy governance have teeth. The National Land Commission, embattled as it is, has a constitutional mandate to investigate historical land injustices that extends to colonial-era allocations. Parliament has the authority to summon the Mining Registrar and ask, on the record, whether any party holds or has applied for exploration licenses beneath the Lewa-Borana Landscape.
Whether any of those mechanisms will be deployed remains to be seen. Kenya’s political class has historically been comfortable with the conservancy ecosystem, which provides high-end tourism, philanthropic networks, and social capital that flows upward from Nanyuki to Nairobi. The same leading political families that have stakes in Laikipia real estate are not natural advocates for aggressive mineral transparency in the plateau.
What is clear is that the Macaire appointment has cracked open a conversation that was always going to happen, and that was always going to be this uncomfortable. The question of who controls Kenya’s land, who benefits from what lies beneath it, and whether the conservation model as practiced across Laikipia represents genuine partnership or sophisticated continuation of colonial resource holding is not a question that social media fury invented. It is a question that has been building for decades in academic journals, land courts, community meetings, and the oral histories of Samburu elders who remember when the fences went up and where they walked before.
Rob Macaire may be exactly what Lewa’s board says he is: a diplomat of genuine personal commitment to Kenya, a financier of conservation endowments, a bridge-builder between the conservancy world and the global institutions that fund it. Or he may be something more layered. What Kenyans are entitled to demand is that they do not have to choose between those possibilities on the basis of a press release and an institutional silence.
The rhinos at Lewa are not the story. The story is what lies beneath them, who knows, and who decides.
The CEO of the Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA), appointed in February 2026, has now assumed office. Among his priorities, Peter Maina Karimi highlighted stricter enforcement against illegal gambling and stepped-up oversight of responsible gambling.
Appointment and taking office at the GRA
Karimi was appointed to the CEO position back in February 2026, but has only now formally taken office. His arrival coincided with a major institutional overhaul: the former Betting Control and Licensing Board was dissolved and replaced by the newly established Gambling Regulatory Authority. In effect, this amounts to a full reset of the country’s gambling oversight system.
During the transition period, Peter Mbugi served as acting head. His interim leadership was due precisely to the institutional reorganization and the need to ensure continuity of the regulator’s work until a permanent head was confirmed. With Karimi’s arrival, the transition phase has officially ended.
Tightening enforcement on all fronts
Upon taking office, Karimi stated his intention to step up the fight against illegal operators and strengthen responsible gambling mechanisms. According to him, the regulator plans to pursue several lines of action, each with its own set of measures.
Among the key areas, he singled out advertising monitoring, countering unlicensed platforms, protecting minors, and public education efforts.
Advertising to face tighter scrutiny
One of the first steps will be stricter oversight of gambling advertising. The GRA plans to introduce restrictions under which betting ads will be allowed only during late-night broadcast hours. This practice is already used in a number of European jurisdictions and is aimed at reducing the impact of advertising messages on vulnerable groups.
The regulator intends not just to announce the restrictions, but to enforce them through active monitoring of advertising channels.
Illegal sites face blocking
A separate target for the GRA will be unregistered gambling sites operating in Kenya. Karimi emphasized that unlicensed operators undermine compliance standards and reduce the level of player protection. In the event of disputes, users of such platforms are effectively left without a mechanism to protect their rights.
And yet Kenyans often choose offshore sites because these platforms offer more attractive terms and bonuses. For example, residents of Kenya prefer major international iGaming brands. Interestingly, the lists of these brands are remarkably similar to those that can be found in Australia or New Zealand. Industry experts we spoke to ahead of preparing the article told us about this. They showed us online casinos where players can get the popular in Australia free spins no deposit casino offers, and then provided a similar list for Kenya. We really found quite a few overlaps.
However, Kenyans’ approach to gambling differs from that of wealthier Australians. For them, such an offer looks like an opportunity to improve their financial situation. In Kenya, quite a lot of people live below the poverty line, so they view gambling as a chance at a better life. Such people are at higher risk, so the regulator is taking a range of measures to protect them.
Among other things, it plans to step up efforts to identify and shut down such resources, using both technical tools and interagency cooperation.
No minors allowed — violators face shutdown
Kenyan law unequivocally prohibits anyone under 18 from participating in gambling. Karimi warned that operators that allow minors to open accounts will face immediate sanctions, up to and including the full shutdown of the platform. The GRA will exercise control through licensing procedures and regular compliance checks.
Special attention is planned for the online segment, where age verification remains one of the system’s weakest links.
Prevention through partnerships with industry and government
In addition to punitive measures, the GRA is placing emphasis on education and awareness work. The regulator intends to launch joint initiatives with market participants and government bodies. Their goal:
raising awareness among the public about the risks associated with gambling;
fostering a culture of responsible gambling;
creating a more transparent and “compliant” market environment.
Such cooperation, in Karimi’s view, should complement the regulator’s oversight function and reduce the industry’s social costs.
Market grows as regulator prepares new tools
The context in which the GRA is beginning full-fledged work is telling. Kenya’s gambling industry has seen rapid growth, especially in the online betting segment. The regulator intends to use the powers granted under the new law to strengthen licensing procedures, ensure operators’ compliance with requirements, and curb the illegal segment.
Under Karimi, the GRA is preparing to introduce additional regulatory measures within the updated legal framework, which could significantly change the rules of the game for all participants in the Kenyan market.
A Nairobi woman recently posted a six-minute video to social media that deserves to be playing on loop in the boardrooms of every life insurer operating in this country.
In it, she describes how she lost Sh540,000 paid into Britam Holdings’ Akiba Savings Plan after she lost her job and could no longer sustain monthly premiums of Sh90,000.
When she escalated her case to Britam’s customer care desk, she was told her entire contribution had been forfeited. “Where did it go?” she asks, her voice breaking. “This was supposed to be an investment that makes profit.”
Where it went is not a mystery. Her money went exactly where the product was designed to send it. Into commissions, administrative charges, mortality cost reserves, and ultimately into the insurer’s bottom line.
Britam posted a pre-tax profit of Sh7.33 billion for the year ended December 2024, a 52 per cent jump from the Sh4.82 billion it recorded the previous year. The company holds 25 per cent of Kenya’s life insurance market for the eighteenth consecutive year. Business is spectacular. It always is when the product punishes the very income shock that most customers will inevitably face.
But this story is not only about Britam. It is about an entire industry, a regulatory architecture, and a financial culture that has for decades sold endowment and education insurance policies to Kenyan parents under the most emotionally manipulative pretences imaginable, while carefully concealing the structural realities of what those parents were actually buying.
“I personally lost 900k to the same Britam after contributing 30k a month for about 3 years. It is sold as an INVESTMENT, yet it is actually a policy — when you stop paying, you lose everything.” — Kenyan investor, social media
THE ARCHITECTURE OF THE TRAP
Let us strip sentiment from this and look at the structure of the product. An education endowment policy, offered under names such as Britam’s Boresha Elimu and Super Education Plus, Jubilee’s Career Life Plus, CIC’s Academia Policy, ICEA Lion’s Usomi Bora, Old Mutual’s Elimika, and Madison’s Bima ya Karo, is, at its core, a bundled financial product.
It combines a long-term savings commitment with a life insurance wrapper. Policy terms run from five to as long as twenty years. Minimum monthly premiums at most providers start from Sh3,000 and scale upward depending on the sum assured. At the upper end of the market, clients are committing Sh30,000, Sh50,000, even Sh90,000 per month for a decade or more.
Here is the critical detail that almost no agent explains at the point of sale: in most of these products, a policyholder who defaults before a specified threshold — typically the twenty-fourth or twenty-fifth policy month — receives nothing. Zero. Not a partial refund, not a surrender value, not an acknowledgement of the premiums paid.
The entire amount is absorbed. It is described in product documents, when they are disclosed at all, as an absorption into administrative charges, agent commissions, and mortality cost reserves.
In practice, this means a parent who commits Sh30,000 per month and loses their job after eighteen months has lost Sh540,000 with no legal recourse and no regulatory backstop.
A parent paying Sh50,000 per month who is retrenched after two years has lost Sh1.2 million.
These are not edge cases. They are predictable outcomes in an economy where formal employment accounts for only fifteen per cent of the total workforce of 20.8 million people, where real private sector wages declined in inflation-adjusted terms for the fifth consecutive year in 2024, and where sudden income disruption is not the exception but the condition of Kenyan economic life.
WHAT THE FIRST MONTHS OF PREMIUMS ACTUALLY BUY
The industry’s own internal logic reveals the deception. In the early months of any endowment policy, the client’s premiums are not primarily accumulating savings.
They are servicing the distribution infrastructure that sold them the policy. Agent commissions on life endowment products in Kenya are paid heavily in the first year, front-loaded to incentivise new business.
Administrative fees are deducted. Mortality charges for the attached life cover are levied. Only the residual portion begins to compound toward the eventual maturity benefit.
This means that a policyholder in their first two years is, in financial terms, primarily funding the system. Their money is paying the agent who signed them up, the overhead of the insurer, and a thin slice of actual savings.
The notion that they are accumulating an investment from day one is a fiction that is rarely corrected by the agent, who is compensated on new business written and not on policy persistency.
Industry insiders have confirmed for years what policy data would show if insurers were required to disclose it: lapse rates in the first two years of education endowment policies are substantial.
Agents are incentivised to sell without adequately stress-testing whether a prospective client can sustain premiums for five, ten, or fifteen years.
The IRA has issued fines to insurers for failure to honour claims, but has published no specific directive requiring insurers to illustrate at point of sale what a client would recover if they lapsed in the first twenty-four months. That gap in regulation is not an oversight. It is a structural benefit to the industry.
“I once tried to enlighten some policyholders that buying term life insurance plus a money market fund is a lot better than an education policy. I was told: ‘Please do not educate our stupid policy holders.’” — Industry practitioner
THE NUMBERS THE SALESPEOPLE WILL NEVER SHOW YOU
Let us conduct the comparison that every Kenyan parent considering an education policy deserves to see before they sign anything.
Assume a parent commits Sh10,000 per month for fifteen years. The insurer’s marketing material will show them a guaranteed lump sum at maturity, with loyalty bonuses and life cover built in.
What the marketing material will not show them is the opportunity cost of locking that money into a product whose real internal rate of return, after fees and charges, typically runs between five and seven per cent per annum.
The same Sh10,000 per month invested in a money market fund generating returns at the current average effective annual rate of around nine to eleven per cent, with complete liquidity and the ability to exit at any time without penalty, would over fifteen years substantially outperform the endowment product.
At peak Treasury bill yields in mid-2024, those instruments were returning as high as sixteen per cent.
Even accounting for the CBK rate cuts that have brought yields down in 2025, Kenya’s government securities market has consistently offered returns that dwarf the embedded return inside an education endowment policy, with zero lock-in, zero lapse risk, and no agent commission being deducted from the first shilling.
Edwin Dande of Cytonn Investments has made the point publicly and precisely: instead of an education insurance policy, buy Government of Kenya treasury bonds with ten, fifteen, or twenty-year maturity dates timed to when your child will enter secondary school or university. You receive biannual coupon payments as income throughout the holding period. Your capital is returned at maturity. Infrastructure bonds carry tax-exempt interest. There is no surrender clause, no lapse provision, no agent collecting a commission from your first twelve months of savings, and no call centre telling you your money has been forfeited.
The insurers know this comparison exists.
Their marketing, relentlessly emotional and emphatically vague on fee structures, exists precisely to prevent parents from making it.
THE PRODUCTS BY NAME
Britam’s Boresha Elimu Plan is marketed as a comprehensive, flexible education insurance solution aligned with Kenya’s new 2-6-3-3-3 curriculum. It offers three guaranteed lump sum payouts in the last three years of the policy term, which can run from six to eighteen years.
Premium waiver in the event of the policyholder’s death or disability is included. What the marketing does not foreground is that a client who stops paying before the twenty-fifth month has no cash value to recover, and that the premium waiver applies only in specified circumstances that explicitly exclude unemployment.
Jubilee’s Career Life Plus is positioned for parents targeting secondary and university education.
It carries an investment-linked component and offers loyalty bonuses for consistent contributors of over ten years.
It is an instructive product to examine precisely because it is marketed as investment-linked, a framing that implies equity participation and growth.
The reality is that an investment-linked endowment is still an endowment: the client bears the fee drag, the early-year commission deductions, and the surrender risk. The investment link does not convert the product from insurance into a transparent, liquid financial instrument.
CIC’s Academia Policy, Old Mutual’s Elimika, ICEA Lion’s Usomi Bora, and Madison’s Bima ya Karo follow substantially the same structural logic across different premium floors and term ranges. All combine savings with life cover.
All carry early-lapse provisions that can result in total forfeiture of premiums paid.
All are sold through agent networks that are compensated on new business and not on the long-term solvency of the client’s relationship with the product.
In each case, the accompanying money market fund product offered by the same institution would have delivered superior, accessible, and penalty-free returns for a client whose income ever came under pressure.
THE REGULATORY FAILURE
The Insurance Regulatory Authority operates under the Insurance Act Cap 487, with a statutory consumer disputes mechanism under Section 204A of the Act. Aggrieved policyholders can file written complaints with the Commissioner of Insurance, whose determinations are subject to appeal to the Insurance Tribunal within thirty days.
The IRA has fined insurers for failure to honour claims. It has not published any directive requiring insurers to provide prospective policyholders with a written illustration of what they would recover if they lapsed before the twenty-fifth month.
That omission is the central regulatory scandal in this story. The IRA mandates disclosure of the maturity benefit. It does not mandate disclosure of the lapse scenario, which is statistically far more likely for a significant proportion of the policyholders being sold these products.
Kenya’s financial consumer protection architecture makes it compulsory to tell a buyer what they will receive if everything goes right. It does not compel the seller to explain what happens when something goes wrong, which in an economy with this level of income volatility, is the scenario that matters most.
Industry voices have for years argued that the IRA should require life insurers to separate the insurance and investment components of endowment products in their disclosures, and that the Capital Markets Authority should assert regulatory jurisdiction over any product sold as an investment.
The proposal has not advanced. The status quo, in which an insurer can market a product as investment-grade to buyers who do not understand that it is an insurance policy governed by insurance law, with insurance surrender terms, and insurance commission structures, continues undisturbed.
“IRA should insist that insurance sells only protection and CMA should insist that any insurance company selling investments brings it under the CMA umbrella. Insurance companies should disclose how much income is coming from forfeited premiums.”
WHAT SMART PARENTS SHOULD DO INSTEAD
The case for education insurance is not wholly without merit in a narrow sense. The death benefit and premium waiver provision is a genuine protection.
If a policyholder dies and the insurer waives remaining premiums while paying out the maturity benefit, a child’s education is secured regardless of the parent’s absence.
Term life insurance provides this protection at a fraction of the cost, without locking the savings component into an illiquid, penalty-laden vehicle.
The rational financial structure for a Kenyan parent planning for a child’s education is to separate the functions.
Buy term life insurance, which is cheap, offers high cover, and can be cancelled without penalty. Then invest the remainder in instruments that are liquid, transparent, and governed by the Capital Markets Authority.
Money market funds averaging nine to eleven per cent in effective annual returns are accessible from as little as Sh1,000 via platforms including Britam’s own asset management division, Sanlam, ICEA Lion, CIC, and the Co-operative Bank unit trust platform.
Government treasury bonds, particularly infrastructure bonds with tax-exempt coupons, provide long-term, inflation-beating returns with capital guaranteed by the state and no surrender clause in existence anywhere in the term.
The insurer does not want you to know this.
The agent does not want you to know this. The product literature is written so that you do not compare. Every page of the Boresha Elimu or Career Life Plus marketing is designed to make you feel that refusing the product is a failure of parental responsibility, rather than the financially literate decision it actually is.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Education insurance policies are not illegal. They are, in the strict technical sense, authorised, supervised, and compliant financial instruments. That is precisely the problem.
The regulatory framework has been designed to make them legal, not to make them fair. It mandates disclosure of what the product delivers when held to maturity. It does not mandate disclosure of what the product costs when life intervenes, as life, in Kenya, has an unfortunate habit of doing.
The woman in the viral video lost Sh540,000. The investor who spent three years paying Sh30,000 a month to Britam lost Sh900,000.
Across the nation, thousands of policyholders who trusted an agent, believed the brochure, and signed a commitment they could not ultimately sustain have lost money that, deployed differently, would have grown, remained accessible, and survived the income shocks that education endowment policies are specifically designed not to cover.
Their losses are not bad luck. They are the intended operating mechanism of the product.
Until the IRA requires that every education endowment policy be sold alongside a written, quantified illustration of the lapse scenario; until the CMA asserts jurisdiction over any product sold as an investment regardless of the insurer’s regulatory domicile; and until insurers are required to publish the annual income they derive from forfeited premiums, this industry will continue to do exactly what it is currently doing: extracting wealth from Kenyan families in the name of their children’s futures, with the full blessing of the law.
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Complaints against insurance companies can be directed to the Insurance Regulatory Authority consumer disputes desk. The IRA toll-free complaints line is 0800 723 225.
For policyholders who have already passed the twenty-fifth month threshold, a surrender value is available from the insurer, though it will be substantially below total premiums paid. Those who believe they were not adequately informed of lapse terms at point of sale may file a formal written complaint with Britam’s customer service and, if unsatisfied, escalate to the IRA.
When George Musembi Muia retired from the Kenya Revenue Authority in 2022, he had spent decades in government service and imagined the next chapter of his life would be a comfortable one. Perhaps a board chairmanship at one of the country’s better-paying parastatals. A prestigious exit. The kind of post that rewards a man for years of institutional loyalty. What he got instead was the most expensive lesson of his life, and a High Court case he cannot escape.
Musembi, a former senior manager at KRA, is now before the Nairobi High Court fighting to recover Sh63 million he claims was swindled from him by a man he describes as a consummate fraud.
The man in question is one Cosmas Mutati Nzoka, whom Musembi says presented himself as a well-oiled insider with direct access to the innermost rings of the Kenya Kwanza administration.
Names like that of Farouk Kibet, President William Ruto’s powerful personal assistant, Head of Public Service Felix Koskei, then-Transport Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen and the feared Kapsaret MP Oscar Sudi were allegedly dropped into conversation with the casual ease of someone who actually knew them.
Musembi did not know any of those men personally. He had never moved in those circles. But he wanted to, badly enough that he would wire millions in cash, hand over dollar-stuffed brown envelopes inside a grey Mercedes-Benz at Muthaiga Square, and keep paying even as the promised appointment failed to materialise. His account before the court reads, as one observer put it, less like a civil case and more like the plot of a financial thriller.
The Introduction
The saga began, according to court documents, in late 2023, seeded by a seemingly ordinary connection. While still working at KRA before his retirement, Musembi had come to know a man called David Muema, a clearing agent who operated at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. It was Muema who served as the critical bridge, the man who introduced the retired revenue official to Mutati and gave the introduction the kind of credibility only a trusted mutual contact can provide.
Muema, Musembi told the court, vouched for Mutati as a well-connected businessman who moved freely through the corridors of government big offices. More specifically, Muema allegedly told him that Mutati could deliver a board chairmanship position at one of the parastatals falling under the then Ministry of Transport and Roads. The position Musembi had his sights set on was the chairmanship of the Kenya Urban Roads Authority, KURA, a body responsible for the development, maintenance and management of urban road networks across the country. The seat, according to Musembi, was vacant at the time.
The Meeting at a Thika Road Hotel
The first meeting between Musembi and Mutati was arranged for December 2023, at a hotel on Thika Road at 7pm. It was the kind of hour and venue where deals are discussed without too many witnesses. By Musembi’s account, Mutati arrived brimming with names. He spoke of then-Transport CS Kipchumba Murkomen, whom he claimed to have access to, and through Murkomen he allegedly said he could reach Felix Koskei, the Head of Public Service and President Ruto’s Chief of Staff, the most powerful civil servant in the country. He also invoked Farouk Kibet, the personal assistant to the President whose influence within State House has become the stuff of political legend.
The name-dropping did not stop there. Mutati allegedly threw Oscar Sudi’s name into the mix as well. Sudi, the Kapsaret MP, is widely regarded as one of President Ruto’s most politically connected and feared allies, a man whose proximity to the presidency was, by his own design and public perception, near absolute.
Politicians and commentators had long described the Sudi-Farouk axis as the informal gateway to the head of state. For a retiree hunting a parastatal chair with no obvious political connections, Mutati’s name-dropping must have felt like striking gold.
Musembi told the court exactly what he felt in that moment. “When the defendant dropped those big names I felt like I was dealing with the right team to assist me secure the appointment as board chair of KURA since the defendant kept promising me it was easy as long as I was ready to comply with their demands,” he stated in his testimony.
Cash in Dollars, Delivered in Envelopes
The cash demands began almost immediately. On December 21, 2023, just weeks after the first meeting, Mutati allegedly asked for Sh3 million, which he said needed to be handed to Koskei personally as a facilitation fee for the appointment.
Musembi, by his own admission, complied without hesitation. He withdrew the funds, converted them into US dollars in denominations of 100, counting out 191 notes in total, packaged them into a brown envelope and drove to Muthaiga Square to make the delivery.
The scene at Muthaiga Square was, by Musembi’s account, almost cinematic in its understated audacity. “I found the defendant waiting alone in a car, a Mercedes-Benz grey in colour. The defendant took the money in form of dollars and promised me that he was to deliver the money to Felix Koskei the same day,” Musembi told the court. The following day, December 23, 2023, Mutati allegedly returned with an update. The delivery had been made, he said. Koskei had received the funds.
But a new complication had apparently emerged. Koskei, Mutati allegedly told Musembi, did not work alone.
The appointment required sign-off from Murkomen, Sudi and Farouk as well. Each of them, Mutati allegedly said, wanted a cut.
The figure he named was Sh5 million for the trio.
Musembi’s testimony lays bare just how completely the fraud had trapped him by this point. “Because I had legitimate expectations to become the board chair of KURA, I did not want to delay because the defendant was pushing me so much to give out the money so that I do not miss the chance. I mobilised the money as soon as the defendant wanted and handed over the money to the defendant in cash,” he told the court.
The Borrowing Spree and the DCI
With the initial instalments paid and the appointment still not forthcoming, the demands continued to multiply. Mutati allegedly pivoted to a new story entirely, telling Musembi that he was also chasing a Sh3 billion contract with the Kenya National Highways Authority for road construction.
He needed another Sh3 million for facilitation costs, Mutati said, promising it would all be repaid. The pattern, which courts elsewhere have seen in confidence fraud cases, was classic: each payment was justified by a plausible new development, and each new development required another payment.
By the time the total losses crystallised at Sh63 million, Musembi had finally turned to the Directorate of Criminal Investigations.
The DCI, according to court documents, managed to trace Mutati, and he was subsequently arraigned at Kibera Law Courts on criminal charges arising from the matter. But even that development did not close the saga. The civil suit in the High Court runs parallel to the criminal proceedings, and Musembi has had to navigate both simultaneously.
In a twist that has added a remarkable layer to the proceedings, Mutati has not simply denied the allegations. He has gone on the offensive. According to documents before the court, Mutati turned the tables entirely, claiming that it was in fact Musembi who owed him money.
Specifically, Mutati allegedly sent a counter-demand through his lawyers claiming that Musembi had borrowed Sh47 million from him and had yet to repay it in full. The demand was sent to Musembi’s lawyers, instructing them to ensure their client settled the debt.
The Architecture of the Scam
What the Musembi case lays bare is not just the audacity of the accused but a structural vulnerability in how Kenyans seeking state appointments perceive the route to power.
Farouk Kibet has for years been publicly described, even by senior Kenya Kwanza politicians, as the de facto gatekeeper to President Ruto.
Murkomen himself, before his elevation to cabinet, publicly praised Farouk as an indispensable figure, noting that accessing the President required clearing with his personal assistant first.
Oscar Sudi has cultivated a similar reputation as a political fixer whose endorsement carries real weight. Felix Koskei, as Head of Public Service, holds formal authority over the apparatus through which state appointments flow.
None of those named have been accused of any wrongdoing in this matter. There is no suggestion in the case that any of them received a single shilling of the money Musembi paid.
What Mutati allegedly did was exploit the public mythology that surrounds these figures, their proximity to power, their informal influence, the general belief that appointments in Kenya do not happen through merit alone.
He weaponised reputation, not relationship.
The Musembi case is not an isolated phenomenon. Kenya has in recent years seen a proliferation of what investigators call appointment brokers, individuals who market their alleged connections to the presidency or key government offices and collect fees from desperate job-seekers willing to pay almost any amount for a foothold in the state.
The Directorate of Criminal Investigations has handled multiple such cases, though few have involved sums as large as what Musembi claims to have lost.
A Retiree’s Expensive Dream
There is a painful human story beneath the legal arguments. Musembi is a man who spent his working life in public service, retiring from the KRA, one of the country’s more technically demanding revenue agencies.
He was not an obvious mark. He was not naive. He simply wanted something that many retired public servants want, a recognition of his years of service in the form of a prestigious board appointment, and he believed, as many do, that such appointments require navigating informal channels rather than official ones.
That belief, it appears, cost him Sh63 million and his peace of mind. He is now crisscrossing Nairobi’s courts, pursuing a man who has flipped the narrative and is demanding money back.
The KURA chairmanship, meanwhile, has long since been filled through other channels. The seat that was supposed to be his remains, for him, permanently out of reach.
The case continues before the High Court in Nairobi.
Former Kenya National Union of Teachers secretary general Wilson Sossion has doubled down on his bid to reclaim the union’s top seat, setting up a direct showdown with incumbent Collins Oyuu ahead of the April 3 national elections.
Sossion maintains he is fully eligible to run, brushing off Oyuu’s claims that the Knut constitution bars him from the race for not being a member.
Oyuu, speaking after a union meeting in Embu on March 18, dismissed Sossion’s candidature, arguing that Knut does not recognise “life membership.”
“Some people are coming back to say ‘I’m a life member of the union’. In Knut leadership there’s no life member, the constitution is very clear; membership is by contribution and a member who we pick,” Oyuu said.
“We want to tell you, loud and clear before central region, Knut is not a banana republic. Take your time and go elsewhere, fetch for other things.”
But Sossion has hit back, framing Oyuu’s remarks as panic in the face of a serious challenger.
He insisted the union is democratic and does not discriminate against members who comply with its rules.
“I’m a fully paid-up member of Knut since September 1, 1993 when I joined the teaching service. Even when I stepped out in 2021, I have paid my union dues in full up to and including June 2026, and even paid supplementary dues, which is allowed internationally,” Sossion said.
The Knut constitution requires members to pay a Sh100 entrance fee alongside annual subscriptions and any levies set by the National Executive Council or Annual Delegates Conference.
It also limits membership to those who are or have been actively engaged as teachers. Any disputes over membership are referred to the National Executive Council for review by the union’s Professional Standards Committee.
Sossion’s eligibility question was effectively settled on February 27 when the Court of Appeal ruled that his deregistration and removal from the teachers’ register by the Teachers Service Commission (TSC) in 2019 were unlawful.
While the court acknowledged that TSC had grounds to terminate his employment following his political nomination, it found the process flawed and procedurally unfair.
KNUT Secretary General Collins Oyuu
The ruling restored his status as a teacher, clearing the way for his participation in union elections.
Sossion, who led Knut from December 2013 to June 2021 before resigning to focus on his role as a nominated MP, says his comeback is driven by pressure from teachers.
Speaking during a radio interview, he claimed the union had lost its voice under current leadership.
“The clamour for me to go back to Knut is not my initiative. It is the initiative of teachers across Kenya because Oyuu and his group have reduced the union from a vibrant Marxist union to a silent social union that sees nothing, hears nothing and says nothing about teachers,” he said.
He added that he had initially stepped back, hoping for a government role, but teachers urged him to return.
“They’re telling me, ‘No, don’t wait for government. Come and do this one because we know you can do it well for us.’”
Sossion likened his return to the Biblical Moses responding to the cries of Israelites in Egypt.
“I have heard the cries of my teachers in Egypt and I will go back,” he said.
The Knut elections are scheduled to be held at the Tom Mboya Labour College in Kisumu on April 3, preceded by nominations at a special delegates conference a day earlier.
Sossion challenged Oyuu to organise a democratic election process and prepare to face him at the ballot during elections.
The elections will be through secret ballot by all delegates accredited to participate at either the Annual Delegates Conference or a Special Delegates Conference.
“I’m eligible. Oyuu should prepare for a democratic process and accept both our names on the ballot, or alternatively, because he is retired, step aside,” Sossion said.
He criticised what he termed a growing trend of retirees clinging to union leadership.
“We have a bad culture where retirees are running unions. That is wrong. They cannot speak for their grandchildren. I want to face a teacher under 60 on the ballot,” he added.
Sossion, 57, said he would not have contested if a younger teacher had stepped forward to challenge for the secretary general position.
According to Knut’s constitution, every full time officer of the union shall vacate office upon serving his full five-year term in office, age notwithstanding, but will not be eligible for re-election upon attainment of 65 years of age.
Oyuu was 56 when he took over Knut leadership from Sossion in June, 2021.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has so far registered 250,391 new voters since the launch of the Enhanced Continuous Voter Registration (ECVR) exercise.
Then exercise was launched on September 29, 2026.
Overall, Kenya’s total number of registered voters now stands at 22,352,923 as of 2026.
IEBC Commissioner Dr. Alutalala Mukhwana revealed on Citizen Tv the new registrations have largely been concentrated in urban and peri-urban areas, with Nairobi leading the pack.
Kiambu, Machakos, Nakuru and Mombasa counties follow closely, reflecting a trend where population density and access to services continue to shape voter turnout.
There is a drive for young voters to register.
The commissioner expressed concerns over the persistently low registration numbers in arid and semi-arid regions.
He spoke on a tv show.
He noted that counties such as Isiolo, Mandera and Tana River are lagging significantly, which he attributed to sparse populations, nomadic lifestyles driven by harsh climatic conditions, and systemic barriers in accessing identification documents.
“There are also the issues of do they get their ID cards in time? There are cases in Turkana, for example, where elderly people don’t have birth certificates, leave alone IDs,” he said.
“The youth engagement, as of today, remains low, but the overall percentage of the (newly registered) youth aged 35 and below stands at 32.65%. The 18-20 year olds are worst hit, we only have 67,888 of them.”
Dr. Mukhwana pointed to delays in acquiring national IDs after leaving school and a lack of civic awareness as key factors behind the low uptake among this age bracket.
He called for early civic education within schools to ensure young people are better prepared and motivated to register once they become eligible.
Of the newly registered voters, 50.9 per cent are male while 49.1 per cent are female, indicating a near gender balance.
In terms of county performance, Nairobi leads with 49,055 new voters, followed by Kiambu with 20,404. Together, Dr. Mukhwana revealed, the two counties account for 27 per cent of all new registrations.
Mombasa ranks third with 15,140, followed by Machakos (11,687); Nakuru (10,432); Kitui (9,401); Kisii (8,871); Kakamega (8,078); Meru (7,499); and Murang’a (7,267).
At the bottom of the scale, Isiolo has registered just 112 new voters, Tana River 241, Lamu 578, Elgeyo Marakwet 552 and Mandera 994, underscoring the stark regional disparities.
Dr. Mukhwana further noted that older voters dominate the new registrations, with those aged above 35 accounting for 67.35 per cent, compared to 32 per cent among younger voters.
The trend suggests that the momentum in voter registration is currently being driven more by middle-aged citizens than by first-time voters, raising questions about long-term electoral participation if youth engagement is not improved.
There is a campaign ongoing dubbed “Niko Kadi” aimed at attracting more young people to register.
The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier arrived at a port on a Greek island after leaving Middle East operations against Iran due to a laundry-area fire, but the vessel faces broader underlying problems, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.
The aircraft carrier arrived Monday at Crete’s Naval Support Activity Souda Bay for “maintenance and repairs following operations in the Red Sea,” the US Navy said Monday.
Earlier this month, a fire broke out aboard the carrier in its main laundry area, prompting a large damage control response.
US officials said the blaze was not combat-related and was contained, but reports said more than 600 sailors were displaced from their sleeping quarters.
Bloomberg reported that the concerns around the aircraft carrier range from the potentially grave to the mundane, according to a new assessment from the Pentagon testing office, with many issues surfacing after it started combat testing in October 2022.
The report cited concerns as there is not enough current test data to assess the carrier’s “operational suitability,” or the reliability of several key systems, including its jet launch and recovery system, its radar, its ability to keep operating if hit by enemy fire, and its elevators for moving weapons and munitions for warplanes from the hold to the flight deck.
A recent Pentagon testing assessment found that, nearly a decade after delivery, there is still insufficient data to determine the ship’s “operational effectiveness” under realistic combat conditions.
Key systems, including its advanced aircraft launch and recovery technology, radar and weapons elevators, remain under scrutiny, with questions about their reliability during sustained wartime use.
The aircraft carrier’s extended deployment has added to the strain. Originally deployed in June 2025, the carrier has spent roughly nine months at sea, significantly longer than the typical seven-month deployment, with operations spanning from the Caribbean, including missions related to Venezuela, to the Middle East.
Regional escalation has continued since the US and Israel launched a joint offensive on Iran on Feb. 28. Iranian authorities say over 1,300 people have been killed since the war began, along with senior leaders, including then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior official Ali Larijani.
Tehran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes targeting Israel, along with Jordan, Iraq, and Gulf countries hosting US military assets, causing casualties and damage to infrastructure while disrupting global markets and aviation.
The queues are back. The dry pumps are back. The excuses are back. And, if the evidence emerging from Kenya’s petroleum sector is any guide, so too is the corporate playbook that transformed a localized supply concern into a nationally orchestrated shakedown in 2022. This time, the architects of the crisis have cloaked their operation in the fog of war, invoking the Middle East conflict as justification for what is, at its core, a premeditated squeeze on the Kenyan consumer.
Mohammed Hersi, the immediate past chairman of the Kenya Tourism Federation and one of the country’s most credible private-sector voices on matters of economic governance, has had enough. In a statement that detonated across social media and industry boardrooms with equal force, Hersi posed the question that government regulators appear to lack the courage to ask: has any new shipment, purchased at the higher war-era prices, actually landed in Kenya? The answer, as EPRA’s own data confirms, is an unambiguous no. The logical conclusion from that fact is one that the industry’s lobby groups would rather the public did not dwell upon.
“You should punish Shell Vivo heavily if they are playing games,” Hersi stated, directing his sharpest fire at the company whose green-and-yellow livery dominates Nairobi’s street corners. Hersi’s target was deliberate. So is ours.
Screenshot
THE ARCHITECTURE OF A MANUFACTURED CRISIS
To understand what is happening in Kenya’s forecourts, one must first understand what is not happening in the Strait of Hormuz as far as Kenyan consumers are concerned.
The Iran conflict is real. Its disruption of global shipping is real. Crude oil prices, having hovered near USD 63 per barrel in February 2026, rocketed past USD 100 per barrel in the weeks following the military strikes of February 28.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply passes, is the most significant supply disruption the global energy market has witnessed in decades.
None of that justifies what is happening at Kenya’s pumps right now. None of it. And here is precisely why.
EPRA, in its March 14 price announcement, was admirably transparent about the data underlying its decision to freeze pump prices for the March 15 to April 14 cycle.
The regulator’s Director General, Daniel Kiptoo Bargoria, stated explicitly that the calculations were based on vessels received and discharged between February 10 and March 9, 2026. He then added the sentence that the industry does not want repeated: “Most of these vessels are February-priced cargoes and the effect of the situation in the Middle East has not had an effect on the prices yet.”
Read that sentence again. The fuel sitting in the tanks at Vivo’s Nairobi and Mombasa depots, the fuel that Rubis, TotalEnergies, Ola Energy and other marketers are rationing, was bought and imported at pre-war prices.
The conflict began on February 28. The bulk of Kenya’s March stock was already in transit or had already been discharged before that date. The “war premium” that Unepa chairperson Irene Kimathi is now screaming about does not apply to a single litre of fuel currently in the country. Charging Kenyans crisis prices on pre-crisis stock is not a market reality. It is profiteering.
Murban crude oil, Kenya’s pricing benchmark, stood at just USD 63.06 per barrel in February 2026, down sharply from USD 80.22 in March 2025. The exchange rate has held remarkably stable, with the shilling anchored near 129 to the dollar.
The EPRA price stabilization fund recorded a deficit on diesel of just Sh6.53 per litre and Sh6.66 on kerosene, figures well within manageable bounds before the war’s effects on new cargo manifested. The dealers are not bleeding money on current stock. They are sitting on inventory purchased at favorable prices while demanding that prices be reset to reflect a crisis that has not yet hit their balance sheets.
VIVO ENERGY: THE MARKET LEADER, THE LOUDEST SILENCE
In the Kenyan petroleum market, size confers power. Vivo Energy, the Vitol Group-owned operator of Shell-branded stations across 23 African countries, is the undisputed market leader in Kenya, controlling approximately 20 percent of the retail market by volume.
That dominance gives the company an outsized ability to shape supply conditions, pricing signals and public perception. It also gives the company an outsized responsibility that it is conspicuously failing to honour.
When fuel stations began running dry this week, the most affected outlets in Nairobi were, by multiple credible accounts, Shell-branded.
A spot check confirmed that the company’s outlet at Kipande House ran out of diesel on Monday morning, with petrol stocks expected to be depleted the same day.
Stations along Magadi Road and in Kiserian had been intermittently dry since the weekend. This was not an isolated malfunction at a single pump. It was a pattern.
Vivo Energy Kenya CEO Peter Murungi’s response to these developments was a masterclass in corporate deflection. High consumption over a long weekend, he said.
Supplies would be replenished. He was, he said, unaware of any fuel crisis. “I am not aware of any fuel crisis to be frank,” Mr Murungi told Business Daily. “It is just a long weekend with high consumption.”
This from the CEO of a company that, according to its own regulatory filings, is legally required to maintain minimum stocks of petrol and diesel lasting 20 and 25 days respectively.
This from the CEO of a company that, in April 2022, had executives summoned to the Directorate of Criminal Investigations to account for precisely this kind of market manipulation.
This from the CEO of a company whose parent group, Vitol, is one of the world’s largest independent energy traders, with the market intelligence to know exactly what is in its tanks, what is en route, and what the gap between purchase price and proposed selling price would yield on the order of millions of litres.
The silence of Vivo Energy in the face of mounting evidence of supply manipulation is not merely corporate caution. It is an insult to a country it has profited from for over a decade.
THE 2022 PRECEDENT: THIS SCRIPT HAS BEEN READ BEFORE
The most damning aspect of the current crisis is not that it is happening. It is that it has happened before, with the same actors, using the same methods, to the same effect. Those who forget their history, as the saying goes, are condemned to repeat it. Those who engineer their history are condemned by it.
In April 2022, Kenya was gripped by a fuel shortage that lasted three weeks. Motorists queued for hours. Diesel, critical for the transport sector that keeps food moving, was virtually impossible to find.
The Energy Cabinet Secretary at the time, Ambassador Monica Juma, stood outside the Kawi complex and called it what it was: economic sabotage. “We have been witness to an action that has distorted the market and supply chains, created artificial shortages, caused panic and anxiety, negatively affected productivity,” she said.
The government had the data to prove it. EPRA’s own stock records showed the country had over 212 million litres of petrol in strategic storage while forecourts were supposedly running dry. The fuel was there. It was simply not being moved.
The Directorate of Criminal Investigations was deployed.
Executives from ten oil marketing companies, including Vivo Energy, TotalEnergies, Ola Energy, Gapco Hass Petroleum, Petro Oil, Galana Oil, and Lake Oil Petroleum, were summoned and interrogated. The government invoked the Energy (Minimum Operational Stock) Regulations, 2008, which carry a penalty of two years in prison or a fine of up to Sh2 million.
The government invoked the Petroleum Act, which categorizes deliberate market manipulation as economic sabotage, a capital offence. The CEO of Rubis Energy Kenya, Jean-Christian Bergeron, was deported and had his work permit revoked.
What happened next is the most important lesson for 2026. Prices were reviewed upward. The “shortage” evaporated.
The fuel that had been invisible in Nairobi reappeared at filling stations across the country within days of the price hike.
There were no criminal convictions. There was no accountability. The playbook worked, and the industry knows it.
As Juma herself observed at the time, some marketers had even been diverting cargo earmarked for Kenya into the regional export market in Uganda, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, “to further enhance their abnormal profits.”
Fast forward to March 2026. Unepa’s Kimathi is using almost identical language to 2022, warning that prices are unsustainable and that dealers will halt sales.
Lawmaker Nelson Koech has publicly named “speculation, panic buying and hoarding, particularly hoarding by oil marketers in anticipation of a price jump” as the primary driver of current demand surges.
POAK chairman Martin Chomba has confirmed that dealers are likely to hold back stock in anticipation of a price hike.
The Petroleum PS, Mohamed Liban, delivered a statement during Koech’s live television interview confirming the government’s view: the shortages are primarily the result of hoarding, not genuine supply disruption.
The script is the same. The only question is whether the government’s response will also be the same, which is to say, toothless.
THE COMPENSATION SCANDAL: PAYING THE ARSONIST FOR FIGHTING THE FIRE
As if hoarding were not audacious enough, reports have now emerged that EPRA is considering a compensation mechanism for oil marketing companies, pegged at approximately Sh11 per litre on excess fuel volumes imported during the March pricing cycle.
The Consumers Federation of Kenya, COFEK, has fired a broadside at this proposal in a letter addressed directly to Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, and the federation’s concerns deserve to be treated as a matter of urgent national policy.
COFEK’s central argument is legally and morally sound: EPRA does not possess a compensatory mandate. Its role under the Petroleum Act 2019 is to regulate, not to subsidize.
By channeling public funds to oil marketing companies as a make-whole payment for inventory that was imported at pre-crisis prices, EPRA would effectively be converting a windfall opportunity for the companies into a taxpayer-funded guarantee. It would be rewarding behavior that the PS has already characterized as hoarding. It would be paying the arsonist to fight the fire they lit.
The optics are staggering.
Kenya is a country where the government is simultaneously asking ordinary citizens to absorb the cost of a housing levy, a social health insurance contribution, and a fuel levy of Sh7 per litre that MP Ndindi Nyoro has called deeply regressive.
Against that backdrop, the prospect of the regulator siphoning public money into the coffers of Vivo Energy, TotalEnergies, and Rubis is politically explosive and economically unconscionable.
THE REGIONAL REALITY: NOBODY ELSE IS BUYING THE STORY
The oil lobby’s argument that the war necessitates an immediate emergency price revision in Kenya collapses when measured against what is happening in the country’s immediate neighbors.
Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda all face the same global supply disruption.
All three are landlocked or near-landlocked economies heavily dependent on the same Indian Ocean shipping lanes through which Kenya’s fuel also passes. None of them have capitulated to the narrative that existing stock must be repriced at war-level rates.
In Tanzania, the Petroleum Bulk Procurement Agency has reported reserves of 230 million litres of petrol, sufficient for 38 days, and 180 million litres of diesel, sufficient for 47 days.
When accounting for incoming shipments already en route, Dar es Salaam’s effective cover extends to 78 days of petrol and 50 days of diesel.
The government has not entertained emergency price hikes on existing inventory. It has instead called a sectoral meeting, reviewed its supply chain, and communicated transparently with the public. Dar es Salaam is doing what Nairobi should be doing.
In Uganda, the government has gone further, publicly warning petroleum companies against what it has characterized as “superficial” pump price increases.
Kampala has maintained that immediate fuel supply remains secure and has made clear that it will not accept manipulation of market pricing on inventory purchased at pre-conflict rates.
That position, from a landlocked country that cannot even reach Mombasa without transiting Kenya, is a direct rebuke to the argument being made by Nairobi’s oil lobby.
The African fuel price survey for March 2026 presents a broader picture that is equally instructive. While the global average retail price per litre has nudged upward modestly to approximately USD 1.34, multiple African countries including Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda have avoided the dramatic spikes that the Kenyan oil lobby is now demanding. Some countries in the region have even recorded price declines.
The idea that Kenya alone must act immediately to protect oil marketer margins on pre-war stock is not a market argument. It is a negotiating position dressed up as one.
SHIPPING DATA: WHEN THE FACTS DON’T FIT THE NARRATIVE
The shipping data emerging from the Port of Mombasa is, admittedly, genuinely alarming, but not for the reasons the oil lobby would have you believe.
Reports indicate that of approximately 52 vessels expected at the port through early April, none is scheduled to carry petroleum products.
That is a real supply gap. It is a supply gap caused by the war, by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, by the rerouting of vessels to the longer Cape of Good Hope passage that adds weeks to transit times and significantly inflates freight costs.
This is the legitimate face of the crisis, and it is a crisis that Kenya will eventually have to confront with an honest price conversation.
But here is what the lobby groups refuse to acknowledge: that future crisis is not this present manufactured shortage.
The oil marketers are using a real, looming problem as cover for a present, self-created one.
The incoming supply disruption, which will genuinely affect cargoes purchased at post-war pricing, is being conflated with the current stock, purchased at pre-war pricing, to create the impression that an emergency price hike must happen now, on existing inventory, before the actual crisis materially arrives. It is a bait-and-switch of extraordinary cynicism.
It is also worth noting that the International Energy Agency, which has characterized the current situation as the greatest energy security challenge in its history, has coordinated the release of nearly 400 million barrels of emergency crude from member country reserves specifically to stabilize global prices.
That intervention is designed to moderate precisely the kind of price shock that the Kenyan oil industry is trying to pass on to the consumer in unmodified form. Kenya may not be an IEA member, but the stabilizing effect of that release on global markets benefits Kenyan importers whether they acknowledge it or not.
KENYA’S STRATEGIC VULNERABILITY: THE STRUCTURAL PROBLEM NOBODY WANTS TO SOLVE
The current crisis exposes a structural weakness in Kenya’s energy security architecture that has been talked about, reported on, and ignored for years. Kenya’s legal framework requires oil marketing companies to maintain operational stocks of 20 days of petrol and 25 days of diesel.
In practice, most marketers maintain reserves of between 15 and 18 days, leaving the country dangerously exposed to any disruption lasting more than a fortnight.
The National Oil Corporation, which holds the statutory mandate to maintain 90-day strategic reserves, has been financially paralyzed for years and holds virtually nothing of consequence.
This is not a regulatory accident. It is a regulatory failure that is structurally advantageous to the major oil marketing companies. Thin strategic reserves create scarcity conditions faster, scarcity conditions justify price hikes faster, and faster price hikes on existing stock translate directly into windfall margins. If Kenya held 90-day strategic reserves as international standards require, no oil marketer could manufacture a shortage in the space of a weekend.
The structural failure is, in a very meaningful sense, the business model.
By comparison, Tanzania’s PBPA centralized procurement model has delivered buffers exceeding 47 days on diesel without emergency measures. Uganda has maintained functional reserves.
Both countries are poorer than Kenya on a per capita basis. The difference is not resources. It is political will and regulatory courage.
THE TOURISM SECTOR PAYS THE PRICE. AGAIN.
Mohammed Hersi’s fury is not merely the outrage of a Twitter commentator. It is the anguish of an industry that depends on cheap, reliable fuel in ways that the petroleum boardrooms prefer not to contemplate.
Tourism is, by the Tourism Research Institute’s own data, Kenya’s second-largest source of foreign exchange after diaspora remittances, contributing over 10 percent of GDP.
It is an industry built on game drives, bush flights, airport transfers, generator-dependent lodges and cold chains that cannot afford interruption.
Hersi has watched the cost of fuel rise by over 70 percent in the two years preceding this latest crisis. His contracts with tour operators, signed months or years in advance, leave him exposed when input costs shift suddenly.
Every artificial shortage, every manufactured price hike, every weekend of rationed diesel is a cost that tourism operators cannot pass on in real time. It is a cost absorbed by the margins of businesses that already operate under intense competitive pressure from regional destinations.
It is a tax on Kenya’s ability to position itself as a world-class destination, levied not by the government but by oil marketers in pursuit of abnormal profits.
Hersi’s call to “punish Shell Vivo heavily” is therefore not irrational anger. It is the rational demand of a sector participant who has run out of patience with a recurring pattern of market manipulation that inflicts disproportionate harm on businesses that cannot hedge, cannot diversify their energy sources overnight, and cannot wait for regulatory courage to materialize at the pace of bureaucratic comfort.
WHAT THE LAW ACTUALLY SAYS, AND WHAT MUST NOW HAPPEN
Kenya is not without legal tools.
The Energy Act 2019 grants EPRA sweeping powers to investigate, sanction, and where warranted, revoke the licenses of companies found to be in breach of minimum stock requirements or found to be manipulating supply. Section 99 of the Petroleum Act explicitly prohibits the sale of fuel above regulated maximum prices. Show-cause letters were issued in 2022.
Deportations were ordered in 2022. The apparatus of enforcement exists. It has simply not been applied with sufficient consistency to create a deterrent.
Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has assured the public that Kenya holds adequate reserves and that supply is secure.
If that assurance is accurate, and the government’s own data suggests it is, then the shortages being reported at filling stations across Nairobi, Eldoret, Kitale, and rural areas of the North Rift are not a supply problem.
They are a conduct problem. They are the product of deliberate decisions by oil marketing companies to withhold product from the retail market in anticipation of a price hike. That is the definition of economic sabotage under Kenyan law. It should be prosecuted as such.
EPRA must not compensate oil marketing companies for existing stock. That proposal should be withdrawn immediately. What EPRA must do, instead, is dispatch inspection teams to the bulk storage depots of every major oil marketer in the country, cross-reference actual stock levels against EPRA’s own data, and prosecute every company found to be holding stock below the required minimum while simultaneously withholding product from the retail market. The law is clear. The mandate is clear. The only thing that is unclear is whether the regulator has the political backing to use it.
Wandayi must make that backing explicit, in public, and today. CS Monica Juma did it in 2022. It worked. The fuel appeared. The lesson is available. The question is whether this government has the stomach to apply it.
CONCLUSION: THE NATION IS WATCHING
Kenya stands at a precipice whose contours should by now be familiar. The oil cartel is running the same play it ran in 2022. The lobby groups are using the same language. The Vivo pumps are running the same dry-station theater.
The government is issuing the same assurances of adequate supply while the industry ignores them. The difference in 2026 is that the public has a longer memory, a shorter tolerance for corporate impunity, and a louder platform from which to demand accountability.
The fuel in Kenya’s tanks was bought at prices that reflect a world before February 28, 2026. Selling it at prices that reflect a world after February 28, 2026, is not market economics. It is extraction.
It is a transfer of wealth from Kenyan consumers and businesses to the balance sheets of multinational petroleum corporations that have, in the case of at least one company, faced criminal investigation in this country for doing precisely this before and suffered no lasting consequence.
Mohammed Hersi is right. The punishment must fit the crime. And the crime, if the evidence leads where it appears to lead, is economic sabotage, not a market adjustment. EPRA has the law. The government has the mandate.
The public has the patience of a country that is watching very closely. The only remaining question is whether the “thugs in suits” will be held to account this time, or whether they will once again be rewarded with an upward price review and walk away with the country’s money in their pockets.
The Consumer Federation of Kenya has formally petitioned the Central Bank of Kenya to launch an immediate forensic audit into the explosive financial turnaround of Sidian Bank, a mid-tier commercial lender whose net profit surged 502 per cent to Sh1.73 billion in the year ended December 31, 2025, from Sh287 million in the prior year.
In a written petition to the banking regulator, Cofek secretary general Stephen Mutoro described the bank’s ascent as one that bore the hallmarks of political capture rather than organic market competition, and called on the CBK to determine whether the allocation of billions of shillings in public sector deposits to a relatively obscure institution had followed due process under Kenya’s public finance management laws.
“What we are witnessing is not a turnaround story. It is the capture of public resources by a politically connected institution,” Mr Mutoro said in an interview.
“Taxpayer money parked in county governments, the Social Health Authority, the National Social Security Fund, and the housing levy is being used to inflate the balance sheet of a bank that should be lending to small businesses but is instead hoarding government securities. The Central Bank must act before this becomes a full-blown scandal.”
The petition places Sidian at the centre of a growing national debate about the relationship between political power and the allocation of public sector banking mandates in Kenya, a conversation that has already drawn scrutiny from the Senate, the High Court, and from as senior a figure as former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who alleged in a televised interview in February 2025 that a senior state official had strong-armed public institutions to channel funds into a favoured bank.
Gachagua declined to name the institution, but the breadcrumbs left by the subsequent cascade of public sector mandates won by Sidian led many analysts and commentators to draw their own conclusions.
The Numbers That Shocked the Market
Sidian Bank’s financial disclosures for 2025 read less like the results of a small commercial lender and more like the sudden materialisation of a systemic shift in the Kenyan banking landscape.
Customer deposits surged 63 per cent to Sh72.3 billion over the course of the year, nearly tripling the Sh27.6 billion the bank held at the end of 2023 and catapulting it from the lower end of the Tier 3 bracket to a position where it commanded 1.83 per cent of total industry deposits by September 2025. Total assets grew 51 per cent to Sh90.8 billion.
Net interest income rose 54.4 per cent to Sh4.4 billion, while non-interest income surged 129 per cent to Sh3.8 billion.
Within that latter figure lies one of the most striking and unexplained items in the bank’s published results: a line described as “other income” that vaulted from Sh188.76 million to Sh2.09 billion, an elevenfold increase that constituted 55 per cent of total non-interest income for the year.
The bank has not disclosed the composition of this item in its published financial extracts, a silence that Mr Mutoro said the CBK should require it to explain.
Equally striking is what the deposit bonanza did not produce.
Despite customer deposits nearly doubling, Sidian’s loan book expanded by only 10.7 per cent to Sh27.5 billion.
The bulk of the new public sector money was channelled instead into Treasury bills and government bonds, a portfolio that rose to Sh48.6 billion by the end of September 2025, up from Sh19.3 billion a year earlier.
The bank was, in effect, borrowing at low or zero cost from the state and lending straight back to the state at sovereign rates, generating a virtually risk-free spread that accounts for the lion’s share of its profit surge.
“The bank is effectively trading on the idle deposits of public agencies to generate risk-free returns,” Mr Mutoro said.
“It is not fulfilling its mandate to SMEs. It is not creating credit. It is simply arbitraging the gap between what it pays on deposits, if it pays anything at all, and what it earns from government securities. That is not banking. That is rent-seeking enabled by political connections.”
The Architecture of Public Sector Capture
The mechanics of Sidian’s transformation are traceable to a series of public sector mandates that began accumulating from late 2023 and accelerated sharply in 2024 and 2025.
The pattern reveals a lender that progressed systematically through the constellation of state institutions, winning mandates from a succession of parastatals whose combined deposits provided the raw material for an unprecedented balance sheet expansion.
The most significant single mandate came from the National Social Security Fund. In the financial year ended June 30, 2024, the NSSF designated Sidian Bank as the recipient of Sh800 million in fixed deposits, its single largest placement with any bank that year.
The allocation was all the more remarkable given that Sidian had received zero from the pension fund in any prior year, and that the NSSF simultaneously slashed its total fixed deposit portfolio by more than 75 per cent compared to the previous year, from Sh10.8 billion to Sh2.6 billion.
Even as the fund shrank its overall exposure to term deposits, it concentrated more than a third of what remained in a bank with which it had no prior relationship.
The Social Health Authority, launched in October 2024 as the replacement for the defunct National Hospital Insurance Fund, designated Sidian as one of only six authorised collection agents for SHIF contributions, placing the bank in the same category as KCB, Co-operative Bank, Absa, Equity, and Diamond Trust Bank, lenders whose assets and deposit bases dwarfed Sidian’s at the time of the appointment.
The bank was simultaneously authorised to receive housing levy deductions from employers across Kenya, a stream of statutory payments that flows monthly from the payroll of every formal sector worker in the country.
The Nairobi County Government delivered the most visible and politically charged mandate in November 2025, when County Secretary Godfrey Akumali issued a circular on October 28 directing the chief executive officers of all county health facilities to close their accounts at Co-operative Bank, a Tier 1 institution with a long and stable track record in public sector banking, and reopen them at Sidian.
The directive followed a resolution passed at the 69th meeting of the Nairobi County Executive Committee, and was to take effect by November 7, 2025, giving health facility managers nine days to execute one of the most consequential banking switches in the history of Nairobi county government.
Senator Edwin Sifuna, Nairobi’s ODM senator, was unsparing in his assessment of the directive. “The health facilities in Nairobi have been banking with Co-operative Bank, a tier-one bank with a solid history and reputation,” he said in a letter to Governor Johnson Sakaja dated November 12.
“How you wake up one day and direct all of them to move to a tier-three bank cannot be explained any other way than corruption at play.”
Governor Sakaja appeared before the Senate Committee on Devolution and Intergovernmental Relations on November 24 to defend the decision.
He said the previous bank had delayed salary processing for county health workers, that its interest rates were unfavourable, and that Sidian had presented the best commercial offer in a competitive process. “Sidian had a cheaper interest rate and gave us a better offer. It is a good deal. We invited many banks, and Sidian presented the best package. As for ownership, every bank has owners, but what matters is good service,” the governor told the committee.
Senator Richard Onyonka pressed Sakaja directly on whether the bank’s ownership structure had influenced the decision, a question the governor declined to answer with specificity.
The committee did not receive documentation of the competitive process or comparative offers from other banks.
The relationship between Nairobi County and Sidian has since deepened further.
Documents tabled before the Nairobi City County Assembly budget committee reveal that the county is pursuing a memorandum of understanding with the bank that would place Sidian at the heart of Nairobi’s revenue collection architecture, managing billions in annual inflows from parking fees, business permits, and land rates.
The proposed arrangement would also cover the management of the Facility Improvement Fund for county hospitals and donor funds. The budget committee’s report was silent on the fee structure, raising questions about the cost to the county government that its members have noted remain unanswered.
The Shareholders and Their Connections
The story of Sidian’s ownership transformation is inseparable from the story of its deposit bonanza. Centum Investment Company, which had held a majority stake in the bank through its subsidiary Bakki Holdco since 2015, began divesting in October 2023 after a planned Sh4.3 billion sale to Nigeria’s Access Bank collapsed in January of that year.
The piecemeal divestiture that followed introduced an entirely new group of shareholders whose identities and connections have drawn sustained public interest.
The largest individual block in the bank is now held by Wizpro Enterprises Limited, a company incorporated in September 2017 with Solomon Muriithi Maina as its sole director and shareholder.
Wizpro holds 24.95 per cent of Sidian’s issued share capital. Mr Maina is the chairman of KTDA Management Services Limited, the firm that manages the affairs of the Kenya Tea Development Agency, one of the most powerful agricultural institutions in the country and an entity whose patronage networks extend deep into tea-growing communities in the Mount Kenya region, a political heartland of President William Ruto.
The second-largest block, at 24.36 per cent, is held by Afram Limited, a company registered in July 2016 and controlled by a single director and shareholder, James Maina Muthoni.
Pioneer General Insurance Limited holds 16.89 per cent, with its UAE-based shareholders, including Abcon International LLC, Parkview Investments Limited, and Medillon Trading FZE, providing international capital to the consortium.
Former Ugandan Attorney-General William Byaruhanga, a close confidant of President Yoweri Museveni and a major real estate investor in Kampala, holds 14.63 per cent through Kenbe Investments, a vehicle he built by acquiring 50 per cent of Centum’s Bakki Holdco in May 2024 for Sh1.032 billion.
Telesec Africa, which had previously been owned by Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro before he transferred ownership to John Mbugua Maina in 2020, holds 3.47 per cent.
Centum completed the sale of its final remaining 13.6 per cent interest in Sidian on March 12, 2026, closing a 22-year investment that began when the bank operated as K-Rep Bank.
Total cash recoveries by Centum across all transactions now stand at approximately Sh5.2 billion against an original investment of Sh4.7 billion, a modest nominal return that the investment firm acknowledged was likely negative in real terms across the full holding period.
The board was overhauled in October 2025, when former Cabinet Secretary James Macharia was named chairman, succeeding Centum’s James Mworia. Mr Macharia, who served as Cabinet Secretary for Health and later for Transport and Infrastructure under President Uhuru Kenyatta before leaving government in 2022, had previously been Group Managing Director of NIC Bank, where he had worked alongside Chief Executive Chege Thumbi, who now leads Sidian.
Mr Mutoro said the accumulation of politically connected shareholders and the board appointment of a former senior state official, followed immediately by an unprecedented flood of public sector deposits, represented a pattern that regulators could not afford to ignore.
“This is not a bank that grew by competing in the marketplace,” he said. “It grew by winning state business through connections. The question the CBK must answer is whether the threshold for being classified as a Tier 2 bank was met through prudent banking or through executive fiat.”
Reclassification Achieved Three Years Ahead of Schedule
The Central Bank of Kenya formally reclassified Sidian from Tier 3 to Tier 2 in September 2025, after the bank’s deposit market share crossed the 1 per cent threshold for the first time.
At the time of reclassification, Sidian’s deposits represented 1.83 per cent of all customer deposits in the Kenyan banking system, up from 0.7 per cent at the start of the year. Its asset base of Sh94.8 billion constituted 1.2 per cent of the industry.
The reclassification came three years ahead of the schedule that Sidian’s management had originally set when presenting the new ownership’s strategic plan to shareholders.
The bank had targeted mid-tier status by 2028. That a goal intended to take five years was achieved in less than twenty-four months of the new ownership taking control has astonished analysts who track the Kenyan banking sector.
No other Kenyan lender has grown deposits by 162 per cent in two years while simultaneously vaulting from Tier 3 to Tier 2 and delivering a sixfold profit jump.
“When a bank grows this fast, this suddenly, and entirely on the back of public sector cash, you have to ask whether the risk management frameworks are adequate, whether the governance structures are sound, and whether the allocation of public deposits followed due process,” Mr Mutoro said.
“The CBK’s own prudential guidelines are premised on the assumption that growth of this nature emerges from competitive market dynamics. When it emerges from politically allocated state mandates, the supervisory calculus is entirely different.”
The Loan Book That Did Not Grow
For a bank whose founding mission was to provide financial services to small and medium enterprises, the divergence between deposit growth and lending growth in 2025 represents a fundamental departure from its stated purpose.
Sidian was established in 1984 as K-Rep Bank by Kimanthi Mutua under the Kenya Rural Enterprise Program, a project designed explicitly to channel credit to informal sector traders and microenterprise owners who were excluded from mainstream commercial banking.
Forty years later, the bank’s deposit base has nearly tripled in twenty-four months. Its loan book, by contrast, grew by only 10.7 per cent in the full year to December 2025.
At the nine-month mark in September, the loan book was effectively flat at Sh25.1 billion, a situation that chief executive Chege Thumbi attributed to the sluggish economy. “As the economy picks up, in line with our mission to empower the entrepreneurs, we expect the loan book to grow in months ahead,” he said in November 2025.
Interest income from loans and advances actually fell 4.9 per cent to Sh4.48 billion in 2025 despite the nominal increase in the net loan balance, suggesting tighter yields on the existing portfolio.
The gap was more than covered by the explosion in government securities income.
The bank’s holdings of Treasury bills and bonds nearly doubled over the course of the year, with the stock reaching Sh48.6 billion by the end of September, generating Sh3 billion in earnings from government paper in the nine-month period alone, up 134.7 per cent from Sh1.3 billion a year earlier.
The bank’s base lending rate stands at 16 per cent, a level that consumer advocates say remains punitive for the SMEs it claims to serve, particularly when the deposit base from which it funds that lending consists in large part of public sector funds earning minimal interest.
The bank’s cost of funds remained suppressed at Sh3 billion in nine months despite the deposit base nearly doubling, a statistic that reflects the low or zero cost of public sector deposits relative to the market rates that commercial deposits attract.
Bunge La Mwananchi Petitions the High Court
The consumer lobby’s petition to the CBK is not the only legal challenge Sidian’s relationship with the state has attracted. Civil rights group Bunge La Mwananchi, together with activists Lawrence Oyugi and Komrade Bush, petitioned the High Court in November 2025, arguing that Nairobi County’s directive to move public health facility accounts to Sidian breached multiple constitutional provisions.
The petition named the Nairobi City County Government, the County Executive Committee Member for Finance and Economic Planning, the acting County Secretary, and the Attorney-General as respondents, citing Articles 10, 35, 43, 201, 227, and 232 of the Constitution, provisions relating to public participation, access to information, social and economic rights, and integrity in public service.
The petition remains before the court. Sidian Bank maintained in its public statements around the SHA controversy that it “only facilitates collections, remitting directly to SHA accounts” and does not hold or manage the funds collected on behalf of the authority.
The distinction, while legally significant, has done little to quieten concerns about the accumulation of public money in a lender whose governance and ownership have become, in the perception of critics, intertwined with political power.
Capital Injections and the Empire Being Built
Sidian’s shareholders have not been passive beneficiaries of the deposit windfall. They have been active participants in capitalising the bank to handle the growth.
A Sh3 billion rights issue was completed in the year, with chief executive Chege Thumbi confirming in November 2025 that the final Sh580 million tranche had been received and was awaiting allotment.
This followed an earlier Sh3 billion capital injection, meaning shareholders have collectively deployed at least Sh6 billion in fresh equity since the new ownership consortium took control in late 2023.
The bank’s shareholders’ funds grew 41.1 per cent to Sh9.72 billion in 2025, bolstered by retained earnings of Sh2.33 billion alongside the rights issue proceeds.
Core capital stood at approximately Sh6.8 billion as of September 2025, above the CBK’s new minimum of Sh3 billion, the interim threshold that ten other Kenyan banks failed to meet by year-end.
Despite the record profitability, no dividend was declared for 2025, with retained earnings directed toward balance sheet expansion.
Mr Thumbi confirmed in November that the bank was in discussions with shareholders about raising an additional Sh3 billion in new capital.
“The shareholders are building an empire on the back of the taxpayer,” Mr Mutoro said.
“The question is whether this empire is being built in compliance with banking laws and prudential guidelines, or whether it is being built through the selective allocation of state business to politically connected individuals. The CBK has a duty to find out.”
Expansion Plans and Branch Growth
Alongside the financial engineering, Sidian has been pursuing a physical expansion that has accelerated sharply since the new ownership took control.
The bank opened its 47th branch in Bomet Town in April 2025, part of a stated plan to expand from its current footprint to more than 100 locations, a trajectory that management has linked to its SACCO partnerships, which now number more than 120 institutions across Kenya.
The expansion is being funded by the capital raised through successive rights issues and by the retained earnings generated by the government securities strategy.
The appointment of James Macharia as chairman in October 2025 was widely interpreted by market observers as a signal that the bank intended to shift its lending strategy toward larger corporate and institutional mandates, drawing on his experience at NIC Bank, where he oversaw the lender’s expansion into Tanzania and Uganda.
The board’s composition, now featuring an economics professor, a global accounting firm partner, and a former Cabinet Secretary with extensive public sector connections, reflects an institution positioning itself for a qualitatively different tier of business.
Regulators Silent, Opposition Intensifies
The Central Bank of Kenya did not respond to requests for comment on whether it intended to act on Cofek’s petition.
The NSSF did not respond to queries about why it shifted the bulk of its 2024 term deposits to Sidian, a bank with which it had no prior relationship, at a time when it was simultaneously cutting its overall term deposit exposure by more than three-quarters.
The Social Health Authority has maintained that its selection of collection agents followed consultations with employers about preferred payment channels. Nairobi County has stood by Governor Sakaja’s assertion that the bank selection followed a competitive process in which Sidian offered the most favourable terms.
Mr Mutoro said Cofek would pursue the matter through parliamentary oversight channels if the CBK failed to act on the petition. He said the organisation was in contact with members of the National Assembly’s Finance and National Planning Committee, as well as with senators who had already raised questions about the Nairobi County mandate.
“We are not making accusations without evidence. The evidence is in the bank’s own financial statements and in the public procurement records,” he said. “What we are asking for is an independent, transparent inquiry into how a small bank with a marginal market share became the preferred repository for billions in public money in the span of two years.”
Sidian Bank declined to comment on Mr Mutoro’s call for a CBK investigation.
A source close to the bank, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described Cofek’s allegations as unfounded and motivated by political considerations, without elaborating on what those considerations might be.
What Regulatory Standards Require
The Banking Act and the CBK’s prudential guidelines impose specific obligations on the regulator when a bank undergoes growth of the magnitude Sidian has experienced.
The guidelines on liquidity risk management require institutions to stress-test their funding structures against scenarios in which large institutional depositors withdraw funds simultaneously, a risk that is acutely relevant for a bank whose deposit base has tripled on the back of a small number of state-linked relationships.
The concentration risk provisions further require banks to monitor and limit excessive dependence on single depositors or categories of depositors.
Sidian’s liquidity ratio, at 69 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, was well above the 20 per cent regulatory minimum, suggesting the bank was managing the excess liquidity through its government securities strategy rather than extending credit.
The core capital adequacy ratio of 12.4 per cent against a minimum of 10.5 per cent indicated the bank remained within prudential bounds.
But the question Mr Mutoro and other critics are raising is not whether Sidian is presently solvent.
It is whether the process by which public funds were allocated to it was transparent, competitive, and consistent with the Public Finance Management Act’s requirements for the banking of public money.
SIDIAN BANK: KEY FINANCIAL INDICATORS 2025
Net profit: Sh1.73 billion (up 502% from Sh287 million in 2024)
Total assets: Sh90.8 billion (up 51% from Sh60.2 billion)
Customer deposits: Sh72.3 billion (up 63% from Sh44.38 billion)
Net loans and advances: Sh27.53 billion (up 10.8%)
Government securities portfolio: Sh48.6 billion (September 2025)
Net interest income: Sh4.43 billion (up 54.6%)
Non-interest income: Sh3.8 billion (up 129%)
Shareholders’ funds: Sh9.72 billion (up 41.1%)
CBK classification: Tier 2 (reclassified from Tier 3 in September 2025)
Branch network: 47 branches (target: 100+)
SIDIAN BANK: PRINCIPAL SHAREHOLDERS (as at March 2026)
A freshly dug grave in the red soil of Kositei, Tiaty, received the body of 13-year-old Bill Lorupe Ballot Kassait on Monday, March 23, 2026. But it was not grief alone that hung over those hills in Baringo County. It was fury. And that fury, directed squarely at Gertrude’s Children’s Hospital in Muthaiga, came from the boy’s father — outspoken Tiaty Member of Parliament William Kamket — in a graveside declaration that has since exploded into national controversy.
Standing before a crowd of mourners, MPs and church choirs dressed in white at the requiem mass, a visibly shaken Kamket said what many grieving Kenyan parents have felt but rarely had the platform or the political capital to say aloud.
He accused the hospital of administering medication to his son before conducting proper diagnostic tests, of failing to carry out a critical chest X-ray in a timely manner, and of allowing a window of clinical inaction during which the boy’s condition likely became irreversible. “Doctors are being careless; it has become a business, not treatment,” the legislator declared. “I will talk with regulators. I will talk with the government.”
His son, known affectionately as Ballot, died at approximately 8 a.m. on Tuesday, March 17, 2026, reportedly from pneumonia complications — a diagnosis that Kamket says should have been identified far sooner. Bill had a documented history of asthma, a condition that renders pneumonia particularly lethal, and had reportedly developed breathing difficulties over the previous weekend before being admitted to Gertrude’s flagship Muthaiga facility.
The MP’s wife, Kenya’s inaugural Data Protection Commissioner Immaculate Kassait, spoke at a separate memorial held at the Shrine of Mary Help of Christians at Don Bosco Catholic Church in Upper Hill. Her account added devastating emotional context to her husband’s clinical accusations.
As the boy was being wheeled into the intensive care unit, his last words to his mother were: “Mum, I love you.” The day before he died, she said, he had asked her: “Mum, will I make it? Mum, am I dying?” She found herself unable to answer. Within hours, she no longer had to.
“That Is My Question As Parents Here In Gertrude’s Hospital”
In his roughly three-minute graveside speech, Kamket posed a pointed question that has since circulated widely on social media: “Why did it take so long for an X-ray to be conducted?” He claimed that while a chest X-ray was purportedly completed at 9 a.m., the results were not acted upon promptly, a delay he believes cost his son his life.
Kamket further alleged that doctors began administering treatment before basic tests had been run — a practice that, he argued, amounted to diagnostic recklessness in a child presenting with respiratory distress and a pre-existing asthma history. “Be very careful,” he told the mourners, many of them Nairobi parents who had made the journey to Tiaty for the burial. “There are a lot of parents here in Nairobi and I am talking from the worst experience.”
He pledged to escalate the matter to Parliament and to engage health regulators, vowing to speak on behalf of those who “cannot and are suffering in silence.” The implicit acknowledgement was sharp: only his public stature ensured his complaint would receive a hearing that thousands of Kenyan families never get.
National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, who was present at the burial and conveyed condolences from President William Ruto, pledged to dedicate one sitting hour when Parliament resumed to eulogise the boy. As of press time, Gertrude’s Children’s Hospital had issued no public response to the specific allegations raised by Kamket. An earlier report noted the facility denied claims that it had detained the boy’s body over unpaid bills before repatriation.
Bill Ballot Kassait was born in August 2011, during the period his mother was serving at the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission overseeing voter registration — hence his middle name, a tribute to democracy. His siblings described him as the youngest of them all but with the biggest presence. Teachers at the Aga Khan Academy, where he studied, remembered a dedicated student with a passion for the Japanese language and a faith-rooted confidence that drew peers and teachers alike to him. He was 13 years old.
A Hospital With a History: Past Negligence Accusations At Gertrude’s
Kamket’s accusations do not fall into a vacuum. Gertrude’s Children’s Hospital, established in 1947 and widely marketed as the most established paediatric facility in Eastern and Central Africa — the first in Sub-Saharan Africa to earn accreditation from the United States-based Joint Commission International — has in fact accumulated a significant legal and disciplinary record that the hospital’s polished branding has consistently obscured.
The most striking precedent dates to 2008, when a 10-year-old named Master Leroy Rapenda Odundo was first taken to the Othaya Road clinic of Gertrude’s Children’s Hospital following a trip to Siaya County, where malaria is endemic. Leroy was subsequently admitted to the hospital’s Muthaiga flagship. His condition worsened during his stay; he was eventually transferred to Aga Khan Hospital on September 6, 2008, where he died. What followed was a protracted disciplinary saga that dragged the hospital by name before the Medical Practitioners and Dentists Board Tribunal.
The tribunal found Gertrude’s Children’s Hospital guilty and ordered the institution to put in place proper systems, including the employment of an adequate number of specialist paediatricians available on a 24-hour call-cover basis. A senior doctor at the hospital was found to have put in place “inappropriate systems of work” that contributed to the child’s death. Among the disturbing facts that emerged at the proceedings was evidence that quinine, a key malaria treatment drug, was not available at Gertrude’s during the earlier period of Leroy’s treatment.
The tribunal’s indictment of the hospital, however, was later overturned on appeal by the High Court, which found that the proceedings against Gertrude’s as an institution were procedurally defective because the hospital had not been formally charged nor given the opportunity to appear and defend itself. Critically, the High Court’s intervention was on grounds of procedural fairness, not a finding that no negligence occurred. The civil suit filed by Leroy’s father, James Odundo, against both the doctor and Gertrude’s, proceeded separately and turned on the same factual claims.
In a further negligence-adjacent matter, the Kenya Law database reflects an appeal filed in 2019 — Amadiva v Gertrude’s Children’s Hospital and Two Others (Civil Appeal 177 of 2019) — in which a complainant sought to pursue claims against the hospital. The appeal was dismissed for want of prosecution by 2025, not on its merits, after the applicant failed to advance it despite the passage of six years, a pattern that lawyers who represent patients in negligence claims say is distressingly common. Families run out of money, will, or legal support long before institutions with deep pockets and experienced legal teams exhaust their options.
Online reviews and consumer feedback platforms also paint a picture inconsistent with Gertrude’s international accreditation.
Multiple parents have described alarming encounters with clinical errors at its satellite facilities. One account described a six-month-old baby being prescribed five medicines after a visit, three of which contained allergens that the parent had flagged on every prior hospital visit. When the infant broke out in a severe rash and the parent returned for a review, a different doctor at the facility proposed a hydrocortisone injection at double the medically recommended dose for the child’s age. At the hospital’s Nairobi West branch, reviewers have cited waits of over an hour for emergency consultations involving children with actively bleeding injuries. Such accounts are anecdotal, but they accumulate.
The Broader Collapse: Kenya’s Medical Negligence Crisis
What the Kamket case has ignited is a deeper and more disturbing national conversation about whether Kenya’s private healthcare sector has made accountability structurally impossible for ordinary families. As a legislator married to the country’s Data Commissioner, William Kamket possesses social and political capital that most Kenyan parents never will. His graveside speech reached millions within hours. For the grieving mother in Kisumu whose child died after a misdiagnosed respiratory infection, or the father in Mombasa fighting a hospital over a botched surgical procedure, the path to justice is profoundly different.
Kenya’s courts have in recent years seen a sharp increase in medical negligence litigation, with landmark awards signalling a judiciary increasingly willing to hold health institutions to account.
In June 2025, the High Court awarded Naila Qureshi Ksh157 million in a negligence case against Aga Khan University Hospital, in a ruling that established critical new standards for informed consent and institutional accountability in Kenya. In December 2025, the High Court ordered Ladnan Hospital to pay Sh3 million to a woman whose ovaries were removed without her consent during a separate procedure, in a ruling that legal advocates described as a watershed for patient rights.
The court found that performing surgery beyond the scope of a patient’s consent violates foundational principles of Kenyan medical ethics and constitutional rights to dignity.
The Kenya Medical Practitioners and Dentists Board has, since 1997, received at least 985 recorded complaints of medical negligence — a figure analysts believe represents a fraction of actual incidents, as the majority of families never file a formal complaint, lack knowledge of their rights, or cannot afford the years-long legal battle that follows.
In February 2025, a High Court judge called on the Attorney-General, the Kenya Law Reform Commission, and the Health Principal Secretary to urgently review the Medical Practitioners and Dentists Act after finding it structurally incapable of disciplining hospitals as institutions. The judge noted that many patients had died in the custody and care of hospitals that could not be formally disciplined under existing law, because the Act’s provisions applied primarily to individual practitioners rather than institutional actors.
That legislative gap is precisely the architecture that has shielded institutions like Gertrude’s from sustained accountability in the past. The Quality Healthcare and Patient Safety Bill 2025, currently before Parliament, proposes fines of up to Ksh50 million and jail terms of up to 10 years for gross negligence, but it remains the subject of fierce opposition from medical professional unions who argue it concentrates regulatory power in ways that threaten both clinical independence and patient safety.
What Kamket’s Fight Could Mean
The MP’s threat to take this to Parliament is not idle bluster. He serves as vice-chair of the National Assembly’s Justice and Legal Affairs Committee, placing him strategically within striking distance of the legislative levers that govern health regulation. His political proximity to the Ruto administration, having aligned himself with Kenya Kwanza after years on the Azimio side, also gives him access to executive ear that opposition figures routinely lack.
Should Kamket follow through on his pledges and trigger a parliamentary inquiry into clinical standards at Gertrude’s, it would be the most significant political scrutiny the institution has faced in its 78-year history. The hospital’s JCI accreditation and its status as a not-for-profit institution have long insulated it from the kind of reputational damage that profit-driven hospitals face. An MP-driven investigation, especially one backed by the emotional gravity of a child’s death, could crack that insulation in ways no previous legal case has managed.
For the moment, the story remains unresolved at almost every level. No independent medical review of Bill Ballot Kassait’s treatment has been publicly announced. The Kenya Medical Practitioners and Dentists Board has not confirmed whether a complaint has been lodged. Gertrude’s Children’s Hospital has said nothing. And in Kositei, the family is still burying a child who, by his siblings’ account, was the youngest of them but carried the biggest presence. His older brother, assigned as his guardian after finishing high school, had been tasked with driving Bill to school and to hospital. He found himself doing the latter for the last time on the morning of March 17, 2026.
As the political and regulatory battle begins to take shape, one question posed at the graveside by a grieving father remains unanswered: why did it take so long?
The most dangerous revelation to emerge from the arrest of former Cabinet Secretary Raphael Tuju on Monday was not that the DCI believes he faked his own disappearance.
It was the casual, almost incidental manner in which DCI Director Mohammed Amin disclosed that investigators had obtained precise, timestamped phone location data on a sitting Kenyan citizen — within hours of a missing person report — without producing a single piece of paper showing a court had authorised it.
That disclosure, buried inside a press briefing designed to humiliate Tuju, has detonated a far larger conversation about Safaricom’s role as what critics are now openly calling the intelligence arm of the Kenyan state — a company that tracks, traces and hands over subscriber data to security agencies on demand, constitution and data protection law notwithstanding.
By Monday evening, the debate had acquired a human face: Tuju, a man who underwent spinal surgery in 2020 with metal plates inserted into his vertebrae, was sitting on a plastic chair inside Karen Police Station in visible agony.
Doctors from Karen Hospital were crouched around him. His lawyers said officers had been given strict orders from above not to allow him to be transferred to a proper medical facility.
Tuju getting medical attention from the police station as his condition deteriorated.
Outside the gate, Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Attorney General Justin Muturi, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, Senator Dan Maanzo and constitutional scholar PLO Lumumba had planted themselves and were not moving.
WHAT THE DCI REVEALED — AND WHAT HE DID NOT
Amin’s press briefing was intended to be a moment of institutional triumph. Instead it handed Tuju’s lawyers, the Law Society of Kenya, and privacy campaigners the single most incriminating public statement yet made by a Kenyan security chief about the telco-state surveillance pipeline.
Standing before cameras at DCI headquarters, Amin announced that forensic analysis had established, without an iota of doubt, that Tuju had never left his Mwitu Drive Karen residence during the entire period of his reported disappearance. Investigators knew, the DCI boss said, that Tuju’s phone was switched off at exactly 18:18 hours on Saturday, March 21 — and that at the moment it went dark, the device was inside his compound.
That is not information a police officer deduces from observation. That is telecommunications data: call detail records and cell tower triangulation, held exclusively by Safaricom as the network operator, tied to Tuju’s registered SIM. Obtaining it in real time, within hours of a missing person report being filed, requires — under Section 31 of Kenya’s Data Protection Act and Article 31 of the Constitution — a court order or equivalent judicial authorisation. Amin mentioned no such order. None has been produced. None has been shown to Tuju’s legal team. None has been cited in any subsequent police document.
Safaricom did not issue a statement. It has not been asked by any official body to explain the basis on which it released the data. The Office of the Data Protection Commissioner, which has jurisdiction over exactly this type of alleged breach, had also not commented as of Monday evening.
‘DCI-SAFARICOM AXIS OF EVIL’
On X, hundreds of posts made the connection within minutes of Amin’s briefing airing on Citizen TV. One widely shared post stated: “DCI chief confirming that Safaricom gave them all access to track, trace, dox and geolocate Tuju’s phone number, including the exact time it was switched off. DCI didn’t get a court order. DCI-Safaricom axis of evil.” Another, rephrasing the legal concern in starker terms, read: “What the DCI is conveying is that Safaricom, without authorisation from Tuju, provided Tuju’s private information to the DCI to track his whereabouts. Safaricom is a government entity that is putting vulnerable Kenyan citizens at risk.”
ScreenshotScreenshotScreenshotScreenshot
Legal observers pointed out a detail that sharpened the concern considerably: Amin stated that investigators had simultaneously sought a court-sanctioned search warrant to enter Tuju’s compound after the family denied them access. That warrant application confirms investigators knew they needed judicial authority to enter a building. They appear to have formed no equivalent view about obtaining the telecommunications data that told them what was inside it.
THE COURTS HAVE ALREADY HEARD THIS STORY
The Tuju case has arrived at the worst possible moment for Safaricom’s public position. Its long-standing assurance that subscriber data is only released on receipt of a valid court order has been contradicted, in open court, by one of its own employees.
In February 2026, Moi University student David Ooga Mokaya was acquitted by Nairobi magistrate Caroline Nyaguthi after a Safaricom employee, Daniel Hamisi, testified that a senior DCI officer, Michael K. Sang, had obtained Mokaya’s subscriber details, call records and precise location data in November 2024 by writing a letter. No court order.
When defence counsel Ian Mutiso asked the DCI officer whether he knew judicial authorisation was required, the officer admitted he did not know. Mokaya, whose life was effectively derailed by a prosecution built on unlawfully obtained data, is now suing Safaricom for Sh200 million in damages. A High Court restraining order bars the telco from sharing his data further, with the matter set for mention on March 30.
The Law Society of Kenya last week moved to scale that individual case into a systemic constitutional reckoning. Its petition, filed in the Milimani Constitutional and Human Rights Division, names Safaricom, the DCI, the Inspector General of Police, the DPP, the National Forensic Lab and Kenya Power as respondents.
The LSK alleges an organised conspiracy to illegally surveil Kenyan citizens, drawing a direct line from Mokaya’s case to the mass surveillance of Gen-Z protesters during the 2024 demonstrations. The petition demands a court-supervised audit of every data request the DCI made to Safaricom between June 2024 and December 2025, a formal apology published in national newspapers for fourteen consecutive days, the expungement of charges against anyone prosecuted on illegally obtained data, and the establishment of a Victims Compensation Fund.
Earlier investigations by human rights organisations had alleged that Safaricom maintained a near-real-time backend access arrangement with security agencies, and that this pipeline had been linked directly to enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.
Safaricom has never publicly addressed those specific allegations. On Monday, March 24 — the same day Tuju was arrested on the basis of data its network provided — the company quietly announced a new privacy initiative to partially mask phone numbers in M-Pesa transactions as a gesture toward data minimisation. The timing struck most Kenyans following the story as staggering.
THEN THEY BEAT HIM
Tuju had agreed to present himself at Karen Police Station voluntarily, with Kalonzo driving him there personally. What unfolded after his arrival is contested in its characterisation but documented in its consequences.
Lawyer Ndegwa Njiru told journalists that officers moved to force Tuju into a waiting Subaru before a single entry had been made in the Occurrence Book and before any charge had been communicated to the defence. “Even before he started going into the OB, they started pushing him into a Subaru,” Njiru said. “That was not an arrest. Were it not for our presence, we would have been talking about something else. That was serious violence.”
Tuju being whisked away by police officers from his Karen home accompanied by his lawyer Njiru.
The violence struck directly at a catastrophic pre-existing injury. Tuju underwent spinal surgery in 2020 following a near-fatal road accident; metal plates were inserted into his vertebrae during the procedure. A doctor at the scene told officers that three discs had been affected by the way he was handled during the arrest and that moving him without a full medical assessment risked gravely worsening his condition. He required a stretcher. He was instead kept on a plastic chair inside the station. His blood sugar levels, sources said by Monday evening, were fluctuating. His overall condition was described as deteriorating.
Kalonzo did not mince words. “I personally drove him to Karen Police Station to record a statement in good faith, in the spirit of due process. What followed was unacceptable. Tuju was carried away in a manner that no Kenyan, indeed no human being, should ever experience,” he said. When asked why a man with documented spinal injuries and worsening vital signs could not be transferred to hospital, a senior police officer at the station delivered the answer that has since been shared across social media thousands of times: “This is a matter under orders from above. We are following instructions and cannot release him at this time.”
SECTION 129: THE CHARGE BEING READIED
If prosecutors proceed, the charge will be brought under Section 129 of the Penal Code, which makes it a misdemeanour — punishable by up to three years in prison — to give a public officer information one knows or believes to be false. To secure a conviction, the state must prove that the information Tuju provided was false, that he knew or believed it to be false when he gave it, and that it caused officers to act on it. The DCI has already established the third limb: plainclothes detectives were deployed, forensic teams were mobilised, and a court-sanctioned search warrant was sought — all triggered by the family’s missing person report.
Tuju’s defence dismantles the first two. He reported a genuine threat to his safety at Karen Police Station on Friday, March 20, the day before his disappearance, logging it under OB 21/21/03/2026.
He told reporters the same unregistered white Toyota Land Cruiser 70 Series he had reported on Friday reappeared behind him on Saturday evening as he was heading to record a Ramogi FM interview. He turned onto Nandi Road, lost the tail, abandoned his vehicle on Miotoni Lane, and sought shelter with a family near the Karen-Kiambu border. “I want to thank a family in Kiambu who gave me shelter,” he told journalists.
“They did not care about my tribe. They simply saw me as a human being.” If that account is supported by the family who sheltered him, by CCTV footage from Karen’s roads, or by any corroboration of the vehicle he described, the false-information charge does not survive.
Amin posed a question intended to undermine Tuju’s account: “Why would a mother whose husband has disappeared for the last couple of hours fail to cooperate with the police and share whatever information she had with the investigating officers?” It is a question that cuts both ways. If the family knew Tuju was safe inside the house throughout, their refusal to admit police is inexplicable. If they genuinely did not know where he was, their caution about admitting armed officers in the middle of the night into a home that had already been forcibly entered by over a hundred people ten days earlier is rather easier to understand.
THE PROPERTY SIEGE THAT PRECEDED EVERYTHING
Tuju after being thrown out of his Dari property.
Understanding the full weight of what happened on Monday requires understanding what happened on March 14. On that morning, more than a hundred people arrived before dawn at Dari Business Park in Karen — the property at the centre of Tuju’s decade-long debt dispute with the East African Development Bank.
Some came on motorbikes. The officers who accompanied them covered their faces and, according to Tuju, carried no visible court documentation. Everyone on the premises was evicted. Tuju broadcast the scene live from outside his own gate.
That eviction was the enforcement of an October 2024 auction that sold Dari Business Park and Tamarind Karen to Ultra Eureka Limited, a company controlled by Stabex International chairman Jackson Kiplimo Chebett, for Sh450 million. Tuju has valued the 6.8-acre estate at Sh3.5 billion. The sale resolved a debt that began as a USD 9.1 million loan in 2015, grew to USD 15.1 million by an English High Court judgment in 2019, and has been upheld by every Kenyan court since. On March 9, Justice J.W.W. Mong’are struck out Tuju’s final amended plaint as res judicata, lifted all remaining interim orders, and cleared the way for Ultra Eureka to enforce its title. He filed his police report about being followed five days later. He disappeared ten days after the eviction.
The DCI says the chronology is suspicious. Tuju’s lawyers say it is explanatory.
THE QUESTIONS THAT WILL OUTLAST THIS CASE
Whether Tuju is charged, acquitted, or released without prosecution, Monday has left three questions embedded in Kenya’s public life that will not be dislodged by any single court outcome. The first and most consequential is whether Safaricom is functioning as a real-time intelligence asset for the Kenyan state, releasing location data to the DCI on the basis of written requests alone, in systematic violation of the Data Protection Act, the Constitution, and the rights of every subscriber on its network.
The second is whether the Office of the Data Protection Commissioner — an institution that has shown a new willingness to act in minor commercial cases — has the independence, the resources, and the political protection to pursue that question against the country’s most powerful private company. The third is whether a citizen who presents himself voluntarily to record a statement can be kept in a police station, denied hospital access, denied a formal charge, and held under pain on instructions from unnamed officials above, without any of the legal safeguards the Constitution guarantees.
As this edition went to press, Tuju was still at Karen Police Station. Kalonzo was still at the gate. The doctors were still inside. No charge had been read. No court order authorising the telecommunications data had been produced.
And on X, the same question was being asked — about Tuju, about Mokaya, about the Gen-Z protesters, about everyone whose movements have been mapped and monetised by a system that the Data Protection Act was written to restrain: who gave Safaricom permission to hand over this man’s life, and when?
Safaricom House along Waiyaki Way Nairobi pictured on March 4, 2025. Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation
Kenya woke up on Monday, March 23, to a quiet but unmistakable crisis. Shell-branded Vivo Energy stations along Magadi Road and in Kiserian had been running intermittently dry since Saturday.
The company’s outlet at Kipande House in Nairobi’s central business district exhausted its diesel stocks by morning and expected its petrol supplies to disappear before nightfall.
Across the city, taxi drivers were making five-stop odysseys searching for fuel. Boda boda operators in South B, South C and Nairobi West found nothing. A Westlands-based taxi driver named Steve Wakio told reporters he was forced to abandon his car and borrow a motorcycle to locate a dispensing pump near Wilson Airport.
That same morning, the United Energy and Petroleum Association, the lobby group representing Kenya’s network of independent petroleum dealers, dropped what can only be described as an ultimatum. Through its chairperson Irene Kimathi, UNEPA warned that its members would halt fuel supply nationwide unless the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority reviewed pump prices upward immediately.
The threat was stark. The framing was urgent. And the timing, delivered against the backdrop of the worst global oil supply shock since the 1970s, was carefully chosen.
This story is not simply about a fuel shortage. It is about who is exploiting that shortage, who is being hurt by it, and whether the regulatory architecture of Kenya’s downstream petroleum sector is fit to withstand the kind of geopolitical earthquake currently unfolding in the Middle East.
The War That Started Everything
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a coordinated airstrike campaign targeting military, nuclear and leadership infrastructure inside Iran, including attacks that resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Iran’s response was immediate and strategically catastrophic for global energy markets. Its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued prohibitions on vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, backed up by missile and drone attacks on commercial shipping. By March 12, Iran had confirmed 21 attacks on merchant vessels.
Tanker traffic through the strait, which in normal times carries roughly 20 percent of global seaborne oil trade, collapsed by approximately 70 percent, with more than 150 ships anchoring outside the chokepoint rather than risk transit.
The numbers are staggering. Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on March 8 for the first time in four years. It peaked above $126. By March 23, Brent was trading above $113 per barrel, a jump of more than $40 from the pre-war baseline of roughly $70.
The International Energy Agency, in language it has never previously used, described the situation as the greatest global energy and food security challenge in history.
The IEA’s member countries responded with the largest coordinated release of emergency oil reserves ever recorded, nearly 400 million barrels, equivalent to one-third of total government reserve holdings.
East and southern Africa are disproportionately exposed.
According to CITAC energy consultancy executive director Elitsa Georgieva, approximately 75 percent of the fuel imports consumed by the region originate from the Middle East.
Kenya, which consumes about 100,000 barrels of petroleum products daily and imports 100 percent of its refined fuel requirements, sits at the sharp end of that vulnerability.
The country’s sole refinery at Mombasa has been dormant for years after being shut down on grounds of economic unviability, a decision that left Kenya permanently dependent on refining capacity in the Gulf, India and Southeast Asia. That capacity is now under siege.
“The biggest fuel suppliers to Kenya are rationing product. A few distributors are experiencing stockouts in the villages.” — Martin Chomba, Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya
Industry insiders speaking to the Daily Nation indicated that one vessel expected to deliver 85 million litres of fuel arrived having loaded only 60 million litres, the shortfall directly attributable to safety concerns during transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Of approximately 60 vessels expected at Mombasa over a two-week window, only two were carrying petroleum products. The Shimanzi petroleum depot in Mombasa was being warned by fuel transporters of impending stockouts.
Saudi Arabia simultaneously announced reduced crude supply allocations to its Asian refinery clients for April 2026, a second consecutive month of cuts that will squeeze the secondary supply chains India, South Korea and Southeast Asian refiners use to produce the finished petroleum products that Kenya imports.
The G-to-G Deal Under Pressure
Kenya’s primary fuel import mechanism, the government-to-government arrangement originally designed to avert the dollar crisis of 2023, provides the country with a 180-day credit period for purchases from Saudi Aramco, the Emirates National Oil Company and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.
The deal was renewed and extended to 2028. It was supposed to represent supply security. Instead, it has become the primary source of anxiety, because all three suppliers have reported attacks on their refining infrastructure since the war began, have experienced facility shutdowns and have begun rationing the cargoes they allocate to importers.
Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi summoned oil marketers for an emergency meeting as early as March 10, assuring the public that Kenya held adequate reserves and that G-to-G contingency planning with Aramco, ADNOC and ENOC was underway.
He said imports had been secured through to the end of April 2026.
However, the situation on the ground contradicted official assurances almost immediately. Petroleum Principal Secretary Mohamed Liban was reduced to issuing a statement through a Member of Parliament’s live television interview on March 23, blaming the apparent shortages on hoarding by oil marketers who were speculating on price increases.
Industry insiders described a market in which wholesalers were refusing to sell to independent dealers at regulated prices, prioritising franchised outlets or simply withholding stock in anticipation of higher margins following the next EPRA price review.
Who is UNEPA, and What Does It Actually Want?
Understanding the UNEPA ultimatum requires understanding what UNEPA represents and what it has been demanding from the regulatory system for years, because this is not the first time Irene Kimathi and the association have threatened fuel supply disruption as a lever against the regulator.
UNEPA is the umbrella body for Kenya’s independent, non-franchised petroleum dealers.
These are the roughly 800 retail outlets operating outside the direct supply networks of multinationals like Vivo Energy, TotalEnergies and Rubis. Independent dealers occupy the bottom rung of the downstream market hierarchy.
They do not import fuel.
They purchase from wholesale Oil Marketing Companies who do, and they retail it to end consumers at EPRA-regulated maximum prices. Their margins, their operating costs and their profitability are all tightly constrained by EPRA’s monthly pricing formula.
The structural grievance is genuine and documented. EPRA’s pricing formula sets both a maximum retail price and an OMC wholesale margin.
For years, independent dealers complained that large oil marketing companies were selling to them at wholesale prices that, once dealer transport and operating costs were added, left margins so thin as to make the business unviable.
A 2022 statement by Kimathi, then serving as Mt Kenya East Petroleum Dealers Association chairperson, captured it plainly: large OMCs were selling to independent dealers at prices near the retail cap in Nairobi, making it impossible for rural dealers who bore additional transport costs to operate profitably.
The complaint was that wholesale price caps, while officially set by EPRA’s formula, were not being enforced in practice against the major suppliers.
EPRA did respond, over time. In March 2025, the regulator implemented the first phase of recommendations from its Cost of Service Study for Petroleum Products, raising OMC operating margins for super petrol from Ksh 12.39 per litre to Ksh 15.24, with comparable increases for diesel and kerosene.
A second phase increase followed in July 2025, producing the largest single pump price spike in over a year.
A third phase increase is scheduled for July 2026. In total, the cost-of-service study identified that combined retail margins should be raised from the then-current Ksh 8.19 per litre to Ksh 12.78, a revision that the IEA Kenya research unit warned could reflect industry self-interest, given that oil marketing companies themselves were key informants in the data collection underpinning the study.
The point is this: the regulated margin for fuel dealers in Kenya has been increasing. EPRA has been responsive to dealer cost pressures. The claim that current prices are unsustainable because margins have not been reviewed since 2019, which Kimathi made in 2022, is factually superseded by the 2025 revisions.
What UNEPA now demands is something categorically different: the suspension of price regulation altogether during the present crisis, to allow market forces to set the pump price at whatever the global disruption dictates. That is not a margin adjustment. That is deregulation by emergency decree.
The retail margin for super petrol was Ksh 12.39 per litre in early 2025. After EPRA’s phased revisions, it stands at over Ksh 15 per litre. The claim that margins have been frozen is false.
The Hoarding Problem: Blackmail or Business Reality?
The government’s own account of what is driving the visible shortage is damning. PS Liban on March 23 explicitly stated that oil marketers are hoarding fuel in anticipation of higher prices.
This is a precise description of speculative inventory behaviour: a dealer acquires or holds stock at current prices, withholds it from the pump, and waits for the regulatory review to set a higher price that will inflate the margin on the withheld volume.
It is not illegal.
It is, however, a manufactured shortage, and it is happening to ordinary Kenyans who need fuel to commute, farm, operate small businesses and access healthcare.
The Star’s spot check on March 23 found Nairobi’s Langata Road, one of the busiest arterial corridors in the capital, with multiple stations either dry or rationing supplies.
Reports from the North Rift indicated that Eldoret, Kitale, Kapsabet, Bungoma and parts of West Pokot had run out of diesel entirely, directly disrupting the planting season for large-scale farmers dependent on diesel-powered machinery.
Across a two-week shipping window at Mombasa, only two of 60 expected vessels were carrying petroleum products. The structural supply problem is real and worsening. The hoarding layer on top of it is a business calculation by dealers who believe EPRA will blink.
UNEPA’s threat to divert fuel to neighbouring countries, where prices are unregulated and therefore more profitable, deserves to be taken seriously not because it is economically easy but because it is legally possible and commercially rational. Kenya’s borders with Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia are not hermetically sealed.
Arbitrage across unregulated markets has occurred before. If a dealer can sell diesel at free-market prices in a neighbouring state and earn a higher margin than the EPRA formula permits in Kenya, the incentive exists. The warning is calibrated.
The EPRA Calculation and Its Defenders
The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s decision on March 14 to maintain pump prices at their existing levels for the March to April cycle was not capricious.
EPRA Director General Daniel Kiptoo gave a specific technical explanation: the price review was based on vessels received and discharged between February 10 and March 9, 2026.
Most of those were February-priced cargoes, acquired before Operation Epic Fury began on February 28.
The landed cost data fed into the March formula therefore reflected pre-war pricing. Kiptoo was transparent about this: the impact of the Middle East situation had not yet been reflected in prices.
This means that the current Nairobi pump prices of Sh178.28 for super petrol, Sh166.54 for diesel, and Sh152.78 for kerosene are priced against a world that no longer exists.
The April 15 review, when EPRA calculates prices based on cargoes discharged in the post-war period, will capture the full landed cost shock of crude above $110 per barrel plus dramatically higher shipping insurance premiums.
Dealers know this.
The market knows this. Everyone knows that April 15 will bring a very large price jump, and the UNEPA threat is, at its core, a demand to bring that jump forward now rather than wait three weeks for the formal regulatory process to catch up with reality.
Epra’s timeline is legally defensible but economically awkward. The landed cost of diesel already rose 8.46 percent between January and February 2026, from $586.80 to $636.45 per cubic metre.
Kerosene rose 6.79 percent over the same period.
These were pre-war increases. The March figures, which will underpin the April 15 review, are expected to reflect far more severe increases.
If Brent has averaged above $110 per barrel throughout March while shipping costs and insurance premiums have also spiked, the next pricing cycle will produce a shock that EPRA cannot absorb within the existing formula without either passing it directly to consumers or deploying a fuel subsidy.
The Subsidy Trap and the Sceptics
The government has pledged to subsidise the increase in landed costs. Dealers are openly sceptical, and their scepticism is grounded in recent history.
Kenya’s 2022-2023 fuel subsidy programme accumulated billions of shillings in unpaid claims to dealers, creating a backlog that destroyed the working capital of smaller independent operators.
Kimathi herself described the historical pattern precisely: the government is often unable to refund subsidy claims on time, making it difficult for businesses to operate effectively. Given the current political climate, business people are not prepared to take such risks.
This is not an unreasonable position.
The Sh104 billion Hustler Fund has logged default rates exceeding 50 percent. The Affordable Housing Programme has generated procurement controversies. The SHA health insurance transition haemorrhaged billions in mismanaged funds.
The Kenyan state’s track record for honouring commercial obligations on schedule is poor.
A dealer who accepts regulated prices below their landed cost, on the basis that the government will reimburse the differential, is essentially extending unsecured credit to a state that has demonstrated a structural inability to pay on time.
The risk is not theoretical.
At the same time, the argument that dealers cannot wait three weeks for the April 15 review to formally capture war-era costs deserves scrutiny.
The EPRA formula exists to prevent price shocks from being passed to consumers instantaneously, precisely because immediate price pass-through of global commodity spikes is regressive: it hits the poorest households, who spend the highest proportion of their income on transport and cooking fuel, with the greatest force.
The cost of kerosene, at Sh152.78 per litre, is not an abstraction for households in Kibera, Mathare or Mukuru who use it for cooking.
The Market Structure Problem Nobody Wants to Discuss
There is a deeper problem underneath the immediate crisis that neither UNEPA nor EPRA nor the Ministry of Energy has chosen to address publicly.
Kenya’s downstream petroleum market is an oligopoly at the wholesale level disguised as a competitive retail market. EPRA tracks 144 registered Oil Marketing Companies.
The actual import and wholesale market is controlled by a handful of them. Vivo Energy alone controls 21.34 percent of total sales volume by the regulator’s own December 2024 figures. Rubis holds 15.4 percent. TotalEnergies holds 14.8 percent. The top three OMCs collectively command over 51 percent of the market.
The Open Tender System, through which fuel cargoes are imported and distributed to the downstream market, concentrates power in the hands of whichever OMCs win the tender round.
Independent dealers who are not participants in the Open Tender System purchase from these large importers.
When the large importers choose to ration supply, as they are doing now, independent dealers have nowhere else to go. The UNEPA complaint about large OMCs refusing to sell at regulated prices is a structural market power problem, not simply a crisis-specific phenomenon. The crisis has amplified an existing dysfunction.
Kenya lacks the strategic petroleum reserves that would give the state any leverage in this situation. The National Oil Corporation of Kenya was mandated to maintain a 90-day strategic reserve.
NOCK’s prolonged financial difficulties have prevented it from fulfilling that mandate. Oil marketing companies are legally required to maintain stocks for 20 to 25 days. Most maintain 15 to 18 days of cover.
Kenya entered this crisis structurally underprepared, and the government’s assurances of adequacy are harder to credit against that backdrop.
What Should Actually Happen
The UNEPA demand for immediate price deregulation is dangerous and should be rejected. Deregulating pump prices during a supply shock of this magnitude would not stabilise supply.
It would transfer the full cost of a geopolitical war, a war that ordinary Kenyans had no hand in starting, directly onto the most economically vulnerable consumers in the country.
The 2022-2023 subsidy experience was painful but it prevented the kind of cascading inflation that unregulated fuel pricing during a supply shock would produce. The regulatory floor exists for a reason.
What EPRA should do is initiate an emergency mid-cycle review. The regulator has the legal authority, under Section 101(y) of the Petroleum Act 2019, to adjust its formula parameters. If the landed cost data from March cargoes already reflects war-era pricing, there is no legal or policy reason to wait until April 15 to incorporate it.
An emergency review that reflects actual current landed costs, with a transparent accompanying explanation, would remove the speculative incentive for hoarding and reduce the arbitrage pressure that is driving dealers to consider diverting fuel across borders.
The government’s subsidy pledge needs to be backed by a concrete payment mechanism and timeline, not another vague assurance.
If dealers are expected to absorb temporarily elevated landed costs in exchange for government reimbursement, a ring-fenced payment facility with a defined settlement period, administered through a mechanism independent of the general treasury payment process, is the minimum credible commitment.
The alternative is a repeat of 2022, where small dealers were destroyed by subsidy arrears while large OMCs absorbed the losses and passed them forward.
The hoarding accusation deserves regulatory enforcement, not just a public statement. If EPRA or the Ministry of Energy has evidence that specific OMCs are withholding stocks in anticipation of price increases, the Petroleum Act provides for investigation and sanction.
The Cabinet Secretary has convened emergency meetings. Those meetings should produce legally enforceable undertakings from the major OMCs, not press releases.
The Verdict on UNEPA’s Ultimatum
Is UNEPA’s demand justified? Partially, and on very narrow grounds. The structural complaint about independent dealers being squeezed between regulated retail prices and unregulated wholesale behaviour by dominant OMCs has been a legitimate and documented grievance for years.
The current crisis has intensified that squeeze to breaking point for many small operators.
The claim that the government cannot be trusted to pay subsidy arrears on time is historically accurate.
But the specific demand, suspend price regulation now and let the market set the price, is a different matter entirely. It is a demand that would benefit large OMCs with market power far more than it would benefit the small independent dealers UNEPA claims to represent.
It would immediately raise pump prices for every Kenyan consumer at a moment of maximum economic stress. It would disproportionately harm the rural poor, who have the fewest alternative transport options and the least capacity to absorb inflation. And it is being pressed in a window chosen precisely because the geopolitical crisis makes the government more susceptible to pressure.
The threat to halt supply is, at its core, a negotiating position. It is a demand dressed as a warning. Some of what underlies it is legitimate market distress. Much of it is opportunism, and in the current environment, where matatu fares are already climbing, where North Rift farmers cannot access diesel for planting, and where Nairobi commuters are traversing the city on motorcycles looking for petrol, the opportunism is worth calling out by name.
The Kenyan state, for its part, has no standing to be righteously indignant.
Its failure to build strategic reserves, its refusal to maintain a functioning national refinery, its extension of a G-to-G deal that tied the country’s fuel security to three Gulf suppliers whose refining infrastructure is now under military attack, its tolerance of a wholesale market structure that systematically disadvantages independent dealers, these are the policy failures that made this crisis as dangerous as it is.
EPRA, the Ministry of Energy, the National Treasury, and decades of administrations that treated petroleum infrastructure as a patronage vehicle rather than a strategic asset all bear responsibility for the position Kenya is in today.
Kenya lacks strategic reserves. Its refinery is idle. Its three G-to-G suppliers are under attack. Its OMCs are hoarding. Its dealers are threatening a blackout. The state’s vulnerability is entirely self-inflicted.
What Kenya cannot afford, in the middle of a war-driven supply crisis, is for the downstream petroleum sector to become a theatre of regulatory paralysis and commercial brinkmanship. EPRA must act on its emergency review authority. The government must back its subsidy pledge with a credible payment mechanism.
The large OMCs must be held to their mandatory stock obligations. And UNEPA must understand that the public will remember who chose to manufacture scarcity during a national emergency, regardless of how legitimate the underlying grievance may be.
The pump must flow. That is not a business proposition. It is a public necessity. The regulatory machinery exists to make it so. Whether the people operating that machinery have the courage to use it is now the only question that matters.
For a long time, the world of gambling was perceived as a closed men’s club – a space of brutal excitement and complex strategies. Today, women are actively embracing the game and making it part of their lifestyle.
How the online gaming audience changes
Just a few years ago, the profile of a gaming platform user was quite uniform. However, the situation is different now: women make up 30% to 40% of the audience on global platforms, and their share continues to grow. This shift is described as a changing casino audience.
It is not a short-term spike, but a stable trend. Women find accessibility, safety, and aesthetics in online entertainment. AfroPari believes that, for female audiences, gaming is becoming part of everyday life rather than a special occasion.
Mobile has changed the rules
The key driver of such a tendency has been the industry’s shift into the user’s pocket – in the most literal sense. With the emergence of mobile apps, the concept of a mobile casino has become synonymous with freedom. For the modern woman, whose day is a complex mix of work, family, personal projects, and meetings, flexibility is crucial. The smartphone has erased boundaries and lowered the barrier to entry.
The AfroPari platform was originally designed with a focus on the mobile experience – users don’t have time to figure out complicated interfaces, so simplicity and speed matter. When slots launch in seconds, and navigation remains intuitive even for beginners, gaming easily fits into the rhythm of life, whether it’s a commute or a short coffee break.
Why women are entering the niche
Women’s motivation differs from men’s. While for many men gaming is associated with risk and competition, for women it’s primarily a way to switch off and take a break.
In this case, online gaming is about time for yourself. It’s a chance to pause everything, step away from routine, and get emotional relief. It’s less about tension and more about comfort and the quality of visual content. This demand for “smart leisure” is what is shaping the growing audience of women players.
The role of slot games
The easiest way to appreciate the advantages of this format is through slot games. There are several obvious factors.
First, visual appeal. Modern slots increasingly resemble high-quality video games or animation.
Second, dynamics. Short sessions allow players to jump into a game for a few minutes and leave at any time.
And finally, the absence of pressure. You’re one-on-one with the process, and even if luck isn’t on your side now, it might be next time.
Today, for a growing number of players, slot games online are small but vivid adventures. Examples like Royal Fruits 5: Hold ‘n’ Link, Fruit Island, or Piggy Cash: Hold and Win combine simple mechanics, visual appeal, and a comfortable pace. AfroPari emphasizes intuitiveness: when everything works quickly, the game easily fits into the rhythm of modern life.
Convenient design is complemented by bonuses that make the start feel natural. For instance, a 200% welcome package or special Friday offers in the Casino and Games sections increase engagement without overwhelming the user.
Inclusivity as the new norm
The gaming industry is becoming more inclusive, and this is changing the user experience. As casino players are no longer divided by gender, casinos move beyond stereotypes and become a familiar form of entertainment, as natural as watching TV series or scrolling through social media feeds.
The new casino experience is built around the real needs of players and respect for their choices. AfroPari is evolving alongside its audience, relying on feedback and real-world usage scenarios. The company creates an environment where gaming remains simple, accessible, and comfortable for everyone.
Ultimately, gaming is no longer defined by who plays, but by how seamlessly it fits into a lifestyle. Women have already become an important part of the industry and the new norm.
NAIROBI, Kenya, Mar 23 — Family members denied detectives investigating the disappearance of former Cabinet Secretary Raphael Tuju access to his residence, the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) said Suunday night, as efforts to trace his whereabouts continue.
In a statement, the DCI said Tuju was reported missing by his family on Sunday at Karen Police Station after his vehicle was discovered abandoned in Nairobi’s Karen suburb.
Police said the car was found along Miotoni Lane with its hazard lights on after a security guard from a nearby institution alerted authorities.
Officers from Karen Police Station responded to the scene, and crime scene investigators later processed the area before towing the vehicle to the station for forensic examination.
However, the DCI said investigators attempting to access Tuju’s residence along Mwitu Drive were denied entry by family members.
“While progress is being made, the DCI notes that an attempt by investigators to access Mr Tuju’s residence along Mwitu Drive was denied by the family,” the agency said.
“We urge full cooperation from all parties, including unrestricted access to relevant locations and prompt provision of information, for a swift and thorough resolution.”
The DCI added that a specialised investigative team has been deployed and is working with other government agencies to trace Tuju.
Appeal for information
Authorities also appealed to members of the public with information about his whereabouts—or who may have witnessed suspicious activity in the Miotoni Lane area before, on or after March 21—to come forward.
Earlier Sunday, Siaya Governor James Orengo said Tuju had gone missing under unclear circumstances following the discovery of his abandoned vehicle in Karen.
Speaking during a church service in Narok, Orengo suggested the former minister may have been kidnapped and urged Kenyans to pray for him.
Lawyer and legislator Otiende Amollo said Tuju’s legal team was working to establish his whereabouts while pressing authorities for answers.
Tuju’s reported disappearance comes amid a prolonged legal dispute over the ownership and planned auction of Dari Business Park in Karen.
On March 18, the Commercial Court declined to grant temporary orders sought by Tuju to block the auction of the property and related assets.
Justice Moses Ado ruled that the application could not be granted without allowing the respondents to be heard and directed that the matter be heard on a priority basis.
The dispute involves lenders seeking to recover debts totaling more than $15 million linked to properties owned by Tuju’s company, Dari Limited.
Authorities have not commented on Tuju’s earlier claims that powerful government figures were pressuring him to vacate the Karen property after he declined an offer to sell it.
The numbers are staggering. Over the past three years, Equity Bank Group has lost the equivalent of more than Sh4 billion to a cascading wave of fraud and cybercrime that has struck the lender in nearly every market it operates: Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and with further exposure expected in Tanzania, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The losses have come through hacked payment systems, stolen staff credentials, insider-facilitated transfers, cryptocurrency laundering, and now a cross-border digital heist involving the bank’s Rwandan subsidiary.
The question that Kenya’s banking establishment and its regulators refuse to answer publicly is blunt: at what point does a pattern of catastrophic, recurring financial crime stop being a series of unfortunate incidents and start being evidence of systemic failure?
Equity Group Holdings, which styles itself Africa’s leading financial inclusion champion and holds the distinction of being East Africa’s largest bank by market capitalisation, has framed every theft as a trigger for reform.
Each successive heist has been met with a press release, a CEO speech and, eventually, a mass dismissal.
In 2025, the bank fired more than 1,500 employees in successive waves across its Kenyan and Ugandan operations, in what CEO James Mwangi called the most aggressive internal anti-fraud campaign in East African banking history.
Then, barely eight months later, Equity Bank Rwanda was looted of Rwf 4.9 billion — roughly USD 3.4 million — in a five-day digital heist coordinated across two countries. The mop-up had not even finished before the next attack arrived.
The Blueprint: How The Looting Has Unfolded
The first recorded systematic assault on Equity’s digital infrastructure in recent memory began quietly in April 2023, when unknown actors penetrated the bank’s CyberSource payment and fraud management system. Security configurations for three registered merchants were downgraded from three-dimensional authentication — which requires multiple layers of verification — to two-dimensional, which offers far weaker protection.
For the next three months, fraudulent credit card scripts were run silently against the three merchants, with payments debited straight from Equity Bank’s settlement account.
No goods changed hands. No services were rendered. The money simply disappeared.
By the time Equity Bank discovered what had happened and filed a report with the Directorate of Criminal Investigations, it had lost Sh322.1 million. Correspondence between the DCI and the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions, subsequently seen by Nation Africa, traced the stolen funds through multiple local bank accounts before a portion landed in the United Arab Emirates through a private company in Abu Dhabi, operated via a Kenyan-British businessman who is among four suspects recommended for prosecution.
The DCI noted that forensic analysis of a seized laptop was expected to reveal whether an Equity Bank staff member facilitated the breach from inside.
Whether the employee-collusion angle was ever conclusively resolved has not been made public. Whether the Abu Dhabi funds were ever recovered remains unknown.
One year later, almost to the month, the credit card fraud vector was struck again.
Between April 9 and 15, 2024, Sh179.6 million was fraudulently paid out to 551 bank accounts and mobile money wallets.
Investigators determined that an Equity Bank employee had installed malware in the bank’s main system specifically to delay detection, buying time for the stolen funds to be dispersed.
Equity managed to freeze Sh60 million; the remaining Sh118.9 million had already been moved — Sh63 million to M-Pesa accounts and Sh39 million to accounts in competing banks.
The CBK said nothing publicly. Equity Bank said nothing publicly. The incident was disclosed only through investigative reporting.
The Sh1.5 Billion Payroll Heist: An Inside Job At The Heart Of The Group
July 10, 2024, was the date that changed everything for Equity Group. Through 47 transactions designed to mimic routine salary payments, cybercriminals siphoned Sh1,545,553,374.59from the bank’s salary suspense general ledger — an internal account used to process payroll for corporate clients — in a single day.
The scheme was breathtaking in its sophistication: the transactions looked, on every internal system, like legitimate corporate payroll disbursements to employees of various companies.
In reality, Kenya’s second-largest bank was being drained in one of the most audacious bank heists this country has ever seen.
At the centre of the investigation was David Kimani Machiri, a general manager at Equity Bank’s Group Processing Centre, Salary Processing Unit, who held direct system access to the compromised account.
The digital fingerprints of every one of the 47 transactions pointed to his credentials. Machiri had, investigators noted with particular suspicion, taken sick leave immediately before the theft.
Yet somehow, his access codes were live and fully operational on the day of the heist. When confronted, his explanations did not satisfy investigators. He was arrested on July 12, 2024, and granted bail of Sh500,000 — then, on August 11, 2024, he was allegedly abducted and reportedly held in a forest, in a twist that raised immediate questions about who, precisely, needed him silenced.
As investigators followed the money, a second name surfaced: Ruth Muthoni Kamau, a businesswoman whose companies — Goodmans Fresh Ltd and Blue Kenfresh Ltd — received Sh105 million directly, with additional funds flowing into personal accounts.
A third suspect, Owen Karanja, received Sh215 million through his companies and, according to police, converted the entire sum to bitcoin deposited into a Binance cryptocurrency wallet registered in Muthoni’s name.
A fourth suspect, initially identified only as “Geoffrey”, was revealed through fingerprint analysis to be Geoffrey Kahungi Kiragu, founder of Lesedi Developers, a real estate firm that had defrauded more than 800 investors of at least Sh1 billion before its collapse in 2023. Kiragu had simply moved on to bigger scores.
Five individuals with Somali-sounding names received Sh463 million and were detained while attempting to access further funds at Equity Bank’s headquarters, pointing to the involvement of Hawala networks — the traditional Islamic money transfer system that operates entirely outside conventional banking channels — alongside cryptocurrency conversion.
The theft, in other words, was not opportunistic. It was a planned, multi-layered, professionally executed financial crime involving serial fraudsters, an insider, conversion to crypto to defeat tracing, offshore routing through forex bureaus, and hawala for the final clean-out.
The Cover-Up That Made A Scandal A Crisis
What elevated the Sh1.5 billion heist from a serious crime to a potential institutional crisis was the allegation of systematic interference in the investigation itself.
Inspector Bonface Maina Kamau, the lead Banking Fraud Investigation Unit detective on the case, found himself at the centre of what internal police correspondence suggests was an orchestrated campaign to derail the probe after he challenged inconsistencies in Ruth Muthoni’s witness statement — including a document that bore the wrong year, 2023 instead of 2024, and an improperly initialled recording.
When Inspector Kamau pushed for a corrected statement, Muthoni filed a complaint against him with the Directorate of Public Complaints, accusing him of demanding a Sh10 million surety and orchestrating an illegal abduction.
The complaint triggered Kamau’s sudden transfer to Baragoi in Samburu County — one of Kenya’s most remote postings — effectively removing the most knowledgeable investigator from the most complex financial crime case in the country.
In protest letters to senior police officials, Kamau alleged that two senior DCI officers from the Transnational Organised Crime Unit had “incessantly tried to help Ms Muthoni wriggle out of the investigation”, that ODPP bureaucrats had made similar approaches, and that Muthoni had made WhatsApp calls to “senior officers in the DCI and the National Police Service” while being processed and had met an officer who provided her with a BFIU contact for “furtherance in assistance she needed.”
Muthoni has since obtained a court order blocking the police from investigating or arresting her, claiming the investigation is tainted.
A Nairobi lawyer, Esther Bitutu Kadiki, was arrested in May 2025 and charged in connection with the heist, with court papers alleging she was instrumental in orchestrating the fraudulent siphoning of funds.
The Group’s own Chief Internal Auditor was sacked in October 2024 after being blamed for oversight failures that preceded the theft. Multiple legal proceedings now run concurrently in different courts. The investigation, in short, is as fragmented as the stolen funds.
Uganda: Years Of Looting Under The Bank’s Nose
Kenya’s losses, spectacular as they are, represent only part of the story.
In Uganda, Equity Bank has suffered a slow-motion catastrophe that should have raised alarm bells at the board level years ago.
Between 2018 and 2024, the Ugandan subsidiary was consumed by a massive insider fraud scheme in which UGX 65 billion — approximately USD 17 million — in unsecured loans was issued through the bank’s Eazzy Stock digital lending platform to fake companies, unqualified borrowers, and employees’ relatives, without adequate due diligence.
At least eight staff members were prosecuted. Managing Director Anthony Kituuka resigned. The scheme contributed to Equity Bank Uganda recording a UGX 18.8 billion net loss in 2023, a figure that has since been partially reversed — but not without leaving a deep scar on the subsidiary’s credibility.
In 2022 and 2023, a wave of SIM-swap and mobile banking frauds hit Ugandan customers.
In 2024, the bank was separately exposed to an additional UGX 4 billion in losses from the negligent failure to reconcile thousands of Visa card transactions, a failure investigators linked to two employees in the bank’s monitoring team. When the bank moved to recoup those losses by placing liens on affected accounts, it placed them on accounts that were already dormant or had been closed — aggravating customers who had nothing to do with the fraud.
Beyond the human toll, the UGX 4 billion card fiasco exposed a monitoring team that was either incompetent or complicit.
In one additional case, an Equity Bank Uganda operations manager was charged in court over the alleged theft and laundering of USD 2.8 million from the lender.
By mid-2025, when Mwangi extended his Kenyan anti-fraud purge into Uganda, Equity Bank Uganda’s fraud-related provisions had ballooned to UGX 191.2 billion — a figure that, taken alone, would be a national banking scandal in any country on the continent.
Rwanda 2026: The Purge Did Not Hold
Rwanda was supposed to be different. Equity Group had explicitly named it as one of the subsidiaries that would be swept through the integrity audit Mwangi had launched.
The CEO had gone on record in May 2025 promising to be “consistently ruthless.” Rwanda, Tanzania, South Sudan and the DRC were named destinations for the crackdown. Eight months later, on February 14 to 18, 2026, attackers executed a five-day digital assault on Equity Bank Rwanda that drained Rwf 4.9 billion — approximately USD 3.4 million — from the bank’s mobile money float system. Equity detected and contained the breach, reversing a majority of transactions within 24 hours. Approximately USD 2.5 million — 74 percent of the total — remained outstanding.
On March 15, 2026, Equity Bank Rwanda confirmed the incident. On March 23, 2026, six Ugandan nationals — Mugisha Solomon, Enock Mpanga Kazige, Katerega Benedicto, Kiyimba Faruk, Oketcho Gerard, and Katamba Isma — were arraigned at Kampala Metropolitan Police under CRB: 215/2026, charged with electronic fraud under Section 18(1) and (2) of Uganda’s Computer Misuse Act, Cap 96.
The Rwanda Investigation Bureau had separately detained 35 individuals in Rwanda, including two Equity Bank Rwanda IT staff connected to data centre operations.
Investigators told sources that “there must have been physical access to the data centre.” The reference in the Ugandan charge sheet to “others still at large” confirmed the operation was wider than the six individuals in custody.
The 2026 attack was not Rwanda’s first encounter with criminals targeting Equity Bank. In November 2019, twelve people — eight Kenyans, three Rwandans, and a Ugandan — were arrested in Kigali while attempting a similar cyber-fraud operation against the bank.
They were convicted in 2021 and sentenced to eight-year jail terms. That history makes the 2026 breach more damning, not less: Equity Bank Rwanda had been on notice since 2019 that it was a cross-border target.
The 2026 attack was, by all accounts, far more technically sophisticated — exploiting the mobile money float mechanism, deploying a cross-border human mule architecture, and apparently gaining entry through a third-party vendor’s system rather than through a frontal assault on the bank’s own network.
The Rogue Employee At Sh387M: A Fourth Attack In The Same Year
Even as the Sh1.5 billion payroll heist dominated headlines, Equity Bank Kenya was simultaneously absorbing a fourth major loss. Between May 17 and June 14, 2024 — while the payroll investigation was still live — a rogue employee illegally transferred Sh386.5 million to eight companies: Ubahashi Traders Limited, Calabash Adventures Limited, Jahnur Investment, Kariye Investment, Flowerish International, Kariye Salah Ali, Hotho Investments, and Sasa Pay Trust.
Equity Bank rushed to court for freezing orders and reported the matter to the BFIU. This was a separate theft, a separate employee, separate beneficiary companies — yet sharing names with some of the Hawala-linked suspects already implicated in the payroll heist, a connection that raises questions about the breadth of the criminal network that had embedded itself inside the institution.
The Audit Chief Is Fired, Not The System
One of the more revealing episodes in this saga is what happened to Equity Bank’s most senior internal watchdog.
Court papers filed in the Employment and Labour Relations Court reveal that a senior bank official who had served as Group Chief Internal Auditor since 2016 and was reassigned as Director Internal Audit in February 2024 was suspended in August 2024 and dismissed in October 2024, after the bank identified “omissions and/or commissions, failure or negligence” linked to his oversight role as contributing causes to the Sh1.5 billion loss.
The man had spent 22 years at the institution. His termination was treated as a solution. The structure that allowed an internal salary suspense account to be drained of Sh1.5 billion through 47 transactions without real-time alert — that structure received no public scrutiny whatsoever.
What The Numbers Actually Say
Tallied conservatively across the documented incidents from 2023 to early 2026, Equity Group has lost or been exposed to fraud and cybercrime losses approaching the equivalent of Sh5.5 billion across its regional operations.
The figure includes the Sh322.1 million CyberSource credit card fraud (2023), the Sh179.6 million repeat credit card fraud (April 2024), the Sh386.5 million rogue-employee transfer (May to June 2024), the Sh1.545 billion payroll heist (July 2024), the UGX 65 billion Eazzy Stock digital lending scandal in Uganda (2018 to 2024, equivalent to approximately Sh2.2 billion at current rates), the UGX 4 billion unreconciled Visa card losses in Uganda (2024), and the Rwf 4.9 billion Rwanda digital heist (February 2026, approximately Sh475 million).
Not counted in this figure are the USD 2.8 million Uganda operations manager fraud, the title deed fraud of Sh490 million, forged payment instructions of Sh26.2 million, or fraudulent teller transactions of Sh39 million — all separately disclosed in court documents.
The bank’s own internal audit, which led to the dismissal of between 1,200 and 1,500 employees across Kenya and Uganda by mid-2025, confirmed total losses over two years of at least Sh2 billion (approximately USD 15.4 million) from staff collusion alone.
These are not allegations. These are figures drawn from the bank’s own public statements, court filings, police charge sheets, and DCI correspondence with the ODPP.
The Structural Problem The Bank Will Not Name
Every statement issued by Equity Bank Group in the wake of these incidents has shared a common theme: the problem is the people, not the system. James Mwangi has said he will be ruthless. He will clean the bank.
He will protect mama mboga’s chicken. He will remove those who have compromised themselves. And so the bank has fired employees: 195 in May 2025, then 287 by mid-May, then 1,200 in a single wave on May 29, 2025 — nearly nine percent of the entire Kenyan workforce, handed two-day ultimatums to prove their innocence. By the time the Uganda purge was added, more than 1,500 people had been dismissed.
What has not been publicly examined, by the bank, by the Central Bank of Kenya, by the Bank of Uganda, or by the National Bank of Rwanda, is this: how does a bank of Equity’s scale and sophistication — with a market capitalisation of Sh1.3 trillion, operations in seven countries, and a customer base exceeding 12.9 million — allow a single manager’s credentials to authorise 47 transactions totalling Sh1.5 billion from a salary suspense account without a single real-time flag? How does a credit card fraud scheme run undetected for three consecutive months before the bank notices? How does the same fraud vector succeed again, one year later, by a different set of criminals? How does an employee install malware in the main system without detection? And how does the Rwanda subsidiary, explicitly named for a post-Kenya integrity audit, end up being looted eight months after the CEO’s pledge to sweep it clean?
The answer, which no one in authority is publicly willing to give, is that the problem is not primarily the employees.
The problem is a digital banking architecture that expanded faster than the controls designed to govern it. Equity Bank has transformed itself, with extraordinary commercial success, from a building society for the unbanked into a seven-country digital financial services group processing millions of transactions daily across mobile money platforms, agent networks, and third-party technology integrations.
In doing so, it has multiplied not just the opportunities for financial inclusion but the attack surfaces for financial crime. Every new integration is a potential entry point. Every new market is a new set of local fraudsters studying the system. Every new credential is a potential key.
Where Are The Regulators?
The Central Bank of Kenya has, to date, made no public statement specifically addressing the string of fraud incidents at Equity Bank. The Communications Authority of Kenya reported 7.9 billion cyber threats in the first eight months of 2025 — double the figure for 2024 — and the CBK has described Kenya’s banking sector as “resilient.”
This is the same regulator that is mandated under the Banking Act to ensure the soundness and stability of institutions under its watch.
The Bank of Uganda has been similarly silent on the Equity Uganda fraud provisions of UGX 191.2 billion. The National Bank of Rwanda confirmed only that it was cooperating with the Rwanda Investigation Bureau on the February 2026 attack.
No regulator in any of the three primary jurisdictions has publicly demanded an independent audit of Equity Group’s cybersecurity architecture. No regulator has disclosed whether the bank faces any supervisory sanction for repeated material control failures.
This silence is itself a regulatory failure. Kenya’s Banking Act grants the CBK sweeping powers to inspect, investigate and direct remedial action at licensed institutions.
The Proceeds of Crime and Anti-Money Laundering Act creates obligations that the bank’s own transactions with the Abu Dhabi-routed funds, the bitcoin conversions, and the Hawala networks should have triggered.
That the investigation into who precisely engineered the 2023 CyberSource hack — and whether an insider was involved — appears to have produced no public outcome three years later is not a point of comfort. It is a point of alarm.
The Questions That Must Be Answered
Is Equity Bank’s digital infrastructure fundamentally vulnerable to insider exploitation in ways that individual dismissals cannot fix? Why has no regulator in Kenya, Uganda or Rwanda publicly demanded an independent third-party cybersecurity audit of Equity Group’s core banking systems? How much of the combined Sh5-plus billion stolen from the bank across its markets has actually been recovered, and where is the money that reached Abu Dhabi in 2023? What happened to the investigation into Inspector Bonface Kamau’s allegations that senior DCI officers and ODPP bureaucrats attempted to shield Ruth Muthoni from prosecution? Are the criminal networks that have targeted Equity Bank in Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda linked — and if so, is there a coordinated organised crime operation running across the group’s footprint that law enforcement has failed to map and dismantle? And why, after the largest internal purge in East African banking history, did Equity Bank Rwanda’s data centre apparently suffer a physical or near-physical access breach just eight months later?
These are not rhetorical questions.
They are the questions that the bank’s 12.9 million customers, its 14,000 remaining employees, its shareholders on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the Uganda Securities Exchange and the Rwanda Stock Exchange, and the regulators in seven countries are entitled to have answered.
The money belongs to ordinary Kenyans, Ugandans, and Rwandans. Some of it is mama mboga’s chicken. And it keeps disappearing.
On the evening of Friday March 20, 2026, a De Havilland Dash 8 carrying 34 passengers and five crew skidded off the runway at Wilson Airport after landing from Kisumu. It was, by the reckoning of those on board, a matter of seconds from becoming an inferno. It was also, by any fair reckoning of the record, anything but a surprise.
Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, who was among the 39 occupants of the aircraft operated by ALS Limited on behalf of Safarilink Aviation, later posted on Facebook shortly after 11pm to tell Kenya he was alive.
He praised the pilot for steering the Dash 8 off the sealed surface and forcing it to stall on the grass near the intersection of Runways 07 and 14, thereby preventing what he described as a catastrophic fire.
What he did not praise was anyone at Wilson Airport itself: no ambulance came. No emergency response team materialised. Kenya Airports Authority confirmed the aircraft remained on site while recovery efforts were ongoing, and said operations at the airport continued normally.
For Senator Osotsi, the ordeal did not come out of nowhere. Eight days earlier, on March 12, he had stood in the Senate chamber and listed five pointed questions about the state of Wilson Airport’s runway, drainage, rescue and firefighting facilities, air traffic systems and power backup. Nobody answered them before his plane nearly burned.
That gap between the warning and the disaster is the story of Safarilink and Wilson Airport in miniature: alarm bells that ring loudly, followed by institutional silence, followed by another incident.
Kenya Insights has reconstructed the airline’s safety record over more than a decade and found a pattern that Kenya’s civil aviation establishment has consistently failed to confront.
THE AIRLINE THEY TRUSTED TO FLY THEM TO PARADISE
Safarilink Aviation Limited, headquartered at Wilson Airport and carrying the IATA code F2, was founded in 2004 to do something deceptively simple: fly tourists to the Maasai Mara and back.
Over two decades it built a reputation as the premium domestic carrier for safari-bound travellers, with scheduled and charter routes connecting Nairobi to remote game reserve airstrips across the country.
Its current fleet includes several Cessna 208B Grand Caravans and De Havilland Canada Dash 8 variants, and the airline carries tens of thousands of passengers a year, many of them foreign visitors whose first and last impression of Kenya’s aviation infrastructure is formed aboard a Safarilink flight.
That image of reliability is not without foundation.
Safarilink has never lost a single paying passenger or crew member in a crash of its own aircraft. Against the backdrop of African aviation more broadly, that is a record worth noting.
The problem is the growing list of serious incidents that surrounds it, incidents that in other jurisdictions would have prompted regulatory intervention, public inquiries and fleet audits, but which in Kenya have been absorbed into the national conversation and then forgotten, one after another, until the next one arrives.
A CHRONOLOGY OF CLOSE CALLS
December 2007: The Apron Collision at Wilson
The airline’s first documented serious incident occurred even before it had firmly established its safari routes. On 12 December 2007, a Cessna 208B Grand Caravan registered 5Y-SLA sustained substantial damage at Wilson Airport in a ground collision on the apron involving a turning propeller from another aircraft.
No passengers were on board and no injuries resulted, but the episode exposed the congestion and ground handling risks that would shadow the airline for years to come.
August 2019: Wildebeest on the Runway at Kichwa Tembo
The most cinematically dramatic entry in Safarilink’s incident log came in August 2019. Its De Havilland Canada DHC-8-200, registration 5Y-SLM, was on a scheduled flight from Wilson to Kichwa Tembo Airstrip deep in the Maasai Mara.
As the aircraft touched down, several wildebeest dashed onto the strip.
The left main landing gear collapsed on impact and the number one propeller was damaged. The aircraft was written off as a total loss. Two wildebeest died. Every passenger and crew member walked away.
The incident was widely reported internationally, presented as a spectacular collision with the African landscape, but the underlying questions it raised about wildlife management at remote airstrips received little regulatory follow-through.
October 2019: Tyre Burst at Wilson
Just weeks after the Mara wildlife strike, a Safarilink Cessna Caravan, registration 5Y-SLJ, skidded off the runway at Wilson Airport after a tyre burst on landing from Lamu. Ten passengers and two crew members were on board. None were injured.
The Kenya Civil Aviation Authority closed the runway for 30 minutes while the aircraft was towed clear. The KCAA called the incident ‘regrettable.’
What it did not call it was part of a pattern, even though it followed a Silverstone Air wheel incident and preceded a second Safarilink tyre failure on a Dash 8 within days, prompting the UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office to issue a travel advisory warning Britons to scrutinise the safety records of airlines operating from Wilson Airport.
March 5, 2024: Mid-Air Collision Over Nairobi National Park
This is the incident that should have changed everything and did not change enough. At 09:34 on the morning of March 5, 2024, Safarilink Flight 053, a Dash 8-315 registered 5Y-SLK, climbed out of Wilson Airport’s Runway 14 bound for Ukunda with 39 passengers and five crew.
Simultaneously, a Cessna 172M registered 5Y-NNJ, operated by the Ninety-Nines Flying School and based at Wilson, was conducting touch-and-go circuit training on Runway 07. Air traffic control had issued see-and-avoid instructions to both crews.
The aircraft collided. The Dash 8’s crew heard a loud bang, felt severe yaw and levelled off, eventually returning safely to Wilson with part of the right horizontal stabiliser’s de-icing boot torn away.
The Cessna spun out of control and fell into Nairobi National Park, 1.6 nautical miles from the airport perimeter.
The instructor pilot, 25 years old and holding a Commercial Pilot’s Licence, and the 20-year-old student pilot with 49 total hours in his logbook were both killed on impact. Their deaths remain the only passenger or crew fatalities ever linked to a Safarilink flight.
Kenya’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Department launched an investigation and issued a preliminary report. As of March 2026, a final report had not been publicly released.
The AAID noted that ATC had issued see-and-avoid instructions and that the Dash 8 crew reported what appeared to be clear traffic before impact.
The fundamental question of how Wilson Airport’s congested mixed-use airspace, shared daily by commercial turboprops, training aircraft and private planes operating under visual flight rules, can be made safe remains unanswered.
December 28, 2024: ALS Dash 8 Runway Mishap at Wilson
Less than a year before the March 2026 excursion, an ALS-operated Dash 8, registration 5Y-MRE, experienced a landing mishap at Wilson when its main tyres burst, temporarily closing the runway. No injuries were reported.
The significance of this incident lies partly in the aircraft: ALS, the same operator that would the following year handle Flight 090 on behalf of Safarilink, was already registering incidents at the very airport where another of its aircraft would come to grief.
THE NIGHT A SENATOR’S QUESTIONS CAME TRUE
The March 2026 runway excursion has a quality that separates it from those that came before: it was anticipated in formal legislative terms with extraordinary precision. On March 12, Senator Osotsi had asked the Standing Committee on Roads, Transportation and Housing for a statement covering the state of Wilson Airport’s runway, its drainage, its rescue and firefighting facilities, its air traffic control systems and its power backup installations.
He had asked for findings from investigations into recent accidents around Wilson. He had asked for timelines on the demolition of buildings rising above the prescribed height restrictions along the flight path.
His senatorial colleagues agreed with the thrust of his concerns.
Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot, who represents Kericho, stated during the March 12 session that ‘any user of that airport must be concerned for their safety.’
He flagged the airport’s lax security arrangements and noted that runway repairs were progressing, in his phrase, ‘extremely slowly,’ such that planes on certain runways must overfly Lang’ata Road and the playing compound of Lang’ata Primary School during approach.
Marsabit Senator Mohamed Chute raised concerns about repairs to Runway 07 and called on airport management to appear before a Senate committee.
Mombasa Senator Faki Mwihaji cited encroachment by a developer who had constructed a playing field near the airport perimeter and blocked an emergency access road. Wajir Senator Mohamed Abass declared the airport ‘a disaster in waiting.’
Eight days later, Flight 090 arrived from Kisumu in rain and darkness. According to Senator Osotsi, writing from the scene that night, the runway was flooded and the lighting system was not functioning properly.
He noted that it is widely known that such conditions regularly force evening flights to divert to Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, and he demanded to know why this particular flight had not been redirected. Kenya Airports Authority said operations at Wilson remained normal.
WHAT THE RECORD REVEALS
Examined as a body of evidence rather than a series of isolated episodes, Safarilink’s incident history reveals several recurring failure modes. Runway excursions are the most frequent category: the 2007 apron collision, the 2019 tyre burst, the ALS Dash 8 tyre failure in December 2024 and the March 2026 skid-off share a common geography, Wilson Airport, and a common theme, an aircraft leaving its intended surface.
The 2019 Mara wildebeest strike represents the hazard of operating into unsecured bush strips where wildlife management is inconsistent. The 2024 mid-air collision stands alone as an airspace management failure of the gravest kind.
What is notably absent from this list is the category of failure that most frequently features in African aviation fatality statistics: catastrophic mechanical failure leading to controlled-flight-into-terrain, or crew incapacitation in cruise.
Safarilink’s aircraft have largely performed as designed; the incidents have occurred at the margins, during takeoff, landing, ground operations and low-level flight near an airport that senators now describe as structurally inadequate.
That distinction matters for how regulators should respond, because it points away from Safarilink’s maintenance culture and toward the operating environment.
Wilson Airport is 97 years old. It was established in 1929 in what was then open land outside Nairobi.
The city has since grown around and over it. Buildings encroach on its perimeter. Developers obstruct emergency access roads. Runway 07 is under repair at a pace senators describe as incompatible with safety. Drainage fails in heavy rain. Evening lighting malfunctions.
And Nairobi’s upper airspace continues to mix commercial turboprops with training aircraft under visual-separation rules that, as March 2024 demonstrated, can have fatal consequences.
THE WET LEASE QUESTION
One detail of the March 2026 incident deserves specific scrutiny that it has not yet received. The aircraft that skidded off Wilson’s runway on Flight 090 was not owned or crewed by Safarilink in the conventional sense.
It was a De Havilland DHC-8-100, registration 5Y-BXI, operated by ALS Limited under a wet lease arrangement, meaning ALS provided not just the aircraft but also the pilots and cabin crew.
KAA’s statement confirmed that 5Y-BXI is an aircraft normally deployed for humanitarian operations on behalf of the World Food Programme and the International Committee of the Red Cross.
The wet lease is a legitimate and common commercial arrangement in African aviation. But it raises questions that regulators and the public should be pressing Safarilink to answer: what are the standards by which it selects wet lease partners?
What oversight does it exercise over their crew training, recency and qualifications? Does it conduct its own safety audits of operators flying its routes under its brand? And when an ALS aircraft on a Safarilink flight number runs off the runway at an airport where another ALS aircraft had already suffered a tyre failure fifteen months earlier, what does the contractual framework require the airline to do?
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN
The Kenya Civil Aviation Authority has repeatedly described itself as committed to international safety standards.
The Kenya Airports Authority issues statements after incidents confirming everyone is safe. Investigations are launched and preliminary reports are filed. Final reports, with binding recommendations, are slower to materialise.
The AAID’s investigation into the March 2024 mid-air collision has not produced a final public report as of the date of this publication, more than two years after two pilots died above Nairobi National Park.
Senator Osotsi has called for Wilson Airport to be closed and comprehensively upgraded before it resumes full operations.
Senate Majority Leader Cheruiyot has said something must change. Marsabit’s Chute wants management summoned before a committee.
These are the right instincts, but Kenya has heard similar demands before. The KCAA convened a closed-door meeting with Wilson-based operators after the 2019 tyre burst incidents. The UK government issued a travel warning. Airlines issued statements. And then the moment passed, until the next one.
What Kenya’s aviation sector requires is not another round of statements and closed sessions but a published, time-bound action plan for Wilson Airport’s runway, drainage, lighting and emergency response infrastructure; a public final report on the March 2024 mid-air collision; an enforceable framework for wet lease safety oversight; and meaningful wildlife management standards at bush airstrips that receive commercial passenger traffic.
Safarilink, for its part, should publish the safety audit criteria it applies to wet lease operators and confirm what additional measures it has taken since March 2024.
Thirty-nine passengers survived March 20. Two pilots did not survive March 5, 2024. The arithmetic of Kenya’s aviation near-misses is still, for now, tolerable. The question is how much longer that tolerance can reasonably be extended before the luck runs out.
There is a particular species of Kenyan politician who treats the court system as an inconvenient hobby, the DCI as a public relations problem, and the treasury of foreign investors as a personal ATM.
Trans Nzoia Senator Allan Kiprotich Chesang has, with remarkable consistency, embodied all three.
By the time the ink was dry on the latest scandal to bear his name, a Sh60.08 million fake ambulance tender engineered from the very heart of Harambee House, Kenya’s corridors of power were buzzing with a question that is no longer rhetorical: is this man constitutionally incapable of staying out of a con?
The allegations are serious, specific and, for anyone who has been paying attention, depressingly familiar.
Chesang, alongside Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo, has been named in connection with a fraud that targeted Talal Yousef Yousef Zaitoun, a Swedish businessman who arrived in Kenya in January 2026 believing he was about to secure a legitimate government contract for 500 high-roof diesel Toyota Hiace ambulances.
What he actually walked into, investigators allege, was an elaborate wash-wash theatre staged across multiple floors of a government building that is supposed to represent the highest authority of the Kenyan state.
Seven suspects were arrested on March 10, 2026, in a DCI sting that caught them mid-negotiation on the 12th floor of Harambee House.
The eight accused were arraigned on March 17. Chesang and Omollo, the alleged architects of the enterprise, remained free. The impunity was, for anyone who has followed this senator’s career, entirely on brand.
The Laptop Scam That Started It All
To understand what Chesang has allegedly done now, you have to understand what courts allege he did before.
In 2018, long before anyone had heard of Senator Chesang, a businessman named Charles Musinga of Makindu Motors walked into Harambee House Annex believing he had won a genuine government tender to supply 2,800 HP laptops to the Ministry of Devolution.
He lost Sh181 million. The people he trusted turned out to be operating an elaborate fraud ring linked to then-Deputy President William Ruto’s office. And the person courts say drove to collect those laptops, flanked by a police escort in a Range Rover bearing stickers from Parliament and the Office of the Deputy President, was Allan Chesang.
The charges laid against Chesang and six co-accused, namely Teddy Awiti, Kevin Matundura Nyongesa, Augustine Wambua Matata, Joy Wangari Kamau, James William Makokha alias Mr. Wanyonyi, and Johan Ochieng Osore, included conspiracy to defraud, making a document without authority, obtaining goods by false pretences, handling stolen goods, and abuse of office.
Seven counts in total. The case has wound its way through Milimani Law Courts for years.
As recently as March 2024, the Ksh221 million fraud case, the figure had grown as additional claims were assessed, was adjourned because Chesang could not be reached for the afternoon session.
He had attended the morning session virtually from Switzerland, claiming parliamentary business. His absence did not amuse the prosecution.
One witness testimony, recorded in court, described how Chesang and associates would entertain their victims at Ole Sereni Hotel and Karen before directing them into Harambee House Annex via the VIP lift.
The same witness recalled that after the laptops were successfully collected, the ring members told him that their next target would be an ambulance tender. That detail, surfacing in court proceedings from 2021, reads today like a playbook rather than a prophecy.
The Defence Tender That Would Not Die
If the laptop case is the headline crime, the Department of Defence tender saga is the subplot that reveals his character most nakedly.
Chesang and co-accused stand charged with obtaining Sh25 million from one Johnson Wambua Mwanzia by pretending they had acquired a tender to supply Jute Gunny Bags to the DoD. Standard wash-wash template. Forged documents. False pretences. The victim parted with his money.
What makes this case particularly illuminating is what happened next. Chesang did not fight the charges on the merits.
He applied to have them withdrawn on the grounds that he was prepared to repay Sh17 million, the amount deposited into his account.
When the magistrate declined to dismiss the case without confirmation of full repayment, and when the complainant disputed that the full sum had even been returned, Chesang watched the withdrawal application collapse for the third consecutive time. By May 2025, the court was still untangling the disputed payment. Three failed bids to quietly exit a fraud case is not bad luck. It is a strategy.
Gold, Syndicate, and a Billion-Shilling Problem
In September 2023, a fake gold syndicate was exposed operating from a house in Garden Estate, Nairobi. Among those linked to it were Nyaribari Chache MP Zaheer Jhanda and Lang’ata MP Felix Odiwuor, also known as Jalang’o. The senator in the same category was Chesang.
The DCI described a scheme targeting a Tunisian businessman who had been kept waiting in the country for nearly two weeks before the suspects were ready to execute the final con, at which point DCI officers moved in and arrested ten people. Two suspects fled by tearing through a shade net fence.
One month later, in October 2023, it happened again. A South African national, Ralph Manyaka, had purportedly imported 30 kilograms of gold from Sierra Leone.
He was told it had been confiscated in Nairobi and that he needed to pay Sh5.3 million to release the consignment. He flew to Kenya. He was taken to Kilimani, then driven to a palatial home in Runda.
The DCI, which had laid an ambush, arrested three suspects: Fauzia Wanjiru alias Issa, Shallo Fatma alias Tett, and Jackson Ochieng.
Investigators say the scam was connected to an international criminal ring spanning Kenya, Sierra Leone and DR Congo, with a Congolese national and a Sierra Leonean national among the masterminds being pursued.
The DCI published Chesang’s name as an associate of the arrested suspects. Within 24 hours, the senator and his lawyer, Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo, were at the DCI’s Kiambu Road headquarters brandishing a demand letter and threatening defamation suits.
Chesang has never sued the DCI. The deadline expired. The noise moved on. The senator remained.
The Harambee House Ambulance Con: How the Net Was Cast
The architecture of the latest scam is, frankly, audacious. On January 27, 2026, one day after Talal Yousef Yousef Zaitoun arrived in Kenya on a Turkish Airlines flight, he was escorted to Harambee House, where he was introduced to individuals who presented themselves as representatives of the National Treasury and the Ministry of Health.
They told him the Kenyan government required 500 high-roof diesel Toyota Hiace ambulances, that the contract was worth $36,025,000, and that before he could sign, he needed to provide either a performance bond or insurance coverage of three percent of the contract value.
Zaitoun chose the insurance option: $1,080,750. He transferred $470,750 equivalent to Sh60.08 million. It is this sum that the prosecution says was stolen.
Investigators say the scam relied on forged award letters and contracts purportedly signed by Ministry of Interior officials.
The key suspect, Michael Musyoki Ngumbi, has been charged with producing the forged documents.
Meetings were held in official government chambers to provide the impression of legitimacy. When Zaitoun returned on March 9 with his brother Hatim for the final stage of the deal, DCI officers were waiting. Seven suspects were arrested in real time, mid-transaction, on the 12th floor of Harambee House.
The whistle was blown by an aide inside the PS’s own office.
When investigators traced the chain of authority back, it led, according to the Nyakundi Report’s sources, directly to Raymond Omollo’s orbit. And entangled in that orbit, sources allege, was Senator Chesang.
The Ruto Connection: How Proximity to Power Buys Impunity
Chesang’s relationship with William Ruto predates his senatorial career and forms the backbone of the impunity his critics say he has enjoyed.
Before he became a senator, before he was elected on a UDA ticket in 2022, Chesang was already a visible fixture in Ruto’s political circuit, photographed with the then-Deputy President, close to Oscar Sudi and Caleb Kositany, operating within the orbit that would eventually form Kenya Kwanza.
The original laptop scam itself was executed from the Office of the Deputy President’s premises.
Witnesses in that case described Chesang arriving at Harambee House with police escorts, using Range Rovers fitted with DP office stickers, moving through the VIP channels of the government’s most protected address.
That proximity has never been purely ceremonial. When Ruto became President, Chesang became part of the loyalist Senate choir: endorsing the UDA-ODM pact, urging national unity, praising Ruto’s leadership at every available platform.
In March 2025, when the UDA-ODM cooperation agreement was formalised, Chesang was at the podium urging Trans Nzoia leaders to rally behind the president’s unity agenda.
He is described by his own supporters as a close ally of the head of state. The value of that proximity, in Kenya’s political economy, is not incidental.
There is a documented pattern with Chesang’s legal troubles: cases drag. Applications stall. Hearings get adjourned when the senator is conveniently abroad. Charges that should have resulted in prosecution years ago are still crawling through the courts.
Critics have long argued that his political insurance has made him effectively untouchable, that the same executive access which allegedly enabled his schemes also shields him from their consequences.
The ambulance case, in which Chesang and Omollo remained free as eight lower-level suspects were arraigned, fits that pattern with uncomfortable precision.
The Natembeya Problem: When Your Fiancee Worked for the Man You Were Attacking
Even outside the criminal courts, Chesang’s political career has been defined by a special brand of self-inflicted turbulence.
His running battle with Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya became a soap opera that the county could not look away from.
Chesang repeatedly alleged that over Sh800 million in devolved funds went unaccounted for under Natembeya’s watch, presenting himself as the accountability hawk, the man holding the executive to account.
Natembeya’s counter was devastating in its simplicity. While Chesang was publicly excoriating his administration, his own fiancee, Chanelle Kittony, was serving as a Cabinet Executive Committee member in Natembeya’s county government, first overseeing Gender, Sports and Youth, then Roads, Energy and Infrastructure.
The governor named the appointment publicly. The hypocrisy was naked and complete. A man attacking corruption with one hand while his future wife drew a salary from the accused government with the other.
The Luxury Fleet and the Lifestyle Questions Nobody Is Supposed to Ask
When Chesang first surfaced in public consciousness, he was a young man who liked to boast that he made his first million in Form One, playing table tennis at a tournament in Congo Brazzaville.
Whether one believes that particular origin story is, at this point, beside the question.
What is verifiable is the lifestyle that followed. Before he became a senator, he was already rotating through high-end vehicles, Range Rovers, E-class Mercedes Benzes, some fitted with stickers from the Office of the Deputy President, others bearing parliamentary plates.
He owned a share in entertainment venues including Blend Club in Nairobi and The Garage in Thika. He ran the Allan Chesang Foundation, positioning himself as a philanthropist. At 31 he was photographed in a private jet.
Investigators recovered DCI exhibits from his premises during the laptop case: KRA stickers, a document showing suspects had signed a deal for equipment worth Sh317 million, and 700 laptops.
Kenya Insights is aware of additional allegations, sourced from investigative accounts, that Chesang ran a network involving loan schemes operated through a company called Amspex, which banked at Standard Chartered, with proxies routing proceeds through Dubai-linked investment fronts. These allegations have not been tested in court and Chesang has denied association with such ventures.
A Pattern, Not a Coincidence
There is a consistent anatomy to what Chesang is alleged to have done across multiple cases. First, access to a government building gives the scheme its veneer of legitimacy. Second, forged documents, whether tender award letters, contracts, or purchase orders, provide the paperwork to convince the victim.
Third, a network of complicit intermediaries, lawyers, brokers, government-adjacent fixers, receive and disperse the proceeds.
Fourth, when the walls close in, legal guns come out, demand letters are fired at investigators, political friends are activated, and the matter is dragged through the courts until everyone loses interest. Fifth, the senator remains free.
The Department of Defence gunny bags. The September 2023 garden estate gold syndicate. The October 2023 Runda gold scam. Now the Harambee House ambulance fraud.
Five separate matters in which Chesang’s name has appeared, in court records or in DCI publications, in connection with the same template: forged government documents, foreign or domestic victims, large sums extracted, and the senator at or near the centre.
His consistent response to each: I know nothing, I am being persecuted, my lawyers will act. And yet the pattern accumulates.
What Happens Next
The Directorate of Criminal Investigations and the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission face a straightforward test. Eight people of lesser political standing have been arraigned. The two men who are alleged to have designed the system, Omollo and Chesang, have not. Legal experts have stated publicly that holding high-ranking officials accountable is essential if the ambulance case is to serve as anything more than theatre.
Pressure is mounting. International investors, and the Swedish businessman who lost his money is not the last such investor Kenya needs to attract, are watching.
For his part, Chesang has made no public statement on the ambulance scandal at the time of publication. His Senate profile continues. His political connections remain intact. The wedding photographs from November 2025 are still up, all lilac florals and Ruto in the front row.
But the questions are louder now than they have ever been.
A man can deny one scandal. He can call the second politically motivated. By the time the fifth finds his name in the same kind of documents, featuring the same kind of forged contracts, targeting the same kind of credulous foreign investor, the denials require an audience that is running out of patience.
It began as another Nairobi road-rage clip. A dashcam video, thirty-three seconds long, filmed along a tree-lined Nairobi thoroughfare on Monday, March 17, and uploaded to X by motor assessor Wangai Mwaniki. The grey 2023 Range Rover Vogue in the clip, registration KDT 579P, cuts aggressively through gridlocked lanes, its dashboard blazing red and blue emergency lights, forcing matatus, sedans, trucks and boda-boda riders to scramble out of its path.
Overlaid text reads: “In Kenya when you have money traffic rules don’t exist.” Within hours, 290,000 views. By the time Nairobi woke up Tuesday morning, the clip had become something far more consequential than a viral rant.
The vehicle’s registered owner, confirmed through official National Transport and Safety Authority records circulated in the thread by a follow-up user, is Ahmed Hussein Ayoub Ali Dinar, the Sultan of the Fur tribe, Sudan’s largest ethnic community and the people over whom the Darfur conflict has been most catastrophically waged.
And in January 2024, that same Sultan sat across a table in a Nairobi hotel from Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known universally as Hemedti, the commander of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary militia that the United States government formally designated a perpetrator of genocide in January 2025.
The screenshot of that meeting, posted in the replies beneath the traffic video by user Shoba Gatimu with the caption “The plot thickens”, detonated a second wave of outrage. Nairobi was no longer discussing dangerous driving. It was discussing who, exactly, was behind the wheel and why he appeared to be moving through its streets entirely untouchable.
A NAME WEIGHTED WITH HISTORY
The name Ali Dinar is not merely a family surname in Sudan. It carries the freight of an entire civilisational epoch.
The original Sultan Ali Dinar ruled the independent Darfur Sultanate from 1898 until 1916, when British colonial forces killed him and annexed Darfur into the Anglo-Egyptian Sudan, ending more than two centuries of Keira dynasty sovereignty over a territory the size of France.
He is remembered across Darfur as a symbol of resistance, a man who proclaimed jihad against British occupation and whose capital, El Fasher, was a seat of Islamic scholarship, trade and culture connecting central Sudan to the whole of northern Africa.
It is precisely that symbolic weight that makes the modern Sultan’s political choices so contested. Ahmed Hussein Ayoub Ali Dinar was elected in June 2015 by the Fur tribe’s Shura and Notables’ councils as Sultan for the entire Fur people, renewing his family’s ceremonial claim to the seat his great-grandfather died defending.
He has presented himself publicly as a mediator, a voice for peace in Sudan’s devastating civil war, and a traditional leader committed to dialogue between all parties. Kenyan President William Ruto received him at State House, publicly engaging with him as the leader of the Fur in Darfur, alongside Sudan Liberation Movement figures.
Yet the RSF, the militia now fighting to dismember the Sudanese state and which the United Nations Fact-Finding Mission has documented committing genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity against Darfur’s non-Arab communities, including the Fur, has invested heavily in the Sultan’s legitimacy. And by all available evidence, that investment appears mutual.
THE HEMEDTI MEETING IN NAIROBI
In January 2024, Hemedti arrived in Nairobi on what analysts described as a tour designed to legitimise the RSF as a governing force.
He met President Ruto at the Kenyan State House, receiving what multiple media accounts described as an elaborately warm reception, complete with traditional dancers and a full presidential pavilion welcome at JKIA that observers noted was notably more extravagant than that afforded to Sudanese Armed Forces Commander General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Khartoum recalled its ambassador in protest.
Hemedti also met Ahmed Ali Dinar in Nairobi. The RSF commander posted about the encounter on X, saying he appreciated what he described as the Sultan’s neutral stance in rejecting the war and devoting himself to supporting Darfurian communities.
Both men, according to the Sudan Times, pledged to coordinate efforts to alleviate suffering and achieve what they called sustainable peace and security.
To critics and to many Sudanese from Darfur, that characterisation of neutrality was grotesque. The RSF and its allied Arab militias were by that point already implicated in the massacre of up to 15,000 people in El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur, a slaughter the UN Panel of Experts documented in a January 2024 report.
The RSF’s predecessor formations, the Janjaweed, had been responsible for the ethnic killing, mass rape, and displacement of some 2.7 million people and the deaths of up to 300,000 in the original Darfur conflict beginning in 2003. A militia meeting with the paramount traditional leader of the Fur people and framing it as a peace gesture was, to Sudanese human rights organisations, a provocation dressed as diplomacy.
DARFUR’S WOUND THAT NEVER HEALED
To understand the stakes of any alignment between the modern Sultan and the RSF requires understanding Darfur’s history not as a series of events but as a continuous, unresolved trauma. When rebels from Darfur’s non-Arab communities launched an uprising against Khartoum in 2003, accusing the Arab-dominated government of systematic discrimination, then-President Omar al-Bashir responded by deploying the Arab tribal militias known as the Janjaweed.
The United States designated the resulting campaign as genocide in 2004. The UN Security Council referred the situation to the International Criminal Court in 2005, the first such referral in ICC history and the first involving allegations of the crime of genocide.
Al-Bashir formally reconstituted the Janjaweed into the RSF in 2013, giving the militia institutional form and placing it under Hemedti’s command.
Between 2013 and 2023, the RSF evolved from a counterinsurgency instrument into an autonomous economic and military power, controlling gold mines, border trade networks and a private army. When the RSF broke from the Sudanese Armed Forces in April 2023, the war that erupted was devastating in its speed and its savagery.
The RSF seized most of Khartoum and swept through Darfur. By late 2024 and into 2025, the RSF had laid siege to El Fasher, the last SAF stronghold in Darfur and the ancestral capital of the Darfur Sultanate that the historical Ali Dinar died defending, holding 1.5 million people under conditions the ICC’s deputy prosecutor described to the UN Security Council as a campaign of widespread mass criminality and collective torture.
The RSF, during this siege, also destroyed the Sultan Ali Dinar Palace in El Fasher in January 2025, a site African human rights organisations called a deliberate act of cultural erasure, an attempt to wipe out the symbols that give Darfur’s communities their collective identity. The same militia had been meeting with the historical sultan’s modern claimant in Nairobi hotel rooms.
In January 2025, the outgoing Biden administration formally declared that the RSF and allied militias had committed genocide in Sudan’s Darfur region, a determination that led to direct sanctions on Hemedti and several RSF-linked companies.
The European Union and United Kingdom followed with their own designations and sanctions on RSF commanders. The ICC’s deputy prosecutor signalled in early 2025 that arrest warrants for crimes committed since April 2023 in West Darfur were imminent.
KENYA AS RSF’S CONTINENTAL BASE
The Sultan’s comfortable presence in Nairobi, Range Rover and emergency lights included, does not exist in a vacuum. Kenya has become, whether by deliberate policy or geopolitical convenience, the RSF’s most important continental staging ground. President Ruto’s administration has extended to the RSF a degree of access and hospitality that has placed Kenya in direct diplomatic confrontation with Khartoum and drawn formal censure from rights organisations, civil society coalitions and, ultimately, the United States Senate.
In February 2025, RSF leadership and allied armed movements gathered at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre in Nairobi and signed a political charter creating what they called the Government of Peace and Unity, a parallel administration for RSF-controlled territories in Sudan.
The Kenyan government, through Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, admitted providing the RSF with the platform and defended it as an exercise in Kenya’s long tradition of conflict mediation.
Sudan declared it an act of hostility, recalled its ambassador and imposed a ban on Kenyan imports. Human rights organisations, including the International Commission of Jurists Kenya chapter and the Kenya Human Rights Commission, issued a joint statement describing Kenya as complicit in mass atrocities.
They noted the RSF killed more than 433 civilians, including women and children, in an assault in Southern White Nile State during the very days its leadership was gathered in Nairobi.
The Geneva-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime, in a November 2025 report, documented Kenyan-registered aircraft landing in RSF-controlled Nyala and offloading supplies, and separately transporting wounded RSF fighters.
Bellingcat published an investigation in June 2025 revealing Kenyan military ammunition crates in an RSF depot near Khartoum. The Kenyan government denied arms supply to the RSF. In August 2025, the United States Senate opened a review of Kenya’s major non-NATO ally status, conferred in 2024, in part over the Kenya-RSF question.
In late 2023, Ruto had flown to Juba on the presidential jet alongside RSF Deputy Commander Abdulrahim Dagalo, Hemedti’s brother, who carries US sanctions for allegedly fuelling Sudan’s civil war.
Analysts and critics noted that the RSF had essentially treated Nairobi as a de facto capital for its international diplomacy, its political charter-signing ceremonies and, apparently, the residential arrangements of at least one prominent ally.
ILLEGAL LIGHTS AND A LEGAL FRAMEWORK THAT APPLIES TO EVERYONE ELSE
Under Section 34 of Kenya’s Traffic Act Cap 403 and Rule 83 of the Traffic Rules, red and blue flashing emergency lights and sirens are restricted to police vehicles, fire engines and ambulances. The Order of Precedence Act of 2014 extends the privilege of sirens to the President, Deputy President, Speakers of Parliament and the Chief Justice.
The law is explicit that no private vehicle may be fitted with flashing lights, LED light bars or strobe systems of any kind without NTSA authorisation, which is not granted to private citizens or foreign nationals living in Nairobi.
The NTSA issued a circular to all Regional Police Commanders as recently as May 2024 directing law enforcement to take legal action against any unauthorised use of strobe lights, light bars, sirens or lead-and-chase vehicles, citing complaints about harassment on Nairobi roads and highways by unauthorized persons.
Section 58 of the Traffic Act makes the offence punishable by a fine of up to Sh400,000, imprisonment of up to two years, or both.
The Range Rover Vogue in the video, registered to the Sultan in April 2025 according to NTSA records circulating in the viral thread, appears fitted with exactly the kind of emergency lighting the law prohibits for private vehicles. The vehicle’s Kenyan registration raises its own questions. The Sultan is Sudanese.
He is resident in Nairobi. His vehicle carries a 2025 registration. Whether he travels on a diplomatic passport, holds a residency permit or relies on some other protected status that Kenya’s authorities have extended to him remains, as of publication, a question that neither the NTSA, the Kenya Police nor the relevant ministries have addressed.
As of Thursday morning, the NTSA had issued no public statement on the incident. The Sultan’s office had not responded to requests for comment.
‘NTSA HAIWEZI GUZA YEYE’
Mwaniki’s original post tagged the NTSA with a knowing laugh: “@ntsa_kenya huyu arudi driving school pia?” Should this one go back to driving school too? The replies swelled with a mixture of outrage, dark humour and the particular resigned fatalism of Nairobi motorists who have watched high-powered vehicles move through the city as though the law existed for everyone else. “NTSA haiwezi guza yeye,” wrote one commenter. NTSA cannot touch him. “He is not even Kenyan!” wrote another. “Unless that fool is a police officer responding to an emergency, he has no right of way!!” a third commenter added.
What distinguishes this episode from the regular catalogue of Nairobi road impunity complaints is not merely the identity of the registered owner. It is what that identity represents in the context of Kenya’s increasingly fraught entanglement with Sudan’s civil war.
A man publicly photographed alongside the commander of a militia designated a perpetrator of genocide, whose formal traditional role as Sultan of the Fur people makes his RSF alignment all the more symbolically charged, appears to be moving through Nairobi roads with what the video depicts as the confidence of someone who knows no traffic officer will flag him down.
Kenya’s roads are among the most dangerous in Africa. The NTSA records thousands of road fatalities annually, with reckless driving, impunity and corruption at traffic enforcement level repeatedly identified as systemic causes. Each incident like this one feeds a public narrative that Kenyan road law is, in practice, a tiered system: merciless toward matatu drivers and boda-boda operators, invisible when the vehicle is expensive enough, the plates are the right kind, or the owner is connected to the people who make the rules.
QUESTIONS THAT REMAIN UNANSWERED
Several questions arising from this incident demand formal answers, and Kenya Insights has submitted enquiries to the NTSA, the Directorate of Immigration and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Under what immigration and residency status does Sultan Ahmed Ali Dinar reside in Kenya? Has he or any entity on his behalf applied for and received any form of diplomatic status in Kenya? Who authorised, if anyone, the installation of emergency-grade flashing lights on the vehicle registered to him? Has Kenya’s government, in extending hospitality to RSF-linked figures including the Sultan, conducted any due diligence on the implications given the US genocide designation against the RSF?
The broader question, which the Sudanese diaspora community in Nairobi and human rights organisations have been raising with increasing urgency since the February 2025 RSF parallel government ceremony at KICC, is whether Kenya’s political relationship with Hemedti and his allied civilian and traditional leaders has extended into a permissive environment in which those figures operate in Nairobi with privileges that Kenyan law does not formally recognise and that Kenyan institutions appear unwilling to examine.
The irony that the RSF, which in January 2025 dynamited the palace of the Sultan Ali Dinar in El Fasher, the very monument to the Fur people’s sovereignty and cultural identity that the historical sultan built and died defending, should simultaneously be cultivating his modern successor in Nairobi hotel rooms and Nairobi streets will not be lost on those Sudanese who have lived through the war.
The RSF erased the old sultan from the landscape of Darfur. In Nairobi, his descendant drives with emergency lights, and no one seems willing to ask who gave him permission.