The Kenya Meteorological Department has forecast a poor to fair distribution of rainfall across most parts of the country during the March to May (MAM) 2025 season, with the peak expected in April. However, the Coastal region is expected to experience the heaviest rains in May.
David Gikungu, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, issued the statement on Wednesday, outlining that some areas will receive near to above-average rainfall, while others are expected to experience below-average rainfall.
“During the MAM season, several regions are likely to face poor to fair distribution of rainfall in both time and space,” Gikungu said.
The authorities warned that the expected rainfall could have both positive and negative impacts across various sectors, including agriculture, water resources, health, transport, and disaster management.
The forecast suggests that the Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley, and parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley will likely receive near to above-average rainfall, continuing from February with occasional breaks.
On the other hand, the Central Rift Valley, Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County), Northwestern Kenya, the Coastal region, and parts of the Southeastern lowlands are expected to receive near to below-average rainfall, with occasional dry spells.
“The onset of the season is expected to be normal to late, with occasional dry spells,” the statement read, highlighting the possibility of isolated storms in some areas.
The department also forecasted warmer-than-average temperatures nationwide, with higher probabilities in Northeastern Kenya, the Coast, Southeastern lowlands, and the Highlands East of the Rift Valley.
The North Coast region, including Lamu and Kilifi, is expected to receive below-average rainfall, with poor distribution and late onset between the second and third week of April.
Similarly, Northeastern counties such as Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo are projected to receive below-normal rainfall, with an undefined cessation date.
Farmers, policymakers, and disaster response teams have been urged to take necessary precautions in preparation for the upcoming season.
“It is imperative to stay updated with subsequent forecasts and updates,” the statement emphasized, noting that short-term climate drivers, such as tropical cyclones and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), could influence weather patterns.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has advised Kenyans to monitor daily, weekly, and monthly forecasts and rely on official updates for any significant weather changes.
