US President-elect Donald Trump is set to assume office for a second term Monday in a transfer of power that promises to bring a seismic overhaul for the federal government, from its policies at home and abroad to its expansive workforce.
Trump will be formally sworn-in to office Monday just before noon and will shortly thereafter sign off on an onslaught of ready-to-go executive orders that will send shockwaves across a broad cross-section of American society: from immigration to the career federal workforce to trade. And let’s not forget about the droves of his supporters who were convicted of crimes related to the Jan. 6, 2021 assault on the Capitol.
Trump has mused publicly that he would sign the orders from a “tiny desk” at the Capitol rather than wait to return to the White House to formally kickstart his policies. It is unclear if he will, in fact, do so or if he will await his return to the executive mansion Monday afternoon.
Immigration crackdown to headline Trump’s agenda
Trump has vowed to rapidly institute a hardline crackdown on undocumented migrants, with reports suggesting that large-scale Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids and deportations could begin as soon as Tuesday. The first city in Trump’s crosshairs is likely to be the midwestern metropolis of Chicago.
Multiple reports said the city would likely be the site of the initial wave of immigration sweeps, prompting incoming Trump officials to suggest that the plans could change.
“We’re reviewing any plans in Chicago because of the leak,” incoming border czar Tom Homan told ABC News, further alleging that the reports may have imperiled officer safety.
Still, he remained adamant that the Trump administration would not be deterred from carrying out its deportation plans in major cities across the nation.
“When the president gets sworn in, ICE officers are going to have a new priority of seeking out those who are considered a public safety threat and a national security threat,” said Homan.
Immigration is likely to feature prominently in Trump’s initial tranche of executive orders, which some reports have suggested could number over 100 in what promises to make for a sharp break with the policies of the outgoing Biden administration.
Included among them is expected to be a national emergency declaration that will free up authorities for Trump to dramatically increase security measures at the southern border and facilitate the deportations of potentially millions of people. He is also likely to end the “catch and release” policy, which allows migrants to be released from custody while their cases wind through the judicial system, finish his long-vowed US-Mexico border wall, establish new migrant detention centers and expand on executive power to fast-track deportations.
Trump is also likely to reinstate his “Remain in Mexico” program, which requires migrants seeking asylum in the US to wait in Mexico while their cases are adjudicated.
All of this will be in service of his vow to “launch the largest deportation program in American history” shortly after he assumes office. He may also attempt to begin the process of ending “birthright citizenship,” or the policy of granting citizenship to anyone born in the US. But Trump has already acknowledged that doing so via executive action may not be possible because it is a right enshrined in the US Constitution.
Trade overhaul
Perhaps just below immigration on the self-described deal-maker’s list of top priorities is trade. The president-elect has vowed to impose steep tariffs on goods from countries around the world, whether it be close allies, or superpower rival China. That includes 25% tariffs all goods imported from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on top of existing penalties.
Canada, Mexico and China represent the top three US trading partners respectively. Combined, they account for a whopping trade volume of over $2.2 trillion, according to the office of the US Trade Representative.
It is unclear if those tariffs would be on top of, or include, a 10%-20% tariff Trump has said he would impose on all US imports.
The president-elect has said the duties, which are paid by American importers, would be imposed on day one of his administration, but most tariffs require that the trade representative carry out a review, which can sometimes take months, before they can be imposed. Trump may instead order the office to begin that process as soon as he re-takes the presidency.
He could also invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 and declare a national emergency to impose the penalties. But doing so risks spooking markets, an action that could imperil Trump’s reputation for prioritizing economic growth early on in his second term.
Trump has said that he would set up what he is calling an “external revenue service” to collect the tariffs as well as other duties and all “revenue that comes from foreign sources.”
“We will begin charging those that make money off of us with Trade, and they will start paying, FINALLY, their fair share. January 20, 2025, will be the birth date of the External Revenue Service. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” he said on Truth Social on Jan. 14.
Second pull-out from Paris climate agreement, prioritization of fossil fuels
While the ins-and-outs of Trump’s economic policy remain uncertain, another campaign trail pledge will be far easier for him to rapidly execute. Trump withdrew the US from the Paris climate agreement, which enshrines the UN’s climate objectives, in 2019. President Joe Biden quickly re-entered the accord on his first day in office, an action that Trump can now reverse as soon as he is sworn in. The Wall Street Journal reported that the order to do so has already been written and awaits Trump’s signature Monday afternoon.
That would be just part of the president-elect’s efforts to roll back his successor’s climate agenda. He is also likely to annul federal pollution standards for new vehicles that are meant to incentivize manufactures into building electric and hybrid vehicles and expand fossil fuel production.
Over the longer term, Trump may seek to undercut the production of renewable energy sources, including wind farms, which he has repeatedly derided for a variety of reasons, calling them “an economic and environmental disaster.”
Ending conflicts worldwide
Trump has long insisted that he would put an end to raging conflicts around the world when he assumes office. That includes the wars against Ukraine and Gaza.
He said in May 2023 that he would be able to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours after sitting down with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“It will be over. It will be absolutely over,” Trump said during a CNN town hall.
His close aides, however, have sought to throw cold water on any notion that an agreement will be quickly struck.
“The Russian casualties, the Ukrainian casualties, the damage to their cities — this is a war that needs to end. And I think he (Trump) can do it in the near term,” Keith Kellogg, a retired US Army lieutenant general whom Trump has tapped to be his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, told Fox New on Jan. 11.
“I really do have a lot of confidence in his ability to actually get to a position where this war is actually over. And I think what people need to understand — he’s not trying to give something to Putin or to the Russians. He’s actually trying to save Ukraine and save their sovereignty, and he’s going to make sure that it’s equitable and that it’s fair,” he added.
The conflict is set to enter its third year in February.
And with a three-phase ceasefire deal recently going into effect in Gaza, it remains unclear if Trump will work to ensure it does not falter in the months ahead, or if he will allow Israel a free hand to resume its campaign.
Trump is also likely to return to his “Maximum Pressure” campaign against Iran and has reportedly planned to re-impose sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s oil sector.
– Pardons for Jan. 6 convicts
The president-elect has vowed to pardon many of the nearly 1,600 people who have been charged with various offenses linked to their involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021 assault on the Capitol. Trump’s supporters that day sought to violently prevent a key constitutional step ahead of Biden’s inauguration, forcing lawmakers to flee to secure locations as they overran police barricades and smashed their way into the federal legislature.
It is unclear whom Trump plans to pardon and if he will go ahead and use his powers to clean the slate of those convicted of assaulting police officers.
Vows for Panama Canal, Greenland, Canada?
Trump has declined to rule out the use of military force to seize control of the Panama Canal and Greenland, two objectives that he has become increasingly vocal about in the months leading up to his inauguration.
He has also threatened to use “high-level” tariffs to compel Denmark to sell its self-governing territory of Greenland, claiming the US needs to take control of Greenland “for national security purposes.”
Insofar as Canada is concerned, Trump has ruled out going to war to make the country the 51st US state but has said he wants “get rid of that artificially drawn line,” referring to the US-Canada border. Instead, Trump said he would use “economic force” to force Canada into capitulating.
“We’re spending hundreds of billions a year to protect it. We’re spending hundreds of billions a year to take care of Canada. We lose in trade deficits,” he bemoaned.
