Kenya Insights

Tag: Ruto-Raila Deal

  • Will Ruto Install Raila Odinga as PM if the AUC Bid Fails?

    Will Ruto Install Raila Odinga as PM if the AUC Bid Fails?

     

    President William Ruto’s political strategy is starting to look precarious. As mounting difficulties threaten his grip on power, he seems to see Raila Odinga as his potential savior.

    Voices in political circles now suggest that attacking Raila is akin to poking at Ruto’s raw nerve.

    Once, members of the Kenya Kwanza alliance openly criticized Raila. They’ve gone silent now, possibly fearing Ruto’s growing dependency on the opposition leader.

    Impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who has been in private discussions post-impeachment, reportedly laments, “I wish I knew.”

    Ruto’s push for Raila’s African Union Commission (AUC) chair bid appears strategic. It started before the Gen Z revolution, but now Ruto realizes he needs Raila more in Kenyan politics than in Addis Ababa.

    Initially, Ruto believed that sidelining Raila would help him consolidate power for his 2027 re-election bid. The plan aimed to dismantle the Azimio coalition that backed Raila in the 2022 election.

    With Raila out of the picture, many believed Ruto’s path to re-election would be smooth.

    On the contrary, Ruto’s outreach to Raila via the National Dialogue Committee became a game-changer.

    Ruto had counted on opposition protests driven by Raila to diminish his approval ratings. But that backfired, as Raila remained influential.

     

    Appointing Raila Odinga as PM, Shifting Alliances and Political Pressure

    The National Dialogue Committee featured Ruto’s allies, including Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichungw’ah, while Raila’s Azimio faction was led by Kalonzo Musyoka. After discussions with Raila, Ruto hoped to change perceptions about his unpopular policies. The surge of discontent, particularly on issues like the cost of living, has added pressure.

    The Gen Z revolution has reshaped political alliances across Kenya. Young activists align with Raila, who satisfies their calls for accountability. Their backing from parents and community leaders gives strength to their cause. Political insiders suggest Ruto, once dismissive, now views Gen Z as a significant force.

    The Gen Z movement has caused political chaos, with protests disrupting the status quo. Ruto’s administration witnessed instances of violence during protests in areas like Githurai and Kiambu. Ruto and Raila recognized that if the Gen Zs united with Raila’s supporters, the outcome could be disastrous for Ruto.

    Thus, Ruto’s administration was forced to engage Raila in the local political landscape to avert a crisis. By sidelining other parties in Azimio, Ruto showed a clear preference for consolidating power with Raila’s ODM instead.

    After the violence, several appointments from ODM to Ruto’s cabinet signaled a shift. Ruto seemingly relied on Raila to reestablish calm and stabilize his leadership. The political landscape is evolving: Gachagua’s very public impeachment has weakened Ruto’s grip on the critical Kikuyu vote.

    Raila as the Emergent Kingmaker

    With Ruto’s connections waning among the youth and backlash from Gachagua’s impeachment, Raila may be Ruto’s only hope. Many observers suggest that Ruto now views Raila as a potential kingmaker for the 2027 election. If Raila wins the AUC chair position, his leverage could dramatically change the political landscape.

    The prospect of Raila exiting the local stage to serve in the AU could further destabilize Ruto’s ambitions. Without Raila, the ODM could suffer, and Luhya and Luo support might dwindle. Many in ODM fear that lacking Raila as a leader in politics could lead to devastating losses at the polls.

    Should Raila’s AUC bid fail, he could return to reshape ODM, reigniting his role as a leading opposition figure. But at 80, pressure may mount for him to consider retirement. Raila’s political future hinges on this AU bid, and failure could lead to conflict within the opposition as power vacuums emerge.

    Ruto’s recent decisions demonstrate a shift in strategy. As he tries to strengthen alliances ahead of 2027, he is moving quickly to craft a coalition that accommodates Raila. The looming presence of the Somali community and other political dynamics suggest Ruto is recalibrating his approach to secure necessary support.

    With the Kalenjin and Kikuyu votes dwindling, Ruto’s collaboration with Raila could be crucial in combating political erosion.

    If Raila aligns with Ruto, it will allow Ruto to maintain a foothold in key urban centers like Nairobi and Mombasa. Ruto’s political future may rest entirely on navigating these alliances wisely.

    Ultimately, the outcome of Raila’s AUC bid could reshape Kenya’s political alliances and Ruto’s prospects for re-election.

    Ruto needs Raila’s leadership experience to stabilize his party and re-engage with voters. As political tensions rise, all eyes will remain fixed on whether Ruto plans to install Raila as Prime Minister should the AUC bid falter.

    The unfolding political drama reveals a complex landscape where allegiances change quickly. In this unpredictable environment, Ruto must adapt and secure his position, making Raila an essential partner in any future political endeavor.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kV-O__1Lt4A

     

  • Owalo Allied Politicians Face Political Isolation After Ruto-Raila Deal

    Owalo Allied Politicians Face Political Isolation After Ruto-Raila Deal

    The recent formation of a broad-based government between William Ruto and Raila Odinga has left several politicians from Luo Nyanza politically isolated.

    Many of these politicians, who once backed Raila’s ODM party but later aligned with Ruto, now find themselves sidelined.

    With Raila’s entry into the government, Ruto no longer seems to value their support, leaving them without political influence.

    Owalo Allied Politicians

    Owalo Allied Politicians and Ex- ODM Members Lose Political Ground in Luo Nyanza

    Several Members of Parliament (MPs) and former MPs from Luo Nyanza frequently visited former ICT Cabinet Secretary Eliud Owalo, both at his office in Nairobi and his home in Siaya County.

    Owalo, who was a key figure in the political landscape, provided these politicians with financial support for their activities.

    This included donations for local fundraising events (harambees) and relief food distributions. However, since Owalo’s dismissal from the cabinet, these MPs have lost their political backing.

    As the new political environment takes shape, these MPs now struggle to navigate the political scene in Luo Nyanza.

    They have become politically insignificant and lack the power they once wielded under Owalo’s guidance. Many of these former allies relied heavily on Owalo’s resources, and his exit has left them without a clear path forward.

    Political Marginalization in Parliament

    The marginalization of these rebel MPs became evident during the recent parliamentary debate on the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

    While Raila’s loyalists took center stage, the former ODM rebels, now aligned with Ruto, were relegated to the sidelines.

    Only two MPs—Caroli Omondi of Suba South and David Ochieng of Ugenya—had the opportunity to speak briefly during the debate.

    Other ODM rebel MPs, including Paul Abuor (Rongo), Mark Nyamita (Uriri), Gideon Ochanda (Bondo), and Elisha Odhiambo (Gem), could only watch and wait to cast their votes.

    Despite their previous financial backing from Owalo to undermine Raila’s influence, these MPs have failed to achieve their objectives.

    They now find themselves politically insignificant within the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

    Owalo and Allied Politicians Struggle to Regain Influence

    The situation for these rebel MPs worsened after Owalo’s appointment as Deputy Chief of Staff for Performance and Delivery Management, which placed him in State House.

    This move made it difficult for his former political allies to maintain contact with him. With Owalo’s political power weakened and his projects in their constituencies halted, the MPs face growing frustration.

    Projects initiated by Owalo ceased soon after his removal from the cabinet, leaving them without answers for their constituents. Attempts to meet with Internal Security Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo have also failed.

    Omollo, who has kept a low profile in political matters, is said to have a positive relationship with Raila, making him unwilling to associate with the rebel MPs. This has further alienated them from both Ruto’s government and Raila’s inner circle.

    Uncertain Future for Rebel MPs

    The future looks bleak for these MPs as they face an uncertain path ahead of the 2027 elections. ODM, led by Raila, has already initiated steps to expel them from the party. However, a court injunction has temporarily halted this expulsion.

    Despite this legal reprieve, the MPs are not allowed to participate in ODM’s nomination process for the next elections, leaving them with limited options.

    Their remaining choices are to run as independent candidates or to join other political parties.

    Given their diminished political influence and lack of support from both Ruto and Raila, their prospects in the 2027 elections appear grim.

    Many political analysts believe that without the backing of either ODM or Kenya Kwanza, these MPs may struggle to maintain their seats in the next election cycle.

    In conclusion, the political landscape in Luo Nyanza has shifted dramatically following the Ruto-Raila government deal.

    Rebel MPs who once thrived under Owalo’s support now face political isolation and uncertainty. With both Ruto and Raila focusing on other allies, these politicians are left in a precarious position as they navigate their future in Kenyan politics.