President William Ruto is among the founding members expected to grace ODM@20 celebrations in Mombasa this weekend—the Orange Democratic Movement’s first national gathering since the death of its founder, Raila Odinga.
The three-day event marks a turning point in Kenya’s political landscape, bringing together ODM veterans and new power brokers eager to inherit Raila’s political base.
With the 2027 elections fast approaching, the race for ODM’s backing has intensified, and Ruto’s presence at the event is being read as a bold strategic move to cement control over the late Odinga’s support zones.
ODM@20 Becomes Political Battlefield for Raila’s Successors
ODM@20 is more than an anniversary—it is a political test of loyalty and influence.
For the first time since Raila’s passing, ODM will hold a national convention to celebrate its 20-year journey, from its roots in the 2005 “Orange” referendum movement to becoming one of Kenya’s most powerful political parties.
Ruto, a founding member of ODM and one of the “Pentagon” stalwarts alongside Musalia Mudavadi, Najib Balala, and Charity Ngilu, is expected to use the platform to reinforce his ties with ODM structures and Raila’s grassroots networks.
Insiders claim Raila’s dying wish was to see all original ODM members reunite to honour the movement’s legacy. Acting ODM leader Senator Oburu Odinga and Executive Director Oduor Ong’wen confirmed Ruto’s invitation, noting it aligned with that wish.
But behind the unity message lies a fierce political chess game. Both President Ruto and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka are scrambling for Raila’s strongholds, particularly in Luo Nyanza, Western, and the Coast regions. While Kalonzo has declined the invitation, Ruto’s attendance has been read as a masterstroke—one that may tilt the succession battle in his favour.
Ruto’s Strategic Advantage over Kalonzo
Ruto’s re-entry into ODM circles has unsettled Kalonzo, whose political relationship with Raila has been checkered by betrayal and mistrust.
In 2007, Kalonzo and his allies—including then ODM-Kenya Secretary-General Dan Maanzo—broke away from Raila’s camp, taking the ODM-K party name and registration documents. Their move left Raila technically partyless just months before the general election.
The split forced Raila to seek help from lawyer Mugambi Imanyara, who had registered the original ODM Party. Imanyara sold the party to Raila, saving his presidential bid and reshaping Kenya’s political map.
Kalonzo’s defection to President Mwai Kibaki’s side later that year, during the disputed 2007 elections, deepened mistrust within the opposition ranks and contributed to the post-election chaos that followed.
While Kalonzo insists his decision was based on principle, many ODM veterans still see him as the man who deserted Raila at his weakest moment. His refusal to attend ODM@20 has only reinforced perceptions that he remains unwilling to reconcile with Raila’s political lineage.
Ruto, on the other hand, remained loyal to Raila throughout the 2007 campaign, rallying the vote-rich Rift Valley behind ODM and securing the movement’s strongest base outside Nyanza.
Now, nearly two decades later, the tables have turned. Raila’s passing, combined with ODM’s broad-based partnership with Ruto’s administration, gives the president a natural advantage in consolidating ODM’s remaining power structures.
The Battle for ODM’s Blessing in 2027
ODM@20’s significance stretches far beyond nostalgia. The event’s outcome may define Kenya’s 2027 presidential race.
ODM remains the only party with a truly national presence and a loyal grassroots following. Whoever secures its endorsement—or even its quiet cooperation—will hold a massive edge heading into the elections.
Analysts say Ruto’s move to attend the celebrations is calculated to achieve three things:
- Cement his image as the natural heir to Raila’s political base.
- Undercut Kalonzo’s attempt to present himself as Raila’s legitimate successor.
- Signal reconciliation and political maturity, appealing to ODM loyalists who value unity after years of division.
By attending ODM@20, Ruto positions himself as the statesman capable of completing Raila’s unfinished mission of national inclusivity and economic transformation. His alliance with former ODM members such as Mudavadi and Balala strengthens that perception.
Kalonzo’s decision to skip the event may prove costly. Many in ODM view his absence as political arrogance—a continuation of the 2007 betrayal that fractured the movement. Without ODM’s endorsement or grassroots backing, his path to the presidency narrows dramatically.
Honouring Raila’s Legacy While Shaping the Future
The ODM@20 celebrations, running from November 14 to 16 in Mombasa, will blend tribute with transition.
The program includes a special National Governing Council sitting, youth and women summits, a disability league breakfast, and a grand celebration at Mama Ngina Waterfront to honour Raila’s vision and achievements.
The weekend will close with a founders’ dinner and an interfaith thanksgiving service celebrating Raila’s leadership and ODM’s journey.
Yet beneath the songs and tributes, political maneuvering will dominate conversations. ODM’s next direction—whether to align formally with Ruto or chart an independent path—remains undecided.
What is certain is that the party’s endorsement will define Kenya’s next president.
Ruto, the once-young ODM Pentagon warrior who stood beside Raila in 2007, now returns as head of state. Kalonzo, the man who walked away, stays home once more.
ODM@20 may not just celebrate the past—it could crown the future.
