Kenya Insights

Tag: Raila Odinga AUC bid

  • Budget Controller Blocked Sh6.6 Billion in Emergency Spending, Cuts Funding for Raila’s AU Campaign

    Budget Controller Blocked Sh6.6 Billion in Emergency Spending, Cuts Funding for Raila’s AU Campaign

    The Controller of Budget has rejected Sh6.6 billion in emergency spending requests from various government agencies, including significant cuts to funding for Raila Odinga’s failed African Union Commission chairmanship campaign and President William Ruto’s local travels.

    Controller of Budget Margaret Nyakang’o revealed that 16 Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) requested additional funding of Sh48.8 billion, but she only approved Sh42.22 billion, according to the third quarterly National Government Budget Implementation Review Report for the financial year 2024/25.

    The most significant rejections included funding for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which requested Sh523.8 million to facilitate campaigns for Raila Odinga’s AU bid, but only received approval for Sh216.3 million.

    The dramatic cut came despite Kenya mounting an extensive campaign that saw President Ruto and over 100 MPs attend the AUC meeting in Addis Ababa in January 2025. Raila ultimately lost the race to Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf.

    State House also faced budget constraints, with its request for Sh1.5 billion to cater for utilities, rent, local presidential visits, hospitality services, fuel expenses and maintenance of motor vehicles being reduced to Sh1.15 billion.

    The Controller of Budget’s actions represent a significant pushback against what her office views as irregular use of emergency spending provisions.

    The COB declined to approve Sh6.6 billion for spending under the emergency clause between July 2024 and March 2025, citing concerns over the misuse of Article 223 of the Constitution.

    High spending by State House under the emergency clause occurred as President William Ruto hosted over 130 delegations and other events at the State House, while making more than 160 local tours across different counties between July 2024 and March 2025.

    Other agencies affected by the budget cuts include the National Police Service, which received only Sh1 billion of its requested Sh2.3 billion for the Multi-Agency Security support mission in Haiti.

    The State Department for Broadcasting & Telecommunication’s request for Sh627.6 million to settle pending bills was reduced to Sh354.3 million.

    However, some requests were approved in full, including the State Department for Public Health and Professional Standards’ Sh1.75 billion for medical doctors’ salary arrears, and Sh19.6 billion for Kenya Airways debt service payments.

    Nyakang’o raised concerns over the irregular reliance on Article 223 of the Constitution to fund existing government programmes and settle predictable obligations, indicating weaknesses in the budget implementation process.

    The Controller of Budget has called for improved fiscal planning and enhanced revenue collection, urging government agencies to reduce reliance on emergency funding by ensuring better upfront budgeting for known expenditures.

    The budget cuts highlight ongoing tensions between fiscal responsibility and political priorities, as the government grapples with mounting debt obligations while attempting to fund high-profile initiatives like international diplomatic campaigns and extensive presidential travel.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

  • Willis Otieno: How Ruto Sabotaged Raila’s AU Bid to Kill His Influence

    Willis Otieno: How Ruto Sabotaged Raila’s AU Bid to Kill His Influence

    In a fiery interview on Citizen TV’s panel discussion hosted by Trevor Ombija, Willis Otieno, the Deputy Leader of the Safina Party, launched a scathing attack on President William Ruto, accusing him of orchestrating Raila Odinga’s failure to secure the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairmanship.

    Otieno, a vocal political analyst and lawyer, argued that Ruto’s personal interests and diplomatic missteps cost Kenya the prestigious continental position, which he believed was Raila’s for the taking.

    Ruto’s Diplomatic Missteps and the SADC Factor

    Otieno pointed to Kenya’s strained relations with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as a critical factor in Raila’s loss. He claimed that Kenya’s controversial stance on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which contradicted SADC’s position, alienated key regional allies. “We lost this election the moment we lost SADC,” Otieno asserted. “And we lost SADC purely because Kenya had taken a position in the DRC that was contrary to the SADC position.”

    He placed the blame squarely on President Ruto, stating, “The person who must take ultimate political responsibility for the failure of the Kenyan state is William Ruto. What went wrong is William Ruto failed the people of Kenya in terms of his diplomatic maneuvers and his personal interests.”

    Ruto’s Calculated Campaign Against Raila

    Otieno went further, alleging that Ruto actively worked to undermine Raila’s continental influence. He claimed that Ruto orchestrated a calculated campaign within the African Union to diminish Raila’s diplomatic stature, including lobbying against his continued tenure as the AU High Representative for Infrastructure. “In a decisive maneuver, he formally petitioned the AU to rescind Raila’s appointment as the High Representative for Infrastructure, a role he had occupied since 2018,” Otieno revealed.

    This move, according to Otieno, was not just a political maneuver but a clear indication of Ruto’s determination to curtail Raila’s influence beyond Kenya’s borders. “Actively working to have Raila removed from an international role underscores the lingering political rivalry between them, despite their public gestures of reconciliation,” he said.

    Personal Interests Over National Interests

    Otieno accused Ruto of prioritizing his personal interests over Kenya’s national interests. He argued that Ruto saw Raila’s potential AU victory as a threat to his local political support base. “William Ruto saw this as an opportunity to pursue personal interests, and the personal interest was that if Raila were to win in the AU, he would be able to bring himself to get his local political support base,” Otieno explained.

    He painted a vivid picture of Ruto’s hypothetical reaction to a Raila victory: “I do believe that if Raila were declared the winner, William Ruto’s presidential jet would have landed at Kisumu Airport, he would have done a rally at Kondele to just create a national wave that would help him gain that constituency.”

    A Rejection of Ruto’s Leadership

    Otieno also criticized Ruto’s leadership style, suggesting that the AU bid was more about Ruto than Raila. “I do not take it that this was a Raila election; the person who was on the ballot at the AU was William Ruto,” he said. “We had in the municipal realm rejected him, he took himself to the continent hiding behind Raila Odinga, and the continent also rejected him.”

    He called for a shake-up in Kenya’s diplomatic leadership, particularly targeting Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi. “Musalia Mudavadi needs to be fired. The gaps that we have had in the Foreign Ministry are not serving the interests of this nation at all. There should be a change in the leadership at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” Otieno declared.

    Otieno’s remarks raise broader questions about Kenya’s diplomatic positioning within the AU. Was Ruto’s opposition to Raila driven purely by local political calculations, or was he aligning with other regional interests? Otieno suggested that Ruto’s actions signaled a perception of Raila not just as a domestic competitor but as a figure whose influence needed to be neutralized at a continental level.

    Ultimately, Otieno’s narrative paints a picture of a missed opportunity for Kenya, one that was squandered by internal political rivalries and diplomatic missteps.

  • Will Ruto Install Raila Odinga as PM if the AUC Bid Fails?

    Will Ruto Install Raila Odinga as PM if the AUC Bid Fails?

     

    President William Ruto’s political strategy is starting to look precarious. As mounting difficulties threaten his grip on power, he seems to see Raila Odinga as his potential savior.

    Voices in political circles now suggest that attacking Raila is akin to poking at Ruto’s raw nerve.

    Once, members of the Kenya Kwanza alliance openly criticized Raila. They’ve gone silent now, possibly fearing Ruto’s growing dependency on the opposition leader.

    Impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who has been in private discussions post-impeachment, reportedly laments, “I wish I knew.”

    Ruto’s push for Raila’s African Union Commission (AUC) chair bid appears strategic. It started before the Gen Z revolution, but now Ruto realizes he needs Raila more in Kenyan politics than in Addis Ababa.

    Initially, Ruto believed that sidelining Raila would help him consolidate power for his 2027 re-election bid. The plan aimed to dismantle the Azimio coalition that backed Raila in the 2022 election.

    With Raila out of the picture, many believed Ruto’s path to re-election would be smooth.

    On the contrary, Ruto’s outreach to Raila via the National Dialogue Committee became a game-changer.

    Ruto had counted on opposition protests driven by Raila to diminish his approval ratings. But that backfired, as Raila remained influential.

     

    Appointing Raila Odinga as PM, Shifting Alliances and Political Pressure

    The National Dialogue Committee featured Ruto’s allies, including Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichungw’ah, while Raila’s Azimio faction was led by Kalonzo Musyoka. After discussions with Raila, Ruto hoped to change perceptions about his unpopular policies. The surge of discontent, particularly on issues like the cost of living, has added pressure.

    The Gen Z revolution has reshaped political alliances across Kenya. Young activists align with Raila, who satisfies their calls for accountability. Their backing from parents and community leaders gives strength to their cause. Political insiders suggest Ruto, once dismissive, now views Gen Z as a significant force.

    The Gen Z movement has caused political chaos, with protests disrupting the status quo. Ruto’s administration witnessed instances of violence during protests in areas like Githurai and Kiambu. Ruto and Raila recognized that if the Gen Zs united with Raila’s supporters, the outcome could be disastrous for Ruto.

    Thus, Ruto’s administration was forced to engage Raila in the local political landscape to avert a crisis. By sidelining other parties in Azimio, Ruto showed a clear preference for consolidating power with Raila’s ODM instead.

    After the violence, several appointments from ODM to Ruto’s cabinet signaled a shift. Ruto seemingly relied on Raila to reestablish calm and stabilize his leadership. The political landscape is evolving: Gachagua’s very public impeachment has weakened Ruto’s grip on the critical Kikuyu vote.

    Raila as the Emergent Kingmaker

    With Ruto’s connections waning among the youth and backlash from Gachagua’s impeachment, Raila may be Ruto’s only hope. Many observers suggest that Ruto now views Raila as a potential kingmaker for the 2027 election. If Raila wins the AUC chair position, his leverage could dramatically change the political landscape.

    The prospect of Raila exiting the local stage to serve in the AU could further destabilize Ruto’s ambitions. Without Raila, the ODM could suffer, and Luhya and Luo support might dwindle. Many in ODM fear that lacking Raila as a leader in politics could lead to devastating losses at the polls.

    Should Raila’s AUC bid fail, he could return to reshape ODM, reigniting his role as a leading opposition figure. But at 80, pressure may mount for him to consider retirement. Raila’s political future hinges on this AU bid, and failure could lead to conflict within the opposition as power vacuums emerge.

    Ruto’s recent decisions demonstrate a shift in strategy. As he tries to strengthen alliances ahead of 2027, he is moving quickly to craft a coalition that accommodates Raila. The looming presence of the Somali community and other political dynamics suggest Ruto is recalibrating his approach to secure necessary support.

    With the Kalenjin and Kikuyu votes dwindling, Ruto’s collaboration with Raila could be crucial in combating political erosion.

    If Raila aligns with Ruto, it will allow Ruto to maintain a foothold in key urban centers like Nairobi and Mombasa. Ruto’s political future may rest entirely on navigating these alliances wisely.

    Ultimately, the outcome of Raila’s AUC bid could reshape Kenya’s political alliances and Ruto’s prospects for re-election.

    Ruto needs Raila’s leadership experience to stabilize his party and re-engage with voters. As political tensions rise, all eyes will remain fixed on whether Ruto plans to install Raila as Prime Minister should the AUC bid falter.

    The unfolding political drama reveals a complex landscape where allegiances change quickly. In this unpredictable environment, Ruto must adapt and secure his position, making Raila an essential partner in any future political endeavor.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kV-O__1Lt4A