Kenya Insights

Tag: Raila for AUC

  • Diplomatic Goof: How Raila Lost AUC

    Diplomatic Goof: How Raila Lost AUC

    In a stunning turn of events at the African Union Commission (AUC) summit in Addis Ababa on February 15, 2025, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga watched helplessly as the chairmanship slipped from his grasp.

    Mahmoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti emerged victorious in a fiercely contested race that, despite early signs of a Raila win, ultimately saw his campaign unravel under a series of diplomatic missteps and shifting regional alliances.

    From Frontrunner to Fading Hope

    For months, Raila Odinga crisscrossed Africa, engaging with presidents and government heads to secure backing for his bid to lead the AUC. In the initial rounds of voting, Raila appeared poised for a sweeping victory, amassing a majority of votes and building momentum among the continent’s anglophone states.

    However, as the rounds progressed, a convergence of factors both external and internal began to work against him.

    The Francophone Factor

    One of the most significant hurdles in Raila’s campaign was the entrenched influence of Francophone nations within the African Union. Despite his team’s early dismissal of the Francophone bloc as a decisive factor, it became clear during the voting process that language and regional alliances played a pivotal role. Raila led in the initial rounds, but after the elimination of Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato, a Francophone candidate, votes shifted overwhelmingly to Djibouti’s Ali Youssouf.

    Djibouti, a member of the National Ozone Officers Network for French-Speaking Africa, leveraged its position within the 26-member Francophone bloc to secure support. Former UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi had earlier warned that Raila’s non-Francophone background would be a disadvantage

    “Normally, it is extremely difficult for the bloc to vote for a non-Francophone speaker if there is a French speaker among the candidates,” Kituyi noted. This prediction proved accurate, as Youssouf clinched the chairmanship with 33 votes in the sixth round.

    Ruto’s Pro-Israel Stance and Pan-Africanism Questions

    Another critical factor that may have cost Raila the AUC seat was Kenya’s foreign policy stance under President William Ruto.

    Ruto’s unequivocal support for Israel during the October 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict drew sharp criticism from pro-Palestine African nations.

    During the AUC summit, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was a guest, underscoring the continent’s solidarity with Palestine.

    “Kenya has taken a position that is contra-Palestine,” noted legal expert Migai Akech. “This likely alienated some African states that view the Palestinian cause as a symbol of anti-colonial struggle.”

    Raila, despite his pan-African credentials, was unable to distance himself from Ruto’s controversial stance, which may have eroded his support among member states.

    Additionally, Ruto’s handling of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) crisis further damaged Kenya’s pan-African image.

    By seeking French President Emmanuel Macron’s intervention in the conflict, Ruto was seen as sidelining African-led solutions, a move that did not sit well with other African leaders. “Kenya has not been seen to be advancing a pan-African position in DRC,” Professor Migai observed, adding that this could have influenced voting patterns.

    The SADC Bloc and Anglophone Divide

    Raila’s campaign had initially gained traction among Anglophone nations, with endorsements from key players like Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni and Tanzania’s Samia Suluhu Hassan.

    However, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a 16-member bloc, threw its weight behind Madagascar’s Randriamandrato in a last-minute decision. This move split the vote in the early rounds, leaving Raila vulnerable in the final tally.

    Uganda’s Museveni, a vocal Raila supporter, notably skipped the voting session, depriving Raila of a crucial vote.

    Analysts suggest that Kenya’s involvement in the DRC conflict, where SADC is also active, may have influenced the bloc’s decision to back Randriamandrato initially and later shift support to Youssouf.

    Internal Kenyan Issues

    Raila’s campaign was also hampered by internal challenges within Kenya. The Ruto administration has faced criticism over a spate of abductions, including the high-profile case of Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye, who was seized in Nairobi and extradited to Uganda.

    These incidents raised questions about Kenya’s commitment to human rights and the rule of law, tarnishing Raila’s image as a champion of democracy.

    “Why must Africa consider you when your country cannot provide answers on abduction cases in Kenya?” asked Sophie Mokoena, an international news editor for South Africa’s SABC, in a viral social media post.

    The abductions, coupled with Kenya’s domestic unrest, painted a picture of a nation struggling with internal stability, which may have deterred some AU member states from supporting Raila.

    A Missed Opportunity

    In his concession speech, Raila hinted at “last-minute factors” that contributed to his loss, promising to reveal them in due course. While his campaign was well-organized and widely supported, the combination of Francophone influence, Kenya’s foreign policy missteps, and internal issues proved insurmountable.

    Raila’s defeat underscores the complex interplay of regional alliances, language politics, and domestic factors in continental elections.

    For Kenya, the loss is a diplomatic setback, highlighting the need for a more cohesive and pan-African foreign policy approach.

    As Mahmoud Ali Youssouf takes the helm of the AUC, the continent will be watching to see if he can bridge the divides that defined this election.

    For Raila, this may not be the end of his continental ambitions. But for now, the AUC chairmanship remains an elusive dream, lost in a web of diplomatic miscalculations and regional rivalries.

  • ANALYSIS: Two Likely Scenarios That Will Play Out For Raila On AUC Election Day

    ANALYSIS: Two Likely Scenarios That Will Play Out For Raila On AUC Election Day

    By Kipkalya Kones

    One of two things will happen;

    1. Raila Odinga will win the AUC Chairman’s race…

    This will be a just and fair reward for a man who has committed his whole adult life to the service of the people. In a way, for many of his supporters, it will also wipe out the bitter memories of stolen elections and the humiliation that has always come with it. Celebrations will break out. And since it’s a four-year term, renewable once, Raila will then be in Addis until at least 2029, or at most 2033, covering two Kenyan electoral cycles.

    This eventuality means that it will be the last time to see Raila in local politics, though nothing stops us asking him to then run for President in 2037. Amolo is still vere vere young! As AUC Chair, Raila will transition to continental statesman, and those noises you have been hearing in ODM will turn into action, as both his political orphans, his proteges as well as the Transaction Industrial Complex in the party, physically begin to outdo each other. The sharks, the hyenas and the lambs will all converge under the umbrella of EAT OR BE EATEN!

    2. Raila loses the election and returns home…

    First, this would mean that one or two blocs, especially SADC and ECOWAS, betrayed Raila after making endorsements. Further complications may arise from Kagame’s tiff with both Tshisekedi of DRC and the widely respected SADC kingpin, Cyril Ramaphosa. When Amina Mohamed lost this contest in 2017, intra-bloc disunity in the EAC played a major role. Some EAC states failed to vote for her. You can therefore imagine the possibility of inter-bloc dynamics currently prevailing.

    The opponent from Djibouti was widely expected to step down before this contest. At some point, there were leaks of a presser just about to take place. That Yousouf didn’t step down and has opted to go to the wire is an uncomfortable prospect for Raila supporters, long traumatised by victories that have seemed guaranteed only to collapse at the last minute. Raila’s endorsements had gone past the half mark, so it is inconceivable that Yousouf would stay on, unless he also sees a clear path to victory. Not to mention that in 2017, the Kenyan government had even set up a hotel for celebrations when Amina inexplicably lost.

    In terms of local political dynamics, if Raila loses, the prevailing feeling will be that he was led to slaughter by a cunning Kenyan government, led by Ruto. First, ODM members will immediately declare Raila the Sixth for 2027! I mean, if he was good enough to run the continent past 2027, he can surely run Kenya too, two elections ahead! The broad-based arrangement will immediately collapse, and those so-called ODM experts in government will suddenly discover that they are only valuable to their master as long as Baba is happy. This scenario also portends the possibility of Raila and Gachagua forces finding very rare common ground, and if the Gen Z erupt at some point, this powder keg will explode like an IED in Afghanistan.

    Truth be told, many of those who wish Baba well actually prefer this second scenario. Politics in the times of mass despondency needs Raila active and angry on the local scene. Ruto’s regime hates this possibility, so let’s assume they have done enough to have Raila win on Saturday.

    The Writers is a political commentator on X (CollinceBey)

  • Over 100 MPs Join President Ruto in Addis Ababa to Back Raila Odinga’s AU Commission Bid

    Over 100 MPs Join President Ruto in Addis Ababa to Back Raila Odinga’s AU Commission Bid

    Over 100 Members of Parliament (MPs), alongside President William Ruto and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, are heading to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to support former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship.

    The high-stakes election is set to take place during the African Union (AU) Summit on February 15-16, 2025.

    Raila Odinga, a veteran Kenyan politician and former Prime Minister, is vying for the AUC’s top seat against two formidable candidates: Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and Madagascar’s former Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato.

    The AUC chairmanship is a critical position responsible for driving the AU’s agenda, promoting continental integration, and addressing challenges such as conflict resolution, economic development, and climate change.

    President Ruto’s active support for Raila’s candidacy underscores the significance of the bid for Kenya’s political landscape.

    The bipartisan backing from leaders across Kenya’s political divide highlights Raila’s enduring influence and the strategic importance of the AUC role for the East African region.

    A win for Raila would mark a historic achievement for Kenya, positioning the country as a key player in continental affairs.

    Raila’s campaign has gained momentum in recent months, with reports indicating that he has secured endorsements from at least 28 African countries.

    His platform emphasizes pan-Africanism, economic integration, and strengthening the AU’s capacity to address regional conflicts and humanitarian crises.

    The Kenyan delegation, which includes lawmakers from both the ruling party and the opposition, is set to engage in last-minute lobbying efforts ahead of the election.

    Raila and his team are scheduled to depart for Addis Ababa on February 12, where they will join other African leaders and delegates for the summit.

    Regional Implications and Strategic Stakes

    The AUC chairmanship election is not just a contest of personalities but also a reflection of regional dynamics and geopolitical interests.

    East Africa, which last held the position in 2008 with Gabon’s Jean Ping, is keen to reclaim the seat. Raila’s candidacy has been endorsed by the East African Community (EAC), with regional leaders rallying behind him as a unifying figure with extensive experience in governance and diplomacy.

    However, Raila faces stiff competition. Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf is seen as a strong contender, given his country’s strategic location and active role in regional security initiatives.

    Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato, meanwhile, brings a wealth of diplomatic experience and has been campaigning on a platform of revitalizing the AU’s economic agenda.

    Analysts suggest that Raila’s chances hinge on his ability to consolidate support beyond East Africa and address concerns about the AU’s effectiveness under his leadership.

    “Raila’s bid is a test of Kenya’s diplomatic clout and his ability to navigate the complex politics of the AU,” said Dr. Amani Abou-Zeid, a political analyst specializing in African governance.

    What’s at Stake for Kenya and President Ruto

    For President Ruto, Raila’s success would be a significant political win, bolstering his administration’s standing both domestically and internationally. It would also signal Kenya’s growing influence in continental affairs. Conversely, a loss could be seen as a setback for Ruto’s diplomatic strategy and his efforts to position Kenya as a regional powerhouse.

    As the AU Summit approaches, all eyes are on Addis Ababa, where African leaders will decide the future direction of the continent’s premier institution.

    Raila Odinga’s bid represents not just a personal ambition but a broader aspiration for Kenya and East Africa to play a leading role in shaping Africa’s future.

  • List Of Countries That Have Endorsed Raila’s AUC Chairperson Bid

    List Of Countries That Have Endorsed Raila’s AUC Chairperson Bid

    Raila Odinga, the former Prime Minister of Kenya, is one of the top contenders in the upcoming African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson election, scheduled for February 15-16, 2025, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Odinga has reportedly garnered strong support from at least 28 African nations, with 19 heads of state publicly backing his bid.

    Odinga’s candidacy is backed by the following countries:

    • Kenya
    • Uganda
    • Tanzania
    • Senegal
    • Guinea Bissau
    • Togo
    • Gambia
    • Zambia
    • Malawi
    • Zimbabwe
    • Equatorial Guinea
    • Democratic Republic of Congo
    • Rwanda
    • Burundi
    • Ghana
    • Seychelles
    • Mauritius
    • Algeria
    • South Sudan
    • Eritrea

    The election process involves voting by secret ballot, and if no candidate achieves the necessary two-thirds majority in the first round, further rounds will follow until a winner is determined. If no candidate secures the majority after the third round, the election will be suspended.

    It’s important to note that six countries, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Niger, and Gabon, will not participate due to sanctions resulting from political instability.

    As the election date approaches, Odinga will compete with Mohamoud Youssouf of Djibouti and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar.

  • ‪Why Raila’s Campaign Secretariat Is Now Confident Of His AUC Win‬ As Campaign Enters Final Stretch

    ‪Why Raila’s Campaign Secretariat Is Now Confident Of His AUC Win‬ As Campaign Enters Final Stretch

    As the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson election looms, Raila Odinga’s campaign team is expressing an unprecedented level of confidence in securing the top position.

    With the vote set for the 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on February 15 and 16, the former Kenyan Prime Minister’s campaign has been marked by strategic engagements and a broad base of support across the continent.

    Raila has been on an extensive diplomatic tour, meeting with key figures across various African regions. His recent visit to Egypt, alongside President William Ruto, was described by Odinga himself as “a momentous diplomatic engagement,” highlighting his commitment to Pan-Africanism and drawing parallels with notable African leaders like Gamal Abdel Nasser. This visit, following others in Mauritania, Tunisia, and Algeria, has not only bolstered his image but also his campaign’s momentum.

    The competition is stiff, with Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Youssouf and former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato also in the race.

    However, Odinga’s team claims he has secured the backing of at least 28 of the 49 AU member states. This number, if accurate, places him just five votes shy of the two-thirds majority needed for a first-round victory.

    Elkanah Odembo, co-chair of Raila’s campaign secretariat with Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei, emphasized the campaign’s progress, stating, “Candidate Raila Amollo Odinga has covered significant ground in the last six weeks.” He noted that Raila has personally engaged with numerous heads of state, showcasing his “remarkable” energy level.

    The strategy moving forward involves a three-pronged approach: continued high-level visits by Ruto and Odinga to African leaders, intensified interactions by Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi with foreign ministers, and a direct engagement in Addis Ababa with ambassadors to solidify support.

    Strategic Alliances and Regional Support

    Support for Raila extends beyond East Africa, with countries like Ghana and Seychelles publicly backing his candidacy. This broad regional support is seen as a testament to his diplomatic prowess and vision for Africa’s future.

    The confidence within the campaign is palpable, with insiders suggesting that Odinga’s win could be “resounding.” This optimism is echoed by political figures like Belgut MP Nelson Koech, who chairs Kenya’s National Assembly Defence and Foreign Relations Committee and who sees Raila’s potential leadership at the AUC as bringing “tremendous benefits” not only to Kenya but to the entire East African Community in terms of social, political, and economic diplomacy.

    Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has also added his support with his publicly endorsement of Raila Odinga for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, emphasizing Odinga’s vast leadership experience as a primary qualification for the role.

    During an interview on February 3, 2025, Wandayi praised Odinga’s commitment to pan-Africanism, suggesting that these characteristics make him an ideal candidate for the position. He expressed personal admiration, having learned political skills under Odinga, and firmly believes that no one is more deserving of the AUC chairmanship than Raila.

    Wandayi also highlighted the national pride and international leverage Kenya would gain should Odinga win the election. He stated that having such an “iconic son” of Kenya in this high position would not only honor the country but also enhance its influence in African and global affairs.

    As the election approaches, the focus is on securing the remaining votes needed for a first-round win. With the campaign now in its final stages, Raila’s team is poised to leverage every diplomatic channel to ensure his candidacy is successful, potentially reshaping Africa’s leadership landscape at the continental level.

  • AU Announces Dates And Process For The AUC Elections 2025

    AU Announces Dates And Process For The AUC Elections 2025

    The African Union Commission (AUC) has detailed the procedure for its 2025 elections, announced on January 27, 2025. The elections will unfold in two distinct phases:

    First Phase: Scheduled for February 12-13, 2025, where the AU Executive Council, made up of foreign ministers from member states, will elect and appoint the commissioners.

    Second Phase: Set for February 15-16, 2025, following the opening ceremony of the 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of AU Heads of State, where the Chairperson and Deputy Chairperson will be elected.

    According to the AUC, the voting process starts with all candidates listed on the ballot. A candidate needs to secure a two-thirds majority to win. If no candidate achieves this after three rounds of voting, the process narrows down to a runoff between the two highest vote-getters.

    The AUC elaborated on the voting mechanics:

    If after three ballots, no candidate secures the necessary majority, only the two leading candidates will continue, with the candidate having fewer votes being eliminated.

    In the case where only one candidate remains but does not achieve the two-thirds majority, the current Chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, will suspend the election.

    Candidates for the Chairperson position include former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, and Madagascar’s former Foreign Affairs Minister Richard Randriamandrato.

    The race for Deputy Chairperson features six candidates: Salah Francis and Selma Malika from Algeria, Mohamed Ahmed Fathi and Hanan Morsy from Egypt, Najat M. Elhajjaji from Libya, and Latifa Akharbach from Morocco.

    This structured approach aims to ensure a transparent and democratic process for electing the leadership of the African Union Commission.

  • How Raila Odinga Crushed ODM Succession Talks

    How Raila Odinga Crushed ODM Succession Talks

    Since Raila Odinga’s loss in the 2022 presidential election, speculation about his retirement has been rampant.

    The debate intensified after he announced plans to vie for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship in February 2025.

    Meanwhile, key figures within his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) began vying for leadership positions, each eyeing the possibility of succeeding the opposition veteran.

    However, Raila’s recent moves to reorganize ODM’s leadership and nominate key allies to President William Ruto’s Cabinet reveal his intentions to remain politically active, even as the succession race heats up.

    How Raila Odinga Crushed ODM Succession Talks

    The Battle for ODM Leadership and the AUC Seat

    Earlier this year, loyal members of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) fiercely competed to succeed him. Hassan Joho, the Mining Cabinet Secretary, gathered support from the Coast and North Eastern regions. Meanwhile, Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya secured backing from his allies in Western Kenya.

    Both Joho and Oparanya, former ODM deputy leaders, felt they were the right candidates to lead after Raila’s retirement. But Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi, who was leading the Azimio coalition in Parliament, was the favorite among Nyanza lawmakers.

    Wandayi even gained the endorsement of Raila’s elder brother, Senator Oburu Oginga, who said Wandayi was closest to Raila’s heart. National Treasury CS John Mbadi also threw his hat in the ring, supported by Raila’s wife, Ida Odinga.

    The competition among these four men reflected their ambitions to lead ODM. However, Raila seemed reluctant to pass the leadership baton.

    To manage these ambitions, he endorsed both Joho and Oparanya to lead in his absence. But recently, Raila removed all four from the leadership equation by nominating them to President William Ruto’s Cabinet.

    Since the law prevents Cabinet Secretaries from holding party positions, they were effectively sidelined. Days ago, Raila introduced a new leadership lineup for ODM. He hinted that despite his potential AUC position, he would remain active in politics.

    Raila reassured his supporters, saying he could easily fly to Addis Ababa in just two hours and would continue advising his chosen deputies.

    Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir, and Kisii Governor Simba Arati were appointed as Raila’s deputies.

    The move to appoint three deputies was seen as an effort to calm different factions within ODM and reduce any direct challenge to Raila’s authority.

    If Raila is unsuccessful in his AUC bid, he can easily return to lead ODM. If he wins, he will remain in touch with party affairs.

    Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna retained his role as ODM’s secretary general. Raila has described this position as the “heart of the party,” highlighting Sifuna’s close alliance with him.

    Initially, Sifuna was considered for the deputy party leader role, but the creation of multiple deputy positions diluted its power.

    In other changes, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga was appointed as chairperson, signaling her potential for future leadership.

    Notably missing from this reshuffle was Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, a vocal politician who is seen as a potential future leader in Nyanza.

    Although Babu has tried to secure a more influential role within ODM, he is still viewed as a junior member of the party.

    According to Timothy Onduru, a university history lecturer, Babu is relatively new to politics, and there are more experienced leaders who are better suited to take over.

    Despite this, Babu’s frequent visits to Nyanza and his charismatic appeal make him a notable figure in the region’s politics.

    Babu has already started charting his political path. He is part of a group of young MPs, known as “team ground,” who see themselves as an alternative to Raila’s alliance with President Ruto.

    Last Friday, Babu led a group of lawmakers in criticizing the president’s handling of issues raised by young protesters. Quoting former South African President Nelson Mandela, he hinted at his own presidential ambitions.

    For now, Babu’s immediate goal is to unseat Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja in 2027. However, Raila seems to prefer Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi for the position, creating a hurdle for Babu. Dr. Onduru suggests that Raila’s reluctance to support Babu is due to his tendency to “go overboard.”

    Raila has often been criticized for not grooming successors and for sidelining those with bright political futures. Political analysts argue that Raila appears hesitant to hand over control, both within ODM and the Azimio coalition.