What began as a spirited rebellion against President William Ruto’s broad-based government experiment and ODM’s perceived drift from its founding ideals is now exposing the familiar fault lines of Kenyan opposition politics.
The Linda Mwananchi movement, which attracted large crowds to rallies in Nakuru, Kisumu, Mombasa and other towns, is increasingly grappling with an identity crisis. At the heart of the debate is a growing tension between collective resistance and individual political ambition. Despite repeated public declarations of unity, signs of strain are becoming harder to ignore.
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino moved swiftly this week to dismiss speculation about a fallout with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna. Speaking in an interview with Namlolwe FM, Owino insisted that the two leaders are pursuing different political paths. According to him, Sifuna is focused on a future presidential bid, while he is eyeing the Nairobi governorship in 2027 before eventually seeking the presidency in 2032.
“There is no conflict between us,” Owino said.
Yet the same interview revealed frustrations that have simmered beneath the surface for years. Owino recounted how he allegedly had to threaten chaos at Orange House in 2017 to secure an ODM ticket. He spoke of fighting legal battles after his election victory was nullified and claimed he received the party ticket for the 2022 elections only two days before the primaries.
He also accused Dr Oburu Oginga of failing to convene a delegates’ conference for fresh ODM elections and declared that he would never again serve under another party leader. According to Owino, Raila Odinga would be the last leader under whom he served politically.
Those are hardly the words of a politician content with a supporting role.
Owino also reminded listeners that he played a central role in organising and mobilising the massive Linda Mwananchi rally in Kisumu, a remark many interpreted as an assertion of influence within the movement at a time when Sifuna’s profile appears to be rising fastest.
A TIFA survey released in May appeared to underscore that reality. The poll showed Owino’s national support within the Linda Mwananchi camp dropping from 8 percent to 2 percent, while Sifuna registered 10 percent nationally and emerged as one of the movement’s strongest performers in Western Kenya.
The emerging tensions are not only personal. They are also strategic.
Sifuna has consistently argued that defeating an incumbent president will require a united opposition front. His willingness to engage with the emerging opposition alliance associated with Rigathi Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka has positioned him as a possible kingmaker or running mate in a broader coalition arrangement.
Siaya Governor James Orengo has taken a different approach. He has doubled down on the idea of reclaiming ODM from within, presenting himself as the party’s de facto leader and signalling readiness for a presidential run. For Orengo, the battle is ideological as much as it is electoral.
Saboti MP Caleb Amisi has added a generational dimension to the debate by openly describing Sifuna as the most credible presidential prospect among younger leaders. He has questioned whether veteran politicians such as Orengo can generate the level of excitement needed to mount a serious challenge against Ruto.
Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s longtime ally Caroli Omondi has gone even further, warning that ODM faces an ideological split between the Linda Mwananchi wing and the Oburu-aligned “Linda Ground” faction. Omondi has even referenced Raila’s dramatic departure from Ford-Kenya in 1996 as a possible blueprint should ODM abandon what he views as its founding principles.
The Registrar of Political Parties’ decision to reject attempts to register the Linda Mwananchi Party of Kenya only highlighted the movement’s uncertainty without resolving it. Although key leaders opposed the registration bid, the episode exposed the lack of consensus on the movement’s future direction.
Should Linda Mwananchi become a political party? Should it remain a pressure group? Or should it merge into a broader opposition coalition?
Those questions remain unanswered.
Political analysts argue that the current turbulence is predictable. Many personality-driven political movements enjoy rapid growth during periods of public anger but struggle once they are forced to develop structures, define leadership hierarchies and identify candidates for elective office.
For a movement that gained momentum through public frustration over taxation, the rising cost of living and perceived opposition compromises, the internal power struggles carry significant risks.
Meanwhile, the evolving relationship between the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) and Wiper has already complicated calculations in Nairobi. Their cooperation is widely viewed as a potential obstacle to Owino’s gubernatorial ambitions, particularly with reports that some influential figures favour Embakasi North MP James Gakuya for the city’s top seat.
Every day spent managing internal rivalries and positioning for 2027 is a day the broader opposition risks failing to present a coherent alternative to Ruto’s re-election campaign.
Public denials of discord are understandable. Few within the movement would want to hand the government an early political victory by openly acknowledging divisions.
Yet polling trends, public statements and competing visions for the future tell a more complicated story.
What once appeared to be a brotherhood forged in anti-government rallies is increasingly looking like a contest over leadership, influence and political succession. The real test for Linda Mwananchi may not be whether it can mobilise crowds, but whether it can prevent personal ambitions from eclipsing its founding mission of championing ordinary citizens.
Kenyan voters have seen similar stories unfold before. The question now is whether Linda Mwananchi can rewrite the script before today’s cracks become tomorrow’s craters.
