In a landmark diplomatic engagement, Finnish President Alexander Stubb has identified Kenya as a key architect in reshaping the emerging world order during his unprecedented three-day state visit to the East African nation.
Speaking about his motivations for the visit, President Stubb expressed surprise that despite six decades of positive bilateral relations, no Finnish head of state had previously made an official trip to Kenya.
“First, there has never been a state visit by a Finnish President, which I was quite baffled about because we do have good relations for over 60 years and we’ve been quite close countries,” Stubb remarked.
Kenya Among “Swing States” in Global Power Shift
In a public lecture at the University of Nairobi that coincided with the completion of his new book, “The Triangle of Power – Rebalancing the New World Order,” Stubb specifically named Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa as African nations best positioned to shape the future global landscape.
“It is the Global South that will decide how the new world order will look like. In Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa will play a key role, in Asia, India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia will take up that task which will also see Argentina, Brazil and Mexico fill that role for Latin America,” he said.
The Finnish leader, a seasoned international relations scholar and former Prime Minister, emphasized that this visit offered him an opportunity to gain insights into the shifting global power dynamics where Kenya holds significant influence.
“I think we are witnessing a change of the world order, a similar moment that leaders of 1918, 1945, 1960s, 1989 [faced],” Stubb observed.
“I do think that Kenya is going to be one of the swing states deciding which direction the world is going to tilt, and I wanted to come here and learn.”
Support for UN Security Council Reform
President Stubb expressed strong support for President William Ruto’s efforts to increase African representation at the United Nations Security Council, arguing that global governance structures must evolve to reflect contemporary realities.
“The UN, which is the most important and impactful institution in the world must change its power structures. It is unacceptable to have the UN Security Council remain as it is; created in the image of the victors of World War II. More countries must be represented at the Security Council,” he stated.
During his address, Stubb highlighted the unique geopolitical advantage held by the 120 countries comprising the Global South.
Unlike nations definitively aligned with either the U.S.-led West or the China/Russia-led East, these countries possess greater flexibility in their international partnerships.
“The global south has the power to push for multipolar transactional deals or multilateralism, and for the latter to work, the multilateral institutions have to change,” he explained.
Demographic Advantage and Strategic Partnerships
The Finnish President pointed to powerful demographic trends that will enhance Africa and Asia’s global influence, with their populations expected to reach four and five billion respectively by the century’s end.
However, he cautioned that Global South nations must carefully navigate relationships with major powers.
“I believe the solution is having a multi-vectoral foreign policy where States cooperate with many different countries and luckily, the global south has the agency and power to make that decision. A country can have Russia, the US and China in their corner to help it in infrastructure projects and this is a plus,” he advised.
Stubb outlined three possible trajectories for global order: increased regionalism, a 19th-century-style concert of powers with defined spheres of influence, or renewed multilateral cooperation—which he identified as the optimal path forward.
President Stubb and his spouse, Suzanne Innes-Stubb, were welcomed by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki upon their arrival.
The visit included meetings with President William Ruto and Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja, marking a significant step in strengthening bilateral relations at a pivotal moment of global realignment.
