Kenya Insights

Tag: Elections

  • PROFILE – Who’s Friedrich Merz: Germany’s Likely New Chancellor

    PROFILE – Who’s Friedrich Merz: Germany’s Likely New Chancellor

    German conservative politician Friedrich Merz is poised for victory in Sunday’s election and is expected to become the country’s next chancellor if he succeeds in forming a coalition government in the coming weeks.

    Merz’s center-right CDU/CSU alliance is projected to win 29% of votes, according to the latest projections by the public broadcaster ARD. His rival, incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democrats, suffered a historic defeat, projected to receive just 16% of votes.

    The results indicate that Merz will need to conduct difficult negotiations with other parties to form a stable government. The complex coalition-building process could take several weeks or even months, given the significant policy differences that need to be bridged between potential partners.

    A shift from Merkel’s legacy

    The 69-year-old took the helm of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in 2022, two years after long-serving conservative leader and former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s departure from active politics.

    Unlike Merkel’s calm and consensus-building style, which helped her win broad support and bridge societal divides, Merz’s confrontational approach and polarizing statements have made him one of Germany’s least popular chancellor candidates.

    In contrast to Merkel’s centrist policies, Merz has steered the party toward the right, and his personal popularity remains well below that of the former chancellor, who earned the nickname “mutti” – German for mom – of the nation.

    While 21% of men considered him the most suitable candidate for chancellor, only 15% of female voters supported him, according to a recent opinion survey by Ipsos. His backing among young voters was even lower at 13%.

    Merz also faced low approval ratings among voters in East German federal states, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) maintains its strongest support base.

    Reset for Germany’s economic policies

    In his campaign, Merz strongly criticized Scholz’s coalition government, claiming their policies have triggered severe economic stagnation that has forced many companies to shut down factories and cut thousands of jobs.

    To revive the struggling economy, the conservative leader has proposed business-friendly policies: lowering corporate tax rates, securing affordable energy, cutting red tape, increasing investments, and establishing a digital ministry to lead Germany’s re-industrialization through digitalization.

    He criticized the Greens’ insistence on costly and inefficient energy projects and argued that Germany should maintain the nuclear energy option, with a focus on researching fourth- and fifth-generation nuclear technology.

    Merz is widely regarded by his supporters as a promising chancellor candidate who understands economic challenges and can offer practical solutions, as he worked many years as a corporate lawyer and board member for leading German and multinational companies.

    However, critics point out that despite his extensive political career since university and his business experience, he has never held executive office – either at the state level or as a federal cabinet minister.

    Left-wing politicians particularly question his ties to multinational corporations and the financial sector – especially his role as chairman of American multinational investment giant BlackRock’s German division from 2016 to 2020 – arguing that he would prioritize interests of lobby groups over public welfare.

    Major overhaul of immigration policy

    Merz has made mass migration a central focus of his election campaign, calling for a complete overhaul of Germany’s immigration policies.

    He has promised to establish permanent border controls with neighboring countries to significantly reduce irregular migration, while accelerating deportation procedures for rejected asylum seekers.

    Merz has declared that Syrians and Afghans without legal status, as well as those migrants who have committed serious crimes in Germany, will face deportation to their home countries.

    The Christian Democrats have also pledged to suspend family reunification for those with subsidiary protection status and terminate all voluntary admission programs.

    Merz’s strict immigration stance has sparked divided responses. In particular, migrant organizations have criticized his promise to reverse the Scholz government’s reforms on German citizenship and dual nationality.

    Critics have also cautioned that his strategy of echoing far-right AfD narratives to attract their voters would not succeed, as voters typically prefer “to support the original party rather than its imitators.”

    Backfiring far-right gamble

    The conservative politician caused an uproar several weeks ago by introducing anti-immigration legislation to parliament and seeking to pass it with support from the AfD.

    Scholz sharply criticized Merz for violating a longstanding principle in German politics – maintaining a “firewall” against far-right parties by refusing to cooperate with extremists.

    The initiative backfired when Merz’s controversial bill was rejected after a heated parliamentary debate. About a dozen lawmakers from his own CDU/CSU group broke ranks as well, and refused to support the legislation.

    His move sparked widespread protests across Germany, with tens of thousands of demonstrators taking to the streets, accusing Merz of normalizing far-right politics and breaking the post-war consensus against cooperating with extremist parties.

    Amid mounting criticism, Merz reversed course, repeatedly emphasizing this week that the Christian Democrats would not cooperate or engage with the AfD after the election.

    He highlighted the fundamental differences between the parties, noting that unlike the Christian Democrats, the AfD was taking a stance against Germany’s membership in both the EU and NATO.

    Conservative leader backs US and Israel ties

    On foreign policy, Merz has signaled a pragmatic approach while emphasizing the importance of transatlantic ties and close cooperation with the US.

    “This bond across the Atlantic has held up so far, regardless of which administration is in the White House,” he said recently, during a major foreign policy address in Berlin.

    While acknowledging growing tensions between the US and EU under the Trump administration, he argued that “this is also an opportunity that could strengthen Europe.”

    He urged European states to adopt a unified position and pursue common European interests in discussions with Trump.

    The CDU leader criticized US Vice President JD Vance’s controversial Munich Security Conference speech – where Vance accused Europe of abandoning democratic values – while keeping a measured tone to avoid straining relations before potential discussions with Trump.

    As opposition leader, Merz has frequently criticized Scholz’s restrained Ukraine policy over recent months. He pushed for sending advanced weaponry to Ukraine, particularly long-range Taurus missiles capable of striking Russian territory.

    Merz contended that bolstering Ukraine’s military capabilities would strengthen its position in potential peace talks with Moscow.

    The conservative leader has also been a strong supporter of Israel, repeatedly stating that Israel’s security is part of Germany’s “reason of state.”

    He has pledged increased support if the Christian Democrats win the elections.

    “A government led by me will strengthen our relations with Israel. I will immediately end the de facto export embargo of the current government,” he declared in his recent Berlin speech.

    Merz did not make any comment about the Israeli government’s war crimes or killing of thousands of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, but criticized the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

  • Germany Elections: ‪Conservative Leader Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU In Early Lead

    Germany Elections: ‪Conservative Leader Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU In Early Lead

    The voter turnout reached 52% by early afternoon as Germans headed to the polls Sunday in a nationwide election to elect a new parliament and government — a landmark vote that could reshape the country’s political landscape.

    Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. (0700GMT) at nearly 90,000 locations across the country and will close at 6 p.m. (1700GMT).

    More than 59 million German citizens are eligible to vote in the elections, including 2.3 million first-time voters, according to official data. The electorate leans heavily on the older side, with 42% of voters aged 60 or above, compared to just 13% under 30.

    Over 7 million eligible voters have immigrant backgrounds, including more than 1 million German citizens of Turkish origin.

    While some Germans have already submitted their mail-in ballots, thousands of citizens living abroad have reported on social media that their postal voting documents have not arrived in time.

    The voter turnout reached 52% by early afternoon, higher than in the 2021 election. Four years ago, the turnout was 36.5% in the early afternoon, though this lower figure was largely attributed to the coronavirus pandemic and voters’ preference for postal voting.

    Conservative Merz seen as favorite

    Opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are favored to win the election, though they are not expected to gain enough seats to form a government on their own.

    The latest INSA polling data shows the center-right CDU/CSU alliance commanding 29.5% of voter support, maintaining more than 14-point lead over Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s struggling Social Democratic Party (SPD).

    The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has reached 21% in the latest poll, setting up for its strongest federal election performance yet and positioning itself as the second-most powerful political force in the country.

    A survey released Thursday showed that nearly 27% of voters remained undecided just days before the election, unsure whether to vote or which party to support.

    Germany’s complex election system

    Germany’s chancellor is elected indirectly, with voters choosing new parliament members, who then pick the new chancellor with a vote among themselves.
    If the winning party secures a majority in parliament, or manages to build a coalition government with an absolute majority, its candidate becomes the country’s next chancellor.

    Germany uses a mixed voting system where each citizen casts two ballots. With their first vote, they choose a specific candidate to represent their local district. Their second vote supports a political party, determining the party’s total representation in the 630-seat parliament.

    Coalition options remain uncertain

    Recent opinion polls show no party is expected to win an absolute majority, indicating that complex negotiations to form a coalition government will be necessary.

    Analysts widely anticipated a coalition between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats as the most likely outcome, though with many undecided voters and Germany’s complex electoral system, this projection remains uncertain.

    Six parties are currently polling well above the 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag: the CDU/CSU alliance (29.5%), the far-right AfD (21%), SPD (15%), Greens (12.5%), and socialist Die Linke (7.5%). Recent polling indicates that the left-populist BSW party may barely reach the 5% threshold.

    The anti-immigrant AfD party has no viable path to power, as all other parties—including frontrunner chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats—have ruled out forming a coalition with them.

    If smaller parties like the liberal FDP and left-populist BSW reach the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation, conservative leader Merz would need to build a three-party coalition to secure a majority—a scenario that could lead to prolonged negotiations and political uncertainty.

    Chancellor Scholz’s three-party coalition government—comprising the SPD, Greens, and FDP—collapsed in November due to disagreements over the budget, welfare programs, climate targets, and whether to take on new debt for investments. Instead of leading a minority government, Scholz opted for snap elections, saying Germany requires a strong and stable government to tackle its pressing challenges.

    (Anadolu Agency)

  • Raila: Military Officers Currently Under Training To Be Used In August Election Rigging

    Raila: Military Officers Currently Under Training To Be Used In August Election Rigging

    NASA presidential candidate Raila Odinga has dropped a bombshell in what is shocking yet not really unexpected making allegations that the military has been entangled into the land’s politics by being trained in the barracks as rigging agents in the coming election.

    Raila attributed the rigging dating back to since ehen the High Court ruled in April that presidential election results declared at the constituency are final, “the jubilee leadership has been involved in a series of activities that we find to be extremely disturbing with regard to the upcoming elections. ” Said Raila.

    The NASA leader challengedthe jubilee leadership to come clean on these matters.

    First, a series of meetings of officers from the National Intelligence Service have taken place with the sole purpose of coming up with a plan to help Jubilee retain power at all costs, particularly in the event that the courts maintains that results declared at the constituency level are final.

    “Jubilee appears to be putting all its hopes on the old centralised tallying at the Bomas of Kenya that enabled them to doctor and change results. It is now turning to using Intelligence and security officers to influence the august elections.” Odinga said

    Raila and Musalia addressing the press on the security issue

    The first meeting of the NIS and other groups from the national security sector took place at Lake Naivasha Lodge and the Great Rift Valley Lodge soon after the High Court ruling. Subsequent to that meeting, top officers of the various security formations in have held frequent consultations under the chairmanship of former Chief of General Staff Julius Waweru Karangi to actualise the plan developed by the NIS.

    Those who have attended these meetings include the Commander of the Army, Commander of the Kenya Air Force, the Commandant of the National Defence College, the Director General NIS, and the director of CID.

    Out of these meetings the following developments have followed:

    A training of members of the Kenya Defence Force on crowd control currently going on at in Embakasi military barracks.

    Training by the military for Administration Police officers, County Commanders and Regional Co-ordinators for unspecified roles.
    Recruitment of 120 military officers from each barrack and unit for unspecified special operations.

    These trainings are all currently underway at Embakasi barracks. They have every semblance with what was done at the same venue in the lead up to the 2007 general elections in which APs were later dispersed as election officials and poll agents for the Party of National Unity.

    Raila said they’re in possession of information that further to the above activities, several military officers are currently being hosted in Kakamega at the former provincial premises. We have information that these military officers are being prepared so as to be recruited by the IEBC as polling officials in the on-going recruitment process.

    NASA is inclined to believe that the above activities are meant to subvert the will of the people in the upcoming elections. We are challenging the national government and the leadership of the security organs in the country to explain to Kenyans why a select group of military officers would be involved in training civilians like county commanders and regional coordinators.

    Raila made an appeal to the military to remain faithful to the traditions of this country and their call of duty and refuse to be dragged into politics and instead focus on keeping our country safe. That has been our proud tradition as a country.

  • The State’s Muscles Flexing On NMG Journalist Walter Menya Sends A Chilling Message

    The State’s Muscles Flexing On NMG Journalist Walter Menya Sends A Chilling Message

    Walter Menya was having a regular medical checkup at Metropolitan Hospital, BuruBuru when a man identified to him as Korros posing as a source of a juicy story called him for a meeting to pass over details of his dossier. Since he couldn’t make it to town where the fake source had suggested, they agreed to meet at the hospital. Unknown to Menya, this was a well laid out trap to get him. After a short chat with Korros, Menya was accosted by cops who demanded him to take them to his house upon refusal he was forced into a police car. According to his colleagues, it was inside the car where he was handed a newspaper inside there was 20K which later turned out to be treated money to close him up. The incident was taken in camera by the cops.

    Menya would later be taken to CID HQ in Kiambu, and this is where the actual players and motive behind his arrest started to show their faces. The discredited and State’s online propaganda mercenaries broke the news of Menya’s arrest full with photos of the handcuffed journalists taken from restricted photography premises of CID this would only mean they were given via state agents. Initially, the online mercenaries privileged to be called 36bloggers under instructions as it has been said Menya was arrested for soliciting a bribe to kill a damaging story on the unnamed person, and that was the start of blunders.

    The purveyors failed to name the accuser whom Menya had solicited bribe from and the particular details of the story that they termed as fake story a now famous phrase by bully U.S. President Trump that he uses to discredit any publication he seems negative on him Terming the unmentioned story by Menya as Fake would only mean he was exposing damaging details on influential person. Before going into details, if Menya was demanding a bribe to publish a story and not to kill a story then the best route is going to the employer and not police?

    It has come to light that Menya had received a call from a PS on clarification to a story he had written earlier how top civil servants were amongst the high profile guests in the Uhuru’s fundraiser that raised 1B in hours. The senior officers were named as part of Friends of Jubilee Foundation rooting for his re-election. From his sources, Menya called KRA Commissioner-General John Njiraini and Energy PS Njoroge having attended Uhuru re-election fundraiser raising tens of millions to the kitty.

    As an after thought, Nation writer Walter Menya accuser was named as Kiprotich Koros; the nan who posed as a source and police asked the court to detain Menya for three more days as they probe bribery claims. Comedic peak was the police said the accuser was too poor to pay rest of the demanded bribe I 50K having paid 20K which was spiked and handed in the car. According to the arrested journalist, while being taken in rounds, he overheard one of the officers saying “huyu mtu tumpeleke Karura tumalize” (this one we should take to Karura Forest and finish him) a threat that goes to confirm extrajudicial killings exist and Karura being their execution point. He was arrested by the dreaded flying squad suspected of being Kenya’s police hit squad.

    The accuser Korros is a nobody in the picture but a mere implantation, who’s this powerful person he had irked with his writing. If indeed Menya had solicited for bribes and had received a prior pay of 20K via mpesa then that makes the accuser an accomplice to the crime of bribery, why is he not being accused?

    Menya being denied bail on a bailable offense in the name of more time to collect evidence which is the new detention without trial was just but away to intimidate him further. It is inhuman that the journalists had to go without his routine medication since he was denied citing orders from above.

    The lead investigator told the court that the complainant, who claims to have given cash to Menya, thought the money was going to NMG. Later he was informed by someone that NMG only changed to publish adverts and now news stories.

    It didn’t come as a surprise when the newest recruit to the 36 assassins a Mr. Robert Alai posted what’s alleged to be a recorded conversation of Menya bargaining for the bribe. Since we value your time and intelligence, we’ve decided not to repost that kindergarten fabrication here. Menya was arrested and what followed immediately was character assassination and demonization. A public lynching and prosecution in the public court scheme initiated by 36 mercenaries before the truth could come out. The amount of state machinery applied in Menya’s shows there’s more than meets the eye.

    Rather than attempting to kill a man’s credibility that he has built for ages, the unspoken reality is someone sending a warning to journalists against writing contrary to government’s hymns. Jubilee has had zero regards to press freedom, and this is yet again another hammer to the same. The script continues to unfold with laughable loopholes and factors arising but journalists and Kenyans must look beyond Menya, he’s being sacrificed to pass a message. Media is a crucial tool in a democracy, and infringing press rights amounts to undermining democracy and also interfering with the electoral process of public enlightenment. Civil servants must not engage in partisan politics as they’ve been, it is unconstitutional.

  • IEBC Conduct Remains The Recipe For Political Violence

    IEBC Conduct Remains The Recipe For Political Violence

    Days are fast tracking, and with about 50 days to the 8/8 every party in the election is stepping up their game in what has been posed as a do it die for the incumbent president and the opposition leader Raila Odinga who’s giving his last attempt at the presidency the fourth time in a row. Uhuru, on the other hand, is more than determined to stay in power for another term and in this case applying all the strategies spending the most amount of money to ensure victory.

    With 2007/08 PEV that claimed more than 1200 lives and millions displaced memories still fresh in Kenyans minds, the possibilities of political violence remains a great concern with 8/8 election posing violence threats. Electoral violence is sparked when the polling system is marred by irregularities and open rigging. This is the case in the 2007/08 where the electoral body was accused of conspiring with the regime to rig the election throwing the country into the worst political violence in history.

    The 2010 amended constitution emphasized on credible polls are giving brightest insertions to fraud loopholes. In a nutshell, the post-election peace solely depends on one vital aspect; credibility of the election. This, therefore, means, the state of the nation post 8/8 will depend on how IEBC will have conducted the election. An open, verifiable and credible election will be the best gift IEBC will have given Kenyans, and high possibilities results would be accepted. A bungled, suspicious, corrupted and open rigging case scenario by IEBC delivering a highly compromised election will throw the country into a bloodshed state. The peace of the country is now on IEBC hands.

    IEBC conduct is, however, a worrying factor with days to the election, the body has been reduced to a toothless dog with partisan stand with Jubilee whom they’re ever in sync with. It is increasingly becoming impossible to tell who’s Jubilee and IEBC and who is who’s spokesman, they speak same language and tone. This is a red flag to the body’s independence.

    IEBC has maintained loud silence as electoral laws are being openly flawed. The government still airs it’s achievements promos which are campaigning material even though it is within campaign season. This has allowed misuse of taxpayers money and IEBC authorizing the violation of rules that restricts the use of public funds to push political agendas. The inaction again could be a pointing factor towards a clobbered and compromised body.

    IEBC has a minimal general public trust which is a toxic relationship in the first instance, instead of fighting to win public trust, IEBC has been working in reverse. Opposition to the declaration of constituency level results as official, as opposed to the national level announcement which from history has been the loophole in results inflation, is yet another eyebrow raiser on their commitment to open poll.

    President Uhuru meets Al Ghurair CEO Majid at Statehouse

    Single source tendering of ballot printing to Dubai firm Al Ghurair is yet another stalemate and piles to the list of suspicious deals. By single sourcing to Al Ghurair which was done at an inflated price is a violation of law, this ought to have been done within the public procurement process. IEBC has argued that they have no time and the company has the capacity to deliver. This to them is enough reason to flaw the law at the expense of public trust. As it has emerged, the Dubai company has links with President Uhuru and that his family brokered the deal. Uhuru being a party in the election, influencing the ballot printing conflicts interests, therefore, legitimizing NASA accusation that there’s a plot with Al Ghurair to print extra ballot papers to help in rigging.

    Al Ghurair Co seems to enjoy a friendly business relationship with dictatorial regimes. The company supplied ballot papers to Zambia where the opposition cried foul over a dirty play which saw the incumbent win by a whisker. There’s something about Al Ghurair that is unsaid only known to the insiders but it has a rat smell.

    It was alleged that in February 2016 Al Ghurair printed ballot papers for the Ugandan elections, which were marred by allegations of irregularity.

    Deepening suspicions was the cost of the work. Of the 13 companies vying for the printing contract, the Johannesburg-based Ren-Form cc printing company – which had won the Zambia contract on three previous occasions – lodged the cheapest bid, $1.7 million, with Al Ghurair coming in at $3.6m. As to why the Zambia Electoral body went for Al Ghurair with the highest bid instead of Ren -Form with the lower bid is not rocket science. There must be exclusive, convenient services that Al Ghurair offers making it a darling to African dictators. This another reason their deal with IEBC should worry Kenya and more specifically how the tender was awarded.

    We also have politicians moving around inciting communities a case at hand in Uasin Gishu of Mandago such has gone without serious concerns from IEBC. Abusive language has become a norm amongst hypocrites calling for objective campaigns and giving national unity rhetoric. Such tones does nothing but polarizing the country.

    When you have a sterile referee as IEBC overseeing violation of Electoral laws and presiding over the same, then there should be a genuine concern on country’s post-election stability. The IEBC donors and particularly Western envoys need to spring into action and demand for the body to streamline and deliver credible election, if not then we’re simply doing same mistakes over exoecting a change,futile. All is not lost, and the only way IEBC IEBC redeem its image and subsequently save this nation is by delivering a 100% credible election, open, verifiable, manipulation impermeable. A bungled election is a fire ignition stroke.

  • Blanket Reconciliation Of Kikuyus And Kalenjins In The Rift Valley Is A Disaster Waiting To Happen

    Blanket Reconciliation Of Kikuyus And Kalenjins In The Rift Valley Is A Disaster Waiting To Happen

    2007-2008 Kenya had it’s share of dark moments. Following highly contested elections the country plunged into war, neighbors turned on each other slashing, torching, looting, raping and doing all kind of inhuman acts.

    A war between tribes is what it escalated into, lives were lost through butchering and police executions. Women were raped, men forcefully circumcised with broken bottles. It is not news to any Kenyan or any other person following the case that innocent people were cornered at a church in Kiambaa and burnt alive to death.

    Rift Valley was the epicenter of the PEV with ethnic cleansing, Kalenjins ganged up against the Kikuyu community whom they perceive as outsiders (madoa doa) who occupies their land and resources. The ugly historical injustices once again showed its face leading to worst ethnic violence.

    Uhuru and Ruto both ethnic leaders of the Kikuyu and Kalenjins in this perspective, find themselves before the ICC as the chief perpetrators of the PEV. As destiny would be, a marriage was built out of the big mystery and Jubilee Alliance was born. The marriage of Uhuru and Ruto for the 2013 elections temporarily buried the hatchet between the two conflicting communities. Peace prevailed and despite conflicting factors left untouched, the marriage of the two leaders reconciled the Kikuyus and Kalenjins who unlike 2007 were now on the same political side in 2013. Jubilee won and no firm of violence was witnessed.

    Fast forward to 2017, the Jubilee marriage is still intact but there’s fear of violence in the Rift Valley and more specifically in Uasin Gishu country where ‘madoadoa’ the Kikuyus are living in fear as the election date approaches. Governor Mandago has publicly cautioned the Kikuyu community against voting for Buzeki who’s said to be a DP Ruto’s project. Mandago and Sudi are under hate speech investigations by the NCIC. However, there’s less to expect from a toothless political body that has in many occasions acquitted publicly guilty persons as Moses Kuria.

    Even in the marriage, suspicion has dominated with emergence that members from Uhuru faction were the one’s who built the case and took Ruto to Hague. This brought murmurs that were later silenced, momentarily. Power sharing has also been a factor with the Kalenjins feeling short changed in what they perceive to be an equal share union. They’ve felt like second class shareholders. These however aren’t as inconsequential.

    Peace stability of the Rift Valley is a serious concern especially now that it is becoming clearer by the day that what we have is a blanket reconciliation and cosmetic peace between the two communities. The factors that led to ethnic cleansing have remained the same and unaddressed and that this peace hangs on the Uhuru and Ruto marriage. Political truth is the two won’t last forever, what happens when Uhuru and Ruto break ranks which by the way is imminent in the next four years. What will happen? It will be back to the basics situation. If Mandago and group can speak publicly inciting and creating animosity while jubilee marriage is still on, what would they say or do when the Jubilee marriage is over?

    Uhuru and Ruto have wasted opportunity to genuinely reconcile the two communities sitting on a time bomb. They’ve had the chance and power to adequately address the factors that have been the conflicting grounds. Instead, The two have been power brokers in Nairobi instead of peace brokers in the community, recipe for disaster. TJRC gave recommendations on how best to address the Kikuyu-Kalenjin conflicts but Jubilee hasn’t implemented the report. The land is particularly the greatest factor but it has been untouched. While leaders close their heads down on the temporary jubilee marriage that is the only thing holding the peace together, avoiding to make a lasting solution by implementing the TJRC recommendations is nothing but baiting disaster. Failing to find a lasting solution instead opting to play around them is performing a foreplay to disaster.

  • Kenya’s Presidency; So Close Yet Too Far For Women

    Kenya’s Presidency; So Close Yet Too Far For Women

    I always believe and which has been practically approved and done ‘If you want to be heard, choose a woman but if you want to get things done, choose a woman’.I ain’t violating or rather becoming antagonist against Gender equality rule, No! It’s a moment of fact checking.

    Gender equality campaign has been fought for and has since been prosperous.An example, Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) have made sure each political have reached the boiling point of two-third gender rule during their party primaries unlike last general elections was not met.As some slogan ‘Ladies First’ applies everywhere, male gender always gets victimized as a result of discrimination, second option and not priorities.When too much of something is induced, it becomes dangerous and poisonous hence mercilessly applies to Female gender.Priorities provided for them have become poisonous, some are misusing, some are well-utilising, some aren’t utilizing at all.

    My sword is not meant to bring down potential women contesting for various political positions apart from The Presidency.Our mothers who ought to have changed the game, have degraded themselves to Flower girl positions.Shame! Where is Martha Karua, Charity Ngilu? Could hatred and Jealousy amongst women themselves caused this decision, it is.Women hate each other more than they hate men, they would better vote in a man and sideline their own.

    Martha Karua and Charity Ngilu one time Presidential hopeful candidates, dependable and respected Kenya’s Hillary Clintons are now misleading women, have become diminishing role models to visionary young ladies and a proof that ‘For women, it’s impossible’.They have discredited self-worthiness of women in leadership perspective.

    These two pillars have on countable occasions fall on the same side of the coin in solidarity which they ought to be at all time for the sake Women leadership in this country.Women’s greatest fear in National politics was the withdrawal of ‘Unshakable’ Charity Ngilu and the mistress of intellectual tantrums Martha Karua ‘Iron Lady’ but they have been siphoned by pressure from the depth of the pockets and Ethnic Politics (Defend your own).

    However much Constitution by the aid of activists is pushing to the core, gender equality rule.We should ask ourselves, are they of potential? Politics you should not consider yourself a. Woman but a leader despite the gender.Are women able to bridge the gap and transform from being a woman’ to a ‘Leader’ mentality? not unless they all want to vie for Women Representative positions. Ngilu and Karua just approved how wavy women are in National politics.This is a wake-up call to salute continuas, you better wake up and rise higher, no more turning back.Unfortunately, those in line to take over-prioritizes beauty, appearing dot.com in artificial makeup and curves to be seductive and tantalizing to men which are another concrete reason why women are jealous of each other, over Service delivery.

    I am for sure this is the end both’s dream of being in the highest office of Presidency.They have rubbished the righteous path for women, let newcomers enter the game.No mean, humble words to use against these individuals.It’s betrayal.

    Written by: John Bosco

    Twitter: @johnbosco_juma

    This article expresses the author’s opinion only. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Kenya Insights or its Editors. We welcome opinion and views on topical issues. Email: [email protected]

  • Raila Fear Mongering, A Failing Campaign Strategy

    Raila Fear Mongering, A Failing Campaign Strategy

    The late Vice President Kijana Wamalwa once said in Kenya politically, there are two types of people; pro-Raila and anti-Raila. In his theory, the fallen Luhya kingpin alluded that politics in Kenya revolves around one man Raila, such that those who love him do so wholeheartedly and those who hate him do so with a passion.

    Raila fear mongering is a campaign strategy that was started during Kibaki regime when they were cutting links with Raila and perfected during Jubilee regime where it has been consistent to date. For the 2013 campaigns, the Jubilee duo coined a campaign propaganda accusing Raila of colluding with the West to drag them for hanging in the ICC. While the truth was far from, politically, it gave Jubilee duo an upper hand, strengthening their support especially within their core ethnic bases; Kikuyu and Kalenjin. Having been poisoned with the fear mongering factor, they came out in their numbers to give Uhuru and Ruto a win.

    Fast forward to 2017, the game dynamics have changed, same field and players but a different league. ICC is out of the way and therefore Jubilee had to go for a campaign agenda. For NASA and Raila, their job was done prior, banking on Jubilee’s failures from corruption to unemployment to soared cost of living. It is no task to see the much damage is on the Jubilee government.

    All factors constant, it is highly probable that Jubilee will still get the majority of their votes from Central and Rift Valley as they did previously but the game has a bit of a twist. While ethnicity plays a key role in voting pattern, it shouldn’t shock if a sizeable shift is realized come August 8th. Many people have been affected and feeling it at the household levels the scorching cost of living, the unemployment bug has bit nearly every household, these serious factors could affect voting patterns and have many voting for change against traditional tribal voting.

    Ruto is facing a rebellion in Rift Valley even if it couldn’t be as huge but recent researches suggest that NASA will get a good chunk of the rich R.Valley vote. There’s an untold voter apathy scare in Central according to intelligence mills that a grassroots level mobilization mechanism has been put in place to ensure more people are convinced to get out in numbers to vote. Raila fear mongering is a key mobilization element being used, residents are being warned of the impending dangers of a Raila presidency including loss of business opportunities, slavery et al. Kiambu Governorship aspirant Ferdinand Waititu, is on record warning residents against a Raila presidency saying he would force the community to walk in shorts a colonial symbolism of slavery. They are told how toxic Rao presidency would be to them.

    Raila sharing a light moment with Mombasa Governor Joho at Maanzoni Lodge

    Truth of the matter is Jubilee has minimal or no development manifestation to sell to their voters, the record is either underwhelming or completely pathetic. For this, they’re banking on the fear mongering to have a good turnout which if works, will give NASA a run die their money. Many are saying they’d rather stay at home then go and vote for people who instead worsen life situations. The high cost of living guys across all Kenyans regardless of political affiliation.

    Jubilee has invested time and money on anti-Raila campaigns. This is running heavily on both popular social media networks and sponsored Google Search ads. Dedicated websites as ‘The Real Raila’ a creation of Cambridge Analytica is specifically tuned to paint a monster picture of Raila. There are more other websites with the same agenda. A day will barely pass without seeing an anti-Raila hashtag trending on Twitter and in fact as we speak, they’ve tripled the daily hashtags. It is business unusual.

    What does this character assassination of Raila by Jubilee tells us, exposes the weakness and lack of focus? In their public rallies, Jubilee principals insist on having an issue-based political campaigns across the board as opposed to character hammering yet they at times bite their own tongues and do the exact and foot soldiers to the extreme. According to the latest IPSOS poll results, Uhuru maintains a lead of 47% with Raila second at 42% a 15% margin close in as of the previous poll. A Good 8% of voters are undecided on who they’ll vote for.

    I can tell you for free that the pro-Raila will remain the same and vote him and so will pro-Uhuru, the strategists should, therefore, be only worried about the sway votes, the undecided voters. Does Jubilee, therefore, plan to win the hearts of undecided voters with maintained, toxic anti-Raila campaigns? Can’t jubilee conduct an issue based politics as they pride to be a change in traditional politicking set up? Bashing of Raila is nothing new. But let’s understand one thing that Jubilee is a cornered monkey, hanging onto anything to stay afloat including air, selling their development agenda has been a toll order with most Kenyans feeling more of inflation wrath than the so-called development projects. The portal launched has done less or failed to give them intended marks so here’s a person who’ll use any arsenal to kill.

    Being a political season and inflammatory language consequences can Kenya afford a heated war tone campaign? It is ironic to call for peaceful and campaigns decorum while spewing hatred sewage with a side of your mouth. It is the time to tame loose tongues. Address issues as opposed to personalities. People want to know how jobs will be created, get better healthcare and affordable quality education, Kenyans want a reprieve from the high costs of living but not political rhetoric on personalities an escapism tactic.

  • Kenyans Need Emancipation From Political Slavery.

    Kenyans Need Emancipation From Political Slavery.

    I choose a side in political warfare to defend at the expense of paralysis rapidly spreading deactivating our nervous system due to spinal cord injury as a claimed Democratic Nation, I gain nothing at all but instead loose more.I decide to water-down the frolicsome and crooked men in black suits, it’s a sure bet of dragging this better placed Nation to the wild and stray dogs.

    At the best interest of harmless citizens and true patriots in tattoos, indirectly manipulated low-class families.If we were at the most stable state of the economy with a well-functioning government and appreciating Opposition brigade, we would not rely on relief food and aids, nobody would strategize to be culprits of vandalizing the recently launched Standard Gauge Railway(SGR).One only thinks of such due to Unemployement, Extreme Poverty to earn a living.

    Hypocrisy and Propaganda are Self-defeating. Disagree to manipulation to be laid low like an envelope a sign of being loyal to a fellow homo sapien, only be loyal to God.Political slavery by three Ethnic-based men has reduced us to the level of an ID-mindset human being brain without well functioning Ego and SuperEgo.We have cocooned ourselves repelling new adventures and have our eyes and ears both closed and blocked to boycott exposure and new political narratives.

    “I would rather vote any opposition candidate but not Raila despite him being an opposition candidate”-Kamau, Kipchoge

    We are still dwelling in ‘Thorax’ politicking,’Payback’,’If it were not him’, ‘Support Our Own’ tribal politics displacing new narrators with savior ideologies. Politics is a dirty game? yes! It’s a game of ideas and strategies? yes! but ever since independence which incumbent have taken us to enjoy the wine in that rich land they promise on a righteous path? My grandmother and grandfather back at the village doesn’t vote in a leader because it’s a dirty game neither do they because he/she is a youth nor an adult but because they want to have a sweeter ending, get pensions without delay and being shortchanged.

    But why? “We defend our own” “It’s Payback Time”.What if we get rid of these three Captains? I bet music tunes and the temperament will change for a better and prosperous Kenya.Also moles of these three Captains in the recently shortlisted 18 Presidential candidates which are making a mockery of Democracy needs to be marked Boldly.Joseph William Nthiga Nyagah, Cyrus Jirongo needs not breath the victory air as they are just the opposite side of the same coin.”Show me your friends, I will tell you who you are”.

    During 2007 highly contested Presidential race which bred Post-election violence, Joseph Nyagah was among the ODM party Pentagon which consisted of NAJIB BALALA, RAILA ODINGA, WILLIAM RUTO and MUSALIA MUDAVADI.Cyrus Jirongo in 2013 worked closely with Raila Odinga since he was backing up his (Raila) Presidential bid after he hopped out of the Presidential race to battle Dr.Bonni Khalwale in Kakamega Senatorial Seat that he mercilessly lost.

    “I would rather vote for any candidate from Jubilee Party but neither Uhuru Kenyatta nor William Ruto”-Otieno, Wafula

    However much these three Kingpins loiter around preaching how sanitized and tribeless they are, only the employed civil servants and job-seekers have tasted the humble pies of ethnic discrimination as a matter of fact. They have CD4 receptors for Nepotism and segments of Corruption.

    The political game of these men is ‘Defending Dynasty Game’ which is not bad when the successors are of great potential and enigma but this is always accompanied by biases.Kenyan politics have broken the threshold, have negatively influenced Economic growth, Social growth.We are swimming in the contaminated water of politicking, slavery and now we are on diarrhoea.

    When they make foreign trips, we get pride because ‘Our Own’ stepping up to world-class but it’s never in our best interest but their best interest; they expand family business as you and me struggle through the sticky mad of high and harsh cost of living.
    Have a digestion of this short realistic imagination.You get to school far away from home then your diet changes to taking French Fries “chips” daily and everything is well but when you weigh your weight when you get back home, it’s reduced though you never felt sick.You wonder and you were ever full. If Nelson Mandela, Julius Nyerere, Kwame Nkrumah could wake up today from the grave would not be proud of Kenya and same to Jomo Kenyatta would not be quite happy with his son.

    It’s sickening, shaming that after 54yrs of liberation we are still dancing the same tune.If it’s a matter of Superpower and Superiority then I won’t be surprised again if Post-election violence erupt.Of cos, this battle for Superiority in history led to COLD WAR, WORLD WAR 1 and WORLD WAR 2.

    Let us get back to history considering Liberation and get a better option.We either rise together or fall together and float together or Sink together.The choice is yours, I have already done my part. A goat won’t get Justice when Leopard and Hyena are the Judge.It will instead be slaughtered. When bulls fight, it is the grass that suffers.

     

    Author-JohnBosco Juma
    Follow-@JohnBosco_Juma

    This article expresses the author’s opinion only. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Kenya Insights or its Editors. We welcome opinion and views on topical issues. Email: [email protected]

  • Madaraka Day Celebration In Nyeri A National Shame Crafted By Dimwits

    Madaraka Day Celebration In Nyeri A National Shame Crafted By Dimwits

    Hours back, Jubilee was walking shoulders high after launching the biggest infrastructural development since independence, despite integrity questions, SGR is, without a doubt, a major step forward. The launch that dominated the media headlines from Mombasa to Shanghai gave Jubilee a sense of legitimacy with high political scoring it came with.

    As Kenya marked its 54th year since attaining full independence, the government through its policy of holding national holidays across the country as opposed to traditional Nairobi, took it’s way to Nyeri. Lately, national events as Madaraka have been turned into political campaign platforms and I expected nothing different, the same speeches of outlining accomplishments of the government the only difference is the template. For that reason, I didn’t see anything worthy watching the event on TV until online outburst that prompted me to watch it online. Unexpectedly yet unsurprising, opposition leader and NASA Presidential candidate Raila was invited to the function. This here was set to be an interesting day.

    The event started off with a clearly biased and sycophantic prayer from a Catholic bishop who went out of line praising jubilee achievements while at the same time delivering accusatory venom on the opposition. Instead of preaching love and peace he chose to serve his own interest.

    Moments later as the event was building up, the set up was slowly melting from a national event into the local community’s event. From the choice of masters of ceremony to other speakers opting to publicly address in Kikuyu language turned the whole thing ugly. While it is understandable for using local dialect to be in sync with the locals, it was ours out of order. This wasn’t any other event but a national event held in Kikuyu land. It had to happen under elements of national unity and that included usage of Kiswahili and English only. But the organizers had their own interests to serve. Many Kenyans following the event across the country were left out as the event was reduced to a community ritual passage.

    Raila Odinga at the Madaraka day event in Nyeri.

    That wasn’t the end of blunders, the organizers had more botch job to perform. Speakers after the other, deliberately or rather uniformly failed to recognize the presence of Raila Odinga who by stature is a national leader with a tremendous influence. Odinga was denied a chance to address the nation which was in all senses done in bad taste. It doesn’t add up that presidential protocol saw it important inviting Raila to the faction but denying him a chance to speak. This is easily read as a political calculation that was aimed at humiliating Raila and undermining his strength. It is a political season and there’s nothing wrong playing it, however, this was not any other event but a national holiday. The same way people look at Uhuru as their leader is the same as Raila with his massive following. Sidelining of Raila has perfectly boomeranged on the organizers. The event has been left with a hate and tribalistic tag.

    Both the President and his Deputy followed the suit of rest when they took to the podium, completely ignoring to recognize the presence of Raila in the event and even after the end of the function, didn’t bother to shake hands as it has been ritual on such occasions. It was hard listening to the President’s speech emphasizing on peace, love, and unity the greatest pillars of our existence yet in action they were publicly displaying, hatred, discrimination and turned a national event into a community event.

    If the two took the water they were preaching instead of wine, it would have been such a beautiful show of unity in a highly polarized country especially with the elections, to see both the three have cordial engagements even for the camera. The event has done more damage to cohesion than good. It wouldn’t have cost a muscle if Raila was given a second to even cough, it wouldn’t have dethroned the duo of the simply recognized the presence of Raila who represents interests of many Kenyans. But again here we have a government that has perfected the art of ignoring things from corruption to now ignoring people at events. We wouldn’t have a debate of they didn’t invite him. The struggles of freedom fighters to have a united country without hatred and discrimination amongst ourselves has been shitted on by the covfefe boys. While in ordinary cases we would’ve seen a walk out, it is admirable how Raila calmly handled the situation without a drop of drama and allowed the humiliation script to run smoothly. But there’s someone we call karma, she barely forgets.

    Happy Madaraka Day ladies and gentlemen. Let’s hope to have a better one next year because of this, was a hot mess. Too many childish behaviours can somebody grow up please.

  • Integrity: 20 Powerful Politicians In NASA And Jubilee Blacklisted From August Elections

    Integrity: 20 Powerful Politicians In NASA And Jubilee Blacklisted From August Elections

    With 8/8 fast approaching and politicians going on campaign overdrive, the civil society who gives the watchdog value for the community is not sleeping either. A campaign dubbed #RedCardKE is already creating enough havoc, this is a citizen’s driven 90-day campaign created to #RedCard all corrupt and unethical political aspirants, raise voter awareness and empower frontline institutions to hold the promise of Chapter 6 before all candidates.

    According to the campaign, 20 individuals both holding positions in NASA and jubilee have been marked as unfit for public office given integrity issues that they hold and asking the IEBC to bar them from participating in the August poll.

    Here’s the list and the set of accusations labeled against them by the accusing activists:

    1. Mwangi wa Iria – Governor Aspirant Muranga County

    Accused of purchase of 24 acres of land at Kshs. 340 million, a price that is way above the market value of the land.

    2. Kazungu Kambi – Governor Aspirant Kilifi County

    Accused of irregularly approving an exaggerated budget of Kshs. 5.05 billion for the construction of National Social Security Fund (NSSF) Tassia Phase 2 Project, a Kshs. 2 billion variations from the original Kshs. 3.3 billion; Kshs. 2 billion NSSF pensions fund.

    3. Oscar Sudi – MP Aspirant Kapseret Constituency

    The aspirant is accused of forgery of official documents and election into public office on account of falsified documents and intentionally providing false information.

    4. Moses Kuria – MP Aspirant Gatundu South Constituency

    He is subject to several counts of incitement to violence including against leaders, communities and journalists; disobedience of the law and hate speech.

    5. Mike Sonko – Governor Aspirant Nairobi County
    He’s accused of indecent conduct in public including alleged harassment of Mtwapa weighbridge government officers. Mike Sonko is also accused of involvement in a physical fight with Governor Kidero, disruption of proceedings of the Senate public accounts committee and is also subject to the allegation of influencing the award of a Kenya Pipeline Company for a Kshs. 1.35 billion kickback.

    6. Hassan Ali Joho – Governor Aspirant Mombasa County

    He is subject to questionable academic qualifications. Governor Hassan Ali Joho was also listed in United States (US) Embassy list of drug barons.

    7. Gladys Boss Shollei – Women Representative Aspirant Uasin Gishu County

    The aspirant is accused of procurement irregularities including the purchase of the official residence of the Chief Justice at the cost of Kshs. 310 million and authorization of Kshs. 46.4 million to build pre-fabricated courts at Mavoko Law Courts.

    8. Ochilo Ayacko – Governor Aspirant Migori County

    Accused of instigating violence during party nominations in April 2017.

    9. Evans Odhiambo Kidero – Governor Aspirant Nairobi County

    Kidero is accused of procurement irregularities of up to Kshs. 4.6 billion in a plan to launch a metro transportation system. The aspirant is also subject to allegations of bribery and payment of Kshs. 200 million to Justice Tunoi. Governor Kidero is also accused of indecent conduct in public and physical violence against a fellow public official. An IPSOS public perception survey released on September

    An IPSOS public perception survey released on September 8th, 2015 ranked candidate as fourth most corrupt leader after Anne Waiguru, Charity Ngilu and Deputy President William Ruto.

    10. Elizabeth Ongoro – MP Aspirant Ruaraka Constituency

    She’s accused of instigating violence during the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party nominations which led to her being barred by ODM from contesting on the party ticket.

    11. Baba Yao Ferdinand Waititu – Governor Aspirant Kiambu County

    Waititu was already declared unfit to hold public office in 2015 (Benson Riitho Mureithi vs. JW. Wakhungu and 2 others (2014) eKLR); Confesses questionable academic qualifications; Allegations of hate speech and endangering of intercommunal harmony and cohesion.

    12. Alfred Mutua – Governor Aspirant Machakos County

    Procurement irregularities of 16 Subarus worth Kshs. 147.3 million, Ambulances worth Kshs. 145.3 million and in the construction of Kithimani-Makutano road worth Kshs. 568 million.

    13. Asman Kamama  – MP Aspirant Tiaty Constituency

    Involvement in the ongoing clashes and involvement in the assassination of opponents.

    14. Alfred  Keter – MP Aspirant Nandi Hills Constituency

    Allegations of breach of Chapter 6 and provisions of Leadership & Integrity Act; Abuse of office, obstruction, and harassment of legitimate authority at the Gilgil weighbridge on 21 January 2015.

    15. Cyprian Awiti – Governor Aspirant Homa Bay County

    The aspirant is subject to an ongoing investigation by the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) into possible misappropriation of Kshs. 200 million meant for the Agro City project.

    16. Ken Lusaka – Governor Aspirant Bungoma County

    Under his leadership as the Governor of Bungoma County, his County Government purchased 10 ‘Special’ Wheelbarrows at the cost of Kshs. 1 million each. Beyond this, there is a case of conflict of interest as the candidate is accused of having links – through proxies – to M’Big Company that has won a bulk of Bungoma County contracts.

    17. Zacharia Okoth Obado – Governor Aspirant Migori County

    Embezzlement and loss of up to Kshs 600 million through procurement irregularities, violation of Section 11 of the Election Offences Act, 2016 including the use of and perpetration of violence during the ODM party nominations in April 2017 leading to destruction of property, loss of lives and intimidation of opponents by issuing threats.

    18. Anne Waiguru – Governor Aspirant Kirinyaga County

    Under investigations for the National Youth Service (NYS) theft in which Up to Kshs. 1.9 billion was lost in the NYS scandal under her watch as Cabinet Secretary (CS) for Devolution. Audit of NYS scandal is still incomplete. Abused, lost or unaccounted for budget includes funds meant for slum upgrading of 3.5 km road in Kibera slum which would have significantly improved physical accessibility and public health and sanitation in one of the biggest slum in Africa with approximately 250,000 dwellers.

    Waiguru gave directives that ensured procurement and payment were centralized at the NYS headquarters, hence overriding and undermining meaningful oversight by other State departments. An IPSOS public perception survey released on September 8th, 2015 ranked the candidate as third most corrupt leader. The candidate was declared unfit to hold public office by the Public Accounts Committee of Parliament in May 2017.

    Do you agree with the Red Card movement that those in the list must be barred from seeking election?

  • The Cartels At Orange House Putting Raila Odinga’s Presidency At Risk

    The Cartels At Orange House Putting Raila Odinga’s Presidency At Risk

    Over the past few weeks, the supporters of NASA have been on a full attack mode particularly online poking holes in the communication network of the coalition. Supporters have been expressing frustrations over the lack of a coordinated communication structures that they say has given jubilee an upper hand in winning the propaganda while getting away with lies. In most of the posts, The top party organs have come under attack over the lack of zealous campaign strategies while taking their support for granted.

    Kenya Insights embarked on a fact-finding mission to unearth the biggest obstacles at the ODM’s Orange House which are practically NASA headquarters given the parties stakes. We’ve established that the building is occupied by some shady characters who’s the best interest is not the success of the party nor victory for Raila but rather their greed and selfish interests.

    Some of the problems that have come out clear in our investigations point out that there is no synergy between ODM and other parties in NASA. The other parties have refused to be part of a common command center. Even though talks are in crucial stages to have a central center for NASA coordination, original parties still operate from their establishments.

    2. ODUOR ONGWEN, this is the biggest impediment to an efficient system to make RAO the president. Ong’wen is a long-time friend to Raila, a statistician, and economist by profession, he’s an avid writer having penned for ODM in his columns. Previously, Ong’wen worked as the Director of Strategy, Policy, and Research in Raila’s presidential campaign team. At Orange House, we established that the ODM’s executive director is the total man and he runs the show. He pays people from his pocket. He has never called a single meeting to plan on anything. The ODM primaries were shambolic because of him. He embezzled all the money received from nomination fees. He received bribes to push candidates.

    The ED has amongst key accusations of Blocking establishment of an efficient communication team, Establishment of an independent presidential campaign structure and Shambolic party nominations. When pushed by party supporters to the wall, Philip Etale, The ODM’s Communication Director in low tones revealed that he is incapacitated and as frustrated. Etale’s office has no or minimal allocations to facilitate media operations. In the time of social media euphoria, it is shocking that ODM doesn’t have a single unit of bloggers to push their agenda with most who does doing it from their organizations. Money is always released or so is the word but never gets to the bloggers disappearing into thin air. Communication has no budgetary allocations yet have ideas to change the game.

    The system is so archaic; it is run by old strategists like Martin Oloo, Orengo and Nyong’o. They pull strings. While their experience in politics is diamond, the probabilities of being permeable to new ideas from the young and innovative are very high. Over time, it has been made clear that most of those who closely surround Raila don’t have his best interest at heart but okay as long as he remains beneficial to them.

    Presidential Center

    This is the center supposed to push for the presidential campaigns. This is where all the rot meet. Here, the office is a business center for cartels. They have the money but steal. For example the NDC, cartels refused to pay the PR company because it was brought by someone who is not part of them. Ong’wen is at the center of party failures, and he was recently rescued from an angry mob at Orange House who was baying for his blood following shambolic nominations.

    Section of ODM supporters whom we interviewed expressed their disappointment and concern with how ODM party officials are running the party. The lack of leadership, communication, and coordination has spurred anger amongst Kenyans. “We choose to speak up of the rot in Orange House Cartels that is resulting in a loss of supporter base and poor presidential campaign.” Said one of the defenders.

    Key Issues:

    •Weak controls at ODM elections board are resulting in chaotic primaries.
    •Growing Cartels, running the party for selfish & business interests e.g. sourcing for tenders
    •Passive, reactive and ineffective communications at ODM resulting in loss of grassroots support Cartels
    •Poor leadership by Exec Director – flawed on campaign management, budgetary allocation, comms & political strategy Cartels
    •Lack of an independent presidential campaign structure to position coalition candidate Cartels

    Unanimously, the aggrieved supporters made suggestions that:

    •A change in ODM party leadership to that which is transparent, accountable and efficient.
    •Shift in political strategy, to establish proper campaign framework that links to grassroots to improve voter contact
    •Reprioritization of resources to ensure proper communication, branding and messaging.
    •Expansion of party base and think-tanks to include volunteers willing to support the party

    “ODM is a key NASA member & the stability of the coalition rests on democratic and stable parties. Party unity is key, & a healing process for winners & losers of the ODM primaries is needed to guard against fractions and disharmony. ODM should handle the campaign with the seriousness that it deserves & knowing that hopes and aspirations to kick out JAP in 08/08 rest on Raila. Through Raila, many see the revival of a stable democracy and economy in Kenya. These can only happen if ODM gets its house in order.”

    Structural mistakes is what in the past has minimized Raila’s chances of winning election and this given to be his last shot, he can’t afford a single blunder, a well established strategic communication system must be in running knowing they’re not dealing with saints. Jubilee has invested heavily in communication because they know the secret in persuasion is in changing perceptions. Time is running out and NASA has little time to put the house in order. A presidential election is not a bedroom affair but needs a serious structural layout to achieve stainless results. Jubilee has this election to lose but blunders made by NASA would easily cost them their guaranteed victory. Kenyans are devastated with high cost of living that has shot up under jubilee, this is the issues we want to see being addressed and the new campaigns agenda.

  • A Good Year To Elect A Woman As Hope Gleam

    A Good Year To Elect A Woman As Hope Gleam

    If you want something said ask a man, if you want something done ask a woman the famous words by Margaret Thatcher clouds my thoughts as I get down to scribble this. Women world all over have been battling with make chauvinism for the longest time and undergone countless obstacles to be viewed as having equal rights in the society. While agreeable improvements have been formulated and implemented, the society is yet to fully embrace the newly empowered woman with an education and economic independence, men still feel threatened by this aggressive and go getta women going for the rooftop.

    Africa, a traditionally male-dominated continent with discriminatory history on women, did the unusual when Ellen Johnson was elected as the President of Liberia making her the first female President to be elected in Africa. This was a significant milestone in the male-dominated political world. However, all isn’t glamorous, women in Kenya have been fighting for equal representation in parliament and other arms of government. Despite engraving of the constitution, the two third gender rule that guarantees equal gender representation, the fruits are yet to be fully enjoyed. Parliament on several occasions has shut down the full implementation of the two-thirds gender rule.

    Unlike previous elections, August polls give a glimmer of hope as many women are set to win big posts. Instead of waiting to be served on a silver plate, 2017 has seen women going out of the comfort zone by taking the fight to the men’s doorstep. It is encouraging to see the number of women who floored men in the just concluded party nominations; it shows how commitment, determination, and confidence are a great recipe to spring up women to take over leadership.

    Studies have shown that women are more likely to make beneficial political policies that would be advantageous to the society as opposed time who’re primarily self-centered. But from the nominations, You can see it hasn’t been a smooth ride for women; they’ve been subjected to violence, sexual abuse, threats and intimidation, misogyny and dark mud dragging.

    Esther Passaris and Nairobi Deputy Governor Mueke at a party function.

    Esther Passaris who’s carrying ODM’s flag for Nairobi Woman Rep and is projected to floor Jubilee’s Shebesh come August, is a good example of many female political aspirants who’ve been a target of misogynists and male chauvinists. It remains a clear picture on many minds how Miguna Miguna, a candidate for Nairobi gubernatorial seat, launched scathing personal attacks on her during a live national interview that would later see JEFF Koinange live suspended over the embarrassing sexism episode.

    Passaris has also had to battle attacks on her sexuality from admirers clothing as critics who’re in few coins payroll, running a failed character assassination attempt. It is, however, admirable how she’s ignored and instead concentrate on her agenda for the Nairobi women and youths. A woman’s worth is not really what is between the legs, but ears, baseless accusations, and political witch hunting must therefore not be tolerated in locking out progressive leadership that this country so much need.

    Passaris is not the only victim, women are being attacked and their sexuality used against them. In run up to the Jubilee nominations, a shy Karen Nyamu tells a victim when a sexually charged video of her showing her posterior was leaked online in a name shaming campaign against her. There are so many of like cases countrywide.

    Statistics shows that women make 52% of the country’s population translating to 60% of the registered voters. This is a clear picture that the direction this country will take, mostly depends on the voting pattern adopted by women and youths. It is encouraging again that unlike 2013, Kenya is set to have the first ever female governor in 2017. In Kirinyaga, there’s undoubted surety that either Martha Karua or graft-tainted Waiguru will carry the day, Joyce Laboso is giving CCM’s Rutto a run for his money in Bomet, In Machakos, Wavinya Ndeti is giving Alfred Mutua sleepless nights, Ngilu is also going for Kitui. A Good number of women are going for other elective posts as well.

    Samantha Maina an MCA aspirant for Kileleshwa.

    This is the time for women in this country to stand up and be heard if you want your interests to be heard then no one would do it better than your own. Vote them in, and let us see if things would change. We have serious women who’ve fought men in this misogynistic ground of politics to make a brand and identity for themselves. Current women representation has not been as aggressive; we need iron fist women leadership after August to square it with the men. Let’s have the Ngilus, Karuas, Passaris, Aishas, Wavinyas…in the next set of representatives and make women representation great again. The key is in their fellow women’s hands. Instead of crying foul for discrimination and inequality, change the tone by voting.

  • Jubilee Strategists Overhauls Social Media Team With Traditional 36 Bloggers Sidelined

    Jubilee Strategists Overhauls Social Media Team With Traditional 36 Bloggers Sidelined

    JUBILEE Social Media Machineries And PR Team All At Menopause Stage

    When a Woman reaches menopause stage; she is unable to conceive and lacks sexual drive (libido), gratification, excitement. Mechanisms which have been or rather being applied by Jubilee Party PR team which is led by the low self-esteem Dennis ‘Veronica’Itumbi to counter attack the great NASA plans to renovate the crooked shape of Kenya Nation seems to be running out through metamorphosis.They have instead made a U-turn into Identity Theft which is a Cyber Crime, but it won’t be sorted in Court, it’s just dirty politics which pops in when someone run out of ideas because of the same monkeys in a different forest.

    When we realized Jubilee smart cards which were to be used for Party primaries was a multi-million scam,it was a plus for the 36bloggers on Twitter who used to be paid 527/- to push Jubilee government agenda since they were promised increment of triple the 527/- and were to be paid at end month.Days, weeks and months passed their account remained stagnant, doors locked over rental arrears, their assets auctioned.They vanished from pushing Government agendas through hashtags on Twitter and blogs.They have never been paid!

    Dennis Itumbi led team had to plan a new blueprint strategy to encounter Opposition Online team and instead settled on creating Fake Parody accounts in facebook and twitter where masses are, and fake Websites of NASA tainting its Flagbearer’s image to hoodwink, twist and create tension on Opposition supporters.I understand, and I’ll die to believe these are last kicks of a dying horse and prior signs and symptoms of menopause.

    Dennis Ole Itumbi alias ‘Veronica’s have been a job seeker because of his childishness, low self-esteem and palpitations ever since he was fired and blocked against any force of gravity that might try to siphon him near Statehouse premises as head of Digital Communication Strategy.He is back to his previous position as ‘just’ Certificate holder blogger.Veteran Journalist and mastermind behind KTN Tv program “Chamwada Report” Alex Chamwada took over his position as newly appointed Head Digital Communication Strategy. When Itumbi was fired by President Kenyatta in a crackdown strategy, he refused to handover blueprints and relevant resources which were to be used by the new team.He is still being followed by bulls on heat, being hired for malicious plans.

    Lately, Jubilee has shifted to sponsoring mainstream media houses through the Chamwada-led team.Here are few observations: News hitting hard at Opposition are given more airtime than news hitting Government; In interviews, Opposition affiliated respondents are always asked peeling off the mask queries while Government affiliated are asked kindergarten questions; Jubilee hullabaloo events being aired while Opposition’s events are Censored.

    Infamous Uhuru’s dab

    Back to twitter world which is believed to be the second government.Jubilee did away with 36bloggers and went miles ahead to bribing @twitterke which evidently have been censoring hashtags hitting Government and its agencies from trending topic list.This has led to the laying off of all twitter Kenya operating team,@TwitterKe suspended their account due to this incompetence of its team and management.Are you still asking where the multi-millions from the smart cards are being used?

    The dirty expenditure has just begun!

    Recently, reports of great concern have reached my desk regarding fake parody accounts speculating propaganda by the following Identities:

    1.The Real Raila (Anti Raila)-Sponsored Facebook page with over 80,000-page likes, twitter handle @therealraila and website www.therealraila.com.Note this:1page like cost 1$=100kshs meaning 80k×100=Kshs 8,000,000 and remember this is a government project behind bars.Whose money is being used? Also the website and the twitter handle have all been sponsored and are more expensive compared to Facebook advert policy and payments.

    2.The National Super Alliance (NASA) -which has over 100,000-page likes, do the math and get the cost.Kenya will soon be declared bankrupt.On 5th May, the administrators sponsored blogs with the content of fake reports claiming ditching and resignation of NASA deputy flagbearer Kalonzo Musyoka from the coalition and was to make press statement the day after which never happened.

    Itumbi’s tactics are never dynamic, always the same old tricks to the same old dog: During IEBC-CORD war alias ‘Teargas Monday,’he published a ‘leaked’statement regarding CORD’s strategic plans against the government which included the war on IEBC, sponsoring doctors strike.Identity Theft. Sometimes back he again published his Statements on behalf of an NGO by the name Nothern Advocacy for Sustainable Agriculture (NASA) which was ‘Optimistic’ to halt Opposition’s political alliance National Super Alliance (NASA) to use another name due to confusion, fortunately, failed terribly. Here he again went ahead with the same trick to publish his own ‘leaked’ Kalonzo’s plan on ditching NASA and going for the presidency alone.Am willingly calling upon Itumbi to enroll for my lessons to at least get new tricks.

    Below is the list of the Administrators managing the above parody accounts:
    Dennis Itumbi(Name)-Dennisi(Login)
    James Murithi(Name)-jamesm(Login)
    David Nzioka(Name)-davidn(Login)
    Ali Yassine(Name)-aliy(Login)
    Nyaga Mbitiru(Name)-nyaga-mbitirugmail-com(Login)
    Wambui Gichuru(Name)-wambui-gichurigmail-com(Login)
    Karissahallstrom(Name)-karissahallstrom(Login)
    Kieranw(Name)-kieranw(Login)
    Filip(Name)-itsfilipoficial(Login)
    Jubi(Name)-jubiadmin(Login)

     

    Author-JohnBosco Juma
    Follow-@JohnBosco_Juma

    This article expresses the author’s opinion only. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Kenya Insights or its Editors. We welcome opinion and views on topical issues. Email: [email protected]

    Author-JohnBosco Juma
    Follow-@JohnBosco_Juma

  • Raila Loses To Uhuru Even Before The Campaigns Officially Kicks Off

    Raila Loses To Uhuru Even Before The Campaigns Officially Kicks Off

    Politics is science meaning finer details can’t be viewed with naked eyes. It needs deeper analysis to understand the unwritten aspects adequately. Communication is one thing, strategic, effective communication is everything. It is for this simple reason that even African dictators have resorted to services of international communication consultancy firms to help them control masses and eventually retain power. In recent elections where the opposition has been uprooting till death do us apart Presidents, have a strategic communication system to attribute their successes to.

    In politics, perception is critical and how you build that iS entirely up to you, but you must make a narrative to serve your agenda. Psychological manipulation, building perceptions is why explicitly or perceived rogue leaders get overwhelming support, look at Sonko and the support he’s commanding despite negative publicity. Unity and Ruto had serious crimes hanging over their heads but used the loophole of psychological twisting to build a favorable perception that they were innocent and only being sacrificed by Raila to be crucified in public land.

    While the reality and culpability to the alleged crimes remain open book, the duo manipulated facts and changed perceptions that would later cost the favorable Raila a win in the election.
    Propaganda is a traditional take on trade in politics that has worked for systems worldwide. The effectiveness of a well-choreographed propaganda can’t be put any better. Politics is not a game for the Saints, and that’s the unwritten truth, you either get your hands dirty or find yourself in the cold.

    Jubilee unlike 2013 where they ran on a youthful new leadership euphoria and ICC bond, have totally lost leverage and despite the fact that we’re less than 100 days to the general elections are yet to settle on a central campaign platform. Jubilee has tried to use development as their campaign agenda capitalizing especially on infrastructure, going as far as launching a portal to sell their record including massive mainstream media hyping of same records but this has proven to be a task to sell. Cost of living has disturbingly shot up in the last four years that it becomes nearly impossible to convince the poor mwananchi who’s spending more to put enough food on the table that the country has developed.

    Development and improvement of the economy to the normal mwananchi who survive on hand to mouth basis is not the SGR or any other infrastructural development but the table, if they can’t feel it in the household, then everything else is music to a dead ear.

    The effectiveness of building perceptions has seen opposition squarely paint jubilee as a corrupt government given unending scandals; they ensured all fraud schemes were exposed and this is the ugly stain that Jubilee has struggled to remove in vain. Economic ratings rank Kenya as steadily rising with impressive GDP, but the apparatus speaks a different reality. Cost of living in Kenya has shot up to ridiculous levels, companies have either been downsizing or leaving Kenya because of the extreme business environment, the unemployment rate has hit an all-time high of 46%. This is the loophole and advantage that NASA has jumped into promising magic of resetting Kenya to default settings of affordable life.

    President Kenyatta receives Gitobu Imanyara as a Jubilee partner.

    The high cost of living remained NASA’s greatest bargaining power and campaign platform until Jubilee saw a lapse in their communication system and rushed in to spoil the party, convening a special Parliament meeting to discuss how to lower food prices with a supplementary budget to the same. NASA had a golden opportunity to maximize and milk this failure on the government entirely but has failed to capitalize on Jubilee’s failures. It takes prompt and flawless media strategic position to build a narrative around this and change perceptions. This was the opportunity to expose the poor governance in Jubilee which is to blame for the state the country is in. This was the time to task Jubilee to explain to Kenyans why they didn’t put in place effective food security measures.

    It is also the time NASA would be making Jubilee lose weight explaining where the 15B allocated to Galana Kulalu irrigation project that was meant to answer to food shortage go; it failed terribly. It is also the time Jubilee would be tasked to answer as to why drought eradication can’t include water harvesting even as we have heavy rains. Kenya can’t run on 90s management yet we expect change, effective governance would have factored in that by now. Also, an opportune time to ask why to take fertilizer supplied to farmers turned out to be fake and infectious leading to drop on corruption. A subsidy from the government, who supplied farmers with plastic fertilizer.

    The Kibandas don’t serve the extra ugali piece(sosa) anymore, and this is where that juacali artisan is directly affected, maize prices had shot up more than double amount from when Jubilee took power, during campaigns, Ruto is quoted promising for unga prices to go down on taking office, this would’ve have been perfect time to replay him the videos and ask what happened. Prices of domestic goods have altogether shot up, and this is why it was such a great campaign platform that Jubilee couldn’t allow to go, it is felt in all households.

    While Jubilee’s move to help reduce the cost of essential commodities is a great move as regular mwananchi will get a reprieve, It exposes the put out of touch nature of the government, everything happened under their watch, unconcerned until reality hit that it was being used as campaign platform against them. The sudden concern for the affordable cost of living is, therefore, more plastic than silicon on those glands.

    NASA took their time to fully capitalize on this either because they didn’t have in place any plan, nI communication strategy or sheer incompetence by existing team or perhaps somebody thought miracles would happen as in Prophet Owuor crusades. The communication lapse gave Jubilee time to re-strategize in responding the failures. This is the price to pay for poor strategizing.

    Jubilee has an endless list of failures, and this doesn’t necessarily guarantee that Kenyans will reject them and that’s why they’re on a positive perception building overdrive How this is done, simple, media takeover. Jubilee is running ads and commanding maximum mainstream media coverage. You control the media you control the masses.

    Jubilee has also revamped their online army even though most are malnourished with pending payments. Latest project ‘The Real Raila’ which is a direct demonizing campaign on Raila, is heavily funded by Google, Twitter, Facebook sponsored posts. The project which has been exposed to have a base in Statehouse under Dennis Itumbi watch is running ads daily spending millions.

    Unlike Jubilee’s 36bloggers who’ve in their ineffective online campaigns have displayed ignorance and out of touch with everything, NASA online soldiers evidently show articulation and grasp with typical issues. A well-managed communication system ought to take advantage of this to run a coordinated, effective online battle without which it is chasing the wind. NASA must keep in mind they’re not dealing with the common political outfit, Jubilee has invested in propaganda arsenal which can only be squashed with timely communication, giving a false narrative to travel won’t take it back if the war is online, counter with a well motivated and competent team same to mainstream. Media create agendas that switch perceptions.

    In 2013 September, five months after Jubilee took over power, effective September 2nd, 2013, among other products the prices of milk, newspapers, textbooks, fertilizers, and mobile phone handsets went up as a result of implementing the new VAT Act 2013.

    The previously VAT exempted commodities were now subjected to 16% VAT. Under that new law by Jubilee, the 12% rate for electricity, as well as the electricity exemption for certain households, was also repealed.

    Also, according to that law, effective 1 September 2016 (last year) certain petroleum products became taxable with 16% VAT. The changes have led to a strong impact on Kenyans increasing the overall costs of living. According to William Ruto (in 2013), the purpose of the drastic VAT change was to generate revenue for the nation’s development agenda.

    The money was scheduled to go into public constructions including road and rail system improvements. It should also help the public hospitals. This was in 2013, fast forward to 2017. Kenyans are feeling the pinch. The cost of essential commodities is beyond the roof, but Jubilee is blaming the cost of living on drought. It is fallacious for Jubilee today, to claim that it is doing all it can to reduce the cost of living.

  • Clean Sweep Of Jubilee Tickets In Nairobi By Kikuyus Prompts Boardroom Deals For Ethnic Balancing

    Clean Sweep Of Jubilee Tickets In Nairobi By Kikuyus Prompts Boardroom Deals For Ethnic Balancing

    Pangani Jubilee’s Headquarters in has been flocking in the past weeks with nomination issues. The bulk of items being handling disputed polls. However, away from the public limelight, Jubilee is struggling with a tribal ogre following the emergence of clean sweep of most seats in the City County by aspirants from the Kikuyu community dealing a significant blow to the inclusiveness feature the party embedded its roots in the ‘Tuko Pamoja’ slogan which meant ti market it as a unifying party other than a tribal outfit.

    The majority of constituencies have been won by members of the Gema community. A case in focus that prompted action from Statehouse being Embakassi East where all aspirants from the MP to the 5 MCAs were all Kikuyus. Kenya Insights has learned that emergency meeting instigated by the President and chaired by DP Ruto was convened with all the aspirants summoned in a bid to broker a deal that would cushion the shame of ethnic imbalance in the constituency.

    From the meeting, Francis Mureithi who won the Jubilee ticket with a clear lead of 6685 votes with his second opponent Steven Waruinge Maina getting 3895 votes, has decided to shell his parliamentary ambitions by giving up the ticket to a candidate from a different tribe. Utawala Ward won by Patrick Karani, Mihango Ward won by Paul Muiruri, Embakassi by Joe Mutugi, Savannah by Charles Kariajahi and lower Savannah by Duncan Chege. The five aspirants now have to sacrifice the at least three positions to accommodate other tribes with strategists in the deal proposing Luo, Luhya, Kisii. This would also expand into the nomination chances during county assembly choices by Jubilee party.

    Aspirants have been holding series of deal brokering meetings through the day to meet deadline put up by the DP Ruto. ODM, on the other hand, is looking into having a favorable candidate that will give jubilee a run for their money with Babu Owino being a favourite. A balanced jubilee line up with ethnic balancing would change voting dynamics as it would bring a sense of inclusion. We learn that the headache of ethnic balancing within Jubilee is affecting many constituencies and aspirants.

  • In Raila Odinga As NASA Flagbearer, Jubilee Hit With Worst Nightmare

    In Raila Odinga As NASA Flagbearer, Jubilee Hit With Worst Nightmare

    Raila cannot win any election, he’s the weakest candidate, he’s unelectable, he’s polarizing, he’s a perennial loser, Raila will never be the President of Kenya. Same song just a different stage, Raila has just been named as the NASA flagbearer, and the familiar demonizing tunes of his name unsurprisingly hit the airwaves.

    Honestly, when the idea of opposition uniting was conceptualized, It was pretty obvious who would take the mantle, to NASA supporters, It was never going to be anyone else but Raila, a reality they carried through despite hiccups. As for Jubilee, Raila was the marked man, but they prayed day and night for things to turn up otherwise until the nightmare became a reality when he was named.

    Only a fool would root for a stronger opponent when entering a boxing ring with a total assurance of blackout in the first few seconds. As an enemy, you try as much not to show your opponent your fears and point out their strengths. Instead, you point out their weaknesses tricking them into being their strengths.

    NASA Pentagon making an entrance into the naming of the flagbearer event at Uhuru Park

    In 2013, ICC gave UhuRuto a huge platform to campaign and mobilize their ethnic blocs to come out in large numbers, and they sure did in a bid to save their sons from mzungu noose instigated by Raila, that was the lying line that sold the stale bread. Fast forward to 2017; Jubilee is yet to settle on a campaign platform even though hanging on their development record. Voters have shifted in mind mindset looking for results-oriented leadership. Under the last four years of jubilee, health, unemployment, the high cost of living amongst other recession factors has hit the country and citizens making informed ballot choices of the nominations are anything to go by.

    Jubilee studied all the NASA candidates, their potentials and the one thing that was clear, only Raila posed the greatest threat to disruption of the system. In a mind game war, ridicule and belittling the idea of Raila candidacy took precedence; the fallacy was pushed and adopted without proper chewing. It is unsurprising you’ll meet intoxicated minds saying Raila is a run over for Jubilee without clear explanation. And if any you’ll be treated to he has lost previous elections, Jubilee knows his game plan he’ll be defeated again.

    Defeating Raila is easier on paper but I’ll tell you why from the outside Jubilee is confident but deeply inside terribly shaken to near wetting their pants. Elections are won on two fronts, voter turnout, and economic mobilization. It’s on these principles that NASA had to crack their brains to settle on a neutral candidate who would strike it in the middle.

    Unveiling of the official NASA logo

    In 2007 elections where the outcome of elections turned violent, Raila believed his victory was stolen, even though Judge Kriegler’s findings didn’t single it out, the study pointed to a bungled victory for Kibaki. In 2013, again Raila claimed he was short changed, and the matter went to the Supreme Court. To read the pattern, Raila’s opponents may have perfected the art of stealing his victory and using the profiling to get away with it. Branding Raila as a perennial and whining loser is a threat to credible elections as players would quickly invest in the demonizing game to get away with the shambolic election.

    August general election comes with crucial electoral reforms that are meant to make elections rigging proof and this should worry Jubilee if they had fraud as part of their winning strategies. Parallel tallying and confirmation by the court that results are legitimized as soon as they’re announced by the returning officers closing the loophole of results manipulation changes the games. The peace of the country as it stands is embedded in the credibility of the polls, for this reason, IEBC must ensure a tamper-proof election.

    It is laughable when veteran Jubilee supporters allude that they’d vote for an alternative NASA candidate other than Raila, this is just hot air, dynamics of voting especially in presidential elections remains the same with tribal card taking a toll. Even if NASA gave a Mudavadi/ Kalonzo ticket, there wouldn’t have been any substantial shift in support, and that’s a simple fact.

    NASA had to go for a candidate with considerate support but most importantly one who would cause serious voter turnout and with guaranteed voting bloc. Kalonzo carries a significant block of Kamba votes, but his ability to fully energize his base seemed shaky, he’s currently facing distinction threats from Chap Chap’s Alfred Mutua. After all, he has been a vice-president, a running mate, and a presidential candidate. Yet he has never fully delivered the Kamba vote.

    When Kalonzo ran on his own, in 2007, he polled 879,903 votes against Raila’s 4,352,993. Of this, only 153,117 votes were from outside Eastern. More interesting, the total vote he got in Eastern — 726,786 — was only 63 percent of the total number of voters in Ukambani. He was unable to convince over 30 per cent of Ukambani.

    Mr. Musalia Mudavadi of ANC, an early favorite, does not hold the Western vote. He also seems to have little support outside western Kenya, despite his name recognition across the country. In 2013, he managed only 353,858 votes in Western, a region with 1,214,285 voter turnout numbers. Outside of his western political base, he got only 130,123 votes. In short, Mr. Raila Odinga of ODM got more than two times what Mr. Mudavadi got in Western.

    People lie, numbers don’t. August general election will only be one based on voters turn out. Raila can guarantee a formidable turnout that would send jubilee into serious strategizing. Nyanza, Western, Eastern, and Coast remains vital vote taps that NASA must get out to guarantee a round one win. Raila is also the only candidate amongst the principals who has the potential to attract support outside his background bloc, and this has been proven. His strengths ran way above any thought of combination, and it is for this reason jubilee would’ve tried all means to see the coalition tear apart or have anyone else being flagbearer being the candidate.

    If indeed Jubilee isn’t scared of Raila and sees him as the weakest candidate and a guaranteed run over then they can as well go for an early celebration, save the energy and money for campaigning instead just sent back home and wait for the next Uhuru’s inauguration but they won’t and this the point where the real threat of a Raila candidacy hits everyone. A united opposition can’t be wished away; it sent away Moi, has been sending away veteran dictators across Africa and Jubilee isn’t immortal. It is games time ladies and gentlemen. El Classico!

  • Rigging Elections In Africa Getting Harder With Civil Society Surveillance And Mobile Technology

    Rigging Elections In Africa Getting Harder With Civil Society Surveillance And Mobile Technology

    Protests against the reelection of Gabon's President Ali Bongo
    Protests against the reelection of Gabon’s President Ali Bongo

    As Gabon is rocked by violence following the contested re-election of President Ali Bongo, experts says electoral fraud in Africa is becoming harder, thanks to civil society vigilance and spread of mobile technology.

    Opposition leader Jean Ping on Friday declared himself the rightful president of Gabon and called for a recount, following Bongo’s claim of victory with a razor-thin margin of just under 6,000 votes in the August 27 election.

    But recent elections in Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Benin and Burkina Faso have all been held largely without dispute, overseen by engaged citizens who assured careful monitoring of the process, said Mathias Hounkpe, Political Governance Programme Manager for the Open Society Initiative for West Africa (OSIWA), which promotes greater government transparency. “It is more and more difficult to commit fraud,” he said.

    Preventing fraud with ballot papers was down to a clear legal framework for organising elections, electoral bodies “in a position to respect the rules”, independent figures such as international election observers and a free press and active social media users who would guarantee a fair vote, according to Hounkpe. For Aboubacry Mbodji, secretary-general of the African rights group RADDHO, west and central African countries such as Senegal, Ghana and the Atlantic island of Cape-Verde have shown Africa how a successful democracy holds an election.

    A strong civil society and the combination of free media and citizens with access to new technology to disseminate information was “extremely important”, he told AFP. Senegal, where RADDHO is based, saw “a change at the top” in 2000 when liberal candidate Abdoulaye Wade challenged the socialist regime that had held power for 40 years, and was elected president for two terms. Government fightback But Wade himself was booted out in 2012 after angering voters with attempts to stay on for a third stint in power, showing the maturity of the electorate, Mbodji said. “(The 2000 election) was in large part thanks to the use of mobile phones, but also the internet,” he added.

    Any party members tempted to tamper with ballots had to face the large numbers of Senegalese who remained in place at voting stations to ensure it passed off peacefully, he said, and reporters who called in the results to media from mobile phones, especially radio stations, covering the event. The last 15 years have seen organisations such as “Y en a marre” (We are sick of it) in Senegal, “Balai citoyen” (Citizen sweep-up) in Burkina Faso and “Lutte pour le changement” (Fight for change) in the Democratic Republic of Congo appear, intent on pressing governments to be less opaque.

    Despite the trend towards more transparent elections, heavy handed government reactions have not entirely vanished, with internet and social media shutdowns during presidential elections in Uganda in February and in Congo-Brazzaville in March, and now in Gabon. “The African Union observers couldn’t even communicate properly to complete their tasks,” Mbodji said, referring to the Congo election that returned longtime leader Denis Sassou Nguesso to power. But even the continent’s most entrenched leaders couldn’t escape the effect of the tidal wave of information the internet made possible, said Hounkpe. “Those in power have less and less capacity to manipulate the process.”

    Kenya is also another example where in the previous elections of 2013 done on a Biometric technology, allegations from the opposition were that it was a sham. Judiciary is what prevented the country from going up in flame by playing intermediary in solving the dispute.

    As we head to another fierce elections in 2017, concerns have been raised over the quality of elections with electoral body being restructured. The government is accused of scheming in with social media restrictive regulations through amendments acts now before parliament. This is seen as a gag motive as vigilant society stays top awake in the gear up to the next elections.

    -Adopted from AFP

  • Glorified Thieves, Corruption And Impunity Not Punishable In Kenya But Rewarded With Political Posts And Privileges

    Glorified Thieves, Corruption And Impunity Not Punishable In Kenya But Rewarded With Political Posts And Privileges

    Former Devolution CS Ann Waiguru who has also declared interest in Kirinyaga Gubernatorial Seat.
    Former Devolution CS Ann Waiguru who has also declared interest in Kirinyaga Gubernatorial Seat.

    When integrity of an individual should be of the greatest concern before they are trusted with the public office, Kenyan politics presents a different scenario. Looters are coming back to contest County top jobs where there is more to loot and impoverish the electorate. The former devolution and planning CS Ann Waiguru who left the office due to public pressure after she was adversely mentioned in the infamous NYS scandal for swindling shs 791 million has announced that she will be running for Kirinyaga gubernatorial seat. When it was all clear she quit her job for misconduct, Waiguru maintained she was innocent and only a whistle blower.

    She cited health reasons for her resignation and requested the president to assign her lighter duties, but immediately resorted to numerous consultations to vie for Nairobi seat. She has since shelved her interest in Nairobi gubernatorial seat after sensing defeat in good time. Nairobi seat has attracted big names like Mike Sonko, Water CS Eugene Wamalwa, Former Speaker of National Assembly Kenneth Marende and former Raila aide, Miguna Miguna.

    Kenya is a place where people who commit economic crimes are never punished. The heavily connected individuals steal from public coffers; step aside to clear their names at the EACC then return to vie for elective positions with the stolen money.

    Waiguru was hurriedly cleared of any wrong doings at the EACC and her case ‘disappeared’ even after the affidavit by one Josephine Kabura linked her to the scam. But like they say in entertainment, any publicity is good publicity. People who are known for looting public funds take that as being popular enough to vie for any seat and steal more. Look at people who eying political seats in the 2017 elections.

    Former lands CS Charity Ngilu who is facing corruption charges has also formerly announced her interest in Kitui’s top job. She made her announcement in her mother tongue asking the electorate of Kitui to support her bid saying she was the answer to the long time problems they are facing. She blamed the incumbent, Julius Malombe for allegedly failing to meet needs of the people as the community is still struggling with food insecurity and water shortage. A classic case of a pot calling the kettle black, Ngilu has headed the water docket in the previous regimes but she can only be remembered for nepotism.

    Ngilu who said she will run on a NARC Party ticket was at some point one the strongest female politicians in the country when she competed against the powerful Moi in the 1997 presidential elections. She then diluted her status and became a political bootlicker making pre-poll pacts with other presidential candidates who came after her. She had a pact with current regime of the day where had a short stint stained with corruption as minister for lands after failing to clinch senatorial seat in 2013. She lost her bid to one term MP, David Musila who is also in the race for Kitiui gubernatorial seat.

    Danson Mungatana, another long time failed politician who was rescued from poverty by his friend by appointing him to the Ports Authority Board that he grossly mismanaged leading to his abrupt duty termination, is tipped to by vying for Tana River Gubernatorial seat. His magisterial skills that’s expected of a governor has been tested and gave pathetic results.

    Another failed leadership scenario is that of Ole Lenku, the Security CS who is famed for being the SI unit of incompetence and utter floor flat perfomer in the Jubilee administration. His mom performance in his docket, prompted for his dismissal by the president following consistent public’s outcry. The mediocre proven Lenku has unfortunately launched his bid for Kajiado gubernatorial seat.

    What cursed as Kenyans, while in other mature democracies, corruption is punishable by death and in lenient situations, lifetime jail term. I’m Kenya, they loot from the public and same public turn around to worship,glorify them and rewarding them with even bigger political posts and in return expect better service delivery and even more psychopathic a corruption free zone from the same criminal elements.

    Elections in Kenya require good financial capital and if the recent IEBC rules to cap campaign expenditures are anything to go by then looters of public funds are better placed to ‘buy’ positions they are eyeing. The public has been forced to believe that the bank of justice is bankrupt; the corrupt selectively apply law to favour them. Ngilu and the likes cannot be barred from contesting any position because they will claim they are innocent until proven guilty and these cases never end. More looters will still launch their bids.

  • Forget About Capping Campaigns Expenditures IEBC Must Also Focus On The Source Of This Big Money

    Forget About Capping Campaigns Expenditures IEBC Must Also Focus On The Source Of This Big Money

    IEBC Chairman Isaack Hassan
    IEBC Chairman Isaack Hassan

    The outgoing IEBC commissioners last week published rules capping campaign spending in the coming 2017 polls. The rules have come under scathing criticism from various political players as a ploy to auction country’s political leadership to billionaires, and indeed it looks like it. This commission has been accused of being ‘bought’ by the moneyed politicians and the coalition wing that makes the ruling regime of the day.

    This was the worst last card the embattled commission would play after it lost the confidence of the opposition and public and a section of the religious leadership. When the former Chief Executive Officer of the Committee of Experts (COE) Mr Ekuro Ekuot defended the commission saying that his team keenly looked at the integrity of these individuals before giving them the job, the team forgot about integrity as a leadership value soon as they got into IEBC job.

    Kenyans with real integrity who may not be billionaires or part of the ruling elites will be so disadvantaged from taking leadership of this country or running for top political offices. What remains a crucial question is what forms their opinion. The rules are so unfounded and have only been thrown out of the blues just appear to be doing something ahead of the 2017 elections that they will not conduct.

    The commission has never published reports on the amount that was spent in the last elections by various political parties and candidates who participated in it. Neither have they told the nation the sources of massive campaign funds that politicians dish out and hold flashy campaigns with. All the top presidential contenders were flying in choppers branded with their respective party colours.

    When one thought the choppers would be of excellent service delivery to the people after the polls, the demise was before the first vote was cast.

    IMG_20160815_181520
    The capped amounts

    As much as they are still the commissioners till the new ones are appointed, IEBC should spare the nation unnecessary drama of crowding the office with ideas that add no value but mess the electoral process more. In fact, it should fix the BVR kits that fail on the D-Day than setting rules that will not be implemented at all.

    In the US for example at the federal level, campaign finance law is enacted by Congress and enforced by the Federal Election Commission (FEC), an independent federal agency. The system is open, and records are readily available of the financiers. Banks, individuals the list of contributors varies.

    In Kenya its known for businessmen and big empires also foreign agencies to support a political wing with a back expectation of securing personal securities. Tax evasion syndicate and dubious businesspeople have been sponsoring candidates to score favours. Industrialist Manu Chandaria, for example, is said to have heavily financed the NYK 92 for Moi’s reelection to buy favours and continue evading taxes and so has been the case of a counterpart and BIDCO owner Vimal Shah who as of now owes the tax collector up to Sh.6B in tax arrears.

    Dubious businessmen also choose on politicians to support to help hide their dirty money. With the records of financiers out there, voters can easily deduce the interests being reserved and the actual nature of candidates. Leaving the expenditure gap in billions gives room for drug lords and all the dirty dealers an excellent platform to launder their money in the name of financing candidates. It goes without mentioning that public funds are at stake and threat of being misused by those in a position of power. For integrity, we need to know really where all these billions being spent are coming from more than just how much.