Tag: Central Bank

Analysis: Can Kenya Sustain The Growing Heavy Public Debt

Public debt has been an issue of public discourse for centuries. The debate is not about to end anytime soon. With developing countries investing much more resources in public infrastructure, education and other social amenities, public debt is expected to become even a bigger point of discussion moving forward. Just before the March 4, 2013, General elections, Kenya for the first time, held a presidential debate. Uganda followed suit earlier on this year. From those debates, it is evident we are yet to start discussing ideas in our presidential debates. My guess, however, is that going forward, these discussions are going to tackle key issues affecting these emerging market economies, key among them the issue of Public debt.

To start us off, let us try to understand some key terms. Debt refers to a contractual obligation in which a party uses the counterparty’s money or any other valuable resource with the view of repaying it at a later date, with interest. People have been borrowing since time immemorial, and they are not about to stop anytime soon. As long as resources for satisfying human needs and wants are limited, we shall always consume something we do not currently own with intent to repay at a later date. Just like individuals, body corporate and governments too, borrow. Public debt is what a government owes to its lenders. Government/ Sovereign debt can be used synonymously with public debt. Public debt can either be domestic or foreign. The former involves borrowing from within a country’s borders and among its citizens while the latter involves borrowing from outside the country’s borders. It could be a loan from foreign nationals, foreign governments or even international financial institutions. Ordinarily, domestic debt is denominated in the local currency while foreign debt is likely to be denominated in a foreign currency. External debt, on the other hand, is the amount of money owed to foreign investors by both the government as well as the private sector.

Since the year 2013, Kenya’s public debt has been on an upward spiral. According to Keynesian Economics, there are two possible scenarios that would put a country’s debt on an upward trajectory; War and recession. Since war is unanticipated, it is usually not planned for adequately in the budget, and therefore in the event of war breaking out, the country is likely to start borrowing to fund the cost of the war. In a recession, the economy has slumped. Jobs are scarce, and demand for products within the economy dwindles. This reduces tax revenue that the government had anticipated and corporate profits plunge, leading to lower corporate taxes being availed to the government. In such a case, the government will operate on a budget deficit, which is, in fact, public debt. For the last four years, Kenya has neither had a war nor a recession. In fact, the Kenyan economy has grown enormously over the period, as H.E the president has persistently said.

Key Facts and Figures

As at 2013, Kenya’s debt ceiling was Ksh. 800 billion. That same year, Parliament in its wisdom or lack thereof raised this ceiling by 500 basis points. We ended the year with a debt ceiling of Ksh. 1.2 Trillion. By the end of 2014, Parliament had more than doubled our debt ceiling. It now stood at Ksh. 2.5 Trillion.This figure was higher than our budget for the financial year 2014/2015 which stood at Ksh. 1.7 trillion. Kenya Debt to GDP ratio has grown from below 30% in 2012 to currently stand at 49.7%, 4.97 points above the treasury’s benchmark.

Is Debt Bad?

In life, nothing is bad. Similarly, nothing is good in absolute terms. What matters is a person’s perspective. In the corporate world, most capital projects are undertaken through use of debts. Most individuals develop themselves by using debt. The government too can make enormous economic progress through the use of debt. In the corporate world, you will rarely find a company that operates on 100% equity. In fact, theoretically, the most valuable firm would be the one that is 100% leveraged. This is because, interest expense as a cost of capital, is a member of an exclusive club called “allowable tax deductions” To illustrate, let’s assume we have Firms A and B. A’s capital structure is 100% Equity while B’s capital structure is 100% debt. If these two companies make the same earnings before interest and tax, firm B will end up paying the lesser tax. Equity, as a cost of capital, is expensive. In practice, however, strong B does not exist. And if it did, it would have a very high risk compared to A. What companies therefore do, is to find a balanced mix between equity and debt. They get a debt that will enable them to enjoy tax benefits while not unnecessarily raising their risk profile. Finding the right balance is what governments should look at while borrowing.

Measuring a country’s public debt

There are various ways that can be used to judge whether a country’s debt is healthy or moving in the wrong direction. This article will attempt to look at Kenya’s sovereign debt using two approaches. The first method, which is preferred by most researchers, is to measure debt as a percentage of GDP. There is no rule of the thumb here. However, the world bank looks at it from two angles; developed economies and emerging market economies. According to the world bank, an extended debt to GDP ratio of above 77% drags economic growth. In fact, it states that for every additional point above the 77% mark, the country loses 1.7% in economic growth. For emerging market economies such as Kenya, the ratio should not exceed 64%. Any figure above that slows economic growth by 2% each year. As a matter of policy, the Kenyan treasury has set its target Debt: GDP ratio as 45%. This is 19 percentage points lower than what the World Bank considers to be the benchmark. To this, end one must appreciate the government’s proactiveness. 19 percentage points is a field, wide enough to play all manner of games.
The second approach that can be used to measure a country’s debt is to look at it about Government revenues. This measure gives you a rough figure of how long it would take for the government to pay its debts if it were to use its ordinary revenue to pay for its debts. The current debt for our country stands at Ksh. 3.2 trillion. The government, on average generates Ksh. 100 billion every month. If we were to use our tax revenues to pay our debts exclusively, it would take us 32 months only! This is, of course, wishful thinking.

Is Kenya headed in the right direction?

There is no simple answer to this question. As alluded to earlier, it is evident we cannot explain our growing debt using Keynesian Economics. However, in a growing economy, the following variables are expected to be on an upward spiral as well. They include population, revenues, expenditure among others. To cater for the increasing need to provide service to the growing public, the government will need to dig deeper into its pocket. At this point, debt is the only option. Unlike in private sector budgeting where expenditure is based on revenue, in public financial management, revenue is based on expenditure. The government comes up with an expenditure plan, before creating revenues. This is why most governments operate deficit budgets.
It is tough to answer the above question. The answer depends on who you ask. I know of a particular person who when asked about our high Debt: GDP, answers by stating that the USA’S Debt: GDP is at 106%.

“This is more than double our own; we should not worry.” He concludes.

France is at 116%, and Japan is at 228%. Bahama’s at only 6%. So if indeed Debt: GDP meant much, Bahama’s would be the most financially stable country in the world. This was as at 2015. Greece closed the year 2015 at 188%. We all know where Greece is, economically speaking.

The above argument is simplistic. It does not take into consideration the individual components of that debt.

Public debt is composed of domestic debt and foreign debt. A large chunk of the US debts are owed to its citizen, and even those owed to foreigners are mostly dollar-denominated thereby eliminating the foreign exchange risk. If bad comes to worse, the FED can just print more dollars to repay its debts. Conversely, as at August 2015, 51.9% of our public debt was external. The risk associated with the foreign debt is that it is exposed to foreign exchange fluctuations, meaning if the shilling were to fall, we would spend more money to pay the debt than we had anticipated. Of course, the government can still hedge against this exposure through the use of derivatives, such as interest rate swaps. However, such derivatives also come at a cost. Japan has the same case as the USA, most of its debts are owed to its own citizens. So, our Debt to GDP ratio should not blind us.

In conclusion, it is not easy to determine if our public debt is sustainable or not, however, if you try to find ou the answer, here is my advice: Borrowing for the purpose of incurring recurrent expenditure is financial illiteracy unless you are in a financial crisis. Secondly, borrowing to loot, in the name of infrastructure development, and borrowing to invest in white elephants like the SGR, is not sustainable.

Finally, it is Adam Smith who once said,
“What can be added to the happiness of a man who is in health, out of debt, and has a clear conscience?”

The writer writes to inform.
Follow on Twitter: @pcmakokha
Facebook: PC Makokha

Disclaimer: This article expresses the author’s opinion only. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Kenya Insights or its Editors. We welcome opinion and views on topical issues. Email:[email protected]
www.pcmakokhasays.wordpress.com.

October 3, 2016
Capping Interest Rates Risks Damaging The Kenyan Economy and Stunting Credit Growth, Experts Now Warn

The frontier market of Kenya isn’t often on U.S. or European investors’ radar. It should be. It offers a timely reminder of financial markets’ complacency about the risk of populism; and the attractiveness of bashing banks to win votes.

East Africa’s most advanced economy has introduced a law setting a cap on commercial lending rates and a floor on deposit payout rates, an instant squeeze on margins that sent shares of Kenyan banks to their lowest in years. Investors were clearly unprepared for a measure designed to make banks poorer — or less greedy, depending on your point of view — in the face of what Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta described as ordinary citizens’ frustrations about the cost of credit and earnings from deposits.

Kenya Crush

Bank stocks have plunged since the announcement of a law to cap lending interest rates

Source: Bloomberg

There’s no denying Kenyan banks make rich returns. The country’s largest bank by assets, KCB, has a return on equity of 24.7 percent, according to Bloomberg data, while rivals Cooperative Bank and Equity Group are on 24.5 percent and 26.9 percent respectively. That’s not just leagues ahead of the 5-7 percent ROE at Europe’s biggest banks, it beats the 15-18 percent at South Africa’s top lenders. Market concentration may have something to do with it: Kenya’s seven biggest lenders (there are about 43 in total) hold 80 percent of the banking system’s cash.

But capping interest rates risks damaging the Kenyan economy and stunting credit growth, a danger not lost on officials at the country’s central bank and finance ministry, who opposed the measure. If banks stop catering to anyone but the safest credit risk, it may encourage shadow banks or dodgy lenders to step in. If smaller banks find it harder to make ends meet, they may get bought up, making those dominant banks even bigger. And the new loan cap, at 4 percentage points above the base central bank rate, sets a potentially “unreasonable” ceiling for Kenya’s risk premium, according to investment firm Cytonn.

So why take such a chance? Well, next year’s election and a bank-bashing law may be just the ticket to win votes. Some analysts reckon it’s a purely populist move.

Yet the sell-off of Kenyan bank stocks over the past month suggests markets weren’t adequately prepared for this risk, with the chorus of credible dissenting voices perhaps lulling investors. And while it’s easy to dismiss this as the kind of problem specific to emerging markets, there are echoes of the anti-elite vibe in Europe and the U.S.

Championing the banks, in particular, isn’t much of a vote winner. The U.S. election has put the restoration of Glass-Steagall back on the table, with Republicans calling for big banks to be broken up. British chancellor Philip Hammond is trying to put a protective arm around the City of London by exploring continued access to Europe’s single market, but he’s clashing with the crowd-pleasing instincts of the “three Brexiteers”, Boris Johnson, Liam Fox and David Davis.

There’s still hope that pragmatism will prevail. Calls for a restoration of Glass-Steagall look like posturing, while Moody’s reckons that even if the U.K. quit the single market, its finance firms could probably still do plenty of business in the EU.

Yet the Kenya experience shows the potential for nasty surprises in a populist age, whether self-harming or not. Don’t forget that Brexit itself caught investors on the hop.

Adopted from Bloomberg

September 21, 2016
Fact Checking on Mobile Loans and Mshwari As Interest Rates Capping Pressure Piles

As the dust settles on the implementation of new laws on loans and deposits interest rates, the focus is now shifting towards areas that may not have been addressed explicitly or sufficient in the law, that has received praises from the mwananchi and sharp criticism from economists on its long-term effect on the economy, and that’s the Mobile money space.

Since a mid-last week, M-Shwari (a product of CBA and Safaricom) has come under attack from the Consumers Federation of Kenya (COFEK) as well as competitors, who claim that the product should be subjected to the Kenya Banking (Amendment) Act, 2016.

COFEK argued, “The law is clear that it applies to all loans. Whether offered directly or indirectly, any loan from a licensee of the Central Bank of Kenya via an agent and or mobile phone or any other technology is not exempt from the 4 per cent over and above the Central Bank Rate.” Launched in November 2012, Mswari set the pace for mobile loans attarcting others.

In seeking expert analysis on the Mshwari facts as policy of Kenya Insights, material available indicate that, there is no interest levied on M-Shwari loans. The only cost to the borrower is a one-off facilitation fee of 7.5%, charged at disbursement. Time value of money: Tenor of M-Shwari loans is 30 days only, as compared to competing products have longer tenors.

Interest and Fees/Charges are two different types of revenue.
Facility fees in the case for M-Shwari is return the lender earns from the activity of arranging credit. Fees are charged as either absolute amounts or relative amounts. Given the short-term nature of the credit (30 days) and the fact that a customer can payback sooner (at any time within the 30 days), it is more appropriate to levy a fee over interest.

Interest on the other hand follows the concept of time value of money and earns the lender an increasing return over time, for as long as the loan is outstanding. As such, interest is quoted per defined period either as per annum (over 12 months) or per month, etc. M-Shwari loans are levied a fee against the amount disbursed, irrespective of the repayment duration.

If COFEK’s position was to carry the day, we are likely to witness the following scenarios; Erosion of gains in Financial Inclusion- this is because it is the low income earners who usually use M-Shwari on a regular basis for economic gain. If M-Shwari is not viable for business, the bank may be forced to do away with it thereby reversing the gains that have positioned Kenya where it is.

Experts are warning that we would be facing an Economic slowdown/ exclusion- Many traders will be unable to access the more expensive lending products leading to the death of a number of businesses. High cost of credit- Alternative products are more expensive and this includes loan sharks. Failure to repay the loan on time, has very adverse repercussions. Tax Implications- CBA pays taxes on income from M-Shwari. Loan sharks and other competing products do not pay taxes.

Among these areas is mobile savings and lending, as well as discussions on who will lead in the efforts to amend the law and what will be reviewed therein. As the President said when signing the law, “We will implement the new law, noting the difficulties that it would present, which include credit becoming unavailable to some consumers and the possible emergence of unregulated informal and exploitative lending mechanisms.” It is not in doubt that the cracks are already emerging.
Quick Statistics
• Over 420,000 loan applications are made every day
• Over 70,000 loans are processed daily on M-Shwari.
• Majority of the loans are repaid within 30 days.
• Average loan amount is Kes. 3,200.
• Current NPL is by far, much lower by average than the ones you would find in commercial banks
• CBA has increased the interest rate on deposits made to M-Shwari accounts- in line with The Banking (Amendment) Act, 2016
• Close to 16 million customers on M-Shwari have made CBA the biggest bank by customer numbers
• Many small businessmen use M-Shwari as their working capital- with some borrowing and repaying up to 7 times a day.
• CBA has similar propositions to M-Shwari the E.A. region and plans are afoot to extend the footprint to other markets in the African continent. In Tanzania, CBA partners with Vodacom to offer M-Pawa (5 million customers), whilst in Uganda the bank has partnered with MTN to offer the recently launched MoKash.

Like in the media, who opposed digital migration, the banking players in Kenya have also been hesitant on adopting the new changes so it really shouldn’t come as a surprise when they pull dark innuendos but one thing we can’t deny is the fact that mobile loans has been to the advantage of the mwananchi who can now sit at the comfort of their homes and get a quick loan at the touch of a button a break from the traditional tedious ordeal in securing a loan from the Banks.

September 20, 2016
Expert Analysis: Betting And Gambling In Kenya, An Economic Sabotage Activity That Is A Fool’s Paradise

By Philip Makokha

It is common knowledge that Kenya is among the top countries in the world in Corruption matters. This evil that bedevils us has done us more harm than we can statistically quantify. From unemployment to under-employment, the Kenyan youth continues to harbor that elusive Kenyan dream, if ever, there was one. It is because of these economic upheavals that the youths engage in new frontiers to try and make ends meet.

From innovation to invention, an average Kenyan is trying through thick and thin to ensure that they can at least put a meal on the table. The new kid on the block as far as “hustling” is concerned, is Gambling. This article will try to approve or and disapprove gambling as an economic activity that is “The Next Big Thing.” Is a sport betting our new Oil??

A Wiseman once said, a fool and his money are soon parted. There has never been a time in Kenya’s history when this saying became so applicable than today. Gambling is different things to different people. The English dictionary defines it as the act of playing for stakes in the hope of winning. It includes payment of a price for a chance to win a prize.

Wilson Mizner defines gambling as ‘the sure way of getting nothing for something.’ Mizner’s definition thus, excludes existence of any direct Quid Pro Quo in gambling. Is gambling really this bad? If it is, why is it legal in Kenya? Does it have any economic benefits? Let us try to answer some of these key questions.

Before we delve into the nitty-gritty of the cost-benefit analysis of betting, let us first review why one would be interested in this activity in the first place. Psychologists have identified some of the reasons that lead to gambling as:
Desperation for money- this point is tied to the high rates of unemployment.

Since unemployed people do not have any regular source of income, they are generally, financially desperate. This desperation acts like a catalyst for them to gamble the few coins they have with the view that they will win big. After all, one of a gambling advert I see on T.V every day says…”IT IS BIG!” It is not in the gambler’s interest to doubt an alligator that has just come out of the river and reported the crocodile as sick!

Another reason for gambling is for the player to experience highs. Placing a bet and waiting for the final results of the match to know whether one has won or not, is such an enticing experience that keeps the players in some sort of stupor. Ordinarily, a person who engages in gambling based on this reason will have learnt it from peers. Gambling is generally high among youths because of peer pressure.

Supporters of gambling have advanced some key reasons in support of this industry. Some of the reasons are:
It aids in employment creation. In an economy where unemployment is officially at 25%, and unofficially at 60%, it is common sense that we need to create jobs. In this endeavor, we also need to diversify such that our jobs are not shaken by threats such as terrorism.

To this end, gambling both in casinos and on-line sports betting has created an avalanche of opportunities for the youths. In fact, Kenya boasts of 23 sports betting firms as at June 2016. These are in addition to many other casinos that have existed for decades. It is common knowledge that a lot of jobs have been created by these firms.

Ronald Karauri, Sportpesa CEO

It is a source of revenue to the government. At least 50% of our GDP is supported by government revenue in form of taxes. Gambling companies, like any other corporate, they too pay their fair share of taxes. This is a great source of revenue to the government. Other than taxes, they also pay relevant licensing fee to the relevant statutory organs, in this case, Betting Control and Licensing Board.

It is therefore reasonable to understand why the government would permit gambling activities within its jurisdiction. Macau in China, which is the largest gambling town on earth, generated Ksh. 45T in 2014. The second largest gambling city being Las Vegas, which made Ksh.6.5T. In fact, Las Vegas economy is more than 90% built on gambling. Prior to engaging in gambling, it was a mere desert with nothing to show to the world.

Looked at from the perspective of positive Economics, gambling is a good investment and a booming industry that poor countries can encourage as a way of uplifting them from poverty. This argument can be supported by the case of Las Vegas.

Whereas, the above points seem plausible, prima facie, a critical look at the gambling industry proves otherwise. The economic and social costs associated with gambling far outweigh any perceived benefits.

To start with, gambling leads to financial devastation. They say that gambling is a successful business because the house always wins. The player will generally start gambling with the aim of achieving some financial freedom. However, they never reach this level. The more one wins, the more they will gamble with the hope of winning much more.

This trend will continue till finally, they have lost all they had. At this point, one will find themselves in deep debts and financial troubles. Their gut feeling will be to further borrow and win back their bet, so the cycle will continue.

Yet another cost of gambling is job losses. Betting is like a drug. It is more dangerous than cocaine or heroin. It is addictive. The more one gambles, the more they are ensnared in this prison. Once addicted, it alters the normal functioning of the individual. Anxiety and depression will kick in and sooner rather than later, the productivity of the player at the place of work will deteriorate. The only logical end to this story will be firing of the employee who is unable to produce because of depression tendencies that have been caused addiction to gambling.

Julie Gichuru, a partner in betting firm M-Cheza affiliated to her father-in-law Samuel Gichuru entangled in KPLC multi-million heist

Studies also show that 66% of gambling addicts will engage in illegal activities to pay for their gambling debts. This therefore implies that crime rates will increase. The rate of criminal activities in a town prone to gambling is far much higher than the rate of crime in the general population. Mugging and drug abuse is higher among the betting population because of the need to get money for betting as well as trying to control anxiety and depression.

Gambling leads to a lot of family problems. Studies show that 90% of gambling addicts around the world have family issues. In the US, 65% of the couples that consist of one spouse with a gambling addiction end up divorcing. This is a social cost that positive economics overlooks.

In conclusion, we cannot deny the role played by gambling companies in Economic growth. Economic growth should not be confused with Economic development. Gambling can never help in economic development of any economy. While not overlooking the role of gambling as a growing industry especially in developing countries, it is important for us to understand that the Net Present Value of Gambling is negative. Its social and economic costs far outweigh its economic benefits. From a positive economic point of view, Betting/Gambling looks like the next economic frontier that has the ability to grow the economies of 3rd world countries. However, in social welfare economics, there is no Pareto optimality in gambling.

Finally, it is President Barack Obama who once said, “We didn’t become most prosperous country in the world just by rewarding greed and recklessness. We didn’t come this far by letting the special interest run wild. We didn’t do it just by gambling and chasing paper profits on Wall Street. We built this country by making things, by producing goods we could sell.”

The writer is a hustler with ideas that can change the world. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Finance from JKUAT.

Disclaimer: This article expresses the author’s opinion only. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Kenya Insights or its Editors. We welcome opinion and views on topical issues. Email:[email protected]

September 8, 2016
Expert Analysis: Interest Rates Capping, A Populist Move By President Uhuru Built On Sand Disastrous To The Economy In Long Run

President Uhuru signs into law the interest capping bill in Statehouse.

By Philip Makokha

That same day Jesus went out of the house and sat by the lake.2 such large crowds gathered around him that he got into a boat and sat in it, while all the people stood on the shore. 3 Then he told them many things in parables, saying: “A farmer went out to sow his seed. 4 As he was scattering the seed, some fell along the path, and the birds came and ate it up. 5 Some fell on rocky places, where it did not have much soil. It sprang up quickly, because the soil was shallow. 6 But when the sun came up, the plants were scorched, and they withered because they had no root. 7 Other seed fell among thorns, which grew up and choked the plants. 8 Still other seed fell on good soil, where it produced a crop—a hundred, sixty or thirty times what was sown.

The above text comes from the book of Matthew chapter 13. It piqued my interest because, government policies are like seed. The sower is the government- legislature, judiciary and executive. Assuming, an ordinary man immediately appeared after the seeds had started germinating, he would have been thrilled by the seeds sown on rocky ground that had sprung up quickly. I bet, he would even thank the sower.

It is human nature, to live in the present and enjoy facades, which are our daily lives. On August 24, 2016, H.E President Uhuru Kenyatta assented to the Banking amendment Act (2015) which among other things introduces interest rate ceilings and floors. In his statement after signing the law, the president says “…Upon weighing carefully all these considerations, on balance, I have assented to the Bill as presented to me. We will implement the new law, noting the difficulties that it would present, which include credit becoming unavailable to some consumers and the possible emergence of unregulated informal and exploitative lending mechanisms.

First, let us start from the very basics. Interest is the price charged on money. Since it is presented as a percentage, we refer to it as a rate. Interest rate ceilings/restrictions/caps refer to the maximum interest rate charged by the lender to the borrower. On the other hand, interest rate floor refers to the minimum interest paid on bank deposits i.e. deposit rate. The difference between the two is the SPREAD.

Ordinarily, these interest rates are driven by market forces- demand and supply. Market forces work best in a perfect competition market. This is a market where among other features; it has many buyers and sellers. Other markets are monopoly, oligopoly etc. It is not possible in practice, to find a market that is 100% its type e.g.100% perfect competition or oligopoly. Ordinarily, we characterize a market as perfect competition if the features of a pure competition dominate features of alternative market structures. Other than markets, we also need to look at different types of economies. An economy can be Command, free or mixed. Generally, Kenya is a free market economy. As to whether, the banking sector in Kenya is oligopoly or pure competition, I do not know. Theoretically however, it is a pure competition. The Kenyan economy is majorly free enterprise where an owner of capital can put it in any sector and await returns. Of course, there are regulations governing each of the sectors that an entrepreneur may venture into. These regulations are not necessarily barriers to entry.

INTEREST RATE AS PRICE FOR MONEY AND ITS DETERMINATION

Let us throw this animal called interest rate out of the window for a moment. Let us talk about and ordinary good-sugar. How is price for sugar determined? In any business transaction, there are two parties involved. The buyer (demand) and the seller (supply). The buyers want to buy at the lowest possible prices while the sellers want to sell at the highest possible price. So how is the price determined? The sellers will set a price that covers their production costs plus a mark up. The buyer wants to buy at a price that gives them value for money. In a market with only one seller and many buyers, the seller is likely to exploit the buyers while in a market with only one buyer and many sellers, the buyer is likely to benefit. In practice, there exist many buyers and sellers and therefore prices of items are determined at an equilibrium point. On a graphical presentation, this is the level where quantity demanded equals to quantity supplied. QUANTITY DEMANDED IS NOT DEMAND! The prices will generally hang in this range. The interest rate is determined in a similar manner.

BANKING IN KENYA: OLIGOPOLY OR PERFECT MARKET?

The answer to the above question depends on who you ask. Generally speaking, financial industry is a pure competition. There are many sellers and information is readily available. For example, you can easily know what Bank X charges as interest rate compared to Bank Y. Thanks to the Central bank of Kenya. Some people argue that banking industry is an oligopoly- there is a small number of sellers who control the market. To some extent, this is true. Kenya is dominated by less than 10 banks even though we have in excess of forty banks in operation. These banks, it is argued work in a cartel-like manner thereby charging unnecessarily high interest rates. What high interest rate is, am yet to understand.

WHY INTEREST RATE CEILING AND ‘FLOORS?’

Hon. Jude Njomo, having studied the cartel-like behavior of commercial banks and their high interest rates, deemed it appropriate to regulate the interest rates that banks charge in order to cushion the common man-Wanjiku. From what I gather, Wanjiku is a group of people at the bottom of the economic pyramid. Members of parliament therefore, deem it unfair and predatory for the banks to continue exploiting these members of the society. The attempt to cap interest rate is a third one since the last two decades. The other two attempts having been made by the former mp Joe Donde and Hon. Jakoyo Midiwo. The bill, now the Act addresses many things, among them interest rate capping. This is what this article is about. Many countries have tried capping interest rates including Zambia in 2013. The law has since been abolished. Around the world, approximately 76 countries have some sort of interest rate capping. Some sort because, not all interest rate capping work as the one we have enacted.

A study by Samuel Munzele Maimbo and Claudia Alejandra Henriquez Gallegos titled,
‘Interest Rate Caps around the World Still Popular, but a Blunt Instrument’ reports:
‘In this exercise, we found that the main reasons for using interest caps on loans were to protect consumers from excessive interest rates, to increase access to finance, and to make loans more affordable. Most countries regulate interest rates with the broad aim of protecting consumers, as in the case of Spain. Other countries provided more specific objectives, such as protecting the weakest parties (Portugal); shielding consumers from predatory lending and excessive interest rates (Belgium, France, the Kyrgyz Republic, Poland, the Slovak Republic, and the United Kingdom); stopping the abuses arising from too much freedom (Greece); controlling over-indebtedness (Estonia); and decreasing the risk-taking behavior of credit providers (the Netherlands). Similarly, in Thailand authorities stated that the purpose of the caps was to make finance affordable for low-income borrowers.3 Finally, Zambia’s authorities introduced the caps to mitigate the perceived risk of over indebtedness and the high cost of credit, as well as to enhance access to the underserved.
The Zambia law was abolished three months later.

WHAT INTEREST RESTRICTIONS WILL DO

There are two probable things that restricting interest rates will do. One, what the government tells us that will happen and the second happening is what economic theory supports. I will talk about both cases.

According to the government and the supporters of the law, low interest lending rates will increase access to credit by Micro, small and medium enterprises. It will also increase access to credit by families that could not afford credit facilities under a regime without the caps. This will boost productivity and ultimately improve economic growth. Jobs will be created and we shall be a few steps away from achieving a million jobs a year as promised by Jubilee. The government will also achieve greater financial inclusion rates for the Kenyan citizen.

On the other hand, interest rate floors set for saving deposits (deposit rate) will encourage a savings culture thereby ultimately, boosting our economic growth. After all, a saving economy is a growing economy. It is however, misleading to think that limiting deposit rates at 70% of CBR will encourage savings. According to the Central bank, the deposit rate as of April 2016 was 6.92% .With the new low; it will be at least 7%. I do not think a marginal increase of 0.08 will do anything to encourage savings. With the 6.92% of deposit rate, our saving rate is at a mere 1.4%. The interest rate floor will thus, have negligible effect, if any. Low lending rates encourage investment as well as consumption and both these activities are good for economic growth. By controlling deposit rates, the government will be able to arrest any inflationary pressure that would have occurred because of availability of cheap loans. Whereas these arguments are convincing, they are flawed.

However, according to economic theory, two scenarios are more likely to occur. First, availability of cheap loans will increase liquidity in the economy. The question that begs is what is the effect of an increase in money in circulation? An increase in money in circulation will automatically increase consumption. If the increase in money is not accompanied by a commensurate increase in production, as is likely to be the case in Kenya, there is likely to be inflation.

There will be too much money chasing too few goods! This inflationary pressure will lower the purchasing power of our money. The real value of our shilling will be eroded. For example, Ksh.1000 will buy less than it could have bought prior to interest rate restriction. As a result of this pressure, workers will demand more pay. This will cause industrial unrest and production will plunge further because of time wasted on pay negotiations.

If employers will agree to increase salaries, the cycle will continue. This policy therefore, creates a vicious cycle that is a zero-sum game.
The second likely event to occur according to economic theory is credit rationing. A key component of interest rate is the risk aspect. Banks generally weigh the risk profile of a client and adjust the rate accordingly before advancing a facility.

A client either has low risk profile or high risk profile. A client with a good credit history and a regular stream of income is less risky than a client who is probably borrowing for the first time. In a regime where interest rates have no upward limit, banks will accommodate the riskier client by adjusting the rates accordingly. On the other hand, if the rate has a cap, and the risk profile of a client cannot fit within this regime, the best alternative is to deny that client the facility all together.

These clients are SMEs and Wanjiku. Apparently, the very people this legislation intends to protect. From my experience, when someone wants money, the cost is not their priority. The priority is AVAILABILITY. And this is why; Shylocking is a thriving business in Kenya. This ‘locking out’ of potential borrowers, will lead to establishment of more informal lending businesses that are likely to exploit the public much more. The president notes this in his statement. Kenyans will be exploited much more by the unregulated sector of shylocks!

WHAT WORKS?

Spain is among the few countries that have a law similar to what the president assented to on August 24, 2016. Does it work? Whereas interest rates are low in Spain, studies show that it boasts of notoriously high charges. This means, what the banks cannot make through interest, they make through other charges. This is also a possibility. If these charges too, are capped, the banking industry is going to be a no-go zone for investors. Investors like to put their money where it generates the highest possible returns. Since the major role of management is to maximize shareholder value, caps limiting their ability to achieve this goal can only mean one thing: COST REDUCTION.

A huge percentage of total costs for many businesses are labour related and thus, banks may be forced to freeze hiring of new staff or reduce their workforce so as to continue making profits. Is this job creation? Banks are henceforth going to invest much more in technology and less in human labour in order to return value to shareholders.

The best alternative of handling the high interest rates would have been more of moral than legislative. For example, the government through CBK would have advised bank executives to set aside some percentage of their loan portfolio for SMEs and Wanjiku. This alternative accompanied by threats of legislation would have yielded much better results in the long run. We can think of this as setting up of EPZ in the manufacturing industry. In fact, the government could even decide to tax income generated from this portfolio at a lower rate or give it a tax holiday. This would boost credit access to the marginalized without interfering with the banks’ independence. This is more likely to stimulate economic growth and development. Controlling interest rates is sowing on a rock; the seeds will spring quickly because the soils are shallow. They will however, not live for long as they have no roots. Let’s sow in deep fertile soils. It may take long for the seeds to germinate, but when they do…they will grow to maturity and yield maybe thirty times or more of what we sow!
Finally, s I conclude, I would like to paraphrase Dr, Ndii, no amount of growling at critics is going to make foolish policy wise.

The writer Is a degree holder in Commerce, specializing in Finance from JKUAT And a hustler with ideas that can change the world.
Twitter: @pcmakokha | Facebook: PC Makokha | IG: PC Makokha

Disclaimer: This article expresses the author’s opinion only. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Kenya Insights or its Editors. We welcome opinion and views on topical issues. Email:[email protected]

August 29, 2016
President Uhuru Signs Into Law Banking Bill Capping Interests To 4pc Of Central Bank Rates

President Uhuru Kenyatta

Finally, after bustles and tussles around the matter with the Bankers pleading with the President not to sign into law the Interests rates amendments, Uhuru finally inked it into law. On July 28, 2016, the National Assembly passed the Banking (Amendment) Bill, 2015. The Bill intends to regulate interest rates that are applicable to banks’ loans and deposits, capping the interest rates that banks can charge on loans and must pay on deposits. The bill proposed a ceiling on loans at no more than four per cent of the Central Bank of Kenya’s recommended rate.

The Bill was then forwarded to the President for approval. “Since receiving this Bill, I have consulted widely, and it is evident to me from those consultations that Kenyans are disappointed and frustrated with the lack of sensitivity by the financial sector, particularly banks. These frustrations are centred around the cost of credit and the applicable interest rates on their hard-earned deposits. I share these concerns.” Says the President.

This is the third time that the National Assembly is attempting to reduce interest rates to affordable levels. In the previous two instances, dialogue and promises of change prevailed and banks avoided the introduction of these caps. In those instances, banks failed to live up to their promises and interest rates have continued to increase along with the spreads between the deposit and lending rates.

Despite having one of the most efficient and effective financial markets, Kenya has one of the highest returns-on-equity for banks in the African continent. Banks need to do more to reduce the cost of credit and ensure that the benefits of the vibrant financial sector are also felt by their customers.

The President has assented to the Bill as presented. The Government will now implement the new law, noting the difficulties that it would present, which include credit becoming unavailable to some consumers and the possible emergence of unregulated informal and exploitative lending mechanisms. This law is a win for borrowers who’ve had to repay dearly given existing borrowing rates as high as 21%. Now that the Bill will Cap interest rates at 4% above Central Bank Rates that is currently at 10.5%, Interests rates are expected to go down to 14.5%

August 24, 2016